Bishop Philip Poole presented at the 2012 Clergy Conference on sustainable and strategic ministry. He discussed how only 17% of congregations have experienced growth while many are experiencing declines in attendance of over 25% or 50%. With over half of clergy eligible to retire in the next 10 years, resources may not be enough to sustain all congregations. New approaches are needed to reach more Canadians and reverse attendance losses.

1. Clergy Conference 2012
Presentation by Bishop Philip Poole
Conference Session 1: Stepping Out of the Boat

2. Sustainable & Strategic
Ministry Policy
Have the resources
(people, buildings, spiritual health, money)
To carry out their mission.
+
Static R
e
Sustainable
No clear mission to s Able to articulate and
context. Mission o demonstrate a vital
Inward looking, - + mission and ministry
maintenance focussed
u appropriate to the
r context
c
Unsustainable e
Strategic
-
Lack resources to
carry out their mission

3. The Current Reality

4.  8% of congregations  39% experienced a
have experienced decline of less than 25%
catastrophic decline in  17% experienced
attendance in excess of numeric growth.
50%,  Total average Sunday
 36% of congregations attendance declined
experienced alarming 5,355 people from
levels of decline in 28, 605 to 23,250.
excess of 25%.

5. Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009
Sunday Easter Poly. (Sunday) Poly. (Easter)
58906 59254 58459
53628
52368
51053 50633 49639
47889
46704
28605 28663
27272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

6. Year Full-Time Clergy
2001 209
2002 215
2003 207
Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility
2004 199
12%
2005 190 10%
9.7%
8%
2006 187
6%
5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6%
2007 190 4% 4.6% 3.7%
3.7%
3.2% 2.8% 2.8%
2008 184 2%
0%
2009 186
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2010 179
Numerical 30
Change
Percentage 14% decrease
Change

7. Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-time
Already Retired 14 6.5%
2011 21 9.7% 11 169
2012 11 5.1% 6 164
2013 7 3.2%
2014 10 4.6%
2015 11 5.1%
2016 6 2.8%
2017 8 3.7%
2018 8 3.7%
2019 10 4.6%
2020 10 4.6%
2021 6 2.8%
2011-21 122 56.5%

8.  Decline has been  However the smaller
masked by parishes congregations with reduced
shifting size typologies staff are still trying to
and down-sizing staff, maintain buildings that are
we have seen the much too large for their
disappearance of 30 needs.
full-time and 20 part-
time incumbencies in
This will inevitably lead to
the last 10 years.
crises like we have seen at
St. Stephen in the Fields, St.
Clement Riverdale, St.
Wilfrid and others where the
congregation finally folds
leaving the physical plant
completely degraded and
unusable.

9.  More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age
cohort either have no religion or never attend a
service of worship, says Statistics Canada.
 Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to
them, down from 34 per cent in 2002.
 What growth there has been in religious
participation has been due to immigration.
Unfortunately for us, the current source
countries for immigration are not predominantly
Christian let alone Anglican.

10.  Full time planter to Mandarin Population
 New Church Plant underway in Ajax
 Internal church plant to “Urban Trend-setters”
downtown
 Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two
historic downtown parishes
 Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham
 Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning
 Missional Transformation Process
(14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)

11. So, where’s the growth?

12.  Layering of age-cohort data over congregational
statistics has pointed out some further areas of
concern:
o Identified 11 congregations that are
terminal, continuous significant decline beyond
likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain
ministry and plant
o 15 congregations in peril – significant continuing
decline in ASA makes sustainability
unlikely, concerning age profile with significant
number of congregation over 65

13. Where is the greatest decline?
York Mills Scarborough
-420 -660
Eglinton
-582
Etobicoke
-412

14. "Toto, I've
a feeling
we're not
in Kansas
anymore."