Poster presented at CSA Conference 2015 in Montpellier by Marieke Veeger and Joost Vervoort. Read more about the conference: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/3rd-global-science-conference-%E2%80%9Cclimate-smart-agriculture-2015%E2%80%9D#.

1. A multi-stakeholder scenarios approach with multiple plausible, narrative
and numerical, stories about future contexts can help policy makers work
with future uncertainty that may influence adaptive capacity in their re-
gions. However, in many scenarios processes, it is not clear whether the
scenarios have had an impact on decision-making.
Socio-economic scenarios to develop and test agricultural
adaptation policies in the Andes and Central America
Introduction Participatory regional
scenario development
Quantification of scenarios
Stakeholders and decision makers from the public and private sector
including research organizations create a set of multiple regional
scenarios (in this case for Central America and the Andes)
How can we guarantee a successful use of scenarios for
targeted policy guidance?
In the case of Honduras and Colombia we started with a draft version of
a plan, stakeholders developed the scenarios; tested the plan across sce-
narios and made recommendations for a more robust plan
Figure 1: A draft version of a plan or policy is tested and improved
through scenarios (Joost Vervoort, 2014)
Scenarios use for policy and investment guidance
Draf Plan Develop scenarios Test plan
in scenarios
Robust Plan
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Action plan for the Climate Adaptation Strategy for
Agriculture and Livestock.
1. Scenarios are most powerful when they are used
to test and develop specific decision pathways,
such as government policies and action plans.
2. Develop a strong relationship with
decision-makers to build trust and identify draft
policies and information needs.
3. Tailored scenarios are used directly with
stakeholders: A multidisciplinary and multilevel team
of experts and decision makers reviews, develops and
adjusts the policies up to their finest details.
4. It requires openness and flexibility on the side of
the decision-makers and the facilitating researchers to
put changed policies into action.
How can we make sure that
scenarios have an impact on
decision-making that
encourages Climate Smart
Agriculture?
Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG).
Strategy for risk management and climate change
adaptation (2015-2019) for the sector of agriculture
and livestock.
The CCAFS scenario exercise resulted in the integration of a
completely new strategic focus, 4 other new elements and
multiple other improvements on activity level. The strategy is
now being implemented.
Main elements of the scenario exercise
Decision makers tailored the regional scenarios for Central America to
Honduras´ context and received regional model results that were of
interest
Tested the robustness of the strategy in multiple future scenarios: What
are main barriers and enabling factors that should be taken into
account? What strategies are robust enough to succeed in several future
scenarios?
Set up recommendations to improve the effectiveness of the strategies´
milestones, objectives and action points
Impact of the scenario exercise
An entirely new strategic objective within the strategy; focused on
training for farmers in adaptation measures in increase production
capacity
Other elements that were added to the strategy were the improvement
of agro-climatic information systems; early warning systems; and land
use planning
Its original focus on stimulating aquaculture production was expanded
to other types of livestock
CASE Honduras
CASE Colombia
Figure 2: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), define five possible paths that
human societies could follow over the next century (Palazzo A et al, 2014). Each of the
regional CCAFS scenarios is compared and then linked to an SSP: New Maya collapse;
Freedom fighters without freedom; 14 Baktun, the beginning of the Mayan prophecy;
Crowded.
Future scenarios in the face of
climate change
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodi-
ties and Trade (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy Research Insti-
tute (IFPRI) model is designed to examine alternative futures for global
food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security (Rosegrant et al,
2012) .
Each of the regional CCAFS scenarios is compared and then linked to
one of the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the new global scenarios
developed by the IPCC-related research community, of which each have a
different impact on the radiative forcing levels that define climate change
(O´Neill et al, 2014)
Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) created by
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is used to
analyze the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and
bioenergy, which are the main land-based production sectors (Havlík et
Socio-economic
challengesformitigation
Socio-economic challenges
for adaptation
SSP 5:
SSP 2:
SSP 1:
(Mit. Challenges Dominate)
Conventional
Development
(Intermediate Challenges)
Middle of the Road
SSP 3:
(High Challenges)
Fragmentation
(Low Challenges)
Sustainability
SSP 4:
(Adapt. Challenges Dominate)
Inequality
Baktun
14
Freedom
fighters without
freedom
Crowded
New Maya
Collapse
The stakeholder generated scenarios are quantified using two agricul-
tural economic models, each with different assumptions; GLOBIOM
(Havlik et al, 2014) and IMPACT (Rosegrant and Team 2014) .
The stakeholder generated scenarios are quantified using two agricul-
tural economic models, each with different assumptions; GLOBIOM
(Havlik et al, 2014) and IMPACT (Rosegrant and Team 2014) .
To provide inputs for this quantification, drivers like population, GDP,
tecnology, impacts on yields, farm input costs and others are evaluated
for each scenario, in terms of scenario logic, direction of change and
volatility. These semi-quantitative results are then linked to the global
Shared-Socio-economic Pathways (O´Neill et al, 2014).
A set of four socioeconomic, environmental and climate
scenarios for the Andes region was created in 2013 by experts
and decision makers from Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia
that work in agriculture, livelihoods and environment. The
initiative took place in collaboration with the United Nations
Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring
Centre (UNEP-WCMC).
Quantified model results were used to create land use in maps of the
region that show changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services in the
scenarios.
A draft version of the action plan for the Climate Adaptation Stra-
tegy for Agriculture and Livestock was tested for robustness
in each of the four regional scenarios. Recommendations of
improvement were made by a multidisciplinary team of experts of
each country. These will be presented to the Ministry of Planning
and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in April 2015.
The sectorial strategy is of priority for Colombia and thus will be
approved in 2015.
Amplify the scope of the strategy towards biodiversity and
ecosystem services in order to guarantee future food security.
Include a section regarding territorial planning in order to guarantee
future fertile land for agriculture. This in the light of future increase
in urbanization.
Several future scenarios show a shift in markets towards the Andes
region. Therefore efforts should be made to strengthen the
government’s international relations and south-south cooperation in
the region.
Main recommendations of improvement
A set of four socioeconomic, environmental and climate scenarios
for the Central America was created in 2013 by experts and
decision makers of Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama.
Detailed narratives are developed for each scenario
These are based on future factors of change that are relevant and un-
certain for the scope of agriculture, food security, environment and liveli-
hoods.
Authors: Marieke Veeger (University of International Cooperation, Costa Rica) and Joost Vervoort (Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford, United Kingdom)