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www.ciltinternational.org1 International Convention | Manchester | UK
Globalisation Stalled?
Exploring the shifting landsc...
© www.markmillar.com2
Mark Millar MBA, FCILT, SCOR-P, FHKLA, FCIM, GAICD
Speaker, Moderator, Advisor, Author
Mark Millar l...
© www.markmillar.com3
Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting
landscapes of 21st century supply chains
1. Globalisat...
© www.markmillar.com6
1. Globalisation Stalled?
1. Globalisation Stalled
© www.markmillar.com7Source: ICC
Globalisation Generation – 3 Key Drivers…
3 decades of Globalisation resulted in todays G...
© www.markmillar.com9
Trade becoming concentrated within Regions
- Proximity to Customers, Speed to Market
Source: McKinse...
© www.markmillar.com10Source: IMF 2019
% of
Global
GDP
Developing & Emerging
Advanced Economies
Globalisation impact:
- re...
© www.markmillar.com11
Populism
Developed Markets Fractured
”Economic Prosperity and Social Cohesion are Not one-and-the-s...
© www.markmillar.com12
Emerging Markets Developing…
Source: Focus Economics, IMF 0419
Emerging Markets’ Trade:
46% is with...
© www.markmillar.com14Source: BBVA Research, IMF
Asia-Centred World
Economic Centre of Gravity continues to shift East
Reg...
© www.markmillar.com15
The Asian Century:
One Region, Multiple Markets, 3 Mega Markets
India
ASEAN
China
3 mega markets co...
© www.markmillar.com16
Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting
landscapes of 21st century supply chains
1. Globalisa...
© www.markmillar.com17
Shifting Landscapes
Uncertainty & Fear!
Global economic
ramifications of a
prolonged trade
war betw...
© www.markmillar.com20
Export Manufacturers
200 companies surveyed
37% had transferred production in past year
33% plan to...
© www.markmillar.com21
US Import Substitutions
– alternative sources to China
© www.markmillar.com22
Shifting Landscapes
Brands Relocating Production
© www.markmillar.com24
US Companies in China…
- Survey of 250 companies, May 2019
✓ 35% adopting “In China, for China” Str...
© www.markmillar.com25
China Implications
1. China plus One
2. In China, for China
3. Domestic Market
4. No Mass Exodus
5....
© www.markmillar.com26
Cherries
- China imposed Tariff on Cherry Imports
• US largest Origin
• China largest Destination
•...
© www.markmillar.com27
Trade War Winner: Vietnam
• Q1 Exports to USA + 40% YoY
• 2019 forecast 6.7% GDP Growth
• FDI 2019 ...
© www.markmillar.com28
Trade War Winner: India
• Large Pool of Engineers
• Young Labour Force
• Low Wages v China, SEA
• G...
© www.markmillar.com30
Washing Machine Story 2013-2018
US Washing Machine Imports
2013 US tariffs on imports from Korea
Ko...
© www.markmillar.com31
What or Who is Next?
Source: SCMP
Withdraw GSP Benefits
Lose $190m Tariff Savings
© www.markmillar.com32
What or Who is Next?
Source:
© www.markmillar.com34
Polarized World Bromance
De-Coupling
Shifting Landscapes
4
2
Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems...
© www.markmillar.com35
Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting
landscapes of 21st century supply chains
1. Globalisa...
© www.markmillar.com36
3. Logistics Implications
Regional Supply Chains
1
Ground Networks
2
City Logistics
3
© www.markmillar.com38
Regional Trade drives Regional Supply Chains
© www.markmillar.com39
Regional Supply Chains – Business Benefits
Proximity of Production to Consumption
✓ Shorter Distanc...
© www.markmillar.com40
Multimodal Connectivity
Modal Shifts
More Moves
Regional Supply Chains - Freight Impact…
3
Source: ...
© www.markmillar.com42
3. Logistics Implications
Regional Supply Chains
1
Ground Networks
2
City Logistics
3
© www.markmillar.com43
Ground Networks – proven benefits, when…
1. Large Contiguous Land
Mass
2. Advanced Road & Rail
Infr...
