CA Consumer Finances shares the findings of its survey of the consumer credit market worlwide at end-2010 for the third year running. At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR 5,473 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% on 2009.
2. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Summary
For the third year in a row, Sofinco, a brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance, has devoted an issue of its Consumer Credit Overview to a
special report on the global consumer credit market.
At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR 5,473 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% on 2009.
The size of the market varies from region to region:
North America (EUR 2,190 billion) accounts for almost 40% of global outstanding loans;
In contrast, Africa (EUR 85 billion) represents just 2% of global outstanding loans;
Asia and the Middle East combined represent the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstanding loans of EUR 1,540 billion;
Europe comes in behind this with EUR 1,310 billion.
The global consumer credit market remains quite concentrated:
The five main markets (US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) represented 62% of global outstandings in 2010; this figure is however
down: it was 76% in 2008;
The 15 largest markets account for 83% of global outstandings.
The 2.5% global increase observed in 2010 is distributed unevenly:
In 2010, consumer credit outstandings grew rapidly in South America (+22%) and, to a lesser extent, in Asia and the Middle East (+7.1%),
Africa (+6.6%) and Oceania (+2.2%).
In contrast, they continued to shrink in North America (-0.6%) and Europe (-0.3%). This decline was even more marked in the 27 EU member
states (-2.8%).
We can therefore see that the emerging and developed markets are converging at an ever-faster rate.
Differences also exist in the level of outstandings per capita, although these are becoming less marked. In 2010, the average outstandings per
capita worldwide stood at around EUR 790.
The level