4. Why methods? Enable confidence in claims about future states Enable comparisons within futures work & establish common professional standards Transparency, legitimacy, trust
5. Why not methods? âTool trapâ (Graham Leicester, IFF) Using futures techniques to avoid hard questions âPeople want the tool, not the struggleâ (BCH/MFE) Can be misapplied Spurious credibility& legitimacy FS fundamentally interdisciplinary â no one set of âapprovedâ methods
6. Futures as a process Futures work not a single event Different techniques appropriate at different stages Ideally a continuous cycle Often limited by real-world constraints
11. Top-level process General framework Not definitive â enabling loose groupings of different methods to support todayâs discussion Looking at different ways of organising methods later on
12. Top-level process Finding a question Learning about the world Describing the present world Constructing futures Responding to futures narratives
19. Constructing futures Scenarios Multiple methods: different purposes Instances of outputs from models 2 x 2 grid Causal layered analysis Timelines Connecting present to future
21. The unexpected âBlack swansâ (Taleb) unpredictability of high-impact events âDragon kingsâ (Sornette) statistical outliers indicative of major system change Discontinuties, wild cards, shocks âunknown unknownsâ Tipping points, phase transitions âsocial analoguesâ (Sornette)
22. The unexpected Hard to reflect in scenario-based approaches Not detectable through trend extrapolation Emergent products of complexity Unlikely? Or unpalatable?
25. How long does it take? 3 years? 3 hours? Different methods require lengths of time Engagement time & preparation time different Dependencies on other methods & research Supports an open-ended and continuous process? Or moves towards a final destination?
26. FS traditions Empirical/analytic âdata-driven, positivistic, often corporateâ/RAND Critical/comparative Perhaps closest to education research? Activist/participatory Links with womenâs, peace & environmental groups Multicultural/global (Slaughter, Futures Beyond Dystopia ch. 3)
27. 6 concepts 6 pillars Used futures Disowned futures Alternative futures Alignment Models of social change Uses of the future Inayatullah (2008) Mapping Anticipation Timing Deepening Creating alternatives Transforming
29. Activities that... Address facts about the world Empirical, data-based Address beliefs about the world Social sci techniques Encourage conversation and dialogue Workshop approaches Describe relations between things Systems thinking Speak to the heart & imagination Time capsules, visualisation Value human existence & experience Ethnographic & participatory
30. Education research & futures Already encountered, and addressed, many epistemic and methodological difficulties FS beginning to recognise Already able to differentiate appropriate & valid methods â same criteria as other academic domains
31. No best answers Multiple perspectives and traditions within FS and broader futures work Multiple perspectives and traditions within education research as well Not appropriate to prescribe some methods over others So how to choose for a particular project?
32. Matching scope Whatâs the unit of analysis? Nation state, organisation, individual? Where does the influence of a technique or methodological perspective start and finish? End with policymakers? Only concerned with canvassing beliefs? What tasks is it designed to accomplish? Generating or communicating futures?
33. Matching worldviews How does a particular technique assume change happens in the world? What models of cause and effect are in play? âtrendsâ colliding & interacting sits uneasily with some social science perspectives âlevers of changeâ can seem simplistic Who are the actors in the futures generated?
34. Matching values How does a particular technique talk about people? Is it concerned with meeting the same ends? Does it help education meet ethical responsibility to promote action? Does it give any role to the people affected by the futures it contributes to?
35. Possible challenges Links between FS and education research clear Hard to sign up to the sort of social interventions FS can ask for Perceived danger of sounding naive Education research practice situated within the contexts that FS aims to challenge
36. Other fields Many other academic & professional disciplines with a temporal orientation Many other domains concerned with changing behaviour FS & education research both used to looking to other disciplines Geography, architecture, design, medicine...
37. Psychiatry Increasing attention given to mental health challenges raised by negative futures living in them and thinking about them âSolastalgiaâ â Glenn Albrecht Homesickness while in a (changed) home Notions of âresilienceâ more prominent âResilience in Social-Ecological Systems: The Role of Learning and Educationâ Krasnyet al. (Dec 10) C4 Education âSuper Meâ
38. Religion Existing cultural languages of deep time and consequence Useful as provocation or alternative view in supporting futures conversation Reaffirming (e.g. Inayatullah)âs insistence on recognising global diversity of worldviews
39. Fundamental question Does your chosen approach reaffirm the status quo? Or does it lead to questions you find uncomfortable?
Three strategy conditions selected (red) in order to examine which other strategy conditions are compatible (blue), and which scenarios these best match (blue in far-left âscenarioâ parameter). From http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/futures.pdf â Ritchey, 2009 âFutures Studies Using Morphological Analysisâ
