Presented by Tran Van The as part of the USAID & CCAFS Low-Emission Rice webinar on 29 May 2019. For more details about this webinar visit the introduction presentation (Land use and climate research by the CGIAR, supported by USAID's Office of Global Climate Change) or visit the CCAFS and USAID websites.

1. An investment plan in
support of Vietnam's
Nationally Determined
Contributions to the
Paris Agreement from
rice production in the
Mekong River Delta
Tran Van The , Mai Van Trinh, Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, Le Hoang Anh, Meryl Breton Richards,
Leo Sebastian, Eva Wollenberg, Vu Duong Quynh and Bjoern Ole Sander

2. Rice is the most important crop
in Vietnam
The MRD, the most important region for
rice: 12% of natural areas, 19% of
population, half of rice cultivated area,
shared 50% of rice quantity, 95% of rice
for exportation
1. Introduction
Source: GSO (2016), GoVN (2012)
Source: GSO (2016), GoVN (2012)
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
2010 2015 2020
Cultivated rice areas (1000 ha)
Whold country MRD
7,750.0
Ratio of crop, 2020
Rice Maize
Tuber crop Vegetable
Anunal industrial crop Perenial industrial crop
Fruits
Whole country

3. Challenges to climate change and extreme climate risk on rice
Drought & salted risks for rice
in MRD (medium yr)
Flooding risk to rice in MRD
region (medium yr)
Flooding risk to rice in MRD
region (extreme yr)
Drought & salted risks for rice
in MRD (extreme yr)
Climate
vulnerability
map on rice
Source: FAO/NAPs (2018)Source: Nguyen Hong Son, Bui Tan Yen, Leocadio Sebastian, 2018 –
Working paper No. 220, CCAFS
1. Introduction

4. GHG emissions and potential GHG reduction from
rice
Source: MONRE (2017)
1. Introduction

5. Domestic
investment
plan for AWD
Policy gap analysis
Quantification of
investment needed
Consultation with finance experts;
Identification of international funding
sources
Feasibility analysis on AWD
(separated study):
• Geographic suitability
• Barriers to adoption
• Identify incentives and enabling conditions
to encourage large-scale adoption
Identification of policy
levers to incentivize
adoption
2. Framework and Methodology
Analysis of costs,
benefits and risks (An
Giang, Kien Giang, Soc
Trang pro. In MRD)

6. 3.1. Share of GHG reduction in NDCs from rice production
Unconditional
mitigation options
Potential GHG
reduction
MtCO2e %
I. Total 6.4 100
I.I. Crop production 3.2 50
A2. Reuse of agro-
residues
0.4 12.5
A3. AWD/SRI 0.9 28.1
A4. Introduction of
biochar
1.1 34.4
A5. Integrated crop
management in rice
cultivation
0.5 15.6
A6. Integrated crop
management in annual
upland crops
0.3 9.4
I.II. Remaining
agriculture (livestock,
fishery)
3.2 50
Conditional mitigation
options
Potential GHG
reduction
MtCO2e %
I. Total 39.8 100
I.I. Crop production 36.4 91.5
A7. Substitution of urea with
ammonium sulfate
3.2 8.8
A8. Reuse of upland crop
residues
0.3 8.8
A9. AWD/SRI 7 19.2
A10. Introduction of biochar 18.8 51.7
A14. Improved technology for
waste treatment from crops
3.4 9.3
A15. Improved irrigation for
coffee
3.4 9.3
A16. ICM in upland crops 0.3 0.8
I.2. Remaining agriculture
(livestock)
3.4 8.5
3. Results

