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Professional Logistics Group




         Oil & Natural Gas:
         The Evolving Freight
         Transportation Impacts
         Prepared for


          Rail Equipment Finance
          Conference 2013

         March 5, 2013   La Quinta, CA
                                         1
About PLG Consulting
»   Boutique consulting firm specializing in logistics, engineering, and
    supply chain
     Established in 2001
     Over 90 clients and 200 engagements


»   Headquarters in Chicago USA, with team members throughout
    the US and with “on the ground” experience in:
     North America / Europe / South America / Asia / Middle East


»   Consulting services
       Strategy & optimization
       Assessments & benchmarking
       Transportation assets & infrastructure
       Logistics operations
       M&A/investments/private equity


»   Key industry verticals:
       Oil & gas
       Chemicals & plastics
       Wind energy & project cargo
       Bulk commodities (minerals, mining, agricultural)
       Industrial manufactured goods
       Private equity

                                                                                       2
The Shale Development
                                                  Revolution – Big Picture




Hydraulic Fracking               Destination Markets           New Energy Paradigms



    New                              Key                         Continuous
Technologies           Capital                         Price
                                    Drivers                       Evolution


 Horizontal Drilling                  Logistics                    Rapid Change       3
Hydraulic Fracturing and
      Horizontal Drilling




                        4
Hydraulic Fracturing
                                                             Equipment Staging Area


                          Frac Tanks/Fluid Storage


                                                                                Data Van




                        Chemical Trucks



                                 Blender


                                                                        Pump Trucks


                                              Sand Storage
                                                  Unit




Source: JPTOnline.org                                                                      5
US Shale Plays




             6
Shale Driving Growth in Natural
                                          Gas and Crude Oil Production
»   1,762 rigs in operation as of February 13, 2013         U.S. Crude Oil Production

»   700% increase in shale gas production since 2007
»   Domestic oil production at 14-year high (6.9MM bbl/d)
»   “Unconventional” becomes “conventional” by 2015
                                                                                         Nov. 2012
                                                                                        6.89MM bpd


                                         GAS OIL THERMAL
                                                                                        Source: EIA 2012




                                                               Source: EIA 2012
                              Source: Baker Hughes 2013                                              7
Shale Development Supply Chain
                                                     and Downstream Impacts
    Inputs     >>     Wellhead >> Direct Output >> Thermal >> Fuels >> Raw Materials                 >> Downstream Products

                                                                                                            All Manufacturing

                                                       Generation                                                 Steel
                                                                              Process Feedstocks
     Proppants                                                                                            Fertilizer (Ammonia)
                                         Gas                   Home Heating (Propane)                          Methanol
      OCTG
                                                                     Other Fuels

    Chemicals                           NGLs
                                                                              Feedstock (Ethane)               Chemicals

       Water                                                                Byproduct (Condensate)
                                       Crude
                                                                                                           Petroleum Products
      Cement
                                                                                                            Petrochemicals
                                                                     Other Fuels

                                                                      Gasoline

»   Shale development impact on the railcar industry is long-term, wide-ranging, and positive with only one exception




                                                                                                                           8
Hydraulic Fracturing Materials
                              Inputs and Logistics – Per Well


                 Source to        Transloading to
Materials                                           Waste Water
               Transloading        Wellhead Site
                                                     ~500 Total
 Proppants          40                  160          Truckloads



OCTG (Pipe)         5                   20



 Chemicals          2                    8


Clean Water/                                        Oil/Gas/NGLs
               Local source           ~1,000
  Cement
                                                     Truck, Rail,
                47 Total           ~1,200 Total
                                                       Pipeline
                Railcars           Truckloads
                                                                    9
Correlation of Operating Rig Count
                                                                                         with Sand and Crude Shipments


                120,000                                                                                                                             2500

                                                                         Operating On Shore Rigs
                                                                         All Sand Carloads
                                                                         Petroleum Carloads
                100,000
                                                                                                                      1,9721,9481,965
                                                                                                                 1,911                               2000
                                                                                                                                     1,864
                                                1,814                                                       1,798
                                                                                                                                          1,7631,762
                                 1,695                                                            1,6651,691




                                                                                                                                                            Operating Onshore Rigs
                 80,000                                                                      1,604

                                                                                       1,467
Sand Carloads




                                                                                                                                                    1500

                                                           1,270                   1,299
                 60,000
                                                                               1,073
                                                                         939                                                                        1000
                                                                   886
                 40,000



                                                                                                                                                    500
                 20,000




                     0                                                                                                                              0
                          2007   Avg.    2008   Avg.       2009 Quarterly Data 2010                   2011                2012               2013
STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum)                Data sources: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes                                                                                   10
All Sand Handled by
                                                                              Railroad

                40,000


                35,000


                30,000


                25,000
     Carloads




                                                                                   BNSF
                                                                                   UP
                20,000
                                                                                   NS
                                                                                   CN
                15,000                                                             CPRS
                                                                                   CSXT
                10,000                                                             KCS


                 5,000


                    0
                         2008              2009     2010           2011    2012

                                                  Quarterly Data
STCC 14413       Source: US Rail Desktop                                                  11
Sand Mining Overcapacity:
             New Reality

    »   Growth in Wisconsin sand mining industry
        has slowed
         60 mine/processing operations proposed June 2011
          – June 2012
         Four (4) proposed June 2012 – January 2013



    »   Minnesota opposition to sand mining grows
         Pattison (Prairie du Chien, WI) asked to withdraw
          permit application
         MN state senate committee has passed a one-year
          mining moratorium



    »   Transportation costs continue to concern WI
        and MN sand shippers


    »   Established Illinois companies seeing
        significant upturns in volumes and financial
        returns


    »   Industry consolidation continues

                                                              12
Changes in Rail Shipment Pricing
                                                                                       2012 / 2013 - Sand


 »     Pricing spreads continue to widen between unit train and manifest
       shipments
       On a per-ton basis between Wisconsin and Texas, spreads are 17-29%



 »     Shippers who are willing to ship unit trains and make volume commitments
       have realized significant savings with longevity over public pricing


 »     Western carriers are driving single line hauls and encouraging longer trains
       to Eagle Ford via pricing differentials


 »     Canadian and Eastern carriers are aggressively working to grow their
       markets by providing very competitive pricing and securing sand
       originations
       CN/Superior Silica Sands – Poskin (Barron), WI



 »     Major sand providers establishing “in the play” transloading facilities to
       provide ready access to product
       U.S. Silica - East Liverpool, OH
       U.S. Silica – San Antonio, TX
       Potential 2nd facility under consideration in San Antonio, TX

Source: PLG analysis                                                                                   13
Processed Sand Total
                                                                     Delivered Cost

