presentation on how to feed the 9 billion in 2050 while lifting the pressure on people and the planet.

1. VREDESEILANDEN &
THE FARMER EFFECT
Chris Claes, 21/11/2013
Smallholder farming
and its contribution
to saving the world

2. Overview
• The world situation with regard to agriculture and food
systems
• Investing in smallholder farming: how to intervene in
complex systems
• A contribution from a Belgian development NGO
http://www.fao.org/family-farming-2014/en/

4. By 2050, food production is projected to
increase by about 70 percent globally and
nearly 100 percent in developing countries.
This incremental demand for food, together with
demand from other competing uses, will place
unprecedented pressure on many agricultural
production systems across the world. These
'systems at risk' are facing growing competition
for land and water resources and they are often
constrained by unsustainable agricultural
practices. They therefore require particular
attention and specific remedial action.

5. Why an increase in grains?
Consumption at world level: grow th of 21 million ton per year 1990-2005  45 million ton
per jaar 2005-2011
•
Historically two reasons:
Population growth (increases with 219.000 per day)
Diets change by increasing living standards 
„grain‟-fed intensive meat production (Westen:
after WWII, now 3 billion consumers (China,
already 2 times as much meat as USA)
•
New:
Cars: grains for bio-ethanol because petroleum is
expensive (USA in 2011: 400 million ton grain
production 127 million ton bio-ethanol)

6. USA: 800 kg grain/person/year of
which 100 kg directly, the rest
through conversion to meat
India: 200 kg grain/person/year,
all directly

7. 35 % of 2.3 billion tons of world grain
production is for meat production
• 7 kg grain needed for 1 kg beef (increasingly
in stables without grazing)
• 3,5 kg grain needed for 1 kg pork
• > 2 kg grain needed for 1 kg poultry
• 2 kg grain for 1 kg eggs
• < 2 kg grain needed for1 kg carp (fish)

8. FOOD WASTE
• More or less 1/3rd of the food produced
globally for human consumption gets lost: +/1.3 billion tons per year.
• This equals 6-10 % of greenhouse gasses
generated by mankind.

11. Those who produce our food
now are poor and go hungry

12. Looking at numbers and statistics
• 3.1 billion people, more than 55 % of the developing world,
lives in rural areas
• Between 2020 & 2025 rural population will peak and then
start to decline
• Of rural inhabitants, an estimated 2.5 billion are involved in
agriculture, 1.3 billion are smallholders, while others include
farm laborers, migrant workers, herders, fishers, artisans and
indigenous peoples who depend on agriculture and natural
resources for their livelihoods.
• 1.4 billion people living on less than 1.25 US $ a day (world
poverty benchmark), 70 % of the world’s extreme poor are
rural (1 billion people) and live from agriculture
• 925 million (2010) suffer from chronic hunger, which means
that their daily intake of calories is insufficient for them to live
active and healthy lives (80 % of the hungry live in rural
areas)

13. Smallholder farmers
Almost 90 % of all farms in the
world are less than 2 ha. Big or
small can not be defined by area
only (depends on soil, crop,
climate, vegetation…).

14. Who produces the food?

15. Poverty, hunger and other crises  interlinked,
a system crisis
•
•
•
•
•
Poverty persists
Food crisis and hunger
Financial crisis
Ecological crisis
Climate Change
Newspaper ‘De Morgen’, 3/12/2011, Gaston Meskens, Prof. Nuclear
Physics, University Gent:
 “Climate Conferences of the UN will not save the climate… the world
needs a global protocol for energy, water, food and transport. Climate is
a transversal issue that can be adressed meaningfully within each of
these issues.

16. Food &
the limits of the
planet

18. Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006
Rising to 100% by
2050.
18

19. Sustainability, a playground of four elements
Transport
Travels
Housing
agriculture/food (25%)
80 %
foot print
Transversally: climate, energy, natural resources, poverty, …
70 % of Earth Surface is Farm Land
19

20. Climate Change: Agriculture= problem and solution
1.2
What next? billion people; 1.3 trillion US$ in
farm revenue; 13%-30% GHG
Agriculture= problem and solution
emissions
•
( 1,2 billion people; 1,3 trillion US$ in farm revenu; 18-30% GHG
emissions)
• Vredeseilanden working on solutions on the ground within a broader
framework and vision

24. Water
• Petroleum may be replaced, water not
• An adult drinks 4 liter water per day, 2,000
liter water is used to produce the food we eat
daily
• 70% of water use in the world= irrigation
• Surface irrigated agriculture grows less than
population (10% less irrigated surface per
person than in 1960)
• Water shortages = food shortages

