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Building a complete manufacturing eco-
             system in India
              November 10,2011

            Madhavan Nampoothiri
            Energy Alternatives India
“Has India missed the chance to
become a PV manufacturing super-
            power?”
Overview

• Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand today?
   – Crystalline Silicon(Polysilicon to modules)
   – Thin Films
   – Balance of Systems(Inverters)
   – PV Manufacturing Equipment

• What are the challenges to become a serious player?

• Is policy support sufficient to make that happen?
Solar PV – The evolution..
Annual Installations                                           Annual production - Modules
90%                                                            60%

80%
                                                               50%
70%                                                                   Japan

60%                                                            40%
                        EU
50%
                                                                        USA
         Japan                                                 30%
40%

30%                                                            20%    EU

                 Rest of the
20%                World                                              Rest of the
                                                               10%      World
10%     USA
                                                                      China/Taiwan
         China/Taiwan
0%                                                              0%
      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                                              Source: EPIA                                                     Source: EPIA


Cumulative Global Installations(2010):                         Share of global PV Production capacity(2010):
Europe –30 GW (over 75%)                                       China – more than 50%
India – About 30 MW (less than 0.1%)                           India – Less than 5% (in modules)
Global PV Manufacturing : Charging ahead!!
                                     C- Silicon                                                                            Thin Films
                 60                       China:                                                       4.5
                                          16 GW            54.0
                                                                                52.3
                                                                                                        4
                 50                       India:                         47.3                                             Moser Baer      60 MW
                                           0.6                                                         3.5                HHV              (a-Si)
                                           GW                     41.5
                            40.0
                 40                                36.7                                                 3
Capacity (GW)




                                                                                       Capacity (GW)
                                          32.9
                                                                                                       2.5                       Shurjo
                 30                28.2
                                                 China:
                                                 20 GW
                                                                                                        2

                 20                                                                                    1.5

                                                  India:                                                1
                 10                              1.2 GW
                                                                                                       0.5

                   0                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                  2009                 2010                 2011
                                    2010                           2011

                   PolySilicon              Wafer          Cell          Module                                          CdTe          CIGS         a- Si
                Source: iSuppli(May 2011)
                                                                                                             Source: GTM Research(May 2011)
Global Inverters manufacturing: Not left behind..
                                                                                      Top Global Inverter Manufacturers
Inverter Production Capacity vs. Solar PV Installed Capacity
                                                                                       SMA

                                                                          SMA-35%      Power One
  45                                 SMA-40%                               Market
                                                                           Share(E)
                                                                                       Kaco
                                      Market
  40                                  Share
                                                                                       Fronius
  35       SMA-40%                                                                     REFUsol
            Market
  30        Share                                                                      Satcon

  25                                                                                   Danfoss

  20                                                                                   Solarmax

  15                                                                                   Delta

  10                                                                                   Advanced Energy

   5                                                                                  Indian Scenario
   0
            2009                     2010                          2011
                                                                                       AEG
                     Invertor capacity(GW)     Installations(GW)
                                                                                       Delta Electronics (WIP)

                                                                                       DB Electronics
PV Manufacturing equipment : European
       domination continues..
   Rank                              Company                      Revenues               Country
                                                                  ($Million)
             1 Applied Materials                                          1495 USA
             2 Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG                                825 Germany
             3 GT Solar Incorporated                                       775 USA
             4 Meyer Burger^                                               735 Switzerland
             5 Gebr.Schmid GmbH+Co                                         570 Germany
             6 Ulvac, Inc.                                                 380 Japan
             7 Roth & Rau AG*                                              325 Germany
             8 RENA Sondermaschinen GmbH                                   300 Germany
             9 48th Research Institute of CETC                             295 China
           10 Oerlikon Solar                                               195 Switzerland
^ Second after acquisition of R&R
* To be acquired by Meyer Burger
R&R sold CdTe coating division to undisclosed Chinese buyer

