Gilbert White Lecture, 2018, National Academy of Sciences
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Friday, December 7, 3:30 - 4:30 pm, 2018, The National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC As sea surface temperatures rise, we are ever mindful of how this process fuels larger and more frequent storms and storm surges in the world’s oceans. These storms grab headlines, but also the attention of policy makers, if only briefly and often in a reactionary rather than prescriptive sense. In the United States, rarely are we focused on the U.S. Territories, where U.S. citizens and nationals are also deeply affected. This lecture discusses how we have yet to use past experiences in the U.S. Territories to fully enrich our knowledge of hazard adaptation and in ways that will improve our policy, practice, and decision-making. Available on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U89XhIHmF4k
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Gilbert White Lecture, 2018, National Academy of Sciences
- 1. 2018 Gilbert F. White Lecture Geographical Sciences Committee National Academy of Sciences December 7, 2018 Dawn J. Wright, Ph.D. Environmental Systems Research Institute (aka Esri) and Oregon State University A Turn to the Territories … featuring a Cautionary Tale of the 2009 American Samoa Tsunami
- 3. Index map courtesy of the National Park of American Samoa
- 4. Artwork by Jayne Doucette, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Index map courtesy of National Park of American Samoa
- 5. Tectonic Setting Convergence Rate Near Epicenter = 86 mm/yr (3.4 in) http://earthquake.usgs.gov Lay et al., 2009, AGU USGS
- 6. September 29, 2009 6:48 a.m. local time, M8.1 9 deaths in Tonga, 149 in Samoa, 39 in American Samoa Deadliest in history, $150 million damage Visualization from OSU Davey Jones Locker; Data from Sandwell and Smith, 1997, Estimated Bathymetry, v. 12.1, ve=6
- 7. Complex Bathymetry near Epicenter Wright et al., 2000
- 8. • occurred as a normal fault rupture on or near the outer rise of the subducting Pacific plate • normal fault solution consistent w/bathy; existing fault rather than plate bending • 14 m of slip on seafloor! M8.1 Rupture extended through entire crust Geist et al., 2009, AGU; Furlong et al., 2009, AGU; Lay et al., 2009, AGU Third largest normal quake ever on outer rise after: 1933 Sanriku, Japan - M8.4 1977 Sumba, Indonesia - M8.3 1917 Tonga – M8.3 - Last big quake to produce as large a tsunami The Earthquake GNS Science/U. of Otago, New Zealand
- 9. From gCaptain’s Tsunami Infographics, Best of the Web, http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/tsunami-info-graphics/ Tsunami Generation How a Tsunami Forms Height of the Wave
- 10. Tsunami Wave Simulation Eric Geist, USGS Menlo Park http://bit.ly/akKzYn
- 12. Historical Tsunami Propagation NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Real-Time Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT)
- 13. March 11, 2011
- 14. Tsunami Arrival & Inundation • initial drawdown • many waves, including reflections and sloshing Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Pago Pago Harbor Tide Gauge • 3 LARGE waves • wave period about 12 min
- 15. Eyewitness Accounts Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS • Earthquake shaking did not destroy buildings, tsunami did • Tsunami arrived 15-20 min after EQ • Second wave was the largest
- 16. Paul Anderson American Samoa Government Initial Tsunami Damage Maps
- 17. Real-Time Dashboard International Tsunami Survey Team | Data Collection Smart Forms Digital Map Books G • Eyewitness Accounts • Water Levels (beach, inland, runup) • Flow Directions • Inundation Distance • Topographic & Inland By Beach Profiles • Sediment Deposit, Paleo-Tsunami Data • Subsidence • Coastal Change Field Data Collectors, Apps Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS
- 18. Wave Heights, Runups, Inundation Distances Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Broken branches and debris in trees Interface between dead and living vegetation
- 19. Run-up = elevation at time of tsunami Measured Tsunami Run-Up Heights | North, West, and South Coasts Geist, USGS International Tsunami Survey Team
- 20. American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan of 2008 Wright et al., 2001 “Pago Pago Harbor could sustain the worst damage due to amplification of the tsunami by the narrowing of the channel.”