7. 3.2 Policy levers and gaps for AWD
AWD priority in a variety of supportive policies:
• a green growth strategy effective until 2030 (Decision No 403/QD-TTg)
• a restructured project of crop production development (Decision No 1006/QD-BNN)
• restructured rice production project up to 2030 (Decision No 1898/QD-BNN-TT)
• Vietnam’s plan for Paris Agreement implementation (Decision No 2053/QD-TTg)
• Action plan to response CC in agr. Vision 2050 (Decision 819/QD-BNN-KHCN)
• strategy and plan for rice development (Decision No 1006/QD-BNN)
• strategy of MRD development to response CC (Resolution 120/NQ-CP)
• other projects and programs (VnSAT, the extension project for rice and the sustainable
development plan for the MRD region).
Remains of policy gaps and limitations:
• Ambitious targets and limited financial resources
• Poor linkages and capacity for LEDs
• Low benefits and small size
• Rich performance but poor replication
• Poor mechanism support (land tenure, loan support)
3. Results

8. 3.3. Cost-Benefit Analysis on AWD in MRD
3. Results

9. 3.4. Proposed investment plan for AWD in MRD
1. Improved instructional and policy instruments for developing
AWD in MRD region: policy mechanism, integrated AWD in master plan,
restructured project; technical guidelines; investment guidelines;
2. Capacity improvement for policy makers, private partners and
farmers for developing AWD in MRD region: local officers, farmers
and enterprise communities; partnership stakeholders (PPP); sharing
international and local experiences; negotiation capacity;
3. Improved national capacity for NDCs implementation for AWD in
rice production: capacity and efficiency assessment of irrigation system for
AWD; direct supportive investment for expanding AWD (900,000 ha); MRV
development and operation in local and link to international system.
4. Improved coordination mechanism between the parties for AWD
in rice production: investment for Local, regional and international
dialogue on LED, AWD and MRD sustainable development; developing
linkages with financial organizations (banks, fund holders, credits, enterprises,
farmers and policy-makers
3. Results

10. 3.5. Investment allocation and impacts
Province Potential
GHG
reduction
by 2030
(MtCO2e)
Net benefit earning
With
AWD
Difference
(-/+) to
Non-AWD
Long An 0.49 103.39 16.67
Tien Giang 1.04 218.73 35.28
Ben Tre 0.48 100.45 16.20
Tra Vinh 0.84 177.29 28.59
Vinh Long 0.51 106.53 17.18
Dong Thap 1.41 295.65 47.68
An Giang 1.81 379.67 61.23
Kien Giang 0.78 163.10 26.30
Can Tho 0.94 197.98 31.93
Hau Giang 0.51 106.91 17.24
Soc Trang 1.48 310.56 50.08
Bac Lieu 0.30 63.63 10.26
Ca Mau 0.38 78.78 12.71
Total 10.97 2,302.68 371.36
Economic impacts from AWD to farmers (M.USD)
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
Policy reform Technical
capacity
strengthening
MRV operation Research,
performance
and planning
Hard
infrastructure
M.US$
Investment budget for AWD in MRD in estimation
State budget Local budget International Private
Investment allocation in estimation for
AWD in MRD (M.US$): ~1 million ha
3. Results

11. 3.6. Challenges and uncertainty
1. Policy development and implementation: policy
development as demands and politic perspectives and financial
sources (central budget, local budget, private and international)
2. CBA: direct costs belongs to private, be small and estimable
while indirect costs belongs to communities, states, huge and not
easy to estimate, vs. financial benefits be estimable and belong to
private, co-benefits, not easy to estimable and exist in long -term
3. Correct prices of GHG reduction from rice: social
costs/benefits (infrastructure, irrigation investment, environmental
costs, natural resources accounting;
4. MRV: under developed and complicated MRV for AWD
5. NDC: Existing GHG mitigation practices for unconditional GHG
mitigation options for NDCs and international prior for rice?
3. Results

12. 1. AWD is the important
mitigation options in NDCs
and policy levers in MRD;
2. Investment plan for AWD
requested high amount for
hard infrastructure while
economic return in long-
run and to private
(farmers); and
3. More prior domestic
financial sources and
international support for
developing AWD in MRD,
as promising GHG
mitigation options to
contribute to NDCs.
4. Conclusion and recommendation

13. Thank you very much
for your attention!
Tran Van The
Institute for Agricultural Environment (IAE)
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Vietnam
tranvanthe.iae@gmail.com