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Sharing Practices on ERM

                                   By Diane Christina
                  @ Magister Manajemen UNPAR, 2009


                                           . Diane Christina .
© DC, 2009
ERM Universe
                                             - the example

                                                                                             ò   Mergers & acquisition
                                                                                             ò   Innovation program
                                                                               PLANS         ò   Business transformation
                                                                                             ò   Go Public / IPO


      PHYSICAL                                      Strategic Risks
       ASSETS



                                                                                                        FINANCES
  ò   equipment failure
  ò   infrastructure         Technical       Operational       Commercial        Financial
  ò   natural perils           Risks           Risks             Risks           Controls                  ò   treasury
                                                                                   Risks                   ò   accounting
                                                                                                           ò   systems
                                                                                                           ò   fraud


                                                           ò   suppliers
          HUMAN                              Error         ò   customers
                                         ò
                                                               government                    RELATIONSHIPS
         FACTORS                         ò   safety        ò


                                         ò   health        ò   stakeholder
                                         ò   selection     ò   third parties
                                         ò   skills        ò   competitors


diane.christina1@gmail.com                                                                                     © DC, 2009
Lesson Learned
                                      - Published Information

 Source: Kompas Online                                                 Semen Gresik        Source: CSIS Online
 22 May 2006                                                                Vs             31 March 2005
                                                                          Cemex


PLN’s electricity                                    Strategic Risks
    failure


                                                                                                Jamsostek bad
                                                                                                 Investment on
                                                                                               Commercial Paper
                                Technical   Operational       Commercial     Financial
                                  Risk        Risks             Risks        Controls
                                                                               Risks         Source: Harian Bisnis
                                                                                             Indonesia, 06 July 2006




   PT Kereta Api
                                                                                          Garuda Airlines
 Train Crash high                                                                        Debts restructuring
     frequency
                             Source: Kompas Online              Source: Tempo Interaktif
                             14 November 2003                   07 Dec 2005


diane.christina1@gmail.com                                                                               © DC, 2009
Pre-requisite of Effective ERM




diane.christina1@gmail.com   © DC, 2009
Risk Governance Framework
 Laying down the foundation…             Risk Management
                                         Awareness & Culture
           Risk Governance
              Framework                              Risk Language
                                                     Definition of Risks



                                                   Risk Philosophy
                                                   Basic attitude towards risk, should be
                                                   aligned with Vision & Mission and
                                                   Business Strategy.




  Risk Management                             Risk Tolerance/Appetite
  Policies        Risk Management
                                              The level of risk the company is willing to
                  Organization & Functions    accept in order to achieve its Business
                                              Strategy.The desired Risk Profile of the
                                              Enterprise
diane.christina1@gmail.com                                                     © DC, 2009
Risk Tolerance vs Risk Appetite

   A company that says that it is does not accept risks that could
    result in a significant loss of its revenue base is expressing
    appetite

   A company says that it does not wish to accept risks that would
    cause revenue from its top-10 customers to decline by more than
    10% it is expressing tolerance


         They seem to view Risk Appetite as being primarily
           qualitative and Risk Tolerance as quantitative


      diane.christina1@gmail.com                              © DC, 2009
Risk Appetite & Tolerance
                                                   – illustration




                  Besar
                  Sagat
                                   T          T             E             E             E



                            5
                   Besar                  5          10           15          20             25


                            4
                                   M           T            T             E             E
   Probabilitas




                                          4           8           12          16             20
                   Sedang




                                   R          M             T             E             E
                            3




                                          3           6             9         12             15
                   Kecil




                                   R          R             M             T             E
                            2




                                          2           4             6            8           10   Risk tolerance
                  Sangat




                                   R           R            M             T             T
                  Kecil

                            1




                                          1           2             3            4           5

                                    1          2             3            4              5

                                  Tidak       Agak        Berat         Sangat       Malapetaka
                                  Berat       Berat                     Berat

diane.christina1@gmail.com                                Akibat                                        © DC, 2009
Risk Management Infrastructure
Develop the laying Infrastructure


