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DeMPA and Small States

           A comparative snapshot

                        Edgardo Favaro
Sustaining Development in Small States in a Turbulent Global Economy,
                           July 6-7, 2009
Roadmap
1. General setting
  o   What is DeMPA? Why have a DeMPA?
  o   Fitting DeMPA into the big picture


2. Are small states different?
  o   Stylized facts of small states
  o   DeMPA in small states
  o   A comparative analysis


  5. Concluding remarks
What is DeMPA – An Overview
Analytical tool with following attributes:
What is DeMPA – the PIs
           Governance and Strategy Development
  DPI-1    Legal Framework
  DPI-2    Managerial Structure
  DPI-3    Debt Management Strategy
  DPI-4    Evaluation of Debt Management Operations
  DPI-5    Audit
           Coordination with Macroeconomic Policies
  DPI-6    Coordination with Fiscal Policy
  DPI-7    Coordination with Monetary Policy
           Borrowing and Related Financing Activities
  DPI-8    Domestic Borrowing
  DPI-9    External Borrowing
  DPI-10   Loan Guarantees, On-lending and Derivatives
           Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Balance Management
  DPI-11   Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Balance Management
           Operational Risk Management
  DPI-12   Debt Administration and Data Security
  DPI-13   Segregation of Duties, Staff Capacity and Business Continuity
           Debt Records and Reporting
  DPI-14   Debt Records
  DPI-15   Debt Reporting
What is DeMPA – example of
   dimensions within PI
What is DeMPA – scoring
            method
Scoring method - quantifiable scores (A to D)

i) Meet minimum requirement = Score C
      Important for effective debt management

ii) Absence of minimum requirement = Score D
      Signals an area of priority attention

iii) Sound practice = Score A (B intermediate for
     more granularity)

iv) Not rated – if process/system does not exist (e.g.,
    derivatives)
So what? - motivation for DeMPA

‱ HIPC and MDRI debt relief – opened space
  for new debt

‱ Mounting fiscal deficits

‱ Current volatile and uncertain financial
  environment

  ⇒ institutional framework necessary to
    manage public debt prudently
DeMPA and the big picture
DeMPA: Follow-up actions



      Possible
      follow-ups




Training/TA
examples
Scope and distribution of DeMPA
  assessments as of end-May
Small states – stylized facts
Small states– indebtedness
Small states– indebtedness
What about our DeMPA sample?
Small economies – indebtedness

Corollary:

More urgent need to build debt
 management capacity.

Key question:

How to operationalize given small market
 size and lacking capacity?
DeMPA in small states: basic statistics
DeMPA in small states (sample: 6)
DeMPA outside small states (sample: 21)
Comparing DeMPA outcomes: across
      countries for each PI

    PIs
Comparing DeMPA outcomes: across
         PI for each country
                           PI ratings: >D


                          Small states PI         Outside small
                                                    states PI
Max                            8 (53%)                14 (93%)
Min                            2 (13%)                 1 (7%)
Median                          30%                     40%
Average                         30%                     44%

‱ an average small state has 30% of its PI above the minimum
requirement (4.5 PI out of 15)

‱ an average outside small state has 44% of its PI above the
minimum requirement (6.5 PI out of 15), but larger variability
Concluding remarks

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Debt Problem De Mpa

  • 1. DeMPA and Small States A comparative snapshot Edgardo Favaro Sustaining Development in Small States in a Turbulent Global Economy, July 6-7, 2009
  • 2. Roadmap 1. General setting o What is DeMPA? Why have a DeMPA? o Fitting DeMPA into the big picture 2. Are small states different? o Stylized facts of small states o DeMPA in small states o A comparative analysis 5. Concluding remarks
  • 3. What is DeMPA – An Overview Analytical tool with following attributes:
  • 4. What is DeMPA – the PIs Governance and Strategy Development DPI-1 Legal Framework DPI-2 Managerial Structure DPI-3 Debt Management Strategy DPI-4 Evaluation of Debt Management Operations DPI-5 Audit Coordination with Macroeconomic Policies DPI-6 Coordination with Fiscal Policy DPI-7 Coordination with Monetary Policy Borrowing and Related Financing Activities DPI-8 Domestic Borrowing DPI-9 External Borrowing DPI-10 Loan Guarantees, On-lending and Derivatives Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Balance Management DPI-11 Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Balance Management Operational Risk Management DPI-12 Debt Administration and Data Security DPI-13 Segregation of Duties, Staff Capacity and Business Continuity Debt Records and Reporting DPI-14 Debt Records DPI-15 Debt Reporting
  • 5. What is DeMPA – example of dimensions within PI
  • 6. What is DeMPA – scoring method Scoring method - quantifiable scores (A to D) i) Meet minimum requirement = Score C Important for effective debt management ii) Absence of minimum requirement = Score D Signals an area of priority attention iii) Sound practice = Score A (B intermediate for more granularity) iv) Not rated – if process/system does not exist (e.g., derivatives)
  • 7. So what? - motivation for DeMPA ‱ HIPC and MDRI debt relief – opened space for new debt ‱ Mounting fiscal deficits ‱ Current volatile and uncertain financial environment ⇒ institutional framework necessary to manage public debt prudently
  • 8. DeMPA and the big picture
  • 9. DeMPA: Follow-up actions Possible follow-ups Training/TA examples
  • 10. Scope and distribution of DeMPA assessments as of end-May
  • 11. Small states – stylized facts
  • 14. What about our DeMPA sample?
  • 15. Small economies – indebtedness Corollary: More urgent need to build debt management capacity. Key question: How to operationalize given small market size and lacking capacity?
  • 16. DeMPA in small states: basic statistics
  • 17. DeMPA in small states (sample: 6)
  • 18. DeMPA outside small states (sample: 21)
  • 19. Comparing DeMPA outcomes: across countries for each PI PIs
  • 20. Comparing DeMPA outcomes: across PI for each country PI ratings: >D Small states PI Outside small states PI Max 8 (53%) 14 (93%) Min 2 (13%) 1 (7%) Median 30% 40% Average 30% 44% ‱ an average small state has 30% of its PI above the minimum requirement (4.5 PI out of 15) ‱ an average outside small state has 44% of its PI above the minimum requirement (6.5 PI out of 15), but larger variability