© www.markmillar.com44
Key Criteria:
1. Large Contiguous
Land Mass
2. Advanced Road &
Rail Infrastructure
3. Low-Friction ...
© www.markmillar.com45
Ground Networks – Emerging Markets
- NOT so efficient Road & Rail Freight Transport
Source: Global ...
© www.markmillar.com46
Multiple Border Crossings
Eurasia Road & Rail Network
© www.markmillar.com47
3. Logistics Implications
Regional Supply Chains
1
Ground Networks
2
City Logistics
3
© www.markmillar.com48
City Clusters drive need for City Logistics…
Scale & Density together with Technology & Sustainabil...
© www.markmillar.com51
Smart City + City Logistics? = Smart Logistics!
- leverage Sensors, IoT, Cloud Connectivity
- optim...
© www.markmillar.com53
Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting
landscapes of 21st century supply chains
1. Globalisa...
© www.markmillar.com55
Uncertain
Connected
Digital
Tomorrows World – even more…
3 4
2
Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosyste...
© www.markmillar.com56
With Uncertainty
comes Opportunity
He or she that SEES opportunities,
- is best positioned to SEIZE...
© www.markmillar.com57
It’s not about Predicting,
- it’s about Preparedness
Source: Mark Millar whitepapers
© www.markmillar.com58
Are YOU Prepared??
• Embrace Uncertainty?
• Seize Opportunities?
• Harness Power of Digital?
• Tomo...
© www.markmillar.com59
Global Supply Chain Ecosystems - strategies for
competitive advantage in a complex, connected world...
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Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains

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Mark Miller presents at CILT International Convention 2019 in Manchester

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Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains

  1. 1. www.ciltinternational.org1 International Convention | Manchester | UK Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains Mark Millar, FCILT Author Global Supply Chain Ecosystems
  2. 2. © www.markmillar.com2 Mark Millar MBA, FCILT, SCOR-P, FHKLA, FCIM, GAICD Speaker, Moderator, Advisor, Author Mark Millar leverages over 30 years global business experience to provide value for clients with informed and independent perspectives on their supply chain strategies in Asia. Acknowledged as an engaging presenter who delivers a memorable impact, Mark has completed more than 450 speaking engagements at corporate events, client functions and industry conferences across 28 countries. A Visiting Lecturer at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Mark is recognised as one of ‘Asia’s Top 50 Influencers in Supply Chain and Logistics’; in the USA listing of 'Top Pros-to-Know in Supply Chain‘ and 'China Supply Chain Top 20' . Mark’s book “Global Supply Chain Ecosystems strategies for competitive advantage in a complex, connected world” was commissioned by leading business publisher Kogan Page of London. www.markmillar.com
  3. 3. © www.markmillar.com3 Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains 1. Globalisation Stalled 2. Shifting Landscapes 3. Logistics Implications
  4. 4. © www.markmillar.com6 1. Globalisation Stalled? 1. Globalisation Stalled
  5. 5. © www.markmillar.com7Source: ICC Globalisation Generation – 3 Key Drivers… 3 decades of Globalisation resulted in todays Global Supply Chains • Outsourcing: Who • Off Shoring: Where • Un-Bundling: How • Cross-border movement of goods ~40% of global GDP • One-third of all Goods Produced are traded Cross-border
  6. 6. © www.markmillar.com9 Trade becoming concentrated within Regions - Proximity to Customers, Speed to Market Source: McKinsey: Globalisation in Transition 2019 Intra-regional trend is most pronounced within EU-28 and Asia Pacific regions Share of Intra-Regional goods trade by region Percent of trade (imports and exports)
  7. 7. © www.markmillar.com10Source: IMF 2019 % of Global GDP Developing & Emerging Advanced Economies Globalisation impact: - reduces Advanced Economies share of Global GDP - benefits Developing Markets..