» Benchmark cost with well-executed                           » Potential for significant cost add-
  performance                                                   ons caused by strategic and
       Example unit train movement from Wisconsin to
        Texas with total delivered cost of approx. $180/ton     tactical issues
       Logistics drives ~60% of total delivered sand cost           Sub-optimal logistics network design or
                                                                      infrastructure
                                                                           Manifest service (rail)
                                                                           Multi-carrier vs. single line haul (rail)
                                                                           Equipment/driver shortages
                                                                     Poor planning and/or execution
                                                                           Rail and/or truck demurrage costs
                                                                        –   Performance penalties
                                                                     Uncompetitive sand price
                                                                     Poor sand quality




                               Source: PLG analysis                                                             14
Sand Railcar Market
                                                                             Conditions
»   New-build market has run its course
     Much smaller backlog
      –   3Q 2011: 10,000 cars, ten month wait
      –   Today: no significant wait
     Significant drop off from ~14,000 new cars per year
      –   2013 closer to 2,000-3,000 new cars
     No new spec building by lessors – all deal specific now
     Normalized pricing: older cars less expensive than new
     Some new cars going into storage

»   Lease market also post-peak
     Available inventory from multiple directions
      –   Lessors, builders, oversubscribed shippers
     Existing 286K cars available now
     Cars with sub-optimal specs (grain, <286K, cement) are being
      phased out of frac sand fleet
     Credit-worthiness an important criteria

»   Long-term horizon
     Some signs of activity in cement market may help offset
      remaining surplus of sand cars
     Optimism in industry that sand car demand will strengthen in
      Q3-Q4 2013

                                                                                       15
Shale Play Product
                                                   Flows Outbound

» Natural Gas
   Majority via pipelines, some trucks


» Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
   Requires processing (fractionation)
   3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet)
        –   Ethane         63%
        –   Propane        22%
        –   Butane          8%
        –   Pentane         5%
        –   Other           2%
        –   Condensate (liquid hydrocarbons)


» Crude Oil
   Bakken play as a model
   Surging Permian and Eagle Ford development

                                                                 16
Shale Development Natural
                                                        Gas Impacts - Thermal

» Industry a “victim of its own success”
    Fracking results in oversupply; gas prices down 50%
     since 2010
    Rigs leave Marcellus, other gas plays for oil plays
    Helped to deflate frac sand boom

» Significant displacement of coal for
  electricity generation
    Natural gas now supplying approx. 30% of thermal fuel       Source: EIA

     demand
    Adversely affecting coal industry, railroad coal loadings




                                                                  Source: NYMEX   17
Shale Related Rail Traffic Still
                                                                       Small Relative to Coal Volumes

                                       Rail Shipments: Coal, Sand & Crude
                    2,500,000

                    2,000,000
         Carloads




                    1,500,000

                    1,000,000

                      500,000

                                0                                                                  Sand
                                2008                                                               Crude
                                         2009                                                      Coal
                                                     2010

                                                                      2011

                                                                               2012

                                                           Quarterly Data


STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal)   Source: US Rail Desktop                          18
Coal, Crude & Sand Trends:
                                                                       Carloads and Revenue

                                 Coal Shipments                                        Crude & Sand Shipments
                                 Carloads   Revenue                                              Sand   Crude   Revenue
                           8                               $18                             400                        $2.0
               Millions




                                                                               Thousands
                                                                  Billions




                                                                                                                             Billions
                                                           $16                             350                        $1.8
                                                                                                                      $1.6
                          7.5                              $14                             300
                                                                                                                      $1.4
                                                           $12                             250                        $1.2
    Carloads




                           7
                                                           $10                             200                        $1.0

                                                                                           150                        $0.8
                                                           $8
                          6.5                                                                                         $0.6
                                                           $6                              100
                                                                                                                      $0.4
                                                           $4                              50                         $0.2
                           6
                                                           $2                               0                         $0.0

                          5.5                              $0
                                20082009201020112012

STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal)   Source: US Rail Desktop                                                        19
Shale Gas Driving US
                                                       Manufacturing Renaissance

»   Huge upside for domestic manufacturing from low-cost electricity
    generation
     “Re-shoring” due to low electricity prices
     Benefits ALL manufacturing in US


»   Certain industries that use natural gas as a feedstock poised for a
    renaissance
     Methanol
       –   16MM m/t new capacity under consideration
     Fertilizer
     Steel


»   Broad implications for a wide variety of railcar types




                                                                              20
Shale Gas Will Drive Steel
                                                                  Manufacturing Comeback in US

»   Shale gas boom makes direct-reduced iron steel economical
       DRI plants viable with growth in shale gas
       Not new technology, but preferable with lower cost natural gas
       DRI process uses natural gas in place of coal to produce iron
       Cost of production 20% lower per ton vs. traditional blast furnace


»   U.S. jobs and international investment
     Steel production in the U.S has shrunk 3.4% since 2008
        –   Compare to 14% growth in steel production internationally
        –   Domestic steel industry capacity running at 74%
     At least five new DRI steel plants being considered in the U.S. – now
      economical for the first time in 30 years due to low cost of natural gas
     Both domestic and international firms investing in the technology
     Initial investments create up to 500 jobs and 150 permanent employees


»   Reciprocal growth
     Increased demand for U.S. steel creates greater demand for U.S. gas
     Joint venture between Nucor Corp. and Encana Corp. commits $3 billion to
      development of new gas wells to support DRI plants
     DRI-derived steel of higher quality than that created from recycled scrap,
      further driving demand



                                                                                               21
Shale Gas Development
                                                                  Impact on Fertilizer Market

»   Natural gas is a feedstock for ammonia production

»   Lower gas prices directly benefit American farmers
     Increased demand for corn, soybeans has driven fertilizer costs higher
     Excess natural gas supply can be utilized to produce greater volumes of fertilizer
      more economically
     Economic advantage of domestic production vs. imports for the first time in 20+
      years due to low gas prices from fracking


»   Cheap U.S. natural gas means billions in investment for new
    domestic fertilizer plants, displacing imports
       Orascom/Iowa Fertilizer Company - Wever, IA
       CHS - Spiritwood, ND
       Ohio Valley Resources - Spencer County, IN
       Yara - Belle Plaine, SK Canada
       North Dakota Grain Growers Association - Williston Basin, ND
       CF Industries – expansions at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA
       PotashCorp - resumption of ammonia production at Geismar, LA
       Agrium – KY or MO (anticipated)


»   If new plant construction/expansions are completed, imports of
    nitrogen-based fertilizers could be reduced to “near zero” by 2018


                                                                                            22
Looking Ahead:
                                                                                                   Natural Gas
»   Factors that could revive demand and
    prices (>$4/MMbtu)
     Industrial use expansions come online over next 5
      years
     Continued toughening of EPA regulations of coal
     Historic import/export reversal of US/Canada
      natural gas flows by 2014 (Marcellus gas exports
      to Canada)
     Technology advancements for increased use of
      CNG as a transportation fuel                          Source: Union Gas, RBN Energy


