Macro Economic Aspects Of People's Mobility Mr. Jonathan Chaloff, Administrator, International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD http://euromonde.eu

1. Macro-Economic
Aspects Of People’s
Mobility
How to Improve Intra-European Mobility and Circular
Migration? Fostering Diaspora Engagement
Jonathan Chaloff
International Migration Division
OECD
Riga, 11 May 2015

2. • The role of migration to respond to
the business cycle
• Structural aspects notably in line with
population ageing
Structure of the presentation

3. No surprise that free mobility responds to
economic conditions in destination country…
OECD (2014), International Migration Outlook 2014, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2014-en
Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category of
entry, standardised statistics, 2007-12
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Work Accompanying family
of workers
Family Humanitarian Other Free movements
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle

4. Working-age citizens living in another EU country as a percentage
of the population (15-64) of the country of citizenship, 2013
..and a large share of the mobile migrants left their
home only following EU membership…
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
RO PT HR LT LV BG IE LU PL EL EE SK AT NL HU IT BE DK FI CZ UK SE FR ES DE
More than 10 years 5 to 10 years Less than 5 years
Source: OECD/European Union (2014), Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs, OECD
Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264216501-en
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle

5. Return migration from the EU-27/EFTA and labour market conditions
in selected European OECD countries, 2005-2010
…while return migration depends on the
conditions in the origin country
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2005 2007 2009
Czech Republic
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2005 2007 2009
Lithuania
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2005 2007 2009
Latvia
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2005 2007 2009
Poland
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
2005 2007 2009
Romania
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2005 2007 2009
Germany
Chaloff, J., et al. (2012), "Free labour mobility and economic shocks: the experience of the crisis", in OECD, Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market
Adjustment: Recent Experiences from OECD Countries and the European Union, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264177185-5-en
Unemploymentraterelativetothe
EU27/EFTAasawhole
Returnshare(%ofthetotal
native-bornpopulationwhich
returnedduringthepastyear
fromtheEU27/EFTAarea)
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle

6. • Wide and increasing variation in unemployment rates among
countries of the Eurozone since the beginning of the crisis (in 2012,
25% in Spain, 24% in Greece, 4% in Austria and 6% in Germany)
• Two questions:
 Is free labour mobility reducing labour market disparities in
Europe, in the Eurozone and in the United States?
 Did the crisis lead to a change in the migratory response to
regional disparities?
Labour Market Adjustment in the
Eurozone
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle

7. Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the
Crisis
• Labour mobility contributed to reducing regional unemployment
and non-employment disparities in Europe and in the United States
• In both Europe and in the United States, up to a quarter of a shock to
unemployment or non-employment may be accommodated within a
year’s time
• During the crisis, Europe, unlike the United States, exhibited a
stronger migratory reaction to labour market shocks, although cross-
state mobility in the U.S. is still larger than in Europe
• Labour market adjustment in Europe has primarily been driven by
citizens from outside the Eurozone, such as the recent EU accession
countries or non-EU-27/EFTA countries
Jauer, J., et al. (2014), "Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis? A Comparison of Europe and the United
States", OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 155, OECD Publishing, Paris.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jzb8p51gvhl-en
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle

8. • Population Aging
• Compositional effects
2. Structural aspects of migration

9. Percentage change of the working age population, 2010-2020 (%)
Without migration, the working age population
would be falling in most OECD countries
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Bulgaria
Japan
Latvia
Lithuania
RussianFederation
Estonia
Malta
Poland
EU12
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Romania
Germany
Finland
Iceland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Greece
EU27
EFTA+EU27
Portugal
Netherlands
Denmark
France
EU15
Korea
Austria
Spain
Ireland
Sweden
Italy
China
UnitedKingdom
OECD
Canada
Belgium
UnitedStates
Switzerland
NewZealand
SouthAfrica
Norway
Chile
Australia
EE5
Brazil
Israel
Indonesia
Luxembourg
Turkey
Mexico
India
Percentage change of 15-64 population (%, 2010-2020)
Percentage change of 15-64 population (%, 2010-2020), assuming zero net migration
Source: OECD/European Union (2014), Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs, OECD Publishing, Paris.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264216501-en
2. Structural aspects of migration

10. Composition of the change in the labour force, by education
level and demographic group, 2010-20
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-90%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Young workers (new entrants) Older workers (retirees)
Prime-age workers New immigrants
Growth in tertiary-educated labour force 2010-20 (right-hand scale)
Tertiary educated
assumes progress in education attainment of
cohorts aged 35-64, already in the labour
market in 2010, but no educational upgrade
for those aged 15-34 in 2020 (compared to
2010)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
Less than upper secondary education
2. Structural aspects of migration

11. Importance of medium-educated workforce
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
Young workers (new entrants) Older workers (retirees)
Prime-age workers New immigrants
Growth in labour force with upper secondary 2010-20 (right-hand scale)
Upper secondary education: Scenario 1
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-90%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Upper secondary education: Scenario 2
2. Structural aspects of migration Scenario 1 assumes progress in
education attainment of cohorts
aged 35-64, already in the labour
market in 2010, but no educational
upgrade for those aged 15-34 in
2020 (compared to 2010).
Scenario 2 assumes progress in
education attainment for all
cohorts in 2020

12. Strengthen mobility
• Increase take-up rates for assessment and recognition of foreign qualifications
• Activate migrants’ skills through mainstream and flexible specific programmes
• Put immigrants in contact with employers
Better use of existing skills
• Grant children of immigrants better access to early childhood education and care
• Language training should be adapted to migrants’ skills in destination country
• Strengthen anti-discrimination policy
What can be done?
Recruiting new skills
• Better balance between reliance on employer demand and safeguard
mechanisms
• Tools to match employers and potential immigrants, including
foreign students
• Promote learning of EU languages abroad
2. Structural aspects of migration

13. Develop strategies for interacting with these new Diaspora
populations
• Some OECD countries have experience of how to benefit from large
Diaspora communities, and these should be examples
• Promising paths to pursue include brain circulation, diaspora
engagement, language support and reinforcement of networks
What role for the diaspora?
But,
• the longer the stay abroad, the less likely the return -
many countries should not expect large scale returns
• those who return may have a wage premium for their
work experience abroad, but they face a higher risk of
unemployment
2. Structural aspects of migration

14. For further information:
www.oecd.org/migration
jonathan.chaloff@oecd.org
14/11
Thank you for your attention

15. Free mobility entries in the United Kingdom and Ireland, national data (in thousands)
No surprise that free mobility responds to
economic conditions in destination country…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other EU-8 countries Poland
Ireland:
Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers issued to EU-8 citizens
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other A-8 countries Poland
United Kingdom:
Applications for the Worker RegistrationScheme (WRS) by EU-8
citizens
Note: PPS numbers are issued to anyone in Ireland accessing social benefits, public services and certain other public services. Changes in PPS
numbers are therefore only a proxy for changes in labour-related flows, as they are issued to children and inactive immigrants.
Chaloff, J., et al. (2012), "Free labour mobility and economic shocks: the experience of the crisis", inOECD, Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market Adjustment: Recent
Experiences from OECD Countries and the European Union, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264177185-5-en