Presentation by Gerard Roland (University of California) at the ERF 21st Annual Conference - Tunisia, 21 March 2015

1. Democracy and Economic Development
ERF 21st Annual Conference
Gammarth, Tunisia
March 20-22, 2015

2. Culture and democratization
Gerard Roland UC Berkeley
ERF, Tunis March 2015

3. Introduction
• Research on democratization has since Lipset (1959)
turned around the democratization hypothesis:
whether and to what extent income per capita is a
determinant of democratization, and what are the
mechanisms linking income per capita to
democratization. One of the main research areas in
political science.
• In Gorodnichenko and Roland (2010, 2013), we
examine the role of culture on both income and
democratization.
• In recent years, economist have finally started to
analyze theoretically and empirically the economic
effects of cultural differences.
• Today’s talk: role of culture on democratization, and
possible link with income.

4. What is culture?
• The set of values and beliefs people have
about how the world (both nature and society)
works as well as the norms of behavior derived
from that set of values.
• Comprehensive definition. Strong overlap with
religion but somewhat more inclusive. Culture
also evolves somewhat more than religion.
• Not culinary or clothing habits.

5. Individualism and collectivism
• individualism and collectivism is the main cultural
dimension identified by cross-cultural psychology (see
Heine, 2008).
• Individualistic culture emphasizes individual
achievement (standing out) and awards social status to
success in individual achievement, be it economic,
artistic, scientific, humanitarian,…
• Collectivist culture emphasizes conformity and
embeddedness in larger groups and frowns on
deviation from conformity. (see e.g. Platteau 2000).
• Individualism and collectivism are associated with
differences in self-image, motivation, choice-making,
effort, relational mobility, behavior to ingroup and
outgroup and even cognitive differences (see survey in
Gorodnichenko and Roland, 2012)

6. Measurement of individualism
• Hofstede’s (2001) measure of individualism versus
collectivism. Initially based on surveys among IBM
employees across the world to understand cultural
differences within a corporation. Was generalized to
more than 90 countries later on. Based on factor
analysis of survey questions. Loads positively on
valuing individual freedom, opportunity, achievement,
advancement, recognition and negatively on valuing
harmony, cooperation, relations with superiors.
Measure validated by other studies on smaller
samples.
• Schwartz cultural mappings: dimensions of intellectual
and affective autonomy opposing embeddedness have
high correlation with Hofstede data.

7. Hofstede individualism index

8. Culture and democratization
• Cultural values affect the direction of institutional
change when there is a window of collective action
(revolution, elite revolt). Revolts do not necessarily
lead to democracy, even when they are successful, but
may lead to a particular autocratic regime.
• Individualistic culture creates demand for democracy.
Freedom is fundamental for self-achievement. Equality
before the law and limited government necessary to
protect individual freedom.
• Collectivist culture emphasizes more the necessity of a
benevolent ruler to create stability between different
clans and groups. Emphasis on hierarchy and order.
Freedom seen as endangering stability.

9. Culture and democracy
• Gorodnichenko-Roland (2013) model:
Individualistic culture might be less good at
overcoming collective action failure compared
to collectivist culture, but will nevertheless in
equilibrium end up earlier with democracy
over time, while collectivist cultures may have
more revolts but may get stuck with “good”
autocratic regimes.

10. Individualism and democracy

11. Probability of autocracy breakdown

12. Culture and democratization
• There might be a two-way effect between
individualism and democracy. Instrumental
variable strategy needed.
• Historical pathogen prevalence (leishmanias,
trypanosomes, filariae, leprosy, dengue, typhus
and tuberculosis.etc.).. Fincher et al. (2008) show
direct link with collectivism as higher pathogen
prevalence pushed communities to adopt more
collectivist values emphasizing tradition, putting
stronger limits on individual behavior, and
showing less openness towards foreigners.

13. Culture and democratization
• Econometrically, satisfies the exclusion
restriction. No link from pathogen prevalence to
democracy or autocracy: autocracy not
necessarily better than democracy at dealing with
pathogens.
• We also use Euclidian distance between the
frequency of blood types A and B in a given
country and the most individualist countries (USA
and UK), based on Cavalli-Sforza et al. (1994) data
and understood as a proxy for cultural
transmission.

14. Culture and democratization
• Effect of individualistic culture on democracy
is robustly significant when controlling for:
– Conflict
– Religious controls
– Institutions
– Inequality
– Fractionalization
– Education …
– … and income

15. Culture and income per capita
• In Gorodnichenko and Roland (2010), we show
empirically that countries with more individualist
culture have more innovation and higher long term
growth, controlling for all the variables in the growth
literature (institutions, education, …)
• Theory: social status reward to innovation gives
dynamic advantage to individualist cultures while
collectivism gives superiority in coordination, which
has only a static advantage..
• It is difficult to disentangle direct effect of income on
democratization and indirect effect via individualism,
but there is a clear and robust effect of individualism
on democracy.

16. How does this relate to MENA
countries?
• MENA countries measured in Hofstede data are
in the middle of individualism-collectivism index,
but have a much lower polity score
• If cultural theory is correct, there are reasons to
be optimistic in the long run for MENA, but the
short run is very uncertain, and most MENA
countries have not had any experience of
democracy.
• Most reversals of democracy take place only a
few years after regime change (Svolik, 2007).

17. Policy recommendations
• Culture changes only very slowly, but strong public
debates needed between proponents and opponents
of democracy (like in the interwar period in Europe).
• Easier to win the debate if values are closer to
individualism.
• Inclusive democracy is important to avoid tyranny of
the majority.
• Political institutions with strong separation of powers
between branches of government prevent too much
concentration of power and are stabilizing, even at the
cost of possible paralysis of decision-making.
• Decentralization and federalism help coping with
geographical political heterogeneity and empower civil
society.

18. Democracy and Economic Development
ERF 21st Annual Conference
Gammarth, Tunisia
March 20-22, 2015