»   Potential for LNG exports
     Political/policy battle between domestic industrial
      users and producers
     Sabine Pass, LA now permitted for exports; more
      terminals in application phase
     Expect only moderate volumes of LNG exports to
      be approved
      – Avoids exposure of natural gas to similar market
          forces that have affected oil
      – Useful foreign policy instrument for Executive
          Branch


»   Expect any significant revival of dry gas
    fracking to re-ignite frac sand car market,
    transportation
                                                            Source: Waterborne Energy Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu   23
Shale Development
                                                                                         NGL Impacts
»   Leading NGL and “wet gas” plays are Eagle Ford, Utica,
    Permian
     Significant investment and expansion of gathering, fractionation, and
      takeaway capacity underway in the Utica Play
     Takeaway capacity in Eagle Ford well exceeds current production (4x)


»   Requires fractionation facilities proximal to production
     “Y-grade” must be separated into purified products
     75% of fractionation capacity in US Gulf Coast
     Mt. Belvieu, TX major trading & storage hub


»   Similar to dry gas, strong production due to fracking has
                                                                                             HDPE Calculated Cost
    resulted in oversupply and depressed prices                                              2500
                                                                                             2000




                                                                                     $/Ton
                                                                                             1500
»   However, also similar to dry gas, abundant supplies have
    sparked chemical industry renaissance                                                    1000
     Ethane is “cracked” to make ethylene, the most basic building block in the              500
      chemicals supply chain                                                                    0
     Over $15B in new announced ethylene expansions will come on-line over
      the next five years, increasing capacity by 33% (11 MMmt)
     USA is now the low-cost producer of ethylene-based chemicals due to
      abundant supplies of ethane from shale plays (up to 60% raw materials
      cost advantage)
                                                                                   Sources: CMAI, TopLine Analytics, and Alembic analysis,
                                                                                   2012
                                                                                                                                             24
Natural Gas & Petrochemical
                                                       Downstream Products

                                                                                             Feedstock/
                                                                                            Intermediary
                Low-Density       Food packaging, film,                                       Finished
                Polyethylene    trash bags, diapers, toys
                                                                                              Products
                                  House wares, crates,
                High Density
                                 drums, food containers,
                Polyethylene
                                         bottles.
                                                                       Siding, windows,
                 Ethylene
                                Vinyl Chloride             PVC      frames, pipe, medical
                 Dichloride
                                                                            tubing

                                                      Antifreeze        Pantyhose,
Natural Gas,      Ethylene        Ethylene                            carpets, clothing
                                                        Fibers
    OIl            Oxide           Glycol
                                                           PET
                                                    Miscellaneous       Bottles, film

  Ethane,          Ethyl                              Polystyrene
                                   Styrene
Naphtha, etc.     Benzene                                  SAN        Insulation, cups
                                                           SBR

                   Linear                                Latex       Instrument lenses,
                                 Detergents                             house wares
  Ethylene        Alcohols                          Miscellaneous

                Vinyl Acetate                                            Tire, hose
                                 Adhesives, coatings, textile/
                                  paper. finishing, flooring          Medical gloves,
                Miscellaneous                                           carpeting,
                                                                         coatings
Looking Ahead: NGLs

»   The (somewhat) hidden Condensate story
     Used as diluent for heavy Canadian tar sands oil – critical for
      transportation as “Dilbit”
     Trades at ~$110/bbl at Edmonton
     Significant investment in infrastructure being made to deliver Eagle
      Ford, Utica condensate to Western Canada
     Primary delivery via pipeline, but major rail volumes ex. Utica are
      required to get to Midwest pipeline injection points
     Additional stressor on tight tank car supplies
     Demand expected to grow from 200 MMb/d to 500 MMb/d by 2020


»   Expect export market for NGLs to expand
                                                                                 Source: Canadian Energy Research Institute
     Pipeline reversals undertaken to meet demand, particularly ex. Utica to
      Sarnia, ON petrochemical complex and export storage and dock
      facilities in Philadelphia

»   Continued strong NGL production will drive chemical
    industry growth
     Domestic end-use of materials, i.e. plastics, will expand significantly
     Up to 40% of new petrochemical output will be for export
     New demand for plastic resin hoppers, specialty and pressure tank cars




                                                                                Source: MarkWest, Rextag                      26
Shale Development
                                                                              Crude Oil Impacts
»   Dramatic increases in
    US production due to
    fracking
     Projected to grow by ~30%
      over next four years
     Strong play in Bakken;
      surging Permian and Eagle
      Ford development


»   Decreasing dependency
    on foreign crude
                                     Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013     Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013
     Combination of US shale plus
      Canadian oil sands estimated
      to reduce imports to <15% by
      2020
     West African imports already
      down ~70% from 2010 levels


»   Rail critical to total
    crude market
     Bakken as case study



                                     Source: BENTEK Energy                                                             27
Bakken Oil Production –
                                                                                           History and Forecast


                  600000
                                                        ~704,000 BPD December 2012
                  500000


                  400000
Barrels Per Day




                  300000
                                                    First outbound
                                                    unit train
                  200000                            shipment
                                                    December, 2009
                  100000


                       0
                        1952   1962   1972         1982         1992        2002         2012
                                                  Year
Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources -      Source: North Dakota Oil and Gas Division January 2013
January 2013




                                                                                                                                                         28
Bakken Crude No Longer
                                                                  “Stranded” Due to Logistics

                                                                       ND Crude Production and Rail Transport
» Change in past 15 months                                 800,000

                                                           700,000
    November 2011:
                                                           600,000
     –   2012 Bakken discount vs. WTI have ranged from
                                                           500,000
         $8-12 bbl
                                                           400,000
     –   Undervalued due to logistics constraints
                                                           300,000
         “stranding” the oil
                                                           200,000
    January 2013:                                         100,000
     –   Bakken vs. WTI near even to ~$4 discount due to        0
         improved logistics                                    Dec. 2010     Dec. 2011       Jun-12        Aug-12        Oct-12   Dec-12

                                                                                 ND Production (bpd)     Crude by Rail (bpd)
                                                           Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, PLG analysis

» Significant expansion of crude by
  rail terminal capacities in 2011-
  2012, but slowing in 2013