- 21. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | First Major Wave … Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
- 22. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | First Major Wave … Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
- 23. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | That SECOND Wave! Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
- 24. Inundation Distance = distance tsunami travels inland Estimated Run-Up Elevations, Inundation Distances | North and West Coasts Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Asili R=11 I=185m Maloata Bay R=5.5m I=180m Poloa R=11m I=70m Massacre Bay R=8.0m I=165m Fagafue Bay R=7.8m I=250m Tula R=5.5m I=235 Tafeu Cove R=10.5m I=30m Sliding Rock R=9 I=75m Polouta Beach R=9.5m I=35m Agapie Cove R=6m I=25m
- 25. Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Tula Low-lying coastal plain R = 5-7 m I = 230 m
- 26. Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Poloa Steep coast R = 11-12 m I = 70 m Entire village destroyed; no fatalities
- 27. Earthquake Emergency Research Institute
- 28. Ikonos High-Resolution Satellite Imagery | Useful in Assessing Tsunami Inundation June 18, 2009 Pre-tsunami Post-tsunami Sept 29, 2009 Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS
- 29. Ikonos High-Resolution Satellite Imagery | Useful in Assessing Tsunami Inundation June 18, 2009 Pre-tsunami Post-tsunami Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS measured inundation limit Sept 29, 2009
- 30. Factors Influencing Tsunami Inundation Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS • shape of coastline • coastal topography • coastal vegetation • bottom roughness in bays • nearshore bathymetry
- 31. Tutuila Island Topo-Bathy Model | Davey Jones Locker Lab, Oregon State U. Kyle Hogrefe, OSU M.S. Thesis Hogrefe, Wright, & Hochberg, Marine Geodesy, 2008; informed future NOAA NCEI Tsunami Inundation DEM
- 32. Deeper Bathymetric Compilations | Davey Jones Locker Lab, Oregon State U. Now in Esri Ocean Basemap
- 33. Reducing Losses in Future Tsunamis | Local Lessons Learned Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Construct markers showing the inundation area Locate critical structures (hospitals, schools, …) out of inundation zone Plan reconstruction to include routes and paths to easily lead people to safe areas
- 34. Real-Time Dashboard Importance of Field Data Collection & Maintenance Smart Forms Digital Map Books G • Water Levels (beach, inland, runup) • Flow Directions • Inundation Distance • Topographic & Inland By Beach Profiles • Sediment Deposit, Paleo-Tsunami Data • Subsidence • Coastal Change Field Data Collectors, Apps Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS esriurl.com/puertorico
- 35. No Easy Solution to Reducing Risk | Local Lessons Learned Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS; Earthquake Engineering Research Institute The earthquake is the warning … Long-term planning is essential … Public education is key … Individuals must know what to do …
- 36. Community Engagement | Keeping Everyone Informed & Moving Forward • Coastal Mgmt Program • American Samoa (AS) GIS Users Group • National Park of AS • Dept of Marine & Wildlife Resources • Dept of Public Works • AS Power Authority • AS EPA • AS Community College • AS Historic Preservation Office
- 37. Jay Raskin, Ecola Architects and former mayor of Cannon Beach, OR
- 38. Map Product Templates for 1st Responders | What About Villages with NO Street Addresses? Harry Evans, UT; Christine Thies, City of Austin, TX Pre-planning flood maps Operation flood maps Strategic flood maps
- 39. Esri Disaster Response Program | Live Public Maps, Software, Workflows, Data, Tech Support www.esri.com/en-us/disaster-response/overview Humanitarian Response Pakistan United Nations World Food Programme Avalanche Forecasting Jackson Hole Earth Analytic Search and Rescue Dashboard Florida IAFC / NAPSG Evacuation Zones South Carolina Puerto Rico IAFC Damage Modeling Tracking Wildfires California FlameMapper Fire Modeling Fire Management USFS Flood Forecasting Russia Hydrometcentre River Modeling Texas FEMA Damage Assessment Italy Italian Civil Protection Department Sea Level Rise Massachusetts Stantec Preparedness US CUSEC
- 40. ArcGIS Online
- 44. Dawn Wright Email: dwright@esri.com Twitter: @deepseadawn esriurl.com/gilbertwhite esriurl.com/scicomm “Fa’afetai tele lava”
- 45. Extra Slides
- 46. Community Portals Apps Story Maps Identities Performance Dashboards Policy Initiatives Initiative Framework • Government Leaders • Community Leaders • Universities • NGOs • Citizens Stakeholders Enabling Civic Participation Open Data Urban Planning Demographic Reporting Initiatives Performance Reporting Open Data Organizing and Leveraging Stakeholder Interactions Community Portal ArcGIS Hub | Is Transforming Community Engagement and Collaboration
- 47. Tsunami Warning Buoys Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis
