Post-Election Briefing from the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation
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Thanks to Joe Stewart, who presented a post-election briefing to the Economic Development & Public Policy Committee on Thursday, Nov. 6.
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Post-Election Briefing from the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation
- 1. 2014 Election Updates & Insights Post-Election Briefing November 6, 2014 Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520
- 2. NC FreeEnterprise Foundation The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization exclusively focused on providing innovative educational programs to foster informed civic involvement and a better understanding of how voters perceive key public policy issues that impact our state’s economic vitality. NCFEF does not lobby, or participate in any way with political campaigns.
- 3. NCFEF in action – 2014 Election
- 4. What was the 2014 election ‘about?’ Voter Turnout = 44% Black voter participation = 19 – 20% White UNA voters in suburban and rural areas = 60:40 for GOP White DEM xover = 12 – 14%
- 5. Conventional Voter Behavior (CVB) NC CVB = 0 Greater Diversity Less Native Suburban Swingers
- 6. More political ads run than any other state
- 7. US Senate Kay Hagan (I) Incumbent 47% Thom Tillis NC House Speaker 49% Sean Haugh Delivery Driver 4% Was polling off somehow? In Washington v Raleigh battle, Washington (Obama) lost Momentum at the end mattered Did deluge of ads make a difference, because a deluge of ads is probably the new norm Was LIB a spoiler? Haugh = 108,177 Tillis – Hagan = 48,501
- 8. LIB high water mark 2014 Thom Tillis 48.88% Kay Hagan 47.20% Sean Haugh 3.74% Write In 0.18% 2010 2002 Richard Burr 54.81% Elizabeth H. Dole 53.56% Elaine Marshall 43.05% Erskine B. Bowles 44.96% Michael Beitler 2.09% Sean Haugh 1.45% Write-in 0.05% Write In 0.03%
- 9. 2014 US Senate, by winner in county
- 10. 2014 US Senate, by margin of victory in county AVERY BURKE CLEVELAND GUILFORD BERTIE MARTIN ALLEGHANY SURRY STOKES ANSON ASHE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK BUNCOMBE CABARRUS CALDWELL CARTERET CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CHEROKEE CLAY COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DAVIDSON DAVIE HALIFAX DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GATES GRAHAM GREENE HARNETT HAYWOOD HENDERSON HERTFORD HOKE HYDE IREDELL JACKSON JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR LINCOLN MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MECKLENBURG MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PENDER PERSON PITT POLK RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON ROCKINGHAM ROWAN RUTHERFORD SAMPSON STANLY SWAIN TYRRELL UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WATAUGA WAYNE WILKES WILSON YADKIN YANCEY Strong GOP > 5% R Lean GOP 2% R - 5% R Competitive 2% R - 2% D Lean DEM 2% D - 5% D Strong DEM > 5% D
- 11. 2014 Senate, NY Times on intensity within VTD
- 12. NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Martin (former Associate Supreme Court Justice, now Chief Justice) 72% Ola Lewis (current NC Superior Court Judge) 28% Associate Justice (Martin Seat) Sam J. Ervin IV (current Court of Appeals Judge) 53% Robert N. Hunter Jr. (former Court of Appeals Judge, now Associate Justice) 47% Associate Justice (Hudson Seat) Robin E. Hudson (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 52% Eric L. Levinson (fmr. Court of Appeals Judge) 48% Associate Justice (Beasley Seat) Cheri Beasley (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 50.1% Mike Robinson (Attorney) 49.9%