List includes both c-Si and Thin Film capacities

                                                                                       Source: VLSI Research



                                                   HHV in India
Indian PV manufacturing – The challenges




Financial

Operational
        Market
Market Challenges – Dramatic price drops                                                              Manufacturing Operations
 $4.50                                                                                        Highlights:
                      $4.25
 $4.00
 $3.50
                                                                Excess
                                                               capacity
                                                                                              - Commodity manufacturing(almost)
 $3.00                                                                                        - Standard off-the-shelf technology available
 $2.50                               $2.60
                                                    $2.20
 $2.00
 $1.50                                                                                        Key success factor:
                                                                $1.20
 $1.00                                                                         $1.00
                                                                               $0.70
                                                                                              • Lead times in commissioning a unit
 $0.50                                                                         $0.45
   $-
                                                                               $0.21          • Utilization rates
               2008           2009           2010      2011(Q4) 2012(ASP                      • Infrastructure(ex. electricity)
                                                                Estimate)
          Module($/W)         Cell($/W)        Wafer($/W)           Polysilicon($/W)



                                                                                       C-Si
                  Investments and returns                                                                                       Cost Drivers

                      Poly Silicon        Ingot &           Cells          Module               Module 8.0% 0.3%                      89.0%                         0.7%
                                           Wafer


Investments/            Medium            Medium            High             Low                     Cell       37.0%            3.0%         52.0%               5.0%
MW


Optimum                 Very High         Medium            Low            Very Low               Wafer        30.0%         4.0%             60.0%               4.0%
production
scale

                                                                                              Polysilicon          45.0%              26.0%           17.0%    10.0%
Margins                   High            Medium            Low              Low

                                                                                                        0.0%     20.0%        40.0%       60.0%       80.0%     100.0%

                                                                                                  Capex Depreciation    Electricity   Materials   Labor Cost   Others
Market challenges                                           Manufacturing Operations


-   Narrowing gap with c-Si                         Highlights
                                                    - R&D intensive, not commodity manufacturing
-   Lower conversion efficiency                     - Standard production technology not available
-   a-Si : limited efficiency upside                 - Successful CdTe manufacturing tech
                                                         proprietary
-   Cadmium : a carcinogen                          Success factors
-   CIGS : Not cost competitive yet                 • Lead times
                                                    • High R&D
                                                    • Sourcing of rare earth metals/raw
                                                         materials
                                                 Thin
                Investments and returns          Films                                         Cost Drivers


                    a- Si        CdTe     CIGS
                                                     CdTe

Capital             High       Medium     High       CIGS
Investments
                                                         a Si
Optimum Scale       Low          Low      Low
of Investment                                                   0              20             40         60              80              100

                                                                    Raw material and consumables        Capital Depreciation & amortization
                                                                    Energy                              Labour
                                                                    Research & Development              Others
Policy support for Manufacturing

                                                                                      Chinese Advantage
                        Ontario, Canada                                               •    Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011)
                        - Local content                                               •    No principal or interest payments for
                        requirement                                                        first 5 years
                                                               Italy                  •    Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of
                                                               - 10% higher FiT            CAPEX funded)
                                    Chinese Advantage          for made in EU         •    Local content mandated for

                                    • Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011)                manufacturing


                                    • No principal or interest payments for first 5 years
USA                                 • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of CAPEX
                                                                              India
                                                                              - Local content requirement under
-Sunshot Initiative                                                           JNNSM
-- DOE loans(eg. Solyndra)            funded)                                 -Incentives under Rajasthan policy

                                    • Local content mandated for manufacturing- Duty exemptions
Half glass full or half glass empty?
• Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand ?
   o   Crystalline Silicon – Negligible, but relatively better
   o   Thin Films - Negligible
   o   PV Manufacturing Equipment – Negligible
   o   Inverters - Negligible
• What are the challenges?
   o Market - Global excess capacity
   o Operational – Scaling up fast, continuous cost reduction, efficiency increases
   o Financial – Huge capex outlays, Low cost financing
• Is policy support sufficient?
   o More can be done