    Increasing M&A activity, private equity
     interest in infrastructure




                                                                                                                                    29
                                                                                                                                    29
Crude Oil by Rail – North
                                                                 Dakota Terminals
                            (Existing by December 2012 and planned for 2013)
                                                                           Loading Capacity        Rail
          Facility                        Location
                                                                           (Barrels per Day)      Carrier
       Musket Corp                           Dore                                 60,000           BNSF
    Savage Services                         Trenton                               90,000           BNSF
    Red River Supply                       Williston                              10,000           BNSF
        Hess Oil                             Tioga                                60,000           BNSF
   Plains All American                      Manitou                               65,000           BNSF
Bakken Transload (Plains)                    Ross                          20,000 (65k Q2 2013)    BNSF
          EOG                               Stanley                               65,000           BNSF
    Basin Transload                           Zap                                 40,000           BNSF
   Bakken Oil Express                      Dickinson                             100,000           BNSF
         Enserco                           Gascoyne                        10,000 (60k Q2 2013)    BNSF
     Inergy Partners                        Epping                               120,000           BNSF
        Enbridge                           Berthold                        10,000 (60k Q2 2013)    BNSF
     Great Northern                         Fryburg                               65,000           BNSF

                                     BNSF Total Capacity                         715,000

          Global                           Stampede                               60,000            CP
       Dakota Plains                       New Town                               40,000            CP
    Plains All American                    Van Hook                        35,000 (65k Q2 2013)     CP

                                    CP Rail Total Capacity                       135,000

                                 Total Crude by Rail Capacity                    850,000
Source: PLG analysis                                                                                        30
North Dakota Class I Railroads
                                      and Crude Oil Terminals




        Map by PLG Consulting
Source: RBN Energy                                          31
                                                             31
Bakken Area
                                                                                                Outbound Pipelines
Current Capacity ( Q1 2013) - 440,000 bpd

Announced pipeline capacity expansions

Company                           Project                                 BBL's/day                Expected in
                                  Name                                    Capacity                 service date

Enbridge                          Berthold Expansion                      145,000                  1Q 2013
                                  Sandpiper                               225,000                  2016

Plains All American               Bakken North                            75,000                   1Q 2013

Saddle Butte                      High Prairie                            160,000                  1Q 2014

Oneok Partners                    Bakken Express                          200,000                  2015                         Bakken Express
                                                                                                                             ‘postponed’ November
                                                                                                                             30, 2012 due to lack of
Trans Canada                      Bakken Marketlink                       100,000                  2015                           subscription
                                  Keystone XL                             830,000                  2015?

                             Total New Pipelines:                         1,535,000
NEW pipeline capacity expected operational:
                             2013                                         220,000
                             2014                                         160,000
                             2015                                         325,000
                             TBD (K XL)                                   830,000
 Bpd = Barrels per Day   Source: PLG analysis, North Dakota Governors Pipeline Summit 2012, ND Pipeline Authority Jan 2013                       32
                                                                                                                                                 32
Bakken Production vs. Takeaway
                                                                    Capacity: 2012–2014 Projection




                                                                                            Total
                                                                                                         Excess
  Year        ND Production    Pipeline    Rail Terminal    Rail Carrier   ND Refinery   Outbound &
                                                                                                        Logistics
              Forecast (Bpd)   Capacity*    Capacity         Capacity      Consumption    Refinery
                                                                                                        Capacity
                                                                                          Capacity


 2012           700,000        460,000 670,000 1,200,000                    60,000       1,190,000 490,000
 2013           790,000        650,000 880,000 1,300,000                    60,000       1,590,000 800,000
 2014           860,000        900,000 880,000 1,350,000                    60,000       1,840,000 980,000
* Excludes Keystone XL                            Bpd = Barrels per Day                          Source: PLG Analysis




                                                                                                                        33
Crude Oil Pipelines –
                             Existing and Future




Source – CAPP Report 2011
                                                34
Crude Oil by Rail
                                                                                                                 vs. Pipeline

»   Current pipeline options ~ 30-45% lower
    cost vs. rail

»   Near-term offsetting rail advantages:
     Site permitting, construction is much quicker and easier

     Much lower capital cost and scalable

     Shorter contracts

     Transit to destination - 5-7 days via unit train vs. 30+
      days via pipeline (between Bakken and US Gulf Coast)

     Origin and destination flexibility/opportunistic to new
                                                                                       $16.00                                                    $14.70
                                                                                       $14.00
      markets                                                                                                     $11.50
                                                                 Dollars Per Barrel
                                                                                       $12.00                                     $10.50
»   Long-term challenges that will affect rail                                         $10.00

    volumes and margins:                                                                $8.00      $6.50
                                                                                        $6.00
     Pipeline expansions                                                               $4.00
                                                                                        $2.00
     Bakken-WTI price equilibrium
                                                                                          $-
     Any significant narrowing of price differential between                                     Pipeline to   Rail to Cushing Pipeline to Pt   Rail to Pt
                                                                                                   Cushing                         Arthur         Arthur
      Brent and WTI
                                                                                      Source: PLG analysis

                                                                                                                                                          35
Crude Oil by Rail
                                                               Volume Growth
                 50,000


                 45,000


                 40,000


                 35,000
      Carloads




                 30,000
                                                                          BNSF
                                                                          UP
                 25,000
                                                                          CPRS
                 20,000                                                   CN
                                                                          CSXT
                 15,000                                                   KCS
                                                                          NS
                 10,000


                  5,000


                     0

                          2008   2009    2010          2011      2012
                                        Quarterly Data
Source - US Rail Desktop
                                                                                 36
Shale Development Impact on
                                                                         Crude Oil Market Dynamics

                                                                                                   Destination
» Crude oil will find its way to market one way or                                                  Markets
  another
    Price differentials
                                                                                          Capita    Key          Price
     –   Bakken and WTI trading at ~$20/bbl less than Brent                                 l
                                                                                                   Drivers
     –   Alberta Bitumen trading at ~$40/bbl less than Brent
    E&P, midstream players willing to rapidly deploy significant
     capital to enable access                                                                       Logistics
     –   Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays
     –   New multi-modal terminals/trading hubs at destination markets (i.e.
         Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX, Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA)
     –   Lease and purchase of railcar fleets
     –   Pipeline expansions, reversals, new construction
    Refineries installing unit train receiving capability
     –   Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne imports (i.e.
         Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Anacortes, WA, Ferndale, WA)


» However, not all crudes are created equal
    Light/sweet vs. heavy/sour
     –   Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken, Permian, Niobrara,
         Permian) are light/sweet
     –   Heavy/sour crudes include Western Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, Alaska
         North Slope (ANS), Middle East (light/sour)
     –   Light/sweet requires less downstream processing
     –   Heavy/sour has higher sulfur content
                                                                                                                         37
                                                                                                                         37
     –   Bakken has higher gas, jet, and distillate yield than peer crudes
Shale Development Impact on Crude
                                                                           Oil Market Dynamics (continued)

»     Refineries are generally configured to run certain types of crude
       Significant investments made ($48B since 2005) at select refineries to install coker units that will allow processing of heavy/sour
       Major heavy/sour refining clusters: Corpus Christi, Houston, Chicago, southern Illinois, Ohio, West Coast

