IFPRI provides concise updates on its foresight activities, including scenario analysis commissioned by USAID and collaboration with other organizations to publish papers on topics like changing climate, diets, and health. IFPRI also supports the foresight community and Global Futures initiative through analysis and hosting events. A multi-center effort led by various CGIAR research leaders is underway to produce a CGIAR Foresight Report in 2019-2020 to inform funders and partners.

1. IFPRI foresight update
• Scenario analysis commissioned by USAID as input to the multi-
donor initiative on Crops to End Hunger
• report with USDA-ERS delivered in June 2018
• EIB presentation in August 2018, System Council document in October
2018
• IMPACT, IMPACT-SIMM (also MIRAGE, RIAPA)
• Collaboration with Oxford, CSIRO, AgMIP et al.
• papers on changing climate, diets, environment and health
• Collaboration with other CGIAR Centers through Global Futures
and PIM Cluster 1.1
Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019

2. • Support for foresight community of practice and analysis through Global
Futures and Strategic Foresight and PIM Cluster 1.1
• Global Food Security special issue on foresight and agriculture
• 4 papers published/accepted (livestock, fish, hindsight & foresight, RTB crops)
• others in the pipeline (cereals, smallholders, employment, tradeoffs)
• 2018 projects exploring the demand side
• animal-source foods, RTB crops, major cereals, GLDC crops
• Inputs to ISPC foresight activities
• Aberdeen workshop May 2018, Science Forum October 2018, System Council
side event November 2018
• Support for the CGIAR Foresight Report
PIM foresight update
Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019

3. www.cgiar.org
CGIAR Foresight Report
3
• Multi-Center, multi-CRP effort
• Steering committee of CGIAR Science Leaders
• Stephan Weise (DDG Bioversity, Chair), Marianne Bänziger (DDG CIMMYT), Vincent
Gitz (Dir FTA), Oscar Ortiz (DDG CIP), Mike Phillips (Dir FISH), Frank Place (Dir PIM),
Tom Randolph (Dir LIVESTOCK), May-Guri Saethe (DDG IITA), Mark Smith (DDG
IWMI), also Keith Wiebe (IFPRI), Steve Prager (CIAT)
• Seeks to inform CGIAR as well as funders and national partners
using a variety of approaches
• Inventory & scoping, analysis, synthesis and drafting in 2019;
review, revision, publication and dialog in 2020… then repeat?
• Importance of process in addition to outputs
• Resources… hopefully from multiple sources
Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019

4. Data and tools
What’s available? What’s missing?
• Data
• Available: FAOSTAT, IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, numerous micro studies…
• Missing: pasture and fodder prices, direct climate impacts on livestock…
• Models
• Available: global ag sector and full-economy models, IAMs, some country-level
models, ex-post statistical models
• Missing: modeling climate variability rather than just trends, links between PE and
CGE models and between ex-post analyses and ex-ante models
• Available: crop models – numerous (esp. staples), but many not calibrated globally
• Missing: fruits and vegetables, pest and disease models?
• Missing: gender, youth, equity dimensions
• Process
• Available: various initiatives for particular purposes (both qualitative & quantitative)
• Missing: a systematic, transparent and on-going process for contributing, analyzing,
reviewing and sharing foresight for decision making
Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019