“You are the master of your own destiny. Use your strengths well. They are the keys to your destiny and your success in life. Once you know yourself and take action to realize your dreams, you can unlock the doors to your own potential.” ~Neil Somerville

1. HONOLULU AUTHORITY FOR RAPID TRANSIT (HART)
WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS
When all else fails, tell the truth.
~ Donald T. Regan
When all else fails to organize the people, conditions will.
~ Marcus Garvey
When all else fails, dream bigger.
~ Ellen Hopkins
When all else fails,
Go back to the beginning.
~ Amy Sedgemore
Current funding for the 20-mile line calls for the elevated train to run
from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center. However, a plan approved by
the City Council in 2007 has never been amended and still calls for a
more ambitious project: a line that extends to the University of Hawaii
Manoa, with a separate branch running to the western edge of Waikiki.
That plan is known as the “locally preferred alternative.”
Source: Rail Board OKs Preliminary Step To Push Route Past Ala Moana
By Stuart Yerton. Honolulu Civil Beat. November 17, 2017, accessed November 18,
2017 http://www.civilbeat.org/2017/11/rail-board-oks-preliminary-step-to-push-route-past-ala-moana/
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In december [2007], the honolulu City Council approved the mass-transit plan
that Mayor Muf Hannemann has made a top priority of his administration—a
decision that brings us closer to a rail system than we’ve ever been before. But
it’s too soon for Hannemann to claim victory. There are huge challenges
ahead, and many details that need to be pinned down. And even if we manage
to pull it of, will rail work as advertised? Here’s what you can expect over the
next few years.

2. Most of what we know about the proposed rail line comes from a study
commissioned by the city from rail consultant Parsons Brinckerhof. This
Alternatives Analysis compared four diferent proposals for curbing O‘ahu’s
growing congestion problem and concluded that a fxed-guideway system
provided the best cost/beneft ratio.
Although the vision of rail that captured the public’s imagination was a 28-mile
line running from Kapolei to the University of Hawaii at Manoa, it turns out
that the city can only aford to build a smaller section of that line, 20 miles
long. Adding enough rail to reach UH Manoa and Waikiki would cost another
$1 billion.
Before approving the project, the City Council double checked the fndings of
the analysis by having a transit advisory task force review Parsons
Brinckerhof’s methodologies. The task force found that the numbers were
reasonable, and ended up supporting the report’s overall fndings.
One of the task force members, Panos Prevedouros, took issue with the
analysis’ conclusions, and produced an 11-page report that listed 18 specifc
criticisms. Prevedouros, a professor of trafc and transportation engineering at
UH Manoa, warns that a rail system will never be as efective as managed lanes
in reducing congestion.
Though rail seems like a done deal, both its fans and detractors should know
that there are big hurdles to clear before the train leaves the station. Before we
can build this system, we’ll have to be able to aford it. Hannemann has gotten
farther in this respect than any of his predecessors, by winning the state
Legislature’s approval to add a half-percentage-point surcharge on the state
general excise tax, earmarked specifcally for a fxed-guideway system. Over 16
years of collection, the surcharge is expected to pull in a total of $2.6 billion to
$3.2 billion, depending on which forecasting model you use.
Our fnal concern is probably the most basic one: Does our city government
have the chops to pull of a complex, long-range project like this?

3. Communication and cooperation between city departments are going to be vital
in the next few years, and yet already disagreements are popping up over the
details of the plan.
The City Council, for example, has reserved the right to choose what kind
of vehicle will be running on the fxed guideway. Barbara Marshall, the
Council chair, says: “We wanted to make sure the possibility of a bus or
rubber-tire transportation was left open. If you do it the right way, the bus
can use the elevated system and then go down into the city streets.”
A fxed guideway rail system holds a lot of promise for Honolulu’s trafc
problems, but with so much to accomplish in the next few years, the road to
rail may be bumpy indeed.
[Emphasis Supplied]
Source: Our City On Rails. After Decades of False Starts, Honolulu is closer than it’s
ever been to a Mass-Transit Rail System. So What’s Next? What’s This Thing Going To
Look Like? And Will It Work? By Michael Keany. HONOLULU. March 1, 2007,
accessed November 18, 2017 http://www.honolulumagazine.com/Honolulu-Magazine/March-2007/Our-City-
on-Rails/
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2017
The City and County of Honolulu is in the process of building a $10 billion
elevated rapid-transit line that will cover approximately 20 miles from East
Kapolei to Ala Moana Center. The planned route passes through Ewa,
Waipahu, Pearl City, Aiea, Kalihi, downtown Honolulu and Kakaako.
The city considered four options before settling on a steel-wheel-on-steel-
rail system, which has received city, state and federal support. During the
2008 general election, 50.6 percent of Honolulu voters said yes to the
charter amendment question: “Shall the powers, duties, and functions of
the city, through its director of transportation services, include
establishment of a steel wheel on steel rail transit system?”