25. FOOD FOR FUEL: land for energy
Biofuel Net Energy Ratio for Selected Crops
Crop
Biofuel Type
Net Energy Return*
Corn
Sugar Beet
Wheat
Sugarcane
Ethanol
Ethanol
Ethanol
Ethanol
1.2 – 1.8
1.2 – 2.2
1.2 – 4.2
2.2 – 8.4
Rapeseed
Soybean
Oil Palm
Biodiesel
Biodiesel
Biodiesel
1.2 – 3.6
1.4 – 3.4
8.6 – 9.6

26. Ethanol & biodiesel : some numbers
• The amount of grain needed to fill up a tank of 25 gallon (=
95 liters) once = the amount of grain needed to feed one
person for a year
• The amount of grain that in one year in the USA is converted
to ethanol (2011) would be able to feed 400.000.000 persons
(on average consumption levels)
• 14 billion gallons production = 6 % of yearly car fuel in the
USA
• USA & Brazil (14 billion and 6 billion ton) = 87 % world
production
• Biodiesel made of oilseeds, production more equally
distributed over different countries

27. Food Systems:
Globalization, markets,
trade agreements, subsidies and
Agriculture

28. Globalisation and shift in power
•
•
•
small-scale family farms,
Little risk for farmers
Governments created semi-public enterprises that ensured minimum
prices, administered inputs and outputs, extended technologies,
extension services, capacity building…
Structural adjustment
programs, liberalisation
of trade, globalisation,
foreign investments…
•
•
•
•
Situation has changed dramatically:
states are absent
Agro-corporation or Food-corporation
= multinational, active in
(bio)technology, chemical inputs
production, processing, banking
activities
Alliances with others= clusters or
oligopoly
From input markets to retail
28

29. The Bottleneck in Europe
Grievink (2003): OECD Conference to Explore Changes in the Food Economy, The Hague, 6-7
February 2003
Consumers: 160,000,000
clients: 89,000,000
stores: 170,000
supermarket formats: 600
buyers: 110
processors: 8,600
Semi-processors: 80,000
suppliers: 160,000
Farmers/producers: 3,200,000
85 % of food sales in Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Great-Britain and Austria

30. Concentration of Food Sales
Land
Austria
Belgium
CR3
57.4
61.8
CR4
66.2
70.4
TopEntreprises
Rewe, SPAR (Austria), Aldi, Metro
Carrefour, Colruyt , Delhaize Group, Metro, Aldi
Czech rep
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
24.8
66.4 – 78
83.6
48.1
44.3
29.7
74.1
87.6
60.0
56.1 - 66.7
Ahold, Schwartz, Metro, Rewe, Tesco
FDB, Dansk Supermarkt, Dagrofa, SuperBest
Kesko, SOK
Carrefour, Leclerc, ITM, Casino, Auchan
Metro, Rewe, Edeka/AVA, Aldi
Hungary
48.2
51
CBA, Tesco, Co-op Hungary, Metro,
Ireland
54.4
70.3
Musgrave,Tesco,Dunnes Stores, Stonehouse,
Italy
Netherlands
29.1
51.5 - 62.6
36.0
56.9 - 82.6
Coop Italia, Auchan, Carrefour, Conad
Ahold, Casino
Norway
62.6 – 83
76.3 - 99.5
Norgesgruppen, Coop Norden, Ahold, Reitan
Poland
Portugal
Romania
14.9
48.3
17.5
17.7
56.8
18.7 - 27.0
Metro, Jerónimo Martins, Tesco, Carrefour
ModeloContinente, Jerónimo Martins, ITM
Metro, Rewe, Carrefour, Delhaize
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
UK
25.3
53.8
80.9 – 95
42.3 – 60.4
31.4
62.5
83.8
49.3 – 70.6
Tesco, Metro, Rewe, Schwartz
El Corte Inglés, Carrefour, Marcadona,
Ahold, Axel Johnson, CoopNorden
Tesco, Asda-Wal-Mart, Sainsbury‟s, Morrisons

31. Evolution food retail (share of total
sales) in Belgium between 20022012
2002
2012
carrefour
25,30 %
22,60 %
delhaize groep
colruyt
21,80 %
16,00 %
22,50 %
27,70 %
louis delhaize
aldi & lidl
9,10 %
10,00 %
4,90 %
15,80 %
8,60 %
9,20 %
4,10 %
2,30 %
makro & metro
anderen
Bronnen
1
Investigation of the determinants of farm-retail price spreads
Final report to DEFRA by London Economics, 2004
http://archive.defra.gov.uk/evidence/economics/foodfarm/reports/pricespreads/wholerep.pdf
2
„De concurrentie neemt sterk toe op de Belgische voedingsdistributiemarkt‟
retaildetail communication platform, 27 juni 2012
http://www.retaildetail.be/nl/case-van-de-week/item/14349-%E2%80%98de-competitie-neemt-sterk-toe-op-de-belgischevoedingsdistributiemarkt%E2%80%99
3
presentatie Bill Vorley over regoverning markets, Boerenbond, 19/04/2006

