‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.

1. Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012
Scenarios for Policy: Transforming
Food Systems, Landscapes and
Farming for the 21st Century
Thomas Rosswall
Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel

2. Contribution of agriculture to
crossing planetary boundaries
Based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)

3. Climate change much faster & more
severe than previously anticipated
Length of growing
period (%)
>20% loss
5-20% loss
To 2090, ensemble No change
5-20% gain
mean of 14 climate >20% gain
models
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

4. Still much uncertainty about climate
futures e.g. among different models
Change in average
annual precipitation,
2000-2050, CSIRO
GCM, A1B (mm)
Change in average
annual precipitation,
2000-2050, MIROC
GCM, A1B (mm)

5. Many interlinked
Many interlinked drivers and risks
drivers and risks
WEF (2011)

6. Transformational adaptation in
agriculture

7. Transformation in agriculture
The change
should be
responsive and
anticipatory
with a high
level of
adaptive
capacity.
Farmers strongly
attached to their land
Rickards & Howden, 2012)

8. Transformation in institutions
that support agriculture
finance
policy
incentives

9. Prepare ahead for long-term,
locally-relevant futures
... with current knowledge about
climate and plant physiology. It
takes 20 yrs for common uptake in
farmers’ fields. Plan now for 2030.
Session 3 will report on
interventions appropriate for the
21st century CSA in drylands.

10. Prefer multiple entry points over
single interventions Session 3 will look at future
potentials for C markets to
address CSA
Farmer map of farming system, Bangladesh
Source: FAO

11. Tackle poverty as the key
barrier to transformation
Session 3 will
give examples of
successful
interventions in
vulnerable
areas; building
assets,
strengthening
livelihoods and
transforming
landscapes.

12. Take action across the
whole food system
Session 3 will address
some options.
From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012

13. New partnerships are essential
In the past ...
• Governments
Scientists
• Farmers
Increasingly and in the future ...
• Farmers
• Private sector
Scientists
• Civil society
• Governments
... with participatory agenda setting

14. stay in touch
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