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eMarketer Webinar: Demystifying Mobile Attribution

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eMarketer Webinar: Demystifying Mobile Attribution

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Roughly 50% of client-side marketers said they are not measuring the return on their mobile marketing and media investment, let alone quantifying the contribution that mobile is making compared with traditional channels. One reason: Attribution with mobile in the mix is complicated. But it’s certainly not impossible. Topics in this webinar include: How are brands quantifying the value of mobile marketing and media? How can marketers approach attribution to accurately measure mobile? What are some of the biggest challenges and most effective workarounds for assigning conversion credit to mobile?

Roughly 50% of client-side marketers said they are not measuring the return on their mobile marketing and media investment, let alone quantifying the contribution that mobile is making compared with traditional channels. One reason: Attribution with mobile in the mix is complicated. But it’s certainly not impossible. Topics in this webinar include: How are brands quantifying the value of mobile marketing and media? How can marketers approach attribution to accurately measure mobile? What are some of the biggest challenges and most effective workarounds for assigning conversion credit to mobile?

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eMarketer Webinar: Demystifying Mobile Attribution

  1. 1. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Demystifying Mobile Attribution Cathy Boyle Senior Analyst, Mobile October 8, 2015
  2. 2. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Agenda  Defining attribution  The state of mobile attribution  Methods and models applied  Five missing links with mobile  Two unique elements to consider  The value of mobile (three brand examples)
  3. 3. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. A Working Definition of Attribution: A method of assigning credit to a particular marketing interaction, brand touchpoint or channel in order to quantify the contribution that interaction, touchpoint or channel makes toward a desired business goal
  4. 4. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The State of Mobile Attribution
  5. 5. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Marketing is as fractured across devices as consumers’ attention Data from Google’s servers indicates, “90% of people use multiple screens sequentially to accomplish a task.” Source: July 2015 interview with Surojit Chatterjee, Product Management Director, Mobile Search Ads and AdSense for Search, Google.
  6. 6. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Marketers are unsure how to assign credit to mobile marketing and media touchpoints “The way people transition between devices and mediums really puts a strain [on resources]. Our analysis shows consumers have to see something four times before they take action on it. How do we value each one of those engagements? It's increasingly difficult.” —Gabriella Weinstein, senior mobile product marketing manager at Rue La La
  7. 7. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. As a result, attribution has become downright difficult  Many marketers are not measuring the performance of mobile, let alone tackling attribution Roughly half of those polled were NOT measuring mobile engagement or return on investment
  8. 8. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The limited ability to track mobile ROI is holding marketers back from increasing mobile budgets
  9. 9. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. But it’s not impossible to measure and assign credit to mobile, along with other channels “I get that it’s hard. But it’s whining. Competitive advantage never came from having perfect information. The opportunity for brands to get a leg up on their competitors is now [before models and systems are perfected].” —Greg Stuart, CEO of the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA)
  10. 10. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Attribution Methods Used When Mobile Is Part of the Marketing Mix
  11. 11. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile’s contribution can’t be measured in a vacuum “Doing any kind of attribution in a silo is a huge mistake because you miss a large part of what is driving user behavior. You have to look at attribution holistically in order to get a good view of the value of all your media.” —Phil Gross, vice president of product management at Visual IQ, an attribution provider
  12. 12. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Marketers are blending two attribution methods To quantify the contribution made by mobile, along with other channels and devices, marketers typically employ two approaches: 1. Top-Down Modeling (marketing/media-mix modeling) – Input media spend for all channels, formats, gross rating points (GRPs), print exposures and other marketing impressions into a model – Can add in additional data points, including sales or external influences 2. Bottom-Up Modeling (path analysis) – Typically used to attribute digital advertising channels and formats, often down to the impression or ad creative level – Used as a means to optimize campaigns in as close to real time as possible – Used as a means of justifying and planning future buys
