1. Professional Logistics Group
Oil & Natural Gas:
The Evolving Freight
Transportation Impacts
Prepared for
Rail Equipment Finance
Conference 2013
March 5, 2013 La Quinta, CA
1
2. About PLG Consulting
» Boutique consulting firm specializing in logistics, engineering, and
supply chain
Established in 2001
Over 90 clients and 200 engagements
» Headquarters in Chicago USA, with team members throughout
the US and with “on the ground” experience in:
North America / Europe / South America / Asia / Middle East
» Consulting services
Strategy & optimization
Assessments & benchmarking
Transportation assets & infrastructure
Logistics operations
M&A/investments/private equity
» Key industry verticals:
Oil & gas
Chemicals & plastics
Wind energy & project cargo
Bulk commodities (minerals, mining, agricultural)
Industrial manufactured goods
Private equity
2
3. The Shale Development
Revolution – Big Picture
Hydraulic Fracking Destination Markets New Energy Paradigms
New Key Continuous
Technologies Capital Price
Drivers Evolution
Horizontal Drilling Logistics Rapid Change 3
5. Hydraulic Fracturing
Equipment Staging Area
Frac Tanks/Fluid Storage
Data Van
Chemical Trucks
Blender
Pump Trucks
Sand Storage
Unit
Source: JPTOnline.org 5
7. Shale Driving Growth in Natural
Gas and Crude Oil Production
» 1,762 rigs in operation as of February 13, 2013 U.S. Crude Oil Production
» 700% increase in shale gas production since 2007
» Domestic oil production at 14-year high (6.9MM bbl/d)
» “Unconventional” becomes “conventional” by 2015
Nov. 2012
6.89MM bpd
GAS OIL THERMAL
Source: EIA 2012
Source: EIA 2012
Source: Baker Hughes 2013 7
8. Shale Development Supply Chain
and Downstream Impacts
Inputs >> Wellhead >> Direct Output >> Thermal >> Fuels >> Raw Materials >> Downstream Products
All Manufacturing
Generation Steel
Process Feedstocks
Proppants Fertilizer (Ammonia)
Gas Home Heating (Propane) Methanol
OCTG
Other Fuels
Chemicals NGLs
Feedstock (Ethane) Chemicals
Water Byproduct (Condensate)
Crude
Petroleum Products
Cement
Petrochemicals
Other Fuels
Gasoline
» Shale development impact on the railcar industry is long-term, wide-ranging, and positive with only one exception
8
9. Hydraulic Fracturing Materials
Inputs and Logistics – Per Well
Source to Transloading to
Materials Waste Water
Transloading Wellhead Site
~500 Total
Proppants 40 160 Truckloads
OCTG (Pipe) 5 20
Chemicals 2 8
Clean Water/ Oil/Gas/NGLs
Local source ~1,000
Cement
Truck, Rail,
47 Total ~1,200 Total
Pipeline
Railcars Truckloads
9
10. Correlation of Operating Rig Count
with Sand and Crude Shipments
120,000 2500
Operating On Shore Rigs
All Sand Carloads
Petroleum Carloads
100,000
1,9721,9481,965
1,911 2000
1,864
1,814 1,798
1,7631,762
1,695 1,6651,691
Operating Onshore Rigs
80,000 1,604
1,467
Sand Carloads
1500
1,270 1,299
60,000
1,073
939 1000
886
40,000
500
20,000
0 0
2007 Avg. 2008 Avg. 2009 Quarterly Data 2010 2011 2012 2013
STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Data sources: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes 10
11. All Sand Handled by
Railroad
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
Carloads
BNSF
UP
20,000
NS
CN
15,000 CPRS
CSXT
10,000 KCS
5,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Quarterly Data
STCC 14413 Source: US Rail Desktop 11
12. Sand Mining Overcapacity:
New Reality
» Growth in Wisconsin sand mining industry
has slowed
60 mine/processing operations proposed June 2011
– June 2012
Four (4) proposed June 2012 – January 2013
» Minnesota opposition to sand mining grows
Pattison (Prairie du Chien, WI) asked to withdraw
permit application
MN state senate committee has passed a one-year
mining moratorium
» Transportation costs continue to concern WI
and MN sand shippers
» Established Illinois companies seeing
significant upturns in volumes and financial
returns
» Industry consolidation continues
12
13. Changes in Rail Shipment Pricing
2012 / 2013 - Sand
» Pricing spreads continue to widen between unit train and manifest
shipments
On a per-ton basis between Wisconsin and Texas, spreads are 17-29%
» Shippers who are willing to ship unit trains and make volume commitments