- 48. Primary Data Acquisition: Shallow Multibeam sonar, 200 m and shallower Ikonos, shoreline to 15 m Portable pole-mounted EM3000 Ikonos satellite R/V Acoustic Habitat Investigator w/ RESON 8101
- 49. Primary Data Acquisition: Deep Multibeam sonar, regional scale, 200 m and deeper Image from Lost City Expedition (2003)
Hinweis der Redaktion
- US Territories to fully enrich our knowledge of hazard adaptation, and in ways that will improve our policy, practice, and decision-making. The American Samoa earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent flooding of September 2009 is fully described as an example, a cautionary tale, and hopeful fodder for rich discussion. It is based on the speaker’s personal experience in the region, and in the spirit of Gilbert White’s deep commitment to water management in developing regions, in addition to the US. As the world stands on the brink of climate action failure according to the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15), we are ever mindful of how elevated sea surface temperatures continue to fuel larger and more frequent storms and storm surges in the world’s oceans. These part of a wide range of water-borne hazards and disasters that are now fully in the public consciousness. In addition to grabbing headlines, they also capture the attention of policy makers, if only so briefly, and often in a reactionary rather than prescriptive sense. In the United States the focus is naturally upon the 50 states, but rarely are we focused on the U.S Territories, where US citizens and “nationals” are also deeply affected. Aside from Hurricane Maria, which did focus attention on Puerto Rico and tangentially on the US Virgin Islands, this talk argues that we have yet to use past experiences in the US Territories to fully enrich our knowledge of hazard adaptation, and in ways that will improve our policy, practice, and decision-making. The American Samoa earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent flooding of September 2009 is fully described as an example, a cautionary tale, and hopeful fodder for rich discussion. It is based on the speaker’s personal experience in the region, and in the spirit of Gilbert White’s deep commitment to water management in developing regions, in addition to the US. Gilbert White: a geographer known as the father of flood plain management and a leader in natural hazards research “Sought to bring safe water to all people as a human right, studied how to significantly reduce the global tolls of deaths and damages from natural hazards, facilitated peace through joint water development and management” – Joseph Kerski in Interpreting Our World Gilbert White never let go of the need to keep his research grounded in everyday life and community – localized, place-based case study
- Yutu, Mangkut Aside from the original 13 colonies, most states were territories before they became states. I have a special place in my heart for territories as I was raised in Hawaii which transitioned from a territory to a state only 2 years before I was born, (and only 4 years after Gilbert White returned to his alma mater, the University of Chicago, as professor and chair of the Geography Dept!) In the 20th century, Hawaii and Alaska are famous for having made the jump from territory to state (both in 1959), but SO did Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona. Washington DC is NOT a territory but rather a federal district. There are FIVE populated US territories - Puerto Rico (if it were a state it would be 29th largest in population and larger in area than Rhode Island and Delaware) - US Virgin Islands - Guam - Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI), with the largest island known as Saipan In late October Super Typhoon Yutu pulverized CNMI and Guam. With 180-mph-winds, it tied Super Typhoon Mangkut just a month earlier as the strongest storm on Earth THIS YEAR. How many of us heard about this on the news? - American Samoa There are 11 other territories that are uninhabited atolls, reefs, banks, or islands (including Palmyra Atoll, formerly part of Hawaii is owned by The Nature Conservancy) Citizens of the first four territories are US Citizens, however they cannot vote in federal elections. They each have a representative in congress, which cannot vote on the floor but may vote in committee. American Samoans are US nationals rather than US citizens. They may live and work anywhere in the US and may apply for citizenship, but cannot vote should they move to the US. Interestingly American Samoa has the highest rate of military enlistment of any US state OR territory.
- Samoan Islands are almost due south of Hawaii in the realm of the southwest Pacific
- Now in the tradition of Gilbert White’s affinity for local, place-based case studies, which he passed on to generations of his students, I’d like to present a case study of the US territory of American Samoa
- We’ve just had a major 7.0 earthquake in Anchorage, Alaska in the news. The tectonic setting in American Samoa is very similar.