32. Power in the chain
Consumer price remains
equal or higher
Producer price decreases
Margin processor remains
equal
Supermarket margin doubles

33. GDP and supermarket
concentration
Source: Booz-Allen Hamilton, 2003
Large Supermarket penetration in
Consumer Goods Market
100%
Belgium
UK
90%
USA
Sweden
Germany
80%
Denmark
Switzerland
Norway
Finland
70%
Portugal
Austria
60%
Chile
Spain
Costa Rica
Greece
Argentina
50%
Italy
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
40%
30%
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
GDP/Capita in USD (2001)

34. Globalisation and market restructuring
•
Supermarket power grows:
85 % of food sales in West Europe
Also 60 % in Latin America (20 years!)
30 % in Africa
Increase of supermarket sales: 40 % per
year in China
High quality and food safety standards, also
penetrating in traditional markets

35. International trade
• Trade Barriers reduced in industrial countries since 1995
• Exception: agriculture and labour intensive products
(comparative advantage for developing countries)
• OECD countries: 226 billion Euro support to agriculture; low
international commodity prices (milk, cotton, sugar, meat)
• Import barriers (taxes): protect 28 % of agricultural
production of OECD countries
• Less market opportunities for developing countries (added
value!)
• Commodity suppliers…
• Free trade agreements
New barriers: norms and standards: see supermarket
contentration

36. TECHNOLOGY AND
AGRICULTURE

37. Technological Revolutions
•
Industrial revolution:
Intensification of land use
Leguminosae
Mechanisation
Fertilizers on basis of petroleum
• Green revolution
Wonder seeds (HYV), hybrids, fertilizer and pesticides: unstable plants
Asia & LatinAmerica: increase in productivity high, Africa not
Green revolution did NOT improve access to food for poor people; wonder
seeds are not pro-poor, doesn‟t take into account the complexity of farming
systems
India: poorest 30 % of population (285 million!) no increase in food and nutrient
intake during the last 25 years
Environmental problems: erosion, soil intoxification, increase in pests and
diseases…

38. Technological revolutions
•
Genetic revolution: extreme form of wonder seeds:
Industry driven (stock driven?)
No access for small farmers
•
Economic growth instead of increase in productivity/production:
commercial agriculture, export agriculture, foreign exchange, trade
balance…

39. Agro-biodiversity
• Simplification: 12 types of grain crops, 23 of vegetables, 35
fruits and nuts
• 70 types on 1.5 billion ha of crop land (100 years ago: 2000
types)
• Rain forest: more than 100 types of trees on 1 ha
• Scientists:
“no more research on traditional varieties”
•
USA: > 80 % of varieties that can be bought (corn, soja) are gmoseeds:
“in a few years there will be only gmo-seeds
left”

40. Food Production & Population Growth
• Between 1975 & 2005, more than 175 % increase in
food production, bigger increase than population
increase, 16 % more food per person
• Hunger and food security have grown worse
• 78 % of countries with undernourishment problems of
children, are net food exporters!
 Food is NO production or technological problem: it’s a
problem of ‘having access to food (income, land,
knowledge…)
40

41. FOOD FOR 9
BILLION BY 2050

42. You will have to invest
in smallholder farming
if you want to:
- feed the world
- reduce rural poverty
- reduce the pressure on the
earth

43. Smallholder farming as solution
‘You don’t have another choice than promote smallscale agriculture. Those small farmers don’t have
another option, there are no jobs in industry or
services for them. In the short term you can only
strive for more means for small farmers, if not, you
will create a massive emigraton from rural areas.‘
‘There’s more, small-scale agriculture has 3 big
advantages. Firstly there’s more respect for the
environment, just because there’s no money for
pesticides and chemical fertilizers. That kind of
agriculture is more in harmony with the environment
and the climate. Secondly, it is a labour-intensive
production, creating a lot of jobs. And thirdly, it can
be a very productive agriculture, on the condition
that those farmers have access to the know-how,
resources and the institutional environment tat is
needed.
Prof. Oliver De Schutter, VN-rapporteur for the right to food

44. From neglect to renewed interest for agriculture
•
•
•
•
World Bank Development Report 2007: agriculture in the spotlight
Food Crisis 2007-2008
Studies show that a 1 per cent growth in GDP originating in
agriculture increases the expenditures of the poorest 30 per cent of
the population at least 2.5 times as much as growth originating in the
rest of the economy. Another study shows that agricultural growth is
up to 3.2 times better at reducing US$1/day poverty than growth in
non-agriculture.
IFAD 2010: “the key policy priorities to halve rural poverty by 2030
are: developing more sustainable forms of agriculture; greatly
enhancing education and skills; rural wage labour marktets
tightening; and acces to land.

