The document summarizes key economic indicators and financial factors for US agriculture in 2015, including commodity prices, interest rates, land values, the domestic and world economies. It discusses talent, technology, and risk management as important considerations for farm financial management. Specific indicators mentioned are lower corn, soybean, and wheat prices compared to 2013, lower oil prices, declining interest rates, and moderate home price and inflation increases projected for 2015.

1. Current Ag Financial
Climate: Economic
Indicators to Watch
2015 Women Managing the Farm
Amy Gales, EVP Regional Agribusiness
CoBank
February 5, 2015

2.  Indicators
 Commodity Prices
 Interest Rates
 Land values & Cash Rent
 Domestic Economy
 World Economy
 Talent
 Technology
 Risk Management
 Financial Management
Indicators to Watch—As you Manage your Farm
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3. Norwegian Icebreaker
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As you may have seen on the news it's been very cold in the Midwest …..So cold, in
fact, that the City Government has borrowed a Norwegian Icebreaker to clear
the Mississipppi River for fishing and migrating waterfowl.

4. December 2013 December 2014
Economy
U.S. real GDP
growth
 1.9% 9 months 2013 actual (annualized)
 2.5% - 2.9% 2014 forecast
 2.7% 9 months 2014 actual (annualized)
 3.0% - 3.1% 2015 forecast (IMF & World Bank)
10-yr U.S.
Treasury
 3.03%
 A new high for 2013
 2.17%
Future interest
rates
 4.69% January 2019 5-year swap rate forecast  2.79% January 2020 5-year swap rate forecast
Home prices  10% increase projected for 2014  3% - 4% increase projected for 2015
Unemployment  7.00% (November)  5.80% (November)
Inflation  1.31% Core PCE (November)  1.41% Core PCE (November)
Commodity
Prices*
Corn  $4.28/bu  $3.97/bu
Soybeans  $13.32/bu  $10.19/bu
Wheat  $6.09/bu  $5.90/bu
Oil (WTI)  $98.42/bbl  $53.27/bbl
Volatility and Uncertainty Continue
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* Nearby future prices

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* Nearby future prices

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* Nearby future prices

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* Nearby future prices

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* Nearby future prices

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* Nearby future prices

10. Interest Rate Yield Curve
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11. 10 Year Interest Rates
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12. Interest rate movements have two important
impacts on farmland values
Expected
Farm Income
Capitalization
Rates
Farmland
Values
=÷Interest
Rates

13. Sale Price Cash Rent
2006 $1200 $74
2007 $1260 $82
2008 $1450 $92
2009 $1500 $89
2010 $1600 $95
2011 $1900 $105
2012 $2400 $119
2013 $3000 $137
2014 $3280 $126
Kansas Price Per Acre-Irrigated Cropland
Kansas Agricultural Statistical Districts
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16. Value of the Dollar
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17. “If I were running a company today, I would have one priority above all
others: to acquire as many of the best people as I could …[because] the
single biggest constraint on the success of my organization is the ability to
get and to hang on to enough of the right people.” — Jim Collins
Talent and Engagement
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18.  “If automobiles had followed the same development cycle as the
computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get a million miles per
gallon, and explode once a year, killing everyone inside” ~ Robert
Cringely
Technology
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19. Information Technology in Agriculture
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20. Questions?