have realized significant savings with longevity over public pricing
» Western carriers are driving single line hauls and encouraging longer trains
to Eagle Ford via pricing differentials
» Canadian and Eastern carriers are aggressively working to grow their
markets by providing very competitive pricing and securing sand
originations
CN/Superior Silica Sands – Poskin (Barron), WI
» Major sand providers establishing “in the play” transloading facilities to
provide ready access to product
U.S. Silica - East Liverpool, OH
U.S. Silica – San Antonio, TX
Potential 2nd facility under consideration in San Antonio, TX
Source: PLG analysis 13
14. Processed Sand Total
Delivered Cost
» Benchmark cost with well-executed » Potential for significant cost add-
performance ons caused by strategic and
Example unit train movement from Wisconsin to
Texas with total delivered cost of approx. $180/ton tactical issues
Logistics drives ~60% of total delivered sand cost Sub-optimal logistics network design or
infrastructure
Manifest service (rail)
Multi-carrier vs. single line haul (rail)
Equipment/driver shortages
Poor planning and/or execution
Rail and/or truck demurrage costs
– Performance penalties
Uncompetitive sand price
Poor sand quality
Source: PLG analysis 14
15. Sand Railcar Market
Conditions
» New-build market has run its course
Much smaller backlog
– 3Q 2011: 10,000 cars, ten month wait
– Today: no significant wait
Significant drop off from ~14,000 new cars per year
– 2013 closer to 2,000-3,000 new cars
No new spec building by lessors – all deal specific now
Normalized pricing: older cars less expensive than new
Some new cars going into storage
» Lease market also post-peak
Available inventory from multiple directions
– Lessors, builders, oversubscribed shippers
Existing 286K cars available now
Cars with sub-optimal specs (grain, <286K, cement) are being
phased out of frac sand fleet
Credit-worthiness an important criteria
» Long-term horizon
Some signs of activity in cement market may help offset
remaining surplus of sand cars
Optimism in industry that sand car demand will strengthen in
Q3-Q4 2013
15
16. Shale Play Product
Flows Outbound
» Natural Gas
Majority via pipelines, some trucks
» Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
Requires processing (fractionation)
3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet)
– Ethane 63%
– Propane 22%
– Butane 8%
– Pentane 5%
– Other 2%
– Condensate (liquid hydrocarbons)
» Crude Oil
Bakken play as a model
Surging Permian and Eagle Ford development
16
17. Shale Development Natural
Gas Impacts - Thermal
» Industry a “victim of its own success”
Fracking results in oversupply; gas prices down 50%
since 2010
Rigs leave Marcellus, other gas plays for oil plays
Helped to deflate frac sand boom
» Significant displacement of coal for
electricity generation
Natural gas now supplying approx. 30% of thermal fuel Source: EIA
demand
Adversely affecting coal industry, railroad coal loadings
Source: NYMEX 17
18. Shale Related Rail Traffic Still
Small Relative to Coal Volumes
Rail Shipments: Coal, Sand & Crude
2,500,000
2,000,000
Carloads
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0 Sand
2008 Crude
2009 Coal
2010
2011
2012
Quarterly Data
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop 18
20. Shale Gas Driving US
Manufacturing Renaissance
» Huge upside for domestic manufacturing from low-cost electricity
generation
“Re-shoring” due to low electricity prices
Benefits ALL manufacturing in US
» Certain industries that use natural gas as a feedstock poised for a
renaissance
Methanol
– 16MM m/t new capacity under consideration
Fertilizer
Steel
» Broad implications for a wide variety of railcar types
20
21. Shale Gas Will Drive Steel
Manufacturing Comeback in US
» Shale gas boom makes direct-reduced iron steel economical
DRI plants viable with growth in shale gas
Not new technology, but preferable with lower cost natural gas
DRI process uses natural gas in place of coal to produce iron
Cost of production 20% lower per ton vs. traditional blast furnace
» U.S. jobs and international investment
Steel production in the U.S has shrunk 3.4% since 2008
