1. 1
TERM PAPER
“HR
Scenarios & Business Model”
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

2. 2
At first, The use of HR Scenarios & Business Model in Strategic HR
decision making can also make through this steps
A. Creating HR Scenarios Processes
1. Trends analysis (We identify the predetermined
elements from the list of driving forces)
The Driving force Factors
Technology
Trade liberalization
Connectivity
Digitization
Global Competition
Growing entrepreneurship
The increasing power of Top Talent
Business Model Innovations
from emerging market
The success rate of Innovation
(or Top Firms)
*www.ere.net
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

3. 3
V – Volatility (Business demanding)
( The nature of Corporation, Speed, Dynamic of Change)
V1
V2
V3
Uncertainty/ Business supply side
Unstable
(The lack of forecast on critical issues)
U1
U2
U3
Complexity – Operation factors
( The issues or uncertainty of company environment)
C1
C2
C3
Ambiguity – Process and Technology in the future
(The mixed of significant factors)
A1
A2
A3
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

4. 4
3. Analyze Trends
Trends Analysis
Impact (1)
Weight (2)
Product (1) x (2)
Certainty
C1
C2
C3
Uncertainty
UC1
UC2
UC3
UC4
UC5
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

5. 5
4. Writing the Scenario 2x2 Matrix
The scenario matrix builds and visualizes four scenarios based on two key uncertainty
factors.
Scenario 2x2 Matrix
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

6. 6
5. Scenario – Strategy Matrix
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013

7. 7
B. Designing the HR Business Model
Discuss and evaluate relevant key main elements from the 9 cells in
HR Business Model Template.
Term paper :The 2025 HR Vision Dr.Danai Thieanphut : Copyright 2013