                                          Methodology
          Risk Governance
           Infrastructure




                                                    Technology & Tools




                             Procedures
       Reports


diane.christina1@gmail.com                                               © DC, 2009
Sample of RM Report




diane.christina1@gmail.com                  © DC, 2009
Sample of RM Report




 Source: iRisQ – Enterprise Risk Management System


diane.christina1@gmail.com                                          © DC, 2009
Source: iRisQ – Enterprise Risk Management System
                                                                                 Sample of RM Report




                                                    diane.christina1@gmail.com                  © DC, 2009
Risk Management Process



             Monitor &                  Identify   Identify
                             Monitor
               Report                              Map




                   Risk       Manage               Measure &
                                       Assess
             Treatment                             Evaluate




diane.christina1@gmail.com                                     © DC, 2009
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ERM
ERM Implementation: Road Map
                                         Corporate
                                       Vision, Mission,        Corporate Risk
                                       Objectives, and      Strategy & Appetite/                   Validation /
                                          Strategies             Tolerance
 Continuous                                                                                       Reassessment
Improvement




   Boards’ Briefing                       Risk Control Assessment Framework        Project Risk Management
   Awareness Program                      Enterprise Risk Assessment               Financial Risk Assessment
   Risk Manual - Policy - Procedures      Business Process Improvement             Strategic Risk Management
   Preliminary Risk Assessment            Risk Manual - Policy - Procedures        Risk Management Maturity
                                                                                   Assessment


                        Risk Management Governance & Infrastructure

                                 GETTING RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING                                                © DC, 2009
Risk Management in Practice
                                                             -Setting the context



External Events                    1        2       3               = opportunity

                                                                    = threats

Base                                                               Objective

Residual Risks                         1        2        3


Control


Inherent Risks                         1        2        3


Process                       P1           P2       P3       P4

 diane.christina1@gmail.com                                               © DC, 2009
Risk Management in Practice
                                                            - Determine the criteria



Likelihood              1 Year               Consequence Earning

Almost Never                     0 – 20 %    Minor                  0 – 37 Billion

Unlikely                     21 – 40 %       Moderate              38 – 74 Billion

Possible                     41 – 60 %       Severe              75 – 111 Billion

Likely                       61 – 80 %       Major              112 – 149 Billion

Almost Certain               81 – 100 %      Catastrophic           > 150 Billion




diane.christina1@gmail.com                                                    © DC, 2009
The Risk Unit Measurement
                                       - The Consequence of Risk




diane.christina1@gmail.com                               © DC, 2009
The Risk Unit Measurement
                                         - The Likelihood of Risk




diane.christina1@gmail.com                                © DC, 2009
Table of Risk and Mitigation
                                                                         - illustration of certain Investment

 No            Risk Description     Inherent Risk                      Control               Residual Risk   Remark
                                     C         L                                              C        L
2.1.      Delay of FC against        5         5    - lobby                                   5        4     - lobby
          commercial operation                      - equity                                                 - equity
2.2.      Concession is with-        5         5    - lobby                                   5        3     - lobby
          drawn by government
2.3.      Forex loss if US$          5         3    Contract addendum, back-to-back           1        1     Contract
          > Rp 9.200,-/US$                          with supplier/contractor                                 Addendum
2.4.      Shortfall of assumption    5         3    Insurance - only for debt-cost-service    5        2     Update
                                                    Early warning system, & campaign                         regularly
2.5.      Delay Start-Up (DSU)       5         5    Insurance - only for debt-cost-service    5        4     Update
                                                    Tight project management                                 regularly
2.6.      Interest expenses          5         3    Tight control over Cash-Flow whilst       3        2     Financial
          fluctuation - no hedge                    at the same time seeking a                               Risk
                                                    possibility of hedging.                                  Mgt
2.7.      Cost Over - Run            5         3    Tight Financial Management and            4        2     Financial
                                                    Cash-Flow control throughout the                         Risk
                                                    commercial operation                                     Mgt
2.8.      Equity Participation       5         3    Confirmation of Equity participation      2        2     BoC and
          is not as expected                        to be made as early as possible,                         BoD
                                                    in early 2008
       diane.christina1@gmail.com                                                                              © DC, 2009
The Risk Matrix
                                              - Inherent - Residual – Treated -
                certain                                                                                      Contoh Profil Risiko:
                Almost
                                                                     3                          4