- 13. Court of Appeals Court of Appeals (Hunter Seat) Lucy Inman (Special Superior Court Judge) 52% Bill Southern (District Court Judge - District 17-B) 48% Court of Appeals (Stroud Seat) Donna Stroud (Incumbent Judge) 100% Court of Appeals (Davis Seat) Mark Davis (Incumbent Judge) 59% Paul Holcombe (District Court Judge - District 11) 41%
- 14. Court of Appeals Court of Appeals Chief Judge (Martin Seat) John Arrowood – 14% Sabra Faires Patricia "Tricia" Shields Betsy Bunting Abe Jones Elizabeth Davenport Scott Lori G. Christian Ann Kirby John M. Tyson – 24% Jeffrey Cook Keischa Lovelace Marion Warren J. Brad Donovan Marty Martin Chuck Winfree Daniel Patrick Donahue Hunter Murphy Valerie Johnson Zachary Joseph "Jody" Newsome
- 15. 2014 US Congress CVB Map
- 16. Congressional Races – 2014 Winners Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP 12 - Adams* 7 - D. Rouser* 9 - R. Pittenger 1 - G. Butterfield 8 - R. Hudson 11 - M. Meadows 4 - D. Price 3 - W. Jones 5 - V. Foxx 13 - G. Holding 10 - P. McHenry 6 - M. Walker* 2 - R. Ellmers 3 DEM - 10 REP *freshman members = 3
- 17. US Congress NC 2 CVB: Strong REP Clay Aiken Entertainer 41% Renee Ellmers Incumbent 59% NC 6 CVB: Strong REP Laura Fjeld Fmr. General Counsel 41% Mark Walker Pastor 59%
- 18. US Congress Jonathan Barfield New Hanover Co. Comm. 37% David Rouzer Consultant 59% CVB: Lean REP Wesley Casteen Attorney/ CPA 4% NC 7
- 19. 2014 NC Senate CVB Map
- 20. 2015 Partisan Control of NC Senate Districts
- 21. NC Senate CVB Breakdown Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP 28 - G. Robinson 3 - E. Smith-Ingram* 19 - W. Meredith 25 – T. McInnis* 45 - D. Soucek 29 - J. Tillman 40 - J. Waddell* 23 - V. Foushee 18 - C. Barefoot 15 - J. Alexander* 50 - J. Davis 30 – S. Randleman 38 - J. Ford 5 - D. Davis 1 - B. Cook 9 - M. Lee* 46 - W. Daniel 33 – S. Bingham 20 - F. McKissick 13 - J. Smith* 8 - B. Rabon 41 - J. Tarte 35 - T. Tucker 14 - D. Blue 22 - M. Woodard 17 - T. Barringer 26 - P. Berger 42 - A. Wells* 4 - A. Bryant 37 - J. Jackson** 10 - B. Jackson 6 - H. Brown 44 - D. Curtis 21 - B. Clark 16 - J. Stein 12 - R. Rabin 24 - R. Gunn 31 - J. Krawiec 32 - E. Parmon 49 - T. Van Duyn** 27 - T. Wade 7 - L. Pate 34 - A. Brock 11 - B. Newton 47 - R. Hise 43 - K. Harrington 48 - T. Apodaca 39 - B. Rucho 2 - N. Sanderson 36 - F. Hartsell 16 DEM - 34 REP *freshmen members = 7
- 22. Partisan Balance of Power – NC Senate 12 = already winners 12 = incumbents in SR districts 4 = incumbents in LR districts 2 = open seats in LR districts 1 = challenge to DEM in LR district (+1) 3 = incumbents in COMP districts 16 34
- 23. NC Senate – Open Seat Races SD 9 CVB: Lean REP SD 13 CVB: Strong DEM Elizabeth Redenbaugh Fmr. New Hanover BOE 44% Michael Lee Attorney 56% Jane Smith Retired Realtor 63% Bernard White Small Business Owner 37%
- 24. NC Senate – Open Seat Races SD 15 CVB: Lean REP SD 40 CVB: Strong DEM Tom Bradshaw Fmr. Raleigh Mayor 49.6% John Alexander Business Owner 50.4% Joyce Waddell Educator WINNER No Opponent
- 25. NC Senate – Races of Notes SD 1 CVB: Competitive SD 8 CVB: Lean REP Stan White Realtor 47% Bill Cook Incumbent ’13 LBR: 78.59 53% Ernie Ward Veterinarian 43% Bill Rabon Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 82.03 57%
- 26. NC Senate – Races of Note SD 10 CVB: Lean REP SD 18 CVB: Competitive Donald Rains Mayor of Princeton 38% Brent Jackson Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 88.06 62% Sarah Crawford Non-Profit Executive 47% Chad Barefoot Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 83.11 53%
- 27. NC Senate – Races To Watch SD 19 CVB: Competitive Billy Richardson Attorney 46% Wesley Meredith Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 80.00 54% SD 25 CVB: Lean REP Gene McLaurin Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 80.28 47% Tom McInnis Small Business Owner 50% P.H. Dawkins 3%
- 28. NC Senate – Races of Note SD 50 CVB: Strong REP Jane Hipps Retired Educator 46% Jim Davis Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 84.31 54%
- 29. 2014 NC House CVB Map
- 30. 2015 Partisan Control of NC House Districts
- 31. NC House CVB Breakdown Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP 29 - L. Hall 50 - G. Meyer 66 - K. Goodman 119 - J. Queen 118 - M. Presnell 109 - D. Bumgardner 90 - S. Stevens 78 - A. McNeill 106 - C. Cunnigham 39 - D. Jackson 46 - K. Waddell 2 - L. Yarborough* 6 - P. Tine 19 - T. Davis Jr. 117 - C. McGrady 70 - P. Hurley 102 - B. Carney 12 - G. Graham 54 - R. Reives II 22 - W. Brisson 9 - B. Brown 61 - J. Faircloth 84 - R. Turner 80 - R. Younts 31 - M. Michaux 11 - D. Hall 44 - R. Glazier 92 - C. Jeter 63 - S. Ross 59 - J. Hardister 28 - J. Langdon 73 - L. Zachary* 99 - R. Moore 34 - G. Martin 115 – J. Ager* 93 - J. Jordan 111 - T. Moore 52 - J. Boles 85 - J. Dobson 33 - R. Gill 7 - B. Richardson 41 - G. Adcock* 51 - B. Salmon* 104 - D. Bishop* 10 - J. Bell 97 - J. Saine 38 - Y. Holley 18 - S. Hamilton 45 - J. Szoka 40 - M. Avila 26 - L. Daughtry 83 - L. Johnson 79 - J. Howard 107 - K. Alexander 21 - L. Bell 8 - S. Martin 53 - D. Lewis 25 - J. Collins 105 - J. Schaffer 89 - M. Setzer 60 - C. Brockman* 23 - S. Willingham* 49 - G. Pendleton** 35 - C. Malone 86 - H. Blackwell 17 - F. Iler 95 - J. Fraley* 58 - R. Johnson* 72 - E. Hanes 36 - N. Dollar 75 - D. Lambeth 77 - Warren 94 - J. Elmore 56 - V. Insko 43 - E. Floyd 65 - B. Jones 55 - M. Brody 112 - M. Hager 68 - C. Horn 24 - J. Butterfield 47 - C. Graham 116 - B. Turner* 37 - P. Stam 4 - J. Dixon 87 - E. Starnes 57 - P. Harrison 32 - N. Baskerville 1 - B. Steinburg 103 - B. Brawley 91 - B. Holloway 13 - P. McElraft 71 - E. Terry 30 - P. Luebke 14 - G. Cleveland 113 - C. Whitmire 69 - D. Arp 101 - B. Earle 5 - H. Hunter III* 88 - R. Bryan 110 - K. Hastings 76 - C. Ford 48 - G. Pierce 82 - L. Pittman 74 - D. Conrad 81 - R. Brown 114 - S. Fisher 64 - D. Riddell 16 - C. Millis 67 - J. Burr 42 - M. Lucas 3 - M. Speciale 20 - R. Catlin 120 - R. West 100 - T. Cotham 62 - J. Blust 15 - P. Shepard 96 - J. Adams* 27 - M. Wray 98 - J. Bradford* 108 - J. Torbett 46 DEM - 74 REP *freshmen members = 14
- 32. Partisan Balance of Power – NC House • 31 = already winners • 25 = incumbents in SR districts • 3 = open seats in SR districts • 12 = incumbents in LR districts (+2) • 1 = challenge to DEM in LR district • 4 = incumbents in COMP districts (+2) • 2 = open seats in COMP districts (+1) 46 74
- 33. NC House – Open Seat Races HD 2 CVB: Competitive Ray Jeffers Person Co. Commissioner 43% Larry Yarborough Businessman 57% HD 58 CVB: Strong DEM Ralph Johnson Greensboro Zoning Comm. WINNER No Opponent
- 34. NC House – Open Seat Races HD 60 CVB: Strong DEM Cecil Brockman Consultant WINNER No Opponent HD 73 CVB: Strong REP No Opponent Lee Zachary Attorney WINNER
- 35. NC House – Open Seat Races HD 96 CVB: Strong REP Cliff Moone Part-Time Professor 33% Jay Adams Commercial Realtor 67% HD 98 CVB: Strong REP Natasha Marcus Attorney 45% John Bradford Engineer 55%
- 36. NC House – Open Seat Races HD 104 CVB: Strong REP Dan Bishop Attorney 75% Eric Cable Financial Services 25%