• Silver lining – We can only get better!!
How can we get around the
               challenges?
• Shammy Khan, VP Strategic Markets, Flextronics - "PV
  manufacturing- Outsource vs. InSource"

• Dr. VS Gangadhara Rao, Lanco Solar, "PV Manufacturing
  Technology Options“

• Prasanth Sakhamuri, HHV Solar, "The case for equipment
  manufacturing in India - experience with thin film equipment
  & lines & the potential for cost reduction“

• Navakrishna Akkineni, Solar Semi, "Experience with Indian
  Manufacturers – Strategy & Opportunity"
Thank You

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Solarcon presentation(ver 1)

  • 1. Building a complete manufacturing eco- system in India November 10,2011 Madhavan Nampoothiri Energy Alternatives India
  • 2. “Has India missed the chance to become a PV manufacturing super- power?”
  • 3. Overview • Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand today? – Crystalline Silicon(Polysilicon to modules) – Thin Films – Balance of Systems(Inverters) – PV Manufacturing Equipment • What are the challenges to become a serious player? • Is policy support sufficient to make that happen?
  • 4. Solar PV – The evolution.. Annual Installations Annual production - Modules 90% 60% 80% 50% 70% Japan 60% 40% EU 50% USA Japan 30% 40% 30% 20% EU Rest of the 20% World Rest of the 10% World 10% USA China/Taiwan China/Taiwan 0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: EPIA Source: EPIA Cumulative Global Installations(2010): Share of global PV Production capacity(2010): Europe –30 GW (over 75%) China – more than 50% India – About 30 MW (less than 0.1%) India – Less than 5% (in modules)
  • 5. Global PV Manufacturing : Charging ahead!! C- Silicon Thin Films 60 China: 4.5 16 GW 54.0 52.3 4 50 India: 47.3 Moser Baer 60 MW 0.6 3.5 HHV (a-Si) GW 41.5 40.0 40 36.7 3 Capacity (GW) Capacity (GW) 32.9 2.5 Shurjo 30 28.2 China: 20 GW 2 20 1.5 India: 1 10 1.2 GW 0.5 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 PolySilicon Wafer Cell Module CdTe CIGS a- Si Source: iSuppli(May 2011) Source: GTM Research(May 2011)
  • 6. Global Inverters manufacturing: Not left behind.. Top Global Inverter Manufacturers Inverter Production Capacity vs. Solar PV Installed Capacity SMA SMA-35% Power One 45 SMA-40% Market Share(E) Kaco Market 40 Share Fronius 35 SMA-40% REFUsol Market 30 Share Satcon 25 Danfoss 20 Solarmax 15 Delta 10 Advanced Energy 5 Indian Scenario 0 2009 2010 2011 AEG Invertor capacity(GW) Installations(GW) Delta Electronics (WIP) DB Electronics
  • 7. PV Manufacturing equipment : European domination continues.. Rank Company Revenues Country ($Million) 1 Applied Materials 1495 USA 2 Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG 825 Germany 3 GT Solar Incorporated 775 USA 4 Meyer Burger^ 735 Switzerland 5 Gebr.Schmid GmbH+Co 570 Germany 6 Ulvac, Inc. 380 Japan 7 Roth & Rau AG* 325 Germany 8 RENA Sondermaschinen GmbH 300 Germany 9 48th Research Institute of CETC 295 China 10 Oerlikon Solar 195 Switzerland ^ Second after acquisition of R&R * To be acquired by Meyer Burger R&R sold CdTe coating division to undisclosed Chinese buyer List includes both c-Si and Thin Film capacities Source: VLSI Research HHV in India
  • 8. Indian PV manufacturing – The challenges Financial Operational Market
  • 9. Market Challenges – Dramatic price drops Manufacturing Operations $4.50 Highlights: $4.25 $4.00 $3.50 Excess capacity - Commodity manufacturing(almost) $3.00 - Standard off-the-shelf technology available $2.50 $2.60 $2.20 $2.00 $1.50 Key success factor: $1.20 $1.00 $1.00 $0.70 • Lead times in commissioning a unit $0.50 $0.45 $- $0.21 • Utilization rates 2008 2009 2010 2011(Q4) 2012(ASP • Infrastructure(ex. electricity) Estimate) Module($/W) Cell($/W) Wafer($/W) Polysilicon($/W) C-Si Investments and returns Cost Drivers Poly Silicon Ingot & Cells Module Module 8.0% 0.3% 89.0% 0.7% Wafer Investments/ Medium Medium High Low Cell 37.0% 3.0% 52.0% 5.0% MW Optimum Very High Medium Low Very Low Wafer 30.0% 4.0% 60.0% 4.0% production scale Polysilicon 45.0% 26.0% 17.0% 10.0% Margins High Medium Low Low 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Capex Depreciation Electricity Materials Labor Cost Others