                                      5
                                                                                                    1 1      1.   Analisa dan evaluasi kinerja
                                                  5             10           15         20              25        keuangan tidak akurat
                                                                                                                  (Akuntansi)
                  Likely




                                                                     3   4        2 2                        2.   Terjadinya double
                                      4


                                                                                                                  pembayaran pajak pada
                                                  4             8            12         5
                                                                                        16              20        saat melakukan pembelian
Likelihood




                                                                                                                  atau pengadaan barang dari
                  Unlikely Possible




                                                                                                                  importir
                                      3




                                                                                        5                         (Pengadaan)
                                                  3             6            9          12              15   3.   Evaluasi Biaya Umum
                                                                                                                  Kantor Pusat tidak tepat
                                                                                                                  waktu
                                                                                                                  (Akuntansi)
                                      2




                                                            1            5
                                                  2             4            6              8           10   4.   Terjadinya biaya
                                                                                                                  penumpukan material impor
                                                                                                                  (demurage)
                Almost




                                          4       2     3
                 never




                                                                                                                  (Pengadaan)
                                      1




                                                  1                                                     5
                                                                                                             5.   Terjadi kegagalan tahapan
                                                                2            3              4
                                                                                                                  financial closed dari masing-
                                              1             2            3          4               5             masing pihak yang berperan
                                                                                                                  dalam pendanaan proyek
                                                                                                                  investasi
                                          Minor       Moderate        Severe      Major Catastrophic              (Pengembangan Bisnis)


             diane.christina1@gmail.com                         Consequence                                                      © DC, 2009
Need more information about your risk
management, drop your email to:

diane.christina@apb-group.com

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Sharing Practice on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)