45. Composition of total expenditures (%)

46. Agricultural aid as a percentage of total aid, 2002–2006
Some promises
•
•
Belgian Federal
Governement
Agreement: focus on
agriculture, especially
family farming and
transformation of
products. DGD: 10%
15 % to agriculture
Declaration of Maputo:
10 % budget spending
on Agriculture: +/- 20
% of African countries
have reached this %

47. How to get there?
• Investing in smallholder family farming!
• Building up evidence that family farming can indeed
contribute to the elimination of rural poverty, feeding a
growing world population and reducing pressure on the
earth
• Use the evidence to serve as a leverage for structural
change
• Network and cooperate; involve all kind of actors,
public, private, civil society, consumers…

48. Systems thinking
•
•
•
Sustainability is
closely linked to
systems thinking
Economic AND
socio-cultural AND
ecological
sustainability (not
OR)
Changes in one
parameter, will
induce changes in
most of the other
parameters

49. Sustainability at which level: agriculture versus
food chain?
• What is produced and how it is produced more and
more defined by demand (see market restructuring,
food safety concerns, sustainability claims)
• E.g. Consumers have a principal role in the definition of
food production
• Many actors involved; farmers on their own will not be
able to solve their situation…
• Complexity… Interactions between different
stakeholders with different perspectives/needs/visions…

50. • No straight forward
planning
• Cause-effect?
• Emerging solutions
• Multi-actor
Titel
•
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51. Need for a new regime, a new paradigm to over
come business as usual
•
Agro-ecology Regime
System thinking
Complexity leads
Building resilience
Capacity to adapt & innovate
Technology and interaction driven
•
Biotechnology Regime
Reductionist science
Cause – effect
Problemsolving (respond to problems)
Creates dependence on technology
Technology driven
“You cannot solve a problem using the same way of
thinking as when the problem was created”
A. Einstein

52. A contribution of a
Belgian Development
NGO

53. Viable livelihoods for
smallholder farmers
via income from
sustainable agriculture

54. Vredeseilanden
-
Senegal, Benin, Togo, Niger, Gambia, Burkina Faso, Mali
Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, DR Congo
Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru
Indonesia, Vietnam
Belgium
170 partners
150 personnel (40 in Belgium, rest in 7 regional offices)
+/- 13 million euro turnover yearly
Funding: public (>65%) and private
54

55. Scenarios
Markets dominant
Value shift marginal
Scenario
A
Scenario
B
Energy cheap
Energy
expensive
Scenario C
Valueshift in markets
Ecological and social concerns
give direction
55

56. How to make a transition towards to a world
where market logic that incorporates social and
environmental concerns, is leading?
-governments: laws, incentives?
-private sector: CSR in the heart of the business model?
-consumers: consuming sustainable produce?
-performant farmer organisations that produce
quality, quantity, sustainably, lobby, negociate…?

57. In other words:
• With multiple chain actors, analyze, design and
implement at experimental level, green chains, inclusive
for family farming
• Build the evidence to advocate with these and other
actors for structural changes so that smallholder family
farming can take up its role to:
Feed the world
Reduce rural poverty
Reduce the pressure on the earth

58. Sustainable business models
Lacks critical buyer relationships
that ensure market demand
Does not empower
Business driven
Supply side model
Sustainable
model
model
Donor driven
model
Small producers to
succeed over long
term
Lacks market insight and raises
Empowerment and sustainability
problems

60. Realisation of economic objective through
multi-stakeholder dialogue processes
Market complexity
Different actors
farmer organisation
private company
public authorities
research institute
NGO
Multi-stakeholder dialogue
Experiments
Innovation

61. Realisation of political objective via ‘political’
alliances
Multi-stakeholder dialogues
Experiments
Innovation
Evidence
‘Political’ alliance
Advocacy (decisionmakers private- and public sector)
61

62. Competitive Rice Chains in West-Africa
• To compete with imported rice in function of food sovereignty
1. Set up multistakeholder programs that try to design and
implement these chains: economic rice farmer organisations,
local governments, business service providers, traders,
consumer organisations…
2. Support national farmer platforms to advocate to national
governments for a supporting environment , and WestAfrican platforms to advocate at the regional level (e.g. for
harmonized import taxes) based upon the evidence from the
experiments to create competitive rice chains

63. Examples at:
www.veco-ngo.org