»     The special case of the Canada Oil Sands
         Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest and US Gulf Coast
         Pipeline capacity to US Midwest refining centers is at capacity
         As Canada waited for pipelines, Bakken built rail infrastructure to provide 50+% of takeaway capacity
         Pipeline developments to coasts, US markets still 2+ years away, while tank car supply constrains rail options
         Alberta producers’ opportunity cost at $60MM/day due to Bitumen discounting
         Province of Alberta receives 25% of its $40B annual budget from oil royalties




Source: PLG Consulting
                                                                                                                                              38
                                                                                                                                               38
Shale Development Impact on Crude
                                                                    Oil Market Dynamics (continued)


» The gusher of new US light/sweet shale oil production made possible by fracking
  has upended the traditional oil logistics and trading patterns
    Result: “Wrong place/wrong oil” supply displacements, i.e. Cushing overflow
    Rapid investment in new logistics infrastructure, routes, modes, and terminals
    The biggest current bottleneck: Railcars
     –   Current order backlog runs to 3Q 2014
     –   Major purchases by oil majors and midstream companies
     –   Extremely tight market with very high lease rates


» A “new normal” in crude oil flows will emerge in conjunction with continued North
  American oil production over the next five years




                                                                                                 39
                                                                                                 39
Looking Ahead: Crude Oil Production
                                                              Growth and Anticipated Product Flows


                                                                                                      = Light/Sweet
                                                                                                      = Heavy/Sour


             Oil Sands
               1,615
              +2,300                                    Bakken
                                                         704
                                                         +855




                                       Permian
                                         514
                                        +607

 = Storage terminal(s)
                                                                                                                                 = Pipeline
  = Refinery cluster –
  Sweet/Intermediate
                                        Eagle Ford                                                                               = Marine
  = Refinery cluster –                     352
   Sour/Intermediate                      +1,087
                                                                                                                                 = Rail

123      = Current b/d (000)
                                                                                                                                      40
+420     = Future b/d (000) additional by 2017       Source: BENTEK Energy, CAPP, Railroad Commission of Texas, PLG Consulting
The Shale Development Revolution – Big
                               Picture for the Railcar Industry




    Crude Cars                                            New Energy
                                                          Paradigms




                       Capital   Downstream      Price
Look Beyond Today                Opportunities           Expect Change



 Small Cube Hoppers                 Logistics             Rapid Change   41
Professional Logistics Group

                Thank You!
For follow up questions and information, please contact:
                     Taylor Robinson, President
          +1-508-982-1319 / trobinson@prologisticsgroup.com

                       Graham Brisben, CEO
          +1-708-386-0700 / gbrisben@prologisticsgroup.com

                     Jean Arndt, Vice President
           +1-630-505-0273 / jarndt@prologisticsgroup.com

                   Jeff Dowdell, Senior Consultant
          +1-732-995-6696 / jdowdell@prologisticsgroup.com

                  Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant
          +1-215-620-4247 / gheisler@prologisticsgroup.com

                  Jeff Rasmussen, Senior Consultant
         +1-317-379-5715 / jrasmussen@prologisticsgroup.com

                    Eric Lamy, Business Manager
           +1-508-633-3993 / elamy@prologisticsgroup.com

                      Jay Olberding, Analyst
         +1-636-399-5628 / jolberding@prologisticsgroup.com

                   This presentation is available at:
             WWW.PROLOGISTICSGROUP.COM                        42

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Plg refc presentation 030513 final