  • 1. Sharing Practices on ERM By Diane Christina @ Magister Manajemen UNPAR, 2009 . Diane Christina . © DC, 2009
  • 2. ERM Universe - the example ò Mergers & acquisition ò Innovation program PLANS ò Business transformation ò Go Public / IPO PHYSICAL Strategic Risks ASSETS FINANCES ò equipment failure ò infrastructure Technical Operational Commercial Financial ò natural perils Risks Risks Risks Controls ò treasury Risks ò accounting ò systems ò fraud ò suppliers HUMAN Error ò customers ò government RELATIONSHIPS FACTORS ò safety ò ò health ò stakeholder ò selection ò third parties ò skills ò competitors diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 3. Lesson Learned - Published Information Source: Kompas Online Semen Gresik Source: CSIS Online 22 May 2006 Vs 31 March 2005 Cemex PLN’s electricity Strategic Risks failure Jamsostek bad Investment on Commercial Paper Technical Operational Commercial Financial Risk Risks Risks Controls Risks Source: Harian Bisnis Indonesia, 06 July 2006 PT Kereta Api Garuda Airlines Train Crash high Debts restructuring frequency Source: Kompas Online Source: Tempo Interaktif 14 November 2003 07 Dec 2005 diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
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  • 5. Pre-requisite of Effective ERM diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 6. Risk Governance Framework Laying down the foundation… Risk Management Awareness & Culture Risk Governance Framework Risk Language Definition of Risks Risk Philosophy Basic attitude towards risk, should be aligned with Vision & Mission and Business Strategy. Risk Management Risk Tolerance/Appetite Policies Risk Management The level of risk the company is willing to Organization & Functions accept in order to achieve its Business Strategy.The desired Risk Profile of the Enterprise diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 7. Risk Tolerance vs Risk Appetite  A company that says that it is does not accept risks that could result in a significant loss of its revenue base is expressing appetite  A company says that it does not wish to accept risks that would cause revenue from its top-10 customers to decline by more than 10% it is expressing tolerance They seem to view Risk Appetite as being primarily qualitative and Risk Tolerance as quantitative diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 8. Risk Appetite & Tolerance – illustration Besar Sagat T T E E E 5 Besar 5 10 15 20 25 4 M T T E E Probabilitas 4 8 12 16 20 Sedang R M T E E 3 3 6 9 12 15 Kecil R R M T E 2 2 4 6 8 10 Risk tolerance Sangat R R M T T Kecil 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Tidak Agak Berat Sangat Malapetaka Berat Berat Berat diane.christina1@gmail.com Akibat © DC, 2009
  • 9. Risk Management Infrastructure Develop the laying Infrastructure Methodology Risk Governance Infrastructure Technology & Tools Procedures Reports diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 10. Sample of RM Report diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 11. Sample of RM Report Source: iRisQ – Enterprise Risk Management System diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 12. Source: iRisQ – Enterprise Risk Management System Sample of RM Report diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 13. Risk Management Process Monitor & Identify Identify Monitor Report Map Risk Manage Measure & Assess Treatment Evaluate diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 15. ERM Implementation: Road Map Corporate Vision, Mission, Corporate Risk Objectives, and Strategy & Appetite/ Validation / Strategies Tolerance Continuous Reassessment Improvement Boards’ Briefing Risk Control Assessment Framework Project Risk Management Awareness Program Enterprise Risk Assessment Financial Risk Assessment Risk Manual - Policy - Procedures Business Process Improvement Strategic Risk Management Preliminary Risk Assessment Risk Manual - Policy - Procedures Risk Management Maturity Assessment Risk Management Governance & Infrastructure GETTING RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING © DC, 2009
  • 16. Risk Management in Practice -Setting the context External Events 1 2 3 = opportunity = threats Base Objective Residual Risks 1 2 3 Control Inherent Risks 1 2 3 Process P1 P2 P3 P4 diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 17. Risk Management in Practice - Determine the criteria Likelihood 1 Year Consequence Earning Almost Never 0 – 20 % Minor 0 – 37 Billion Unlikely 21 – 40 % Moderate 38 – 74 Billion Possible 41 – 60 % Severe 75 – 111 Billion Likely 61 – 80 % Major 112 – 149 Billion Almost Certain 81 – 100 % Catastrophic > 150 Billion diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 18. The Risk Unit Measurement - The Consequence of Risk diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 19. The Risk Unit Measurement - The Likelihood of Risk diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 20. Table of Risk and Mitigation - illustration of certain Investment No Risk Description Inherent Risk Control Residual Risk Remark C L C L 2.1. Delay of FC against 5 5 - lobby 5 4 - lobby commercial operation - equity - equity 2.2. Concession is with- 5 5 - lobby 5 3 - lobby drawn by government 2.3. Forex loss if US$ 5 3 Contract addendum, back-to-back 1 1 Contract > Rp 9.200,-/US$ with supplier/contractor Addendum 2.4. Shortfall of assumption 5 3 Insurance - only for debt-cost-service 5 2 Update Early warning system, & campaign regularly 2.5. Delay Start-Up (DSU) 5 5 Insurance - only for debt-cost-service 5 4 Update Tight project management regularly 2.6. Interest expenses 5 3 Tight control over Cash-Flow whilst 3 2 Financial fluctuation - no hedge at the same time seeking a Risk possibility of hedging. Mgt 2.7. Cost Over - Run 5 3 Tight Financial Management and 4 2 Financial Cash-Flow control throughout the Risk commercial operation Mgt 2.8. Equity Participation 5 3 Confirmation of Equity participation 2 2 BoC and is not as expected to be made as early as possible, BoD in early 2008 diane.christina1@gmail.com © DC, 2009
  • 21. The Risk Matrix - Inherent - Residual – Treated - certain Contoh Profil Risiko: Almost 3 4 5 1 1 1. Analisa dan evaluasi kinerja 5 10 15 20 25 keuangan tidak akurat (Akuntansi) Likely 3 4 2 2 2. Terjadinya double 4 pembayaran pajak pada 4 8 12 5 16 20 saat melakukan pembelian Likelihood atau pengadaan barang dari Unlikely Possible importir 3 5 (Pengadaan) 3 6 9 12 15 3. Evaluasi Biaya Umum Kantor Pusat tidak tepat waktu (Akuntansi) 2 1 5 2 4 6 8 10 4. Terjadinya biaya penumpukan material impor (demurage) Almost 4 2 3 never (Pengadaan) 1 1 5 5. Terjadi kegagalan tahapan 2 3 4 financial closed dari masing- 1 2 3 4 5 masing pihak yang berperan dalam pendanaan proyek investasi Minor Moderate Severe Major Catastrophic (Pengembangan Bisnis) diane.christina1@gmail.com Consequence © DC, 2009
  • 22. Need more information about your risk management, drop your email to: diane.christina@apb-group.com