8. Objectives Perceptions “Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season” Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010
9.
10. Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)
11. Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)
15. Methodology Overall Approach Output Process Inputs Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information Future Climates at Local scale Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling Yield and Quality Impacts Production and Quality Data EXPOSURE Vulnerability Analyses Socio Economic Information ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Alternative Livelihood Strategies SENSITIVITY
19. Soil typesCalibrated Temperature and Precipitación Ranges! WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.org More than 47,000 stations worldwide Temperature
38. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ExtractedClimateData for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”
50. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
53. Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Different Livelihood profiles Selling to consumers (MC) Selling to both Selling to intermediary
54. Strategies Characterized from supply chain actors 3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups: Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes) Political incidence (local a global) Sustainable/ecological production
56. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 1.7 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.5°C By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”
62. Strategies Characterized from supply chain actors 3 most important mentioned by different groups: Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation
81. Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.
82. Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance. Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles. Impediments to change: Uncertainty Cognitive problems and differing perceptions Lack of motive or incentives Lack of capacity Example: Suggestions:Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…
87. What’s next? Grounding climate change By 2030, site will have current conditions of site Site learn from site for 2030 Site learn from site for 2030 Site learn …