  • 1. Professional Logistics Group Oil & Natural Gas: The Evolving Freight Transportation Impacts Prepared for Rail Equipment Finance Conference 2013 March 5, 2013 La Quinta, CA 1
  • 2. About PLG Consulting » Boutique consulting firm specializing in logistics, engineering, and supply chain  Established in 2001  Over 90 clients and 200 engagements » Headquarters in Chicago USA, with team members throughout the US and with “on the ground” experience in:  North America / Europe / South America / Asia / Middle East » Consulting services  Strategy & optimization  Assessments & benchmarking  Transportation assets & infrastructure  Logistics operations  M&A/investments/private equity » Key industry verticals:  Oil & gas  Chemicals & plastics  Wind energy & project cargo  Bulk commodities (minerals, mining, agricultural)  Industrial manufactured goods  Private equity 2
  • 3. The Shale Development Revolution – Big Picture Hydraulic Fracking Destination Markets New Energy Paradigms New Key Continuous Technologies Capital Price Drivers Evolution Horizontal Drilling Logistics Rapid Change 3
  • 4. Hydraulic Fracturing and Horizontal Drilling 4
  • 5. Hydraulic Fracturing Equipment Staging Area Frac Tanks/Fluid Storage Data Van Chemical Trucks Blender Pump Trucks Sand Storage Unit Source: JPTOnline.org 5
  • 7. Shale Driving Growth in Natural Gas and Crude Oil Production » 1,762 rigs in operation as of February 13, 2013 U.S. Crude Oil Production » 700% increase in shale gas production since 2007 » Domestic oil production at 14-year high (6.9MM bbl/d) » “Unconventional” becomes “conventional” by 2015 Nov. 2012 6.89MM bpd GAS OIL THERMAL Source: EIA 2012 Source: EIA 2012 Source: Baker Hughes 2013 7
  • 8. Shale Development Supply Chain and Downstream Impacts Inputs >> Wellhead >> Direct Output >> Thermal >> Fuels >> Raw Materials >> Downstream Products All Manufacturing Generation Steel Process Feedstocks Proppants Fertilizer (Ammonia) Gas Home Heating (Propane) Methanol OCTG Other Fuels Chemicals NGLs Feedstock (Ethane) Chemicals Water Byproduct (Condensate) Crude Petroleum Products Cement Petrochemicals Other Fuels Gasoline » Shale development impact on the railcar industry is long-term, wide-ranging, and positive with only one exception 8
  • 9. Hydraulic Fracturing Materials Inputs and Logistics – Per Well Source to Transloading to Materials Waste Water Transloading Wellhead Site ~500 Total Proppants 40 160 Truckloads OCTG (Pipe) 5 20 Chemicals 2 8 Clean Water/ Oil/Gas/NGLs Local source ~1,000 Cement Truck, Rail, 47 Total ~1,200 Total Pipeline Railcars Truckloads 9
  • 10. Correlation of Operating Rig Count with Sand and Crude Shipments 120,000 2500 Operating On Shore Rigs All Sand Carloads Petroleum Carloads 100,000 1,9721,9481,965 1,911 2000 1,864 1,814 1,798 1,7631,762 1,695 1,6651,691 Operating Onshore Rigs 80,000 1,604 1,467 Sand Carloads 1500 1,270 1,299 60,000 1,073 939 1000 886 40,000 500 20,000 0 0 2007 Avg. 2008 Avg. 2009 Quarterly Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Data sources: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes 10
  • 11. All Sand Handled by Railroad 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Carloads BNSF UP 20,000 NS CN 15,000 CPRS CSXT 10,000 KCS 5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Quarterly Data STCC 14413 Source: US Rail Desktop 11
  • 12. Sand Mining Overcapacity: New Reality » Growth in Wisconsin sand mining industry has slowed  60 mine/processing operations proposed June 2011 – June 2012  Four (4) proposed June 2012 – January 2013 » Minnesota opposition to sand mining grows  Pattison (Prairie du Chien, WI) asked to withdraw permit application  MN state senate committee has passed a one-year mining moratorium » Transportation costs continue to concern WI and MN sand shippers » Established Illinois companies seeing significant upturns in volumes and financial returns » Industry consolidation continues 12
  • 13. Changes in Rail Shipment Pricing 2012 / 2013 - Sand » Pricing spreads continue to widen between unit train and manifest shipments  On a per-ton basis between Wisconsin and Texas, spreads are 17-29% » Shippers who are willing to ship unit trains and make volume commitments have realized significant savings with longevity over public pricing » Western carriers are driving single line hauls and encouraging longer trains to Eagle Ford via pricing differentials » Canadian and Eastern carriers are aggressively working to grow their markets by providing very competitive pricing and securing sand originations  CN/Superior Silica Sands – Poskin (Barron), WI » Major sand providers establishing “in the play” transloading facilities to provide ready access to product  U.S. Silica - East Liverpool, OH  U.S. Silica – San Antonio, TX  Potential 2nd facility under consideration in San Antonio, TX Source: PLG analysis 13
  • 14. Processed Sand Total Delivered Cost » Benchmark cost with well-executed » Potential for significant cost add- performance ons caused by strategic and  Example unit train movement from Wisconsin to Texas with total delivered cost of approx. $180/ton tactical issues  Logistics drives ~60% of total delivered sand cost  Sub-optimal logistics network design or infrastructure  Manifest service (rail)  Multi-carrier vs. single line haul (rail)  Equipment/driver shortages  Poor planning and/or execution  Rail and/or truck demurrage costs – Performance penalties  Uncompetitive sand price  Poor sand quality Source: PLG analysis 14
  • 15. Sand Railcar Market Conditions » New-build market has run its course  Much smaller backlog – 3Q 2011: 10,000 cars, ten month wait – Today: no significant wait  Significant drop off from ~14,000 new cars per year – 2013 closer to 2,000-3,000 new cars  No new spec building by lessors – all deal specific now  Normalized pricing: older cars less expensive than new  Some new cars going into storage » Lease market also post-peak  Available inventory from multiple directions – Lessors, builders, oversubscribed shippers  Existing 286K cars available now  Cars with sub-optimal specs (grain, <286K, cement) are being phased out of frac sand fleet  Credit-worthiness an important criteria » Long-term horizon  Some signs of activity in cement market may help offset remaining surplus of sand cars  Optimism in industry that sand car demand will strengthen in Q3-Q4 2013 15
  • 16. Shale Play Product Flows Outbound » Natural Gas  Majority via pipelines, some trucks » Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)  Requires processing (fractionation)  3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet) – Ethane 63% – Propane 22% – Butane 8% – Pentane 5% – Other 2% – Condensate (liquid hydrocarbons) » Crude Oil  Bakken play as a model  Surging Permian and Eagle Ford development 16
  • 17. Shale Development Natural Gas Impacts - Thermal » Industry a “victim of its own success”  Fracking results in oversupply; gas prices down 50% since 2010  Rigs leave Marcellus, other gas plays for oil plays  Helped to deflate frac sand boom » Significant displacement of coal for electricity generation  Natural gas now supplying approx. 30% of thermal fuel Source: EIA demand  Adversely affecting coal industry, railroad coal loadings Source: NYMEX 17
  • 18. Shale Related Rail Traffic Still Small Relative to Coal Volumes Rail Shipments: Coal, Sand & Crude 2,500,000 2,000,000 Carloads 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Sand 2008 Crude 2009 Coal 2010 2011 2012 Quarterly Data STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop 18
  • 19. Coal, Crude & Sand Trends: Carloads and Revenue Coal Shipments Crude & Sand Shipments Carloads Revenue Sand Crude Revenue 8 $18 400 $2.0 Millions Thousands Billions Billions $16 350 $1.8 $1.6 7.5 $14 300 $1.4 $12 250 $1.2 Carloads 7 $10 200 $1.0 150 $0.8 $8 6.5 $0.6 $6 100 $0.4 $4 50 $0.2 6 $2 0 $0.0 5.5 $0 20082009201020112012 STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop 19