  • 10. Market challenges Manufacturing Operations - Narrowing gap with c-Si Highlights - R&D intensive, not commodity manufacturing - Lower conversion efficiency - Standard production technology not available - a-Si : limited efficiency upside - Successful CdTe manufacturing tech proprietary - Cadmium : a carcinogen Success factors - CIGS : Not cost competitive yet • Lead times • High R&D • Sourcing of rare earth metals/raw materials Thin Investments and returns Films Cost Drivers a- Si CdTe CIGS CdTe Capital High Medium High CIGS Investments a Si Optimum Scale Low Low Low of Investment 0 20 40 60 80 100 Raw material and consumables Capital Depreciation & amortization Energy Labour Research & Development Others
  • 11. Policy support for Manufacturing Chinese Advantage Ontario, Canada • Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011) - Local content • No principal or interest payments for requirement first 5 years Italy • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of - 10% higher FiT CAPEX funded) Chinese Advantage for made in EU • Local content mandated for • Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011) manufacturing • No principal or interest payments for first 5 years USA • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of CAPEX India - Local content requirement under -Sunshot Initiative JNNSM -- DOE loans(eg. Solyndra) funded) -Incentives under Rajasthan policy • Local content mandated for manufacturing- Duty exemptions
  • 12. Half glass full or half glass empty? • Global PV manufacturing - Where does India stand ? o Crystalline Silicon – Negligible, but relatively better o Thin Films - Negligible o PV Manufacturing Equipment – Negligible o Inverters - Negligible • What are the challenges? o Market - Global excess capacity o Operational – Scaling up fast, continuous cost reduction, efficiency increases o Financial – Huge capex outlays, Low cost financing • Is policy support sufficient? o More can be done • Silver lining – We can only get better!!
  • 13. How can we get around the challenges? • Shammy Khan, VP Strategic Markets, Flextronics - "PV manufacturing- Outsource vs. InSource" • Dr. VS Gangadhara Rao, Lanco Solar, "PV Manufacturing Technology Options“ • Prasanth Sakhamuri, HHV Solar, "The case for equipment manufacturing in India - experience with thin film equipment & lines & the potential for cost reduction“ • Navakrishna Akkineni, Solar Semi, "Experience with Indian Manufacturers – Strategy & Opportunity"

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Add logos
  2. c
  3. What capacity(modules)? So 2008-2010 is enough ..
  4. http://solarpv.tv/watch/market-update-with-ihs-isuppli-the-pv-industry-and-the-solar-markets-in-2011-supplydemand-pricing-margins.html.. First two bars are empty for India currently… Unable to find data for 2011 module production capacity in India
  5. Not relevant because this is only for california. http://www.greenworldinvestor.com/2011/03/04/list-of-major-solar-inverter-manufacturers-competition-rising/, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ims_research_european_pv_inverter_manufactures_dominate_top_10_rankings,http://newenergynews.blogspot.com/2011/06/todays-study-suns-hardware-business.html, http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gOR_DQvuLEI/TfqJrt72vqI/AAAAAAAApHs/231OlekEtHs/s1600/6-911a.png
  6. Have to give the list differently. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinese_firm_breaks_into_vlsi_researchs_top_10_pv_equipment_supplier_rankin (country of origin)