– Compare to 14% growth in steel production internationally
– Domestic steel industry capacity running at 74%
At least five new DRI steel plants being considered in the U.S. – now
economical for the first time in 30 years due to low cost of natural gas
Both domestic and international firms investing in the technology
Initial investments create up to 500 jobs and 150 permanent employees
» Reciprocal growth
Increased demand for U.S. steel creates greater demand for U.S. gas
Joint venture between Nucor Corp. and Encana Corp. commits $3 billion to
development of new gas wells to support DRI plants
DRI-derived steel of higher quality than that created from recycled scrap,
further driving demand
21
22. Shale Gas Development
Impact on Fertilizer Market
» Natural gas is a feedstock for ammonia production
» Lower gas prices directly benefit American farmers
Increased demand for corn, soybeans has driven fertilizer costs higher
Excess natural gas supply can be utilized to produce greater volumes of fertilizer
more economically
Economic advantage of domestic production vs. imports for the first time in 20+
years due to low gas prices from fracking
» Cheap U.S. natural gas means billions in investment for new
domestic fertilizer plants, displacing imports
Orascom/Iowa Fertilizer Company - Wever, IA
CHS - Spiritwood, ND
Ohio Valley Resources - Spencer County, IN
Yara - Belle Plaine, SK Canada
North Dakota Grain Growers Association - Williston Basin, ND
CF Industries – expansions at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA
PotashCorp - resumption of ammonia production at Geismar, LA
Agrium – KY or MO (anticipated)
» If new plant construction/expansions are completed, imports of
nitrogen-based fertilizers could be reduced to “near zero” by 2018
22
23. Looking Ahead:
Natural Gas
» Factors that could revive demand and
prices (>$4/MMbtu)
Industrial use expansions come online over next 5
years
Continued toughening of EPA regulations of coal
Historic import/export reversal of US/Canada
natural gas flows by 2014 (Marcellus gas exports
to Canada)
Technology advancements for increased use of
CNG as a transportation fuel Source: Union Gas, RBN Energy
» Potential for LNG exports
Political/policy battle between domestic industrial
users and producers
Sabine Pass, LA now permitted for exports; more
terminals in application phase
Expect only moderate volumes of LNG exports to
be approved
– Avoids exposure of natural gas to similar market
forces that have affected oil
– Useful foreign policy instrument for Executive
Branch
» Expect any significant revival of dry gas
fracking to re-ignite frac sand car market,
transportation
Source: Waterborne Energy Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu 23
24. Shale Development
NGL Impacts
» Leading NGL and “wet gas” plays are Eagle Ford, Utica,
Permian
Significant investment and expansion of gathering, fractionation, and
takeaway capacity underway in the Utica Play
Takeaway capacity in Eagle Ford well exceeds current production (4x)
» Requires fractionation facilities proximal to production
“Y-grade” must be separated into purified products
75% of fractionation capacity in US Gulf Coast
Mt. Belvieu, TX major trading & storage hub
» Similar to dry gas, strong production due to fracking has
HDPE Calculated Cost
resulted in oversupply and depressed prices 2500
2000
$/Ton
1500
» However, also similar to dry gas, abundant supplies have
sparked chemical industry renaissance 1000
Ethane is “cracked” to make ethylene, the most basic building block in the 500
chemicals supply chain 0
Over $15B in new announced ethylene expansions will come on-line over
the next five years, increasing capacity by 33% (11 MMmt)
USA is now the low-cost producer of ethylene-based chemicals due to
abundant supplies of ethane from shale plays (up to 60% raw materials
cost advantage)
Sources: CMAI, TopLine Analytics, and Alembic analysis,
2012
24
25. Natural Gas & Petrochemical
Downstream Products
Feedstock/
Intermediary
Low-Density Food packaging, film, Finished
Polyethylene trash bags, diapers, toys
Products
House wares, crates,
High Density
drums, food containers,
Polyethylene
bottles.