  • 20. Shale Gas Driving US Manufacturing Renaissance » Huge upside for domestic manufacturing from low-cost electricity generation  “Re-shoring” due to low electricity prices  Benefits ALL manufacturing in US » Certain industries that use natural gas as a feedstock poised for a renaissance  Methanol – 16MM m/t new capacity under consideration  Fertilizer  Steel » Broad implications for a wide variety of railcar types 20
  • 21. Shale Gas Will Drive Steel Manufacturing Comeback in US » Shale gas boom makes direct-reduced iron steel economical  DRI plants viable with growth in shale gas  Not new technology, but preferable with lower cost natural gas  DRI process uses natural gas in place of coal to produce iron  Cost of production 20% lower per ton vs. traditional blast furnace » U.S. jobs and international investment  Steel production in the U.S has shrunk 3.4% since 2008 – Compare to 14% growth in steel production internationally – Domestic steel industry capacity running at 74%  At least five new DRI steel plants being considered in the U.S. – now economical for the first time in 30 years due to low cost of natural gas  Both domestic and international firms investing in the technology  Initial investments create up to 500 jobs and 150 permanent employees » Reciprocal growth  Increased demand for U.S. steel creates greater demand for U.S. gas  Joint venture between Nucor Corp. and Encana Corp. commits $3 billion to development of new gas wells to support DRI plants  DRI-derived steel of higher quality than that created from recycled scrap, further driving demand 21
  • 22. Shale Gas Development Impact on Fertilizer Market » Natural gas is a feedstock for ammonia production » Lower gas prices directly benefit American farmers  Increased demand for corn, soybeans has driven fertilizer costs higher  Excess natural gas supply can be utilized to produce greater volumes of fertilizer more economically  Economic advantage of domestic production vs. imports for the first time in 20+ years due to low gas prices from fracking » Cheap U.S. natural gas means billions in investment for new domestic fertilizer plants, displacing imports  Orascom/Iowa Fertilizer Company - Wever, IA  CHS - Spiritwood, ND  Ohio Valley Resources - Spencer County, IN  Yara - Belle Plaine, SK Canada  North Dakota Grain Growers Association - Williston Basin, ND  CF Industries – expansions at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA  PotashCorp - resumption of ammonia production at Geismar, LA  Agrium – KY or MO (anticipated) » If new plant construction/expansions are completed, imports of nitrogen-based fertilizers could be reduced to “near zero” by 2018 22
  • 23. Looking Ahead: Natural Gas » Factors that could revive demand and prices (>$4/MMbtu)  Industrial use expansions come online over next 5 years  Continued toughening of EPA regulations of coal  Historic import/export reversal of US/Canada natural gas flows by 2014 (Marcellus gas exports to Canada)  Technology advancements for increased use of CNG as a transportation fuel Source: Union Gas, RBN Energy » Potential for LNG exports  Political/policy battle between domestic industrial users and producers  Sabine Pass, LA now permitted for exports; more terminals in application phase  Expect only moderate volumes of LNG exports to be approved – Avoids exposure of natural gas to similar market forces that have affected oil – Useful foreign policy instrument for Executive Branch » Expect any significant revival of dry gas fracking to re-ignite frac sand car market, transportation Source: Waterborne Energy Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu 23
  • 24. Shale Development NGL Impacts » Leading NGL and “wet gas” plays are Eagle Ford, Utica, Permian  Significant investment and expansion of gathering, fractionation, and takeaway capacity underway in the Utica Play  Takeaway capacity in Eagle Ford well exceeds current production (4x) » Requires fractionation facilities proximal to production  “Y-grade” must be separated into purified products  75% of fractionation capacity in US Gulf Coast  Mt. Belvieu, TX major trading & storage hub » Similar to dry gas, strong production due to fracking has HDPE Calculated Cost resulted in oversupply and depressed prices 2500 2000 $/Ton 1500 » However, also similar to dry gas, abundant supplies have sparked chemical industry renaissance 1000  Ethane is “cracked” to make ethylene, the most basic building block in the 500 chemicals supply chain 0  Over $15B in new announced ethylene expansions will come on-line over the next five years, increasing capacity by 33% (11 MMmt)  USA is now the low-cost producer of ethylene-based chemicals due to abundant supplies of ethane from shale plays (up to 60% raw materials cost advantage) Sources: CMAI, TopLine Analytics, and Alembic analysis, 2012 24
  • 25. Natural Gas & Petrochemical Downstream Products Feedstock/ Intermediary Low-Density Food packaging, film, Finished Polyethylene trash bags, diapers, toys Products House wares, crates, High Density drums, food containers, Polyethylene bottles. Siding, windows, Ethylene Vinyl Chloride PVC frames, pipe, medical Dichloride tubing Antifreeze Pantyhose, Natural Gas, Ethylene Ethylene carpets, clothing Fibers OIl Oxide Glycol PET Miscellaneous Bottles, film Ethane, Ethyl Polystyrene Styrene Naphtha, etc. Benzene SAN Insulation, cups SBR Linear Latex Instrument lenses, Detergents house wares Ethylene Alcohols Miscellaneous Vinyl Acetate Tire, hose Adhesives, coatings, textile/ paper. finishing, flooring Medical gloves, Miscellaneous carpeting, coatings
  • 26. Looking Ahead: NGLs » The (somewhat) hidden Condensate story  Used as diluent for heavy Canadian tar sands oil – critical for transportation as “Dilbit”  Trades at ~$110/bbl at Edmonton  Significant investment in infrastructure being made to deliver Eagle Ford, Utica condensate to Western Canada  Primary delivery via pipeline, but major rail volumes ex. Utica are required to get to Midwest pipeline injection points  Additional stressor on tight tank car supplies  Demand expected to grow from 200 MMb/d to 500 MMb/d by 2020 » Expect export market for NGLs to expand Source: Canadian Energy Research Institute  Pipeline reversals undertaken to meet demand, particularly ex. Utica to Sarnia, ON petrochemical complex and export storage and dock facilities in Philadelphia » Continued strong NGL production will drive chemical industry growth  Domestic end-use of materials, i.e. plastics, will expand significantly  Up to 40% of new petrochemical output will be for export  New demand for plastic resin hoppers, specialty and pressure tank cars Source: MarkWest, Rextag 26
  • 27. Shale Development Crude Oil Impacts » Dramatic increases in US production due to fracking  Projected to grow by ~30% over next four years  Strong play in Bakken; surging Permian and Eagle Ford development » Decreasing dependency on foreign crude Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013 Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013  Combination of US shale plus Canadian oil sands estimated to reduce imports to <15% by 2020  West African imports already down ~70% from 2010 levels » Rail critical to total crude market  Bakken as case study Source: BENTEK Energy 27
  • 28. Bakken Oil Production – History and Forecast 600000 ~704,000 BPD December 2012 500000 400000 Barrels Per Day 300000 First outbound unit train 200000 shipment December, 2009 100000 0 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 Year Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources - Source: North Dakota Oil and Gas Division January 2013 January 2013 28
  • 29. Bakken Crude No Longer “Stranded” Due to Logistics ND Crude Production and Rail Transport » Change in past 15 months 800,000 700,000  November 2011: 600,000 – 2012 Bakken discount vs. WTI have ranged from 500,000 $8-12 bbl 400,000 – Undervalued due to logistics constraints 300,000 “stranding” the oil 200,000  January 2013: 100,000 – Bakken vs. WTI near even to ~$4 discount due to 0 improved logistics Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 ND Production (bpd) Crude by Rail (bpd) Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, PLG analysis » Significant expansion of crude by rail terminal capacities in 2011- 2012, but slowing in 2013  Increasing M&A activity, private equity interest in infrastructure 29 29