- 37. NC House – Races of Note HD 1 CVB: Lean REP HD 6 CVB: Lean REP Garry Meiggs Camden Co. Commissioner 31% Bob Steinburg Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 87.15 69% Paul Tine Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 68.10 54% Mattie Lawson Activist 46%
- 38. NC House – Races of Note HD 35 CVB: Lean REP HD 36 CVB: Lean REP Brian Mountcastle Small Business Owner 44% Chris Malone Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 83.57 56% Lisa Baker Small Business Owner 46% Nelson Dollar Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 88.27 54%
- 39. NC House – Races of Note HD 40 CVB: Lean REP HD 41 CVB: Competitive Margaret Broadwell Small Business Owner 46% Marilyn Avila Incumbent ’13 LBR: 88.87 54% HD 41 Gale Adcock Nurse Practitioner 51% Tom Murry Incumbent ’13 LBR: 93.44 49%
- 40. NC House – Races of Note Rick Glazier Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 36.33 52% Richard Button Retired Engineer 48% HD 44 CVB: Lean DEM
- 41. NC House – Races of Note HD 49 CVB: Competitive Kim Hanchette Diabetes Educator 48% Gary Pendleton Small Business Owner 52% HD 46 CVB: Lean DEM Ken Waddell Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 57.15 53% Brenden Jones Small Business Owner 47%
- 42. NC House – Races of Note HD 92 CVB: Competitive Robin Bradford Activist 47% Charles Jeter Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 86.00 53% HD 51 CVB: Lean REP Brad Salmon Attorney & Farmer 54% Mike Stone Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 88.80 46%
- 43. NC House – Races of Note HD 93 CVB: Lean REP HD 115 CVB: Competitive Sue Counts Ret NC Coop. Ext. 47% Jonathan Jordan Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 87.50 53% John Ager Farmer/ Land Developer 51% Nathan Ramsey Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 88.52 49%
- 44. NC House – Races of Note HD 116 CVB: Lean REP HD 118 CVB: Lean REP Brian Turner Small Business Owner 52% Tim Moffitt Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 95.65 48% Dean Hicks Yancey Co. Commissioner 49% Michele Presnell Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 86.25 51% HD 116
- 45. NC House – Races of Note HD 119 CVB: Competitive Joe Sam Queen Incumbent ‘13 LBR: 32.33 52% Mike Clampitt Ret. Firefighter 48%
- 46. What we were saying … Significant $ Advantage NC House GOP = 2:1 NC Senate GOP = 2.7:1 Outside Money in US Senate, Judicial, Key Legislative Races Congressional Races NC7 Likely Goes R NC2 & NC6 Likely Stay R NC12 Likely Stays D US Senate = Tight, Likely to Break R Near the End Seems Very Likely NC General Assembly Remains R Seems Likely +/- Current Numbers
- 47. What did we learn from 2014 Outside money matters … has eclipsed candidates and campaigns Candidates matter a lot … especially in the suburbs North Carolina’s politics is indeed nationalized, but local issues still (and probably always will) matter The marketing of accomplishments matters, especially if the other side has a lot of $$$ Even celebrities must reflect the voters of the district
- 48. 2016 Elections have begun Next up: Select Speaker - Do NC House Outcomes Impact Choices? Do Governor and Legislative Leaders Find a Way to Get Along? 2016 - Triple Full Moon: President (PRIMARY), Senate, Governor Other legislative, statewide, Congressional open seats? 2016 Likely To See Large Sums of Outside Money (Again) Suburban Districts Continue To Grow, Become More PURPLE
- 50. 2014 Election Updates & Insights Thank you for your support! Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Joe’s Slide
- Joe’s Slide