1. UNWTO
General
Assembly
19th Session
Gyeongju
Republic of Korea
10 October 2011

2. Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend
World
International tourist arrivals
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
million
800 Actual 1995-2010*
600 940 mn
881 mn
400 528 mn
200
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

3. Tourism Towards 2030
• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area
of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
• Objectives:
– Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
– Provide a global reference on tourism future development
– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and
activities
• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in
the two decades 2010-2030
– Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of
origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with
international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent
variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence
and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

4. Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
12
10
10 9
9 9
8
8 7
7
7 7
6
6 6
6
6
4 5
4
4
4
4 3 3
3 3 3
2
2 1
0
0
0 0
0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

5. International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
80
70
58
60 56
49
45 45
39
40
33
30 28
27 26
25
22 21 20 22
20 20
20 15 16
13
10
8
4
0
0
0 -2 -1
-11
-20
-35
-40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

6. International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

7. Emerging economy destinations to surpass
advanced destinations in 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,250
1,000 emerging economies
750
advanced economies
500
250
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

8. Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
800
Europe
700
600
Asia and the Pacific
500
400
300
Americas
200
Middle East
100
Africa
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World T ourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

9. Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
1980
Middle East
Americas
Africa 3%
23%
3%
Asia and the Pacific
2010
8% Americas
16%
Asia and the Pacific
Middle East
22%
6%
Europe
2030
63% Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific
5% 14% 30%
Middle East
8%
Europe
51%
Africa
7%
Europe
41%

10. North-East Asia will be the most visited
subregion in 2030

11. Europe continues to lead in international
arrivals received per 100 of population

12. No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000
900 Leisure, recreation and holidays
800
700
600
500 VFR, health, religion, other
400
300
200
Business and professional
100
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

13. Air transport will continue to increase
market share, but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000
by air
750
over surface
500
250
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

14. Travel between regions continues to grow
slightly faster than within the same region
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
100
90
80
70 within same region
60
50
40
between regions
30
20
10
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

15. Asia and the Pacific will also be the
outbound region that grows most
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
900
1980 1995 2010 2030 832
800
700
600
541
509
500
400
308
300 265
204
200 160 169
110
90 88 81
100 71
30 25 37
6 12 6 10
0
Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

16. Outbound tourism participation is highest in
Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
100
1980 1995 2010 2030 89
90
80
70
60 57
50
40 36
30 24 25
22 21
20 17 17
14 14 12
12
9
10 6 6 5 6 6
1 2 3 3
1
0
World Africa Americas Asia and the Europe Middle East
Pacific
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

17. What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000
1,750 Actual data 1980-2010
Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
1,500 Central projection
Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
1,250 A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
1,000
750
500
250
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

18. One-Page Tourism Towards 2030
• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more
moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030),
as a result of four factors:
– The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers
– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature
– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP
– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for
further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new
destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do
shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business
environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.
• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and
economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
• Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and
inclusive

19. Tourism towards Thank you very much
2030 / for your attention!
Global Overview
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org