  13. 13. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Two “crediting” methods are used for path analysis—one simplistic, the other complex 1. Last-click attribution: An approach that assigns all conversion credit to the last marketing touchpoint a consumer interacted with prior to taking a desired action 2. Multitouch attribution: An approach that allocates credit proportionally to marketing touchpoints a consumer interacted with across platforms, channels and devices prior to the desired action
  14. 14. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Last-touch attribution is the most prevalent method used for assigning credit to mobile “We value and see the market moving toward a multitouch attribution model. The reality is the industry is a ways out from being able to support that from an infrastructure and a billing perspective. … It’s going to be a while before the industry is really able to handle that model on a broad basis.” —Justin Landis, director of content marketing for mobile attribution provider Kochava
  15. 15. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Five Missing Links and Two Unique Elements
  16. 16. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile attribution difficulties stem from the absence of five key elements 1. A single identifier to serve as a proxy for a person 2. Broad-scale access to impression-level data 3. Large-scale campaigns and large budgets, which produce large data sets for performance analysis 4. Clarity on the right metrics to measure 5. Websites as the primary destination and point of sale
  17. 17. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. In addition, two unique elements in mobile need to be considered when it comes to attribution 1. The app stores as gatekeepers 2. Phone calls as an integral means of response Examples bring the challenges and solutions to life…
  18. 18. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Example Goal: Raise Brand Awareness Target audience: Mobile mothers ages 24 to 35 Media Mix: Mobile display ads served in-app and on mobile websites Devices: Smartphones and tablets Three key performance indicators (KPIs):  Visits to the Love-Me-Feed-Me mobile website  Visits to the Love-Me-Feed-Me app  Reach and frequency of brand exposures among that target audience Company: Pet food manufacturer (fictitious) Image source: Clipart Panda Love Feed
  19. 19. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #1: Conducting path analysis without the comfort of cookies In-App ID Web ID  Mobile has unique app and web ID’s  To report accurate reach, frequency of exposure and clickthroughs, app and mobile web ID’s need to be “stitched” together  Exception: Publishers with user-generated ID’s that span channels User ID Others
  20. 20. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #2: Mothers likely use both a smartphone and tablet 58% of US smartphone users also use a tablet, according to eMarketer estimates Smartphone ID’s Tablets ID’s
  21. 21. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #3: More limited sharing of impression-level data in mobile vs. desktop Number of viewable impressions served prior to the last click …when they were served …to which sites or apps …to which device IDs “Brands care about different metrics, not just click. They want to understand the effects of exposure data, and there are challenges today around measuring that in mobile.” —Rob Friedlander, co-founder and CMO of Phluant Mobile, an advertising solutions provider Not always provided
  22. 22. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile differs from desktop in the number of firms with Media Ratings Council accreditation “Yes, mobile impression data is hard. The proof is that only one company has been MRC accredited to deliver and count [display, rich media and video impressions and clicks] correctly in mobile over the last two years.” —Richy Glassberg, CEO of Medialets, an MRC-accredited buy-side ad server for mobile display, rich media and video impressions
  23. 23. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Example Goal: Drive App Downloads Company: Boutique Hotel Chain (fictitious) Image source: Clipart Panda CuteSpot Target audience: Recent first-time guests Media Mix: Paid and owned mobile media and marketing Two KPIs:  The number of installs generated by the target audience  The number of bookings made from the new app users
  24. 24. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #1: The app store being in the middle of the conversion process To properly credit the source of the install: The ID detected from the ad is, in most cases, matched against the ID detected when the app is first opened CuteSpot Install Now Get Two Free Nights in Paradise Suggested App Ad Tracking via:  App ID  Web ID  Probabilistic ID Install Tracking via:  App ID  Google Referrer (Android) No tracking within the app stores
  25. 25. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #2: Understanding the influence of the app’s profile in the app store At this point, the affect the app profile has on conversion rates of app-install ads is not directly quantifiable CuteSpot Boutique Hotel Bequia, Grenadines
  26. 26. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #3: The scope of analysis is often limited to purchases made only in the app “Through reporting mechanisms advertisers can connect all the dots. So if the [app] user goes on to make a purchase on the website or in the store, they can report that back to us and have that included in the data about that user.” To gauge the true value of the install and the media source, all bookings made post-install need to be taken into consideration —Daniel Kahtan, director of sales and business development at AppsFlyer, a mobile app attribution provider