- Smith, W. H. F., and D. T. Sandwell (1997), Global seafloor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings, Science, 277, 1957-1962.
- Closeup of bend in Tonga Trench, one of the most complicated pieces of seafloor in the western Pacific, Machias Seamount to the right. The epicenter of Samoa tsunami quake is in the "Samoa Corner" where the trench is transitioning from subduction to strike-slip motion. The approximate location of the epicenter of the earthquake is in the blue region (~6000 m water depth) in the lower right portion of the visual. Purple and blue is deep, orange/red is shallow. So there is quite a bit of hinge faulting in that complex region where the Pacific Plate may be tearing. A possible bathymetric expression of the plate tearing is evident at 15°-16°S, right near yesterday's epicenter, where the landward trench slope steepens significantly, the forearc narrows, and the trench axis is "pinched" by the presence of Machias seamount. In this region where the Pacific Plate is subducting and the bending hinge is at a high angle to lineations on the Pacific Plate, the apparent throw of these features does not increase towards the trench. This evidence suggests to me that these features are related to abyssal hill topography on the plate. The WNW trend of these lineations is also consistent with recent work suggesting that the seafloor east of the Tonga Trench preserves a fabric formed at a roughly east-west trending spreading center. So, overall, these lineations are interpreted to be older Pacific Plate structures that may have been reactivated by hinge-faulting at the bend in the trench. Kirby, S., Hino, R., Geist, E., Wright, D.J., and Wartman, J., Tectonic settings of great outer-rise/outer-trench-slope (OR/OTS) earthquakes in the instrumental record , Eos, Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract U21D-06, 2009.
- Closeup of bend in Tonga Trench, one of the most complicated pieces of seafloor in the western Pacific, Machias Seamount to the right. The epicenter of Samoa tsunami quake is in the "Samoa Corner" where the trench is transitioning from subduction to strike-slip motion. The approximate location of the epicenter of the earthquake is in the blue region (~6000 m water depth) in the lower right portion of the visual. Purple and blue is deep, orange/red is shallow. So there is quite a bit of hinge faulting in that complex region where the Pacific Plate may be tearing. A possible bathymetric expression of the plate tearing is evident at 15°-16°S, right near yesterday's epicenter, where the landward trench slope steepens significantly, the forearc narrows, and the trench axis is "pinched" by the presence of Machias seamount. In this region where the Pacific Plate is subducting and the bending hinge is at a high angle to lineations on the Pacific Plate, the apparent throw of these features does not increase towards the trench. This evidence suggests to me that these features are related to abyssal hill topography on the plate. The WNW trend of these lineations is also consistent with recent work suggesting that the seafloor east of the Tonga Trench preserves a fabric formed at a roughly east-west trending spreading center. So, overall, these lineations are interpreted to be older Pacific Plate structures that may have been reactivated by hinge-faulting at the bend in the trench. Wright, D.J., Bloomer, S.H., MacLeod, C.J., Taylor, B., and Goodliffe, A.M., Bathymetry of the Tonga Trench and forearc: A map series, Marine Geophysical Researches, 21(5): 489-512, 2000.
- http://bit.ly/akKzYn
- Rainbow colors indicate sea surface heights of main tsunami wave fronts. Contour lines are hours from initial event. Yellow triangles are locations of DART tsunami warning buoys around the “Ring of Fire” in the Pacific. DART = Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis
- Tsunami Energy Maps for Historical Events now on ArcGIS Online https://arcg.is/18Wi04 NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has modeled historical tsunamis using the Real-Time Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT) forecast model (Wang et al., 2012), the same tool that it uses to determine tsunami hazards in real time for any tsunami today. The RIFT model takes earthquake information as input and calculates how the tsunami waves move through the world’s oceans, predicting their wavelength, speed, and amplitude. RIGHT is the great Prince William Sound Earthquake of 1964 (estimated M9.2), where 9 people in CALIFORNIA died from the tsunami; LEFT is the Tohoku-Oki M9.0 quake of 2011 These maps display "energy" for selected historical tsunami events, made available by Nathan Becker (NOAA/PTWC). Each energy map is a mathematical surface representing the maximum rise in sea-level on the open ocean caused by the tsunami, a pattern that indicates that the kinetic energy of the tsunami was not distributed evenly across the oceans but instead forms a highly directional "beam" such that the tsunami was far more severe in the middle of the "beam" of energy than on its sides. This pattern also generally correlates to the coastal impacts, but does not necessarily match the tsunami wave heights measured at the coastline.
