An overview of challenges facing Pakistan after the 2018 elections. predominately the state of affairs of decline economic activity, it root causes and why? An excellent brief of overlooked critical areas which might have a negative affect and obstacles in achieving the objectives. A short but an eye opener for the fiscal economist. Do's and dont's. A birds eye view.

1. Some thoughts on economic activity and predictions
2019 the topic of value creation will become a vital concern of Pakistani policy makers, the
professions (especially accounting), directors, executives, economists and journalists. Synopsis
of my evaluated evidenced notions provides an interpretation of the assorted reasons for this
extrapolation
With the advent of new socio-economic- political system, stated in August 2018, financial crisis was
marked in 2018. Upon its birth there were flurries of articles asking if we had learned lessons from the
crash in 2008 and onwards, and had we fixed the problems. The question we should have been asking is
whether the system was ever likely to achieve progressively sustainable widely dispensed prosperity,
rather than trying to patch it up in illusions and experiments. “No”
The new mindset needed and cause of economics if it ever becomes a profession? Previously, when
thinking about the noble cause of strategic management as a profession, I discovered with something
similar but familiar - the creation of value construed in terms of continual shared affluence , where
affluence is defined in terms of human basic profuse and luxuriant..
If by mere a dreamy chance procures in theory sustainable commonly ‘thought’ prosperity is the strategic
intent of economics and system, consider the performance of the prevalent experimental system
connecting to that goal. I am sure and that an economic common sense one will have to construe or
deduce that even before the economic crisis evaluation and planning, it is deeply flawed. The crisis barely
underscores the ground realities and issues. And the only singular real proposition if a fundamental
rethinks and redesign. There is no point in planking a bandage on a fataldisease where it is not needed;
rather a rigorous creative and critical well designed outcome based treatment is essentially desired.
Unfortunately, policymakers have barely investigated the question of proportionate roles of government
and financial engine of the dead economic markets. And, “hardly any questioned the value of the
enormous quantitative magnitude of financial/economic sector activity we are carrying forward continuity
to have, or diagnose the risks of further impending big financial- socio and economic woes “real woes for
‘human flourishing’, the basic need and real indicator of any successful economic indicator and very
likely to get worse.
I would very blunt and precise on my very basic evaluative indicators without getting into details, though
I can with justifiable & calculative options. Browse through below some very elementary but most critical
elements and fill it in through some fundamental common sense.
 Foreign direct investments have fallen by $881M from July to November 2018 and still in steep
decline and trend still likely to continue in future.
 Circulars debt has risen by over 200% in last 12 months. How it will refinanced through all the
$’s funneled by KSA, China and others? Then what will be worth of those loans in billions which
will not be used or cannot be used to be utilized to expand the industrial base and productivity…
 The net effect of a very weak value of local currency, high utility cost, very pricey raw materials
and ever increasing high interest rates will only contribute to high cost exportable items. A total
contradiction of what actually needed. The most likely outcome is very little or no growth in
exports.
 No effective or direction on a workable framework of how to increase the manufacturing and
industrial infrastructure through lucrative incentives for both local & foreign investors. It’s more
‘ulcerative than lucrative’ at the moment and no end in sight.

2.  How far our current economic gurus will keep on boasting and bang on $ inputs from our friends
to put in centralbank to fill in the financial statements showing growth in $ reserves. Practical
and its productivity value = almost none, rather ‘negative’ in the long term.
 Without workable and sustainable drastic increase in economic activity and industrialization, a
financial collapse is inevitable. Manufacturing price index has increased and still galloping a fast
pace but its operational index has fallen more than whooping 45% and still has no fathoms.
 Who will and how the gigantic current account deficit is likely to be refinanced?
 No doable framework is devised or in place.
 Mini budgets and broadening the tax base is not the answer in strategic terms in conditions where
industrial output in nearly nonexistent. No inward FDIs,No foreign investor confidence. Un-
employment is nearly steep upward curve. All that money extracted will only be eaten away for
servicing foreign debts and nothing to invest in the Pakistan for real productivity growth.
 The formula is very simple to calculate. The left over money after refinancing the current
account deficit and servicing the foreign debts. One can have a real view of financial reserves and
liquidity needed to expand and broaden the industrial base to generate a meaningful GDP, GNP –
which should reflect through the lens of common man’s quality of life and sustainability. The
only defined indicator of economy’s strength.
 Enough economic growth and infrastructure has to develop where inflation is at minimum level
and employment on the rise with more income for everyone class of the society. Where people
can build their own shelter & security. Fancy and fudged financial/economic statements never
work; it is evident from the past performances.
 Downsizing in almost in every enterprise has become a practice. Big organizations can’t afford to
pay full salaries. Large banks in bad shape and lying off their best professionals. The very
qualified, experienced and internationally acknowledged professional in their respective fields are
without jobs or even started selling their assets to survive and in hope of a new Pakistan. Who can
afford to go abroad are leaving in bundles.
 There is no magic recipe, nor impossible to undo the worsening scenario. All is needed is a
developing a will visional ‘goal’ with an articulately calculated set of objectives and its well-
directed optimal path. Economic & fiscal value mapping with accurate and correct; goal
programing’ perimeters to form your strategy. And, it has to be done with agility. No time for
mistakes or complacent attitude – Agile decision making after carefully simulated scenarios to
pick up best doable and workable options deciphered from the assessed choices.
 The only option and priority is to rejuvenate and revamp our industrial base and other sectors,
innovation led economy and optimized value chain of our country. Even, $20B loans will be
eaten by the pacman without adequate high growth financial & economic activity.
One can go on and on but I think it should suffice as it is. The dream and slogan of any new
government to the people to bring prosperity through creating vast opportunities, low inflation,
more employment and increase in consumer power, is not likely to be realized as far I can see.
More pain to come for the poor masses,especially for the ever shrinking ‘middle & professional
class’, which is essentially the backbone on of any economic growth
We are stuck in both “high inflation & recession” – A draconian term in financial economics as
“Stagflation” A vicious spiral and a nightmare even for an ex proven guru, Mr. Alan Greenspan.
My assessment is not intended as a negatively biased criticism, but rather to be taken positively,
which we all true Pakistani people are looking forward to and have faith in it.

3. I hope the unemployed and ever increasing best brains of the country will be rewarded soon with
what they deserve. Most of them are now contemplating suicides. A sure sign of a total system
collapse, nepotism and unawareness. A? On the corporate governance
Contemplations:
Farooq Omar
https://www.linkedin.com/in/farooqomarr/