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Putting the world back on the 2-degree path: four actions for mitigation

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Presentation by Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS Low Emission Development Flagship Leader.

Event: Building a Resilient Future: Transforming food systems under a changing climate, at the Climate Week NYC

Date: 22 September 2019

Read more about the event: https://ccafs.cgiar.org/ccafs-un-climate-week-nyc-building-resilient-future-transforming-food-systems-under-changing-climate

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Putting the world back on the 2-degree path: four actions for mitigation

  1. 1. Putting the world on the 2-degree path: Four actions for mitigation Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS Low Emission Development Flagship Sunday, 22 Sept 2019 Building a Resilient Future, UN Climate Summit 22 Sep 2019
  2. 2. Mitigation in food systems 1. Significant • 19-29% of global emissions from food system (80-86% from agricultural production) • On average, 30% of countries’ total emissions are from agriculture 2. Necessary Reductions in other sectors will not be enough to achieve 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets 3. Possible Many practices are compatible with SDGs, hence the possibility of “low emissions development”
  3. 3. A target to stabilize the climate
  4. 4. Action #1: Zero agricultural land expansion on high carbon landscapes THE CHALLENGE: Zero agricultural land expansion in supply chains through 2050 to maintain existing high biomass landscapes • In 2050, land use change due to agriculture will generate 6 GtCO2/yr • Only a few commodities responsible for most deforestation: palm oil, beef, soy, pulp, rubber, cocoa and coffee • 80% of global forest loss is expected to take place in 11 deforestation fronts (2030 projection). S America is a hot spot. The 11 deforestation fronts, with projected losses, 2010– 2030. Source: WWF Living Forests Report (2015). WHERE is action needed ?
  5. 5. Action #2: Maintaining soil health in croplands for regenerative agriculture • Peatlands hold 32% - 46% of all soil carbon (~500– 700 Gt) • Agriculture is a major driver of soil carbon loss, yet cropland soils worldwide could store an additional 0.9 to 1.95 Gt C per year . THE CHALLENGE: Avoid soil C loss on 250 million hectares of croplands by 2030, by protecting high soil C landscapes and storing C where possible, without increasing net emissions WHERE is action needed? Figure 6. Global soil organic carbon map (SOC t/ha in top 30 cm). Source: FAO 2019. Figure 7. Countries setting Land Degradation Neutrality targets. Source: UNCCD.
  6. 6. Action #7: Reducing beef and dairy consumption for healthy and sustainable climate-friendly diets • Consumption of beef & dairy is the largest single driver of agricultural GHGs globally. • Beef production contributes 2.9 GtCO2e/yr and dairy 1.4 GtCO2e/yr. THE CHALLENGE: Incentivize dramatic reductions in beef and dairy consumption in 15 high- and middle-income countries and all C40 cities by 2030 WHERE is action needed? Figure 8. Meat supply per person, 2013. Source: Our World in Data 2019. C40 cities 80% of global food consumption in 2050 will occur in cities
  7. 7. Action #8: Reducing food loss and waste The food supply chain contributes ~13.7 Gt CO2e/yr, and 15–45% of food is lost or wasted (2.1 to 6.2 GtCO2e/yr) THE CHALLENGE: Reduce food loss and waste by 50% in five major supply chains where both GHGs and loss or waste are high, such as beef, dairy, intensive fruit and vegetable production. Figure 10. Share of global food loss and waste by region, 2009 (100% = 1.5 quadrillion kcal). Source: Lipinski et al. 2013. WHERE is action needed?
  8. 8. 1. Build on existing initiatives: SDGs, LDN, 4p1000, 12.3 2. Prioritize hot spot countries, supply chains, commodities 3. Set targets and commitments, for example 2020 Zero Deforestation commitments; IKEA’s “Food is Precious” initiative, with target to reduce food waste by 50% by the August 4. Improve transparency and accountability of finance, commodity procurement, supply chain loss and waste toward targets, matching food demand and supply 5. Mainstream incentives, policies and technologies into national and local government programs, company policies 6. Promote global awareness campaigns and social movements, e.g. C40, Meatless Mondays, youth strikes How? Towards systemic change
  9. 9. CCAFS Flagship on Low Emission Development https://ccafs.cgiar.org/flagships/low-emissions-development Thank you! Lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu ccafs.cgiar.org