  • 30. Crude Oil by Rail – North Dakota Terminals (Existing by December 2012 and planned for 2013) Loading Capacity Rail Facility Location (Barrels per Day) Carrier Musket Corp Dore 60,000 BNSF Savage Services Trenton 90,000 BNSF Red River Supply Williston 10,000 BNSF Hess Oil Tioga 60,000 BNSF Plains All American Manitou 65,000 BNSF Bakken Transload (Plains) Ross 20,000 (65k Q2 2013) BNSF EOG Stanley 65,000 BNSF Basin Transload Zap 40,000 BNSF Bakken Oil Express Dickinson 100,000 BNSF Enserco Gascoyne 10,000 (60k Q2 2013) BNSF Inergy Partners Epping 120,000 BNSF Enbridge Berthold 10,000 (60k Q2 2013) BNSF Great Northern Fryburg 65,000 BNSF BNSF Total Capacity 715,000 Global Stampede 60,000 CP Dakota Plains New Town 40,000 CP Plains All American Van Hook 35,000 (65k Q2 2013) CP CP Rail Total Capacity 135,000 Total Crude by Rail Capacity 850,000 Source: PLG analysis 30
  • 31. North Dakota Class I Railroads and Crude Oil Terminals Map by PLG Consulting Source: RBN Energy 31 31
  • 32. Bakken Area Outbound Pipelines Current Capacity ( Q1 2013) - 440,000 bpd Announced pipeline capacity expansions Company Project BBL's/day Expected in Name Capacity service date Enbridge Berthold Expansion 145,000 1Q 2013 Sandpiper 225,000 2016 Plains All American Bakken North 75,000 1Q 2013 Saddle Butte High Prairie 160,000 1Q 2014 Oneok Partners Bakken Express 200,000 2015 Bakken Express ‘postponed’ November 30, 2012 due to lack of Trans Canada Bakken Marketlink 100,000 2015 subscription Keystone XL 830,000 2015? Total New Pipelines: 1,535,000 NEW pipeline capacity expected operational: 2013 220,000 2014 160,000 2015 325,000 TBD (K XL) 830,000 Bpd = Barrels per Day Source: PLG analysis, North Dakota Governors Pipeline Summit 2012, ND Pipeline Authority Jan 2013 32 32
  • 33. Bakken Production vs. Takeaway Capacity: 2012–2014 Projection Total Excess Year ND Production Pipeline Rail Terminal Rail Carrier ND Refinery Outbound & Logistics Forecast (Bpd) Capacity* Capacity Capacity Consumption Refinery Capacity Capacity 2012 700,000 460,000 670,000 1,200,000 60,000 1,190,000 490,000 2013 790,000 650,000 880,000 1,300,000 60,000 1,590,000 800,000 2014 860,000 900,000 880,000 1,350,000 60,000 1,840,000 980,000 * Excludes Keystone XL Bpd = Barrels per Day Source: PLG Analysis 33
  • 34. Crude Oil Pipelines – Existing and Future Source – CAPP Report 2011 34
  • 35. Crude Oil by Rail vs. Pipeline » Current pipeline options ~ 30-45% lower cost vs. rail » Near-term offsetting rail advantages:  Site permitting, construction is much quicker and easier  Much lower capital cost and scalable  Shorter contracts  Transit to destination - 5-7 days via unit train vs. 30+ days via pipeline (between Bakken and US Gulf Coast)  Origin and destination flexibility/opportunistic to new $16.00 $14.70 $14.00 markets $11.50 Dollars Per Barrel $12.00 $10.50 » Long-term challenges that will affect rail $10.00 volumes and margins: $8.00 $6.50 $6.00  Pipeline expansions $4.00 $2.00  Bakken-WTI price equilibrium $-  Any significant narrowing of price differential between Pipeline to Rail to Cushing Pipeline to Pt Rail to Pt Cushing Arthur Arthur Brent and WTI Source: PLG analysis 35
  • 36. Crude Oil by Rail Volume Growth 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Carloads 30,000 BNSF UP 25,000 CPRS 20,000 CN CSXT 15,000 KCS NS 10,000 5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Quarterly Data Source - US Rail Desktop 36
  • 37. Shale Development Impact on Crude Oil Market Dynamics Destination » Crude oil will find its way to market one way or Markets another  Price differentials Capita Key Price – Bakken and WTI trading at ~$20/bbl less than Brent l Drivers – Alberta Bitumen trading at ~$40/bbl less than Brent  E&P, midstream players willing to rapidly deploy significant capital to enable access Logistics – Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays – New multi-modal terminals/trading hubs at destination markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX, Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA) – Lease and purchase of railcar fleets – Pipeline expansions, reversals, new construction  Refineries installing unit train receiving capability – Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Anacortes, WA, Ferndale, WA) » However, not all crudes are created equal  Light/sweet vs. heavy/sour – Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Permian) are light/sweet – Heavy/sour crudes include Western Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, Alaska North Slope (ANS), Middle East (light/sour) – Light/sweet requires less downstream processing – Heavy/sour has higher sulfur content 37 37 – Bakken has higher gas, jet, and distillate yield than peer crudes
  • 38. Shale Development Impact on Crude Oil Market Dynamics (continued) » Refineries are generally configured to run certain types of crude  Significant investments made ($48B since 2005) at select refineries to install coker units that will allow processing of heavy/sour  Major heavy/sour refining clusters: Corpus Christi, Houston, Chicago, southern Illinois, Ohio, West Coast » The special case of the Canada Oil Sands  Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest and US Gulf Coast  Pipeline capacity to US Midwest refining centers is at capacity  As Canada waited for pipelines, Bakken built rail infrastructure to provide 50+% of takeaway capacity  Pipeline developments to coasts, US markets still 2+ years away, while tank car supply constrains rail options  Alberta producers’ opportunity cost at $60MM/day due to Bitumen discounting  Province of Alberta receives 25% of its $40B annual budget from oil royalties Source: PLG Consulting 38 38
  • 39. Shale Development Impact on Crude Oil Market Dynamics (continued) » The gusher of new US light/sweet shale oil production made possible by fracking has upended the traditional oil logistics and trading patterns  Result: “Wrong place/wrong oil” supply displacements, i.e. Cushing overflow  Rapid investment in new logistics infrastructure, routes, modes, and terminals  The biggest current bottleneck: Railcars – Current order backlog runs to 3Q 2014 – Major purchases by oil majors and midstream companies – Extremely tight market with very high lease rates » A “new normal” in crude oil flows will emerge in conjunction with continued North American oil production over the next five years 39 39
  • 40. Looking Ahead: Crude Oil Production Growth and Anticipated Product Flows = Light/Sweet = Heavy/Sour Oil Sands 1,615 +2,300 Bakken 704 +855 Permian 514 +607 = Storage terminal(s) = Pipeline = Refinery cluster – Sweet/Intermediate Eagle Ford = Marine = Refinery cluster – 352 Sour/Intermediate +1,087 = Rail 123 = Current b/d (000) 40 +420 = Future b/d (000) additional by 2017 Source: BENTEK Energy, CAPP, Railroad Commission of Texas, PLG Consulting
  • 41. The Shale Development Revolution – Big Picture for the Railcar Industry Crude Cars New Energy Paradigms Capital Downstream Price Look Beyond Today Opportunities Expect Change Small Cube Hoppers Logistics Rapid Change 41
  • 42. Professional Logistics Group Thank You! For follow up questions and information, please contact: Taylor Robinson, President +1-508-982-1319 / trobinson@prologisticsgroup.com Graham Brisben, CEO +1-708-386-0700 / gbrisben@prologisticsgroup.com Jean Arndt, Vice President +1-630-505-0273 / jarndt@prologisticsgroup.com Jeff Dowdell, Senior Consultant +1-732-995-6696 / jdowdell@prologisticsgroup.com Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant +1-215-620-4247 / gheisler@prologisticsgroup.com Jeff Rasmussen, Senior Consultant +1-317-379-5715 / jrasmussen@prologisticsgroup.com Eric Lamy, Business Manager +1-508-633-3993 / elamy@prologisticsgroup.com Jay Olberding, Analyst +1-636-399-5628 / jolberding@prologisticsgroup.com This presentation is available at: WWW.PROLOGISTICSGROUP.COM 42