Siding, windows,
Ethylene
Vinyl Chloride PVC frames, pipe, medical
Dichloride
tubing
Antifreeze Pantyhose,
Natural Gas, Ethylene Ethylene carpets, clothing
Fibers
OIl Oxide Glycol
PET
Miscellaneous Bottles, film
Ethane, Ethyl Polystyrene
Styrene
Naphtha, etc. Benzene SAN Insulation, cups
SBR
Linear Latex Instrument lenses,
Detergents house wares
Ethylene Alcohols Miscellaneous
Vinyl Acetate Tire, hose
Adhesives, coatings, textile/
paper. finishing, flooring Medical gloves,
Miscellaneous carpeting,
coatings
26. Looking Ahead: NGLs
» The (somewhat) hidden Condensate story
Used as diluent for heavy Canadian tar sands oil – critical for
transportation as “Dilbit”
Trades at ~$110/bbl at Edmonton
Significant investment in infrastructure being made to deliver Eagle
Ford, Utica condensate to Western Canada
Primary delivery via pipeline, but major rail volumes ex. Utica are
required to get to Midwest pipeline injection points
Additional stressor on tight tank car supplies
Demand expected to grow from 200 MMb/d to 500 MMb/d by 2020
» Expect export market for NGLs to expand
Source: Canadian Energy Research Institute
Pipeline reversals undertaken to meet demand, particularly ex. Utica to
Sarnia, ON petrochemical complex and export storage and dock
facilities in Philadelphia
» Continued strong NGL production will drive chemical
industry growth
Domestic end-use of materials, i.e. plastics, will expand significantly
Up to 40% of new petrochemical output will be for export
New demand for plastic resin hoppers, specialty and pressure tank cars
Source: MarkWest, Rextag 26
27. Shale Development
Crude Oil Impacts
» Dramatic increases in
US production due to
fracking
Projected to grow by ~30%
over next four years
Strong play in Bakken;
surging Permian and Eagle
Ford development
» Decreasing dependency
on foreign crude
Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013 Source: Morgan Stanley, February 2013
Combination of US shale plus
Canadian oil sands estimated
to reduce imports to <15% by
2020
West African imports already
down ~70% from 2010 levels
» Rail critical to total
crude market
Bakken as case study
Source: BENTEK Energy 27
28. Bakken Oil Production –
History and Forecast
600000
~704,000 BPD December 2012
500000
400000
Barrels Per Day
300000
First outbound
unit train
200000 shipment
December, 2009
100000
0
1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
Year
Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources - Source: North Dakota Oil and Gas Division January 2013
January 2013
28
29. Bakken Crude No Longer
“Stranded” Due to Logistics
ND Crude Production and Rail Transport
» Change in past 15 months 800,000
700,000
November 2011:
600,000
– 2012 Bakken discount vs. WTI have ranged from
500,000
$8-12 bbl
400,000
– Undervalued due to logistics constraints
300,000
“stranding” the oil
200,000
January 2013: 100,000
– Bakken vs. WTI near even to ~$4 discount due to 0
improved logistics Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
ND Production (bpd) Crude by Rail (bpd)
Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, PLG analysis
» Significant expansion of crude by
rail terminal capacities in 2011-
2012, but slowing in 2013
Increasing M&A activity, private equity
interest in infrastructure
29
29
30. Crude Oil by Rail – North
Dakota Terminals
(Existing by December 2012 and planned for 2013)
Loading Capacity Rail
Facility Location
(Barrels per Day) Carrier
Musket Corp Dore 60,000 BNSF
Savage Services Trenton 90,000 BNSF
Red River Supply Williston 10,000 BNSF
Hess Oil Tioga 60,000 BNSF
