This is a presentation done by Kindie Tesfaye at the integrated agricultural production and food security forecasting system for East Africa workshop 15-16 April 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya

1. Integrated Agricultural Production and Food
Security Forecasting System for East Africa
Kindie Tesfaye and Project Team
Planning Workshop
15-16 April, Nairobi
Rationale, objectives, and approaches

2. Why early warning systems?
>200 million people
East Africa has been a major hotspot for climate
variability

3. National, regional and international responses
• Relief
• Safety net programs
• Climate prediction and early
warning systems
• Food security classification
(assessments) and disaster
resilience initiatives

4. East Africa is also a major hotspot for climate change
Waha et al. 2013
Climate change - season length impact
Rainfall uncertainties
yield losses under climate change
Tesfaye et al. 2015
Maximum temperatures

5. Emerging needs
• Addressing the effects of not only climate variability
but also climate change
• Improving the spatial and temporal resolution of
climate forecasts
• Increasing need for climate early warning
information and its implications for operational
decisions
• Need for tools that integrate different facets of
information for meaningful analysis and delivery of
early warning information

6. Project objective
Building on existing tools and services, the project
aims to develop a robust, scientifically sound and
user-friendly food security forecasting system for
the East Africa region that integrates improved
seasonal climate, production and ‘price’ forecasts.

7. Focus countries
Population:>200millionpeople
Phase-1: Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania
Phase-2: Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda

8. Framework
Understanding Existing EWS
Improved Seasonal Climate
Forecasts
Production Forecasts
Economic models
Gridded
soil data
Crop
data
Gridded crop
management
Capacity building
Integrated Production and Food Security EWS

9. Activities
1. Review and evaluation of existing food security
assessment methods and tools
2. Develop a robust seasonal climate forecasting system with
high spatial and temporal resolution for the EA region
which will be used as input to crop models, and seasonal
climate outlook advice
3. Provide seasonal crop production forecasts for major food
security crops (maize, sorghum and common bean) using
process-based crop growth simulation models locally
calibrated and evaluated at different spatial scales

10. Activities…
4. Modelling food security at regional, national
and sub-national levels
5. Developing an integrated food security
forecasting tool
6. Capacity development, monitoring and
evaluation and project management

11. Activities, Outputs and Outcomes
• A robust seasonal climate forecasting system with
high spatial and temporal resolution
• Seasonal yield forecasts for major food security
crops
• Refined method for regional, national and sub-
national food security modeling
• Integrated food security forecasting system
Regional and national partners will provide accurate, reliable and
spatially disaggregated food security forecasts to local and regional
governments, donors, and relief agencies to enhance response
timeliness and efficiency.
OUTPUTSOUTCOME
Activity 1, 2,3, 4, 5 & 6
ACTIVITIES

12. Flagship-2 2025 Outcome
By 2025, 30 million farmers, at least 8 million of which are women, improve their
capacity to adapt to climate related risk by accessing effective climate services, and
climate-informed safety nets.
Activity 4Activity 3
Activity 6Activity 5
2019 Project Outcome
Regional and national partners will provide accurate, reliable and spatially
disaggregated food security forecasts to local and regional governments, donors, and
relief agencies (such as WFP) to enhance response timeliness and efficiency.
EA-FP2 2019 Outcome Statement
National Institutions, Donors and Relief Agencies are accessing and using research
informed forecasting tools for timely and efficient food security decision-making …
Integrated Agricultural Production and Food Security Forecasting System for East
Africa
Activity 1 Activity 2
OUTPUTS 1, 2, 3, 4

13. Target users
• Regional
– ICPAC
– FEWS NET
• National
– Met offices
– DRMFS offices
– Local NGOs
– National and local governments
• International
– WFP
– FAO
– International NGO’s working in the region

14. Thank You!