4. The rail issue was so divisive during the election that more people voted
against the steel-on-steel technology (140,818) than voted for anti-rail mayoral
candidate, now-Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi. Kobayashi received 128,798
votes.
The Honolulu Rail system will use steel-wheel technology. In February
2008, an independent panel of transportation experts appointed by the
administration and city council recommended steel-on-steel as the best
long-term and most cost-efective solution. The panel cited benefts that
include higher passenger capacity, better ride quality, better energy
efciency and lower noise and air-quality impacts.
Source: Honolulu Rail Project. Honolulu Civil Beat. October 16, 2017, accessed
November 18, 2017 http://www.civilbeat.org/topics/honolulu-rail-project/
COULD RECENT PLUNGE IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION RIDERSHIP
SPELL TROUBLE FOR RAIL?
By Gina Mangieri. KHON2 News. August 23, 2017, accessed November 18, 2018
http://khon2.com/2017/08/23/could-recent-plunge-in-public-transportation-ridership-spell-trouble-for-rail/
Honolulu’s rail transit system is still years away from taking its frst passengers.
But when it does, who will use it, and how many people will give up their cars
and take a ride instead?
While lawmakers focus on covering the cost of building rail, Always
Investigating crunched the numbers to see how many people are using public
transportation in Honolulu and found a big drop in users. That could spell
trouble for covering the cost of running the rail system.
Always Investigating asked, what is eating away at public transit ridership right
now?

5. Roger Morton, CEO of Oahu Transit Services, which runs TheBus
“Uber, Lyft, and the other ride-hailing companies are clearly making an impact.
I’ve seen one city, in Las Vegas, where they’ve estimated perhaps it had a 10-
percent impact on one of their major strip routes in the tourist area. Our gas
prices are very, very low right now.”
So what does this all mean for rail?
HART is counting on a turnaround, and a big increase in public transportation
usage. Rail’s original environmental impact statement said rail would have
about 116,000 riders day, but its most recent projection bumped up to more
than 121,000 riders.
Randall W. Roth, Community Activist, Professor University of Hawaii
William S. Richardson School of Law, 35 years, retired June 1, 2017
“If you look at honest ridership projections, it makes no sense whatsoever.
Even before they made these latest changes, the numbers they’ve been
providing have simply been bogus. When you look at evidence to support it,
it’s simply not there. In fact, the evidence makes clear that their ridership
projections have been grossly in excess of what could be reasonably expected,
based on the experiences of many many cities that have adopted rail systems.
The norm is that you don’t get more riders than you have just with bus. You
actually get less after you’ve added rail. The cost of operating and maintaining
rail is just going to be of the chart compared to the ridership.”
Roth said in most other cities, transit ridership overall actually has gone down
after rail is completed.
But there are a few exceptions, and rail backers are counting on Honolulu
to be one of them. “I still believe in our numbers, and that’s because there is
no rail currently, and I believe once the rail is built, there are more people that
are going to take the transportation like to the airport,” said HART board
chairman Damien Kim.

6. The Hard Reality Of Honolulu Rail Costs
Only a forensic audit can explain
how an all-inclusive $4 billion cost for completing 16 miles and 14 stations
has ballooned to more than $10 billion for 20 miles and 21 stations.
The escalation is clearly out of proportion and
well outside acceptable ranges
for the construction
and
oversight of U.S. guideway systems
Source: Honolulu Civil Beat. Panos Prevedouros. August 25, 2017, accessed November
18, 2017 http://www.civilbeat.org/2017/08/the-hard-reality-of-hart-costs /
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A study last year by City Auditor Edwin Young found that the rail authority's
fnancial plans were unreliable and that its cost projections weren't well
documented.
"We found that the internal controls were so weak that if fraud, waste and abuse
were to occur, HART and many others would not have detected it, could not
prevent it and could not have taken corrective action," said Young.
But that audit only looked at HART's operating expenses. The new audit will
take a much broader look at the rail system's construction contracts and cost
overruns incurred by contractors.
The review will not be a forensic audit. Young said the city charter bars
his agency from conducting such an audit, which looks for fraud and other
criminal acts. He said that type of investigation is usually handled by the
city Prosecutor's ofce and other law enforcement agencies.
[Emphasis Supplied]
Source: City Council pushes new rail audit: 'Where the heck is the money going?'
By Rick Daysog. HawaiiNewsNow. August 16, 2017, accessed November 18, 2017
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/36153935/city-council-pushes-new-rail-audit-where-the-heck-is-the-money-going