Plains All American Manitou 65,000 BNSF
Bakken Transload (Plains) Ross 20,000 (65k Q2 2013) BNSF
EOG Stanley 65,000 BNSF
Basin Transload Zap 40,000 BNSF
Bakken Oil Express Dickinson 100,000 BNSF
Enserco Gascoyne 10,000 (60k Q2 2013) BNSF
Inergy Partners Epping 120,000 BNSF
Enbridge Berthold 10,000 (60k Q2 2013) BNSF
Great Northern Fryburg 65,000 BNSF
BNSF Total Capacity 715,000
Global Stampede 60,000 CP
Dakota Plains New Town 40,000 CP
Plains All American Van Hook 35,000 (65k Q2 2013) CP
CP Rail Total Capacity 135,000
Total Crude by Rail Capacity 850,000
Source: PLG analysis 30
31. North Dakota Class I Railroads
and Crude Oil Terminals
Map by PLG Consulting
Source: RBN Energy 31
31
32. Bakken Area
Outbound Pipelines
Current Capacity ( Q1 2013) - 440,000 bpd
Announced pipeline capacity expansions
Company Project BBL's/day Expected in
Name Capacity service date
Enbridge Berthold Expansion 145,000 1Q 2013
Sandpiper 225,000 2016
Plains All American Bakken North 75,000 1Q 2013
Saddle Butte High Prairie 160,000 1Q 2014
Oneok Partners Bakken Express 200,000 2015 Bakken Express
‘postponed’ November
30, 2012 due to lack of
Trans Canada Bakken Marketlink 100,000 2015 subscription
Keystone XL 830,000 2015?
Total New Pipelines: 1,535,000
NEW pipeline capacity expected operational:
2013 220,000
2014 160,000
2015 325,000
TBD (K XL) 830,000
Bpd = Barrels per Day Source: PLG analysis, North Dakota Governors Pipeline Summit 2012, ND Pipeline Authority Jan 2013 32
32
33. Bakken Production vs. Takeaway
Capacity: 2012–2014 Projection
Total
Excess
Year ND Production Pipeline Rail Terminal Rail Carrier ND Refinery Outbound &
Logistics
Forecast (Bpd) Capacity* Capacity Capacity Consumption Refinery
Capacity
Capacity
2012 700,000 460,000 670,000 1,200,000 60,000 1,190,000 490,000
2013 790,000 650,000 880,000 1,300,000 60,000 1,590,000 800,000
2014 860,000 900,000 880,000 1,350,000 60,000 1,840,000 980,000
* Excludes Keystone XL Bpd = Barrels per Day Source: PLG Analysis
33
35. Crude Oil by Rail
vs. Pipeline
» Current pipeline options ~ 30-45% lower
cost vs. rail
» Near-term offsetting rail advantages:
Site permitting, construction is much quicker and easier
Much lower capital cost and scalable
Shorter contracts
Transit to destination - 5-7 days via unit train vs. 30+
days via pipeline (between Bakken and US Gulf Coast)
Origin and destination flexibility/opportunistic to new
$16.00 $14.70
$14.00
markets $11.50
Dollars Per Barrel
$12.00 $10.50
» Long-term challenges that will affect rail $10.00
volumes and margins: $8.00 $6.50
$6.00
Pipeline expansions $4.00
$2.00
Bakken-WTI price equilibrium
$-
Any significant narrowing of price differential between Pipeline to Rail to Cushing Pipeline to Pt Rail to Pt
Cushing Arthur Arthur
Brent and WTI
Source: PLG analysis
35
36. Crude Oil by Rail
Volume Growth
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
Carloads
30,000
BNSF
UP
25,000
CPRS
20,000 CN
CSXT
15,000 KCS
NS
10,000
5,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Quarterly Data
Source - US Rail Desktop
36
37. Shale Development Impact on
Crude Oil Market Dynamics
Destination
» Crude oil will find its way to market one way or Markets
another
Price differentials
Capita Key Price
– Bakken and WTI trading at ~$20/bbl less than Brent l
Drivers
– Alberta Bitumen trading at ~$40/bbl less than Brent
E&P, midstream players willing to rapidly deploy significant
capital to enable access Logistics
– Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays
– New multi-modal terminals/trading hubs at destination markets (i.e.
Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX, Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA)
– Lease and purchase of railcar fleets
– Pipeline expansions, reversals, new construction
Refineries installing unit train receiving capability
– Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne imports (i.e.
Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Anacortes, WA, Ferndale, WA)
» However, not all crudes are created equal
Light/sweet vs. heavy/sour
– Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken, Permian, Niobrara,
Permian) are light/sweet
– Heavy/sour crudes include Western Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, Alaska
North Slope (ANS), Middle East (light/sour)
– Light/sweet requires less downstream processing
– Heavy/sour has higher sulfur content
37
37
– Bakken has higher gas, jet, and distillate yield than peer crudes
38. Shale Development Impact on Crude
Oil Market Dynamics (continued)
» Refineries are generally configured to run certain types of crude
Significant investments made ($48B since 2005) at select refineries to install coker units that will allow processing of heavy/sour
Major heavy/sour refining clusters: Corpus Christi, Houston, Chicago, southern Illinois, Ohio, West Coast
» The special case of the Canada Oil Sands
Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest and US Gulf Coast
Pipeline capacity to US Midwest refining centers is at capacity
As Canada waited for pipelines, Bakken built rail infrastructure to provide 50+% of takeaway capacity
Pipeline developments to coasts, US markets still 2+ years away, while tank car supply constrains rail options
Alberta producers’ opportunity cost at $60MM/day due to Bitumen discounting
Province of Alberta receives 25% of its $40B annual budget from oil royalties
Source: PLG Consulting
38
38
39. Shale Development Impact on Crude
Oil Market Dynamics (continued)
» The gusher of new US light/sweet shale oil production made possible by fracking
has upended the traditional oil logistics and trading patterns
Result: “Wrong place/wrong oil” supply displacements, i.e. Cushing overflow
Rapid investment in new logistics infrastructure, routes, modes, and terminals
The biggest current bottleneck: Railcars
– Current order backlog runs to 3Q 2014
– Major purchases by oil majors and midstream companies
– Extremely tight market with very high lease rates
» A “new normal” in crude oil flows will emerge in conjunction with continued North
American oil production over the next five years
39
39
41. The Shale Development Revolution – Big
Picture for the Railcar Industry
Crude Cars New Energy
Paradigms
Capital Downstream Price
Look Beyond Today Opportunities Expect Change
Small Cube Hoppers Logistics Rapid Change 41
42. Professional Logistics Group
Thank You!
For follow up questions and information, please contact:
Taylor Robinson, President
+1-508-982-1319 / trobinson@prologisticsgroup.com
Graham Brisben, CEO
+1-708-386-0700 / gbrisben@prologisticsgroup.com
Jean Arndt, Vice President
+1-630-505-0273 / jarndt@prologisticsgroup.com
Jeff Dowdell, Senior Consultant
+1-732-995-6696 / jdowdell@prologisticsgroup.com
Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant
+1-215-620-4247 / gheisler@prologisticsgroup.com
Jeff Rasmussen, Senior Consultant
+1-317-379-5715 / jrasmussen@prologisticsgroup.com
Eric Lamy, Business Manager
+1-508-633-3993 / elamy@prologisticsgroup.com
Jay Olberding, Analyst
+1-636-399-5628 / jolberding@prologisticsgroup.com
This presentation is available at:
WWW.PROLOGISTICSGROUP.COM 42