- HIDEEN SLIDE Tsunami Energy Maps for Historical Events now on ArcGIS Online https://arcg.is/18Wi04 NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has modeled historical tsunamis using the Real-Time Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT) forecast model (Wang et al., 2012), the same tool that it uses to determine tsunami hazards in real time for any tsunami today. The RIFT model takes earthquake information as input and calculates how the tsunami waves move through the world’s oceans, predicting their speed, wavelength, and amplitude. RIGHT is the great Cascadia Subduction Zone quake of 1700 (estimated M8.7-9.2), LEFT is the Tohoku-Oki M9.0 quake of 2011 These maps display "energy" for selected historical tsunami events, made available by Nathan Becker (NOAA/PTWC). Each energy map is a mathematical surface representing the maximum rise in sea-level on the open ocean caused by the tsunami, a pattern that indicates that the kinetic energy of the tsunami was not distributed evenly across the oceans but instead forms a highly directional "beam" such that the tsunami was far more severe in the middle of the "beam" of energy than on its sides. This pattern also generally correlates to the coastal impacts, but does not necessarily match the tsunami wave heights measured at the coastline.
- A simulation by UH-Manoa of the estimated 1.5 million TONS of debris headed to the US and Canadian west coast from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami. The pictures below show some of the debris already washed ashore. One of the big surprises here has been the sheer number of living sea creatures attached to these debris, some of which are invasive and could devastate local populations. The debris is still a threat to the entire US west coast. The final picture is from as recently as MARCH 2016 on the Oregon Coast, courtesy of Oregon State University, 5 YEARS AFTER the original earthquake and tsunami. An additional tidbit is that a seafloor pressure sensor manufactured in Redmond, WA but installed offshore of Japan broke loose off the Japanese coast after the 2011 quake and tsunami, was carried across the Pacific in a marine debris field and washed ashore in Willapa Bay, WA in 2016 and STILL WORKED!
- Back in 2009 we did not have mobile devices and apps that worked in the field. Now this can be informed by technologies developed expressly for field data collection and field coordination, as well as taking maps as digital map books into the field and being able to work with them. While these are technical things, a big advance is that these may all be connected to GIS on premise or in the cloud so that we can see in real time where everybody is and help them coordinate their work.
- Wright, D.J., B.T. Donahue, and D.F. Naar, Seafloor mapping and GIS coordination at America's remotest national marine sanctuary (American Samoa), in D.J. Wright (Ed.), Undersea with GIS, Redlands, CA, Esri Press, 33-63. http://dusk.geo.orst.edu/djl/samoa/FBNMS_GISreprint.pdf
- Reiterating again the importance of technology for the field Puerto Rico success story, ArcGIS Disconnected Apps Transform Hurricane Response in Puerto Rico https://www.esri.com/about/newsroom/arcnews/arcgis-disconnected-apps-transform-hurricane-response-in-puerto-rico/
- Designs for the future: an example from Cannon Beach, OR
- Can’t deliver a Gilbert White lecture without showing flood maps. What is the best solution when an area, such as American Samoa, or an Indian reservation in the US, has no street addresses?
- President George H.W. Bush spoke of the importance of environmental innovations from industry, and not just in the energy sector. In addition to governments and non-profits, we can certainly turn to the private sector for first response in the face of disasters, even in US territories. IT companies, such as my own, Esri, and Google, have certainly taken this to heart and lent the power of geographical sciences to first response and recovery.
- 4 out of 5 counties have reported some form of water disaster within the last 6 years! Now more than ever, resources such as the NOAA’s National Water Model (http://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm) will be critical for science and decision-making.
- Imagery service with a swipe function. Focus on tennis court
- One of the great products from Esri’s Disaster Response Team is it’s online catalog of resources made available during an event. One of the most extensive for a US territory is one for Hurricane Maria
- ArcGIS Hub has been designed to transform the relationship between communities and the citizens that live there. Dozens of communities are now in the process of implementing Hub sites to engage their constituents and citizens using open data and policy initiatives and community portals and performance dashboards.