  27. 27. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Example Goal: Increase sales Company: Home goods retailer (fictitious) Image source: Clipart Panda NestNuggets Target audience: Recent buyers Media Mix: Paid and owned mobile media and marketing Two KPIs:  Increase mobile commerce sales from their mobile storefronts (mobile website and app)  Increase in-store sales
  28. 28. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #1: The length of the attribution window “If they go down the app download path, they may find that their conversion rates drop vs. just sending them to the mobile web. They may want to look at a longer-term horizon, because that [app] user may have a greater lifetime value.” —Jason Hicks, vice president of marketing and client services at Kochava “Best experience” “Acceptable experience” Shorter path to purchase Longer path to purchase if app not already installed
  29. 29. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #2: The impact phone calls have on conversions needs to factored in  93 billion calls will be made to businesses in the US from smartphones in 2015  Up 23% from 2014
  30. 30. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Challenge #3: How to quantify the impact of mobile on in-store sales  Mobile devices influenced or helped to convert about $970 billion in US sales  Represents 28% of the 2014 total “You would be shocked how many marketers still don’t know that you can trace an ad on a mobile phone all the way to an offline transaction in a store.” —Tim Jenkins, CEO of 4Info
  31. 31. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. “In some of the cases, brands only had 1% of their budget going into mobile. That may drive behavior, but it becomes almost a rounding error in some of these models compared to what television might be influencing.” —Rex Briggs, founder and CEO of Marketing Evolution Challenge #4: Limited data sets produced by mobile campaigns
  32. 32. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The Value of Mobile for Four Brands
  33. 33. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.  Mobile was second only to TV in creating the image that MasterCard was a “good card to carry when traveling”  Per dollar spent, mobile worked almost twice as hard (1.7x) compared with the campaign average in respect to building this brand image Source: Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), “Smart Mobile Cross Marketing Effectiveness (SMoX) Study,” May 2015
  34. 34. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.  Mobile exceeded broadcast and cable TV in creating the intent to shop  Mobile drove 14% of the change in overall shopping intent despite [receiving] only 7% of the spend Source: Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), “Smart Mobile Cross Marketing Effectiveness (SMoX) Study,” May 2015
  35. 35. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.  Mobile drove 25% of “top-of-mind” awareness  6% of sales with 5% of [the overall] budget  Compared with the campaign average, mobile generated nearly five times (4.8x) the level of top-of-mind awareness Source: Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), “Smart Mobile Cross Marketing Effectiveness (SMoX) Study,” May 2015
  36. 36. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Key takeaway: All the brands could increase their ROI by shifting more money into mobile “Given what we've seen so far [from the SMoX study], most brand categories should be spending more in mobile.” —Rex Briggs, founder and CEO of Marketing Evolution
  37. 37. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Conclusions  There is widespread agreement that attribution with mobile in the mix is a complex and resource-intensive undertaking  The pitfall to avoid is believing there is a perfect methodology, tool or answer  Any move that will provide more clarity on mobile’s contribution is worth taking, as evidenced by the results of the brand studies
  38. 38. © 2014 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Andrew Koperwas Product Marketing Manager koperwas@adobe.com Twitter: @koperwas
  39. 39. © 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Analytics – Mobile App Analytics • App-centric user interface for mobile teams lets you use: • Pathing analysis to understand which screens and UI elements are more frequently used • Cohort analysis to understand behavior of cohorts over time who download app during the same period • Analyze user acquisition by: • Campaign source • Specific campaign • Source and device model
  40. 40. © 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Analytics Cross-Channel Attribution • Stitch together marketing and customer data from both offline and online sources • Ability to use rules-based models (e.g. first/last, u-shaped) or algorithmic attribution • Analyze customer interactions (not just campaigns) – across paid, earned and owned sources • Combine with all of Adobe Analytics – • Anomaly detection • Contribution analysis • Segmentation • Propensity scoring
  41. 41. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports and an upcoming webinar you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Cathy Boyle Demystifying Mobile Attribution  Cross-Platform Attribution 2015: Device Identification, Big Data Pose Continued Challenges  Cross-Device Targeting: Success Hinges on Device Identification Methods  Mobile Audience Targeting: Have Industry Advances Raised Advertisers' Confidence Levels?  Upcoming Webinar: Making Attribution Work in the Age of Big Data, October 22, 2015

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