  8. 8. © www.markmillar.com11 Populism Developed Markets Fractured ”Economic Prosperity and Social Cohesion are Not one-and-the-same” Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems, WEF Davos Protectionism Left BehindAnti-Establishment
  9. 9. © www.markmillar.com12 Emerging Markets Developing… Source: Focus Economics, IMF 0419 Emerging Markets’ Trade: 46% is with other Emerging Markets Developed Market Exports: 30% go to Emerging Markets 2019 GDP Growth Global 3.3% • Developed 1.8% • Emerging 4.4%
  10. 10. © www.markmillar.com14Source: BBVA Research, IMF Asia-Centred World Economic Centre of Gravity continues to shift East Regional Contribution to World GDP Growth, 2015-2025 Global Growth concentrated in Asia = 61% of GDP Growth 2015 through 2025 Asia: Full Spectrum of Economies, Internal Tensions, Economic Dependencies
  11. 11. © www.markmillar.com15 The Asian Century: One Region, Multiple Markets, 3 Mega Markets India ASEAN China 3 mega markets comprise ~ 3,000,000,000 people… Year 2030 China + India = 35% of global population
  12. 12. © www.markmillar.com16 Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains 1. Globalisation Stalled 2. Shifting Landscapes 3. Logistics Implications
  13. 13. © www.markmillar.com17 Shifting Landscapes Uncertainty & Fear! Global economic ramifications of a prolonged trade war between the two economic superpowers…
  14. 14. © www.markmillar.com20 Export Manufacturers 200 companies surveyed 37% had transferred production in past year 33% plan to do so in next 6-12 months Trade War Impact US Retail Tariffs reduce 2019 Retail Sales by US$40bn Lead to the closure of 12,000 stores in USA - 7,150 US Retail Store closures already announced - Last year, >5,500 US stores closed Source: UBS 0519; Survey 1118
  15. 15. © www.markmillar.com21 US Import Substitutions – alternative sources to China
  16. 16. © www.markmillar.com22 Shifting Landscapes Brands Relocating Production
  17. 17. © www.markmillar.com24 US Companies in China… - Survey of 250 companies, May 2019 ✓ 35% adopting “In China, for China” Strategy ✓ 33% delaying / cancelling Investment Decisions ✓ 20% experience Increased Customs Inspections ✓ 19% experience Slower Customs Clearance ✓ 40% considering / have Relocated Manufacturing - to South East Asia 24%; Mexico 10%; USA <6% Source: AmCham’s in China, 0519
  18. 18. © www.markmillar.com25 China Implications 1. China plus One 2. In China, for China 3. Domestic Market 4. No Mass Exodus 5. Labour intensive, less sophisticated FOR CHINA China plus One
  19. 19. © www.markmillar.com26 Cherries - China imposed Tariff on Cherry Imports • US largest Origin • China largest Destination • 65% China’s imports come from USA • China’s Cherry Tariffs impact 18,000 tonnes of air cargo pa Source: Seabury ? US Export alternatives? - to Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong ? CN Import alternatives? - from Chile, Australia, New Zealand
  20. 20. © www.markmillar.com27 Trade War Winner: Vietnam • Q1 Exports to USA + 40% YoY • 2019 forecast 6.7% GDP Growth • FDI 2019 through May +69% YoY • Automated Customs Management 2019 • Textile sector exports f/c 15% growth in 2019 • FTA – CPTPP, EU-VN, within ASEAN • High wage growth driving Private Consumption • 98m px, SEA’s fastest growing middle class BUT • Labour Productivity - esp in Apparel, Leather, Footwear • Infrastructure, Capacity, Inflation
  21. 21. © www.markmillar.com28 Trade War Winner: India • Large Pool of Engineers • Young Labour Force • Low Wages v China, SEA • Gov Policies • Tax Reforms, IPR, • Made in India • FTA’s including ASEAN • Domestic Consumption BUT: • Complex Regulations • Infrastructure • Red Tape
  22. 22. © www.markmillar.com30 Washing Machine Story 2013-2018 US Washing Machine Imports 2013 US tariffs on imports from Korea Korean brands moved production to China 2016 US tariffs on imports from China Korean brands moved production to SE Asia 2018 US tariffs on ALL imports US Consumers pay more Korean brands announce set up factories in USA Source: Seabury
  23. 23. © www.markmillar.com31 What or Who is Next? Source: SCMP Withdraw GSP Benefits Lose $190m Tariff Savings
  24. 24. © www.markmillar.com32 What or Who is Next? Source:
  25. 25. © www.markmillar.com34 Polarized World Bromance De-Coupling Shifting Landscapes 4 2 Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems 1 Stalled 3
  26. 26. © www.markmillar.com35 Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains 1. Globalisation Stalled 2. Shifting Landscapes 3. Logistics Implications
  27. 27. © www.markmillar.com36 3. Logistics Implications Regional Supply Chains 1 Ground Networks 2 City Logistics 3
  28. 28. © www.markmillar.com38 Regional Trade drives Regional Supply Chains
  29. 29. © www.markmillar.com39 Regional Supply Chains – Business Benefits Proximity of Production to Consumption ✓ Shorter Distance ✓ Lower Cost ✓ Easier to Manage ✓ Closer to Market ✓ More Responsive ✓ Less Risk
  30. 30. © www.markmillar.com40 Multimodal Connectivity Modal Shifts More Moves Regional Supply Chains - Freight Impact… 3 Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems 4 2 Less Miles 1
  31. 31. © www.markmillar.com42 3. Logistics Implications Regional Supply Chains 1 Ground Networks 2 City Logistics 3
  32. 32. © www.markmillar.com43 Ground Networks – proven benefits, when… 1. Large Contiguous Land Mass 2. Advanced Road & Rail Infrastructure 3. Low-Friction Internal Borders
  33. 33. © www.markmillar.com44 Key Criteria: 1. Large Contiguous Land Mass 2. Advanced Road & Rail Infrastructure 3. Low-Friction Internal Borders Ground Networks – Developed Markets - efficient Road & Rail Freight Transport solutions Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems
  34. 34. © www.markmillar.com45 Ground Networks – Emerging Markets - NOT so efficient Road & Rail Freight Transport Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems Asia Region Infrastructure Investment USD 880bn pa Domestic Network, w internal borders Domestic Network, w internal borders Shanghai to Singapore Multiple Border Crossings
  35. 35. © www.markmillar.com46 Multiple Border Crossings Eurasia Road & Rail Network
  36. 36. © www.markmillar.com47 3. Logistics Implications Regional Supply Chains 1 Ground Networks 2 City Logistics 3
  37. 37. © www.markmillar.com48 City Clusters drive need for City Logistics… Scale & Density together with Technology & Sustainability - will drive new City-Centric business models for downtown distribution 2. Leading Economies pursuing Smart Cities 1. Populations Concentrating in Mega Cities
  38. 38. © www.markmillar.com51 Smart City + City Logistics? = Smart Logistics! - leverage Sensors, IoT, Cloud Connectivity - optimise both Distribution and Liveability Source: Mark Millar whitepapers
  39. 39. © www.markmillar.com53 Globalisation Stalled? Exploring the shifting landscapes of 21st century supply chains 1. Globalisation Stalled 2. Shifting Landscapes 3. Logistics Implications
  40. 40. © www.markmillar.com55 Uncertain Connected Digital Tomorrows World – even more… 3 4 2 Source: Global Supply Chain Ecosystems Complex 1
  41. 41. © www.markmillar.com56 With Uncertainty comes Opportunity He or she that SEES opportunities, - is best positioned to SEIZE opportunities Source: Mark Millar whitepapers
  42. 42. © www.markmillar.com57 It’s not about Predicting, - it’s about Preparedness Source: Mark Millar whitepapers
  43. 43. © www.markmillar.com58 Are YOU Prepared?? • Embrace Uncertainty? • Seize Opportunities? • Harness Power of Digital? • Tomorrow's World?
  44. 44. © www.markmillar.com59 Global Supply Chain Ecosystems - strategies for competitive advantage in a complex, connected world - by Mark Millar ✓ Commissioned by leading business publisher Kogan Page of London ✓ View Endorsements & Reviews from Industry Leaders ✓ Order online from the Mark Millar Digital Library

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