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Fad or Future - What Do Virtual Worlds Have to Offer? Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland  Second Life & Virtual Worlds  March 2008
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A world of rapidly growing knowledge …. > A person’s lifetime 18th century One week 2007 Fischbowl 2007
…that becomes quickly outdated …. 50% knowledge relevant 50% knowledge outdated First year of technical-based education Third year of education Fischbowl 2007
..making it more difficult to keep up Growth Time Output of information and knowledge Human  absorptive capacity Junks 1989
Increasing pace of change! Spread of Technology (Penetration rates years after introduction, Year I =Year Invented)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],networks. Lévy 1997
Numerous networking possibilities!
The number of virtual worlds is growing
Second Life – one example of a virtual world ,[object Object],[object Object]
The number of unique users in Second Life has increased exponentially within one year SL, September 3, 2007
US avatars spend the most hours in world  SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world Sweden is #17
Who’s in world in Second Life? Number of active avatars SL, September 3, 2007 Sweden is #17
25-34 year olds spend most time in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number  of hours  in world ~40% Female
Why should we be interested? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are real world organizations  doing in Second Life? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ We think it has potential as a way of doing business. We’re just experimenting with it ourselves but we see  massive potential  in the  human interaction  you can bring. It’s a big browsing environment in many ways.” - IBM Director
“Catalogue” sales  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Springtime   Training with avatars from Shanghai, Beijing, Stockholm, and Gotland Internal communications
In-house training and education IFL at SSE and Duke Corporate Education Co-developing and running virtual team building exercise
Recruiting Job Fairs
Improving skills Learning to sail  with the Starboards Yacht Club
Conducting experiments Creating a communication strategy for Skatteverket
Co-creating solutions Philips Design Group
Leveraging avatars ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
..to develop new products  The Innovision Competition by Electrolux
..and create tomorrow’s solutions Building the house of the future in an HSB competition
Collaborating and co-creating Museum with “open source” art
Experiencing the “impossible” UC Davis Medical Center has simulated schizofrenia
But Return on Investment is limited We have a  long-term approach  to costs and RoI. We have qualitative goals, to expand and develop our presence. - BMW  We have  no targets  for RoI.  -ABN Amro There needs to be some RoI eventually, but this is a long-term project and we are just looking at the  potential . - Vodafone  Financial Times , May 2007
Is anybody out there? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMW In-world Wells Fargo, Starwood Hotels, American Apparel are pulling out
So, what do people do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SL, Jan 29, 2008
Critical mass is restricted due to technology * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 1,391 138 195,250 Richmond, VA 1,479 0.06 98 Online, Mon, Jan 28 9:45 pm (GMT+1) The Pharm Techno Dance Club #1 popular site 10,316 786 8,143,000 New York 24,759 87 2,153,600 Paris 1,083 450 489,760 Gothenburg* 4,164 188 782,890 Stockholm* Density  (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
Is there critical mass on Second Life? * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 43 988 42,060 Motala* 68 805 54,920 Online, Mon, Jan 28 9:45 pm (GMT+1) Second Life 177 41,284 7,252,330 Switzerland Density  (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
And is anyone making money? What are these  individuals  selling? Real estate & land rentals Simulation & training environments, games Clothing, accessories, skins, animations Art, design, furniture SL, Jan 29, 2008 Total of  482 >$5000 $2000-5000
Recent regulatory developments in Second Life Second Life’s largest bank closes its doors
What is happening in other virtual worlds?
Are businesses anywhere else? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cyworld - A world where  “MySpace meets Second Life” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Computer Sweden , June 2007
MMOGs still dominate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Xfire.com, MMPORG.com ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are we  today  with virtual worlds? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So, what about the future of virtual worlds?
What can we do that we “ cannot”  do in real life?
Creating immersive experiences.. Inside van Gogh’s Starry Night
…to reduce virtual distance A recreation of the Sistine Chapel
Facilitating the virtual workforce ,[object Object],[object Object]
Developing training & educational programs Play2train
Increasing effectiveness in traditional industries “ Soon  all fashion designers  will be originating their designs and managing the  production in virtual worlds ….Why such a dramatic change? Economics, pure and simple .” Shenlei Winkler,  Director Fashion Research Institute
Revolutionizing professions
Improving national competitiveness ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Financial Times , June 2007
Resolving conflicts
How can we look into the future? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two underlying questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Four scenarios for 2012 Fragmentated worlds Integrated worlds Advanced usage Less- advanced usage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What should you do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Christenson 1997, Tapscott & Williams 2006
What should you do in virtual worlds? Experiment, “play”, and learn Stay on the look-out Consider creating independent operations Don’t forget other emerging media
What should you do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Develop an open innovation attitude Not all the smart people work for us.  We need to work with smart people inside and outside the company. The smart people in our field work for us. If you create the most and the best ideas in the industry, you will win. If you make the best use of internal and external ideas, you will win. Closed attitude Open attitude Chesborough 2003
Leverage the wisdom of crowds Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Surowiecki 2004,  Hinton 2007
The opportunities are endless……. http://static.flickr.com/47/110109290_2189217cee.jpg
Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.
Disney pays $350 mln for Club Penguin  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],paidcontent.org
Tomorrow’s workforce is…
…building skills today Xfire.com, MMPORG.com, June 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
We digitized audio and video, why can’t we just digitize,  you know, Earth”  Philip Rosedale, CEO Linden Lab
Thanks and  see you in world! Karinda Rhode aka Robin Teigland [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland

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Fador Future Of Virtual Worlds Teigland

  • 1. Fad or Future - What Do Virtual Worlds Have to Offer? Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland Second Life & Virtual Worlds March 2008
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  • 3. A world of rapidly growing knowledge …. > A person’s lifetime 18th century One week 2007 Fischbowl 2007
  • 4. …that becomes quickly outdated …. 50% knowledge relevant 50% knowledge outdated First year of technical-based education Third year of education Fischbowl 2007
  • 5. ..making it more difficult to keep up Growth Time Output of information and knowledge Human absorptive capacity Junks 1989
  • 6. Increasing pace of change! Spread of Technology (Penetration rates years after introduction, Year I =Year Invented)
  • 7.
  • 9. The number of virtual worlds is growing
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  • 11. The number of unique users in Second Life has increased exponentially within one year SL, September 3, 2007
  • 12. US avatars spend the most hours in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world Sweden is #17
  • 13. Who’s in world in Second Life? Number of active avatars SL, September 3, 2007 Sweden is #17
  • 14. 25-34 year olds spend most time in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world ~40% Female
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  • 19. “ We think it has potential as a way of doing business. We’re just experimenting with it ourselves but we see massive potential in the human interaction you can bring. It’s a big browsing environment in many ways.” - IBM Director
  • 20.
  • 21. Springtime Training with avatars from Shanghai, Beijing, Stockholm, and Gotland Internal communications
  • 22. In-house training and education IFL at SSE and Duke Corporate Education Co-developing and running virtual team building exercise
  • 24. Improving skills Learning to sail with the Starboards Yacht Club
  • 25. Conducting experiments Creating a communication strategy for Skatteverket
  • 27.
  • 28. ..to develop new products The Innovision Competition by Electrolux
  • 29. ..and create tomorrow’s solutions Building the house of the future in an HSB competition
  • 30. Collaborating and co-creating Museum with “open source” art
  • 31. Experiencing the “impossible” UC Davis Medical Center has simulated schizofrenia
  • 32. But Return on Investment is limited We have a long-term approach to costs and RoI. We have qualitative goals, to expand and develop our presence. - BMW We have no targets for RoI. -ABN Amro There needs to be some RoI eventually, but this is a long-term project and we are just looking at the potential . - Vodafone Financial Times , May 2007
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  • 35. Critical mass is restricted due to technology * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 1,391 138 195,250 Richmond, VA 1,479 0.06 98 Online, Mon, Jan 28 9:45 pm (GMT+1) The Pharm Techno Dance Club #1 popular site 10,316 786 8,143,000 New York 24,759 87 2,153,600 Paris 1,083 450 489,760 Gothenburg* 4,164 188 782,890 Stockholm* Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • 36. Is there critical mass on Second Life? * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 43 988 42,060 Motala* 68 805 54,920 Online, Mon, Jan 28 9:45 pm (GMT+1) Second Life 177 41,284 7,252,330 Switzerland Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • 37. And is anyone making money? What are these individuals selling? Real estate & land rentals Simulation & training environments, games Clothing, accessories, skins, animations Art, design, furniture SL, Jan 29, 2008 Total of 482 >$5000 $2000-5000
  • 38. Recent regulatory developments in Second Life Second Life’s largest bank closes its doors
  • 39. What is happening in other virtual worlds?
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  • 45. So, what about the future of virtual worlds?
  • 46. What can we do that we “ cannot” do in real life?
  • 47. Creating immersive experiences.. Inside van Gogh’s Starry Night
  • 48. …to reduce virtual distance A recreation of the Sistine Chapel
  • 49.
  • 50. Developing training & educational programs Play2train
  • 51. Increasing effectiveness in traditional industries “ Soon all fashion designers will be originating their designs and managing the production in virtual worlds ….Why such a dramatic change? Economics, pure and simple .” Shenlei Winkler, Director Fashion Research Institute
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  • 59. What should you do in virtual worlds? Experiment, “play”, and learn Stay on the look-out Consider creating independent operations Don’t forget other emerging media
  • 60.
  • 61. Develop an open innovation attitude Not all the smart people work for us. We need to work with smart people inside and outside the company. The smart people in our field work for us. If you create the most and the best ideas in the industry, you will win. If you make the best use of internal and external ideas, you will win. Closed attitude Open attitude Chesborough 2003
  • 62. Leverage the wisdom of crowds Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Surowiecki 2004, Hinton 2007
  • 63. The opportunities are endless……. http://static.flickr.com/47/110109290_2189217cee.jpg
  • 64. Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.
  • 65.
  • 67.
  • 68. “ I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
  • 69. We digitized audio and video, why can’t we just digitize, you know, Earth” Philip Rosedale, CEO Linden Lab
  • 70. Thanks and see you in world! Karinda Rhode aka Robin Teigland [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland