Read related blog post: Industrious ants, or lone leopards? http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/industrious-ants-or-lone-leopards CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional capacity for governance: improving food security, environments and livelihoods across sectors under uncertainty.

1. GCARD 2, Punta Del Este, 29/10 to 1/11
Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy
Katindi Sivi Njonjo, program director Kenya,
Society for International Development

2. 2 • 3/21/11
Regional scenarios in EA:
CCAFS, SID, PANOS
• CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-
economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional
capacity for governance: improving food security,
environments and livelihoods across sectors under
uncertainty
• Society for International Development
• Panos
• CCAFS, SID, PANOS have facilitated the development
and use of regional scenarios with regional stakeholders
across sectors in East Africa

3. 3 • 3/21/11
Regional scenarios in EA:
CCAFS, SID, PANOS
• Socio-economic scenarios explore future uncertainties
for the region in terms of their effects on food security,
environments and livelihoods
• Stakeholder-driven scenarios combined with modelling;
complementary to climate scenarios
• SID: inter-sectoral engagement partner and facilitators
with long regional scenarios experience; civil society
perspective
• PANOS: documenting and disseminating the process;
providing media perspective

4. 4 • 3/21/11
Industrious ants Regional integration Herd of Zebra
Proactive Reactive
governance governance
Lone Leopards Fragmented status quo Sleeping Lions

5. 5 • 3/21/11
Regional scenarios in EA:
CCAFS, SID, PANOS
•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and
some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior
policy advisors
•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth
perspective – potential to influence policy

6. Planning with scenarios
6 • 3/21/11
Scenarios as diverse future contexts
Decision
makers in
the present
Shared
future goals
What challenges and opportunities do we face in
each scenario context as we try to get from our
desired futures to the present?

7. 7 • 3/21/11
Regional scenarios in EA:
CCAFS, SID, PANOS
•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and
some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior
policy advisors
•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth
perspective – potential to influence policy

8. Results so far
8 • 3/21/11
• Participants report strong
learning through scenarios and
back-casting
• Resulting plans tackle CSO and
FO voices in regional
governance
• Plans are specifically focused on
building regional capacity
• EAC officer to budget meeting:
non-state actor partnerships are
essential

9. Challenges
9 • 3/21/11
• Plans have yet to become reality
• The most senior policy makers
have yet to be involved –
workshop format might not be
most appropriate
• We have yet to track impact of
people taking the work back to
their ministries
• Competing interests in ministries;
political reality competing with
practicality of solutions
• High-level private sector actors
have yet to be engaged

10. Way forward and role of
10 • 3/21/11
SID and PANOS
• SID: continual stakeholder
engagement
• Organizing meetings and contact
between smaller groups of state
and non-state partners
specifically related to workshop
plans
• Engaging wider stakeholders:
policy makers, private sector
• PANOS: dissemination, visibility,
engagement on a broader scale
through radio, video,
newspapers, social media

11. Thank you
11 • 3/21/11
KATINDI EMAIL INSERT
CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http
://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Jo

12. Features of the process
12 • 3/21/11
• Duration: about 2.5 years, shorter
in new regions
• By CCAFS/University of Oxford
and local partners Society for
International Development and
PANOS
• Involved around 100 stakeholders
from all sectors at a regional level,
including EAC
• Cost: around 600K USD in EA
• Funded by CCAFS, new model
involves other sponsors

13. 13
Beef production: historic and
• 3/21/11
scenarios in 1000 Mtons

14. 14 • 3/21/11
Equitable partnerships
• Non-state actors workshop:
predominantly civil society
including East African Farmers
Federation and others
• Plans for engagement with state
actors under different scenarios
were developed and partnerships
proposed
• Later, in policy workshop with the
EAC, the role of farmers
federations and specifically the
EAFF came up as a key role to
support by governments

15. Call to action
15 • 3/21/11
• Shifting the global role of researchers in multi-
stakeholder foresight spaces
• Inclusive and equitable regional capacity for strategy
development needs to be supported on a continual
basis to develop partnerships and get to action
• Supporting experienced local (e.g. regional) CSOs
with a relatively neutral position, experience in the
methodology and a good network to be the focal
point for partnerships

16. Thank you
16 • 3/21/11
Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk
CGARD brief: No foresight, no food?
http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight
%20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf
Chaudhury M, Vervoort J, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A (2012)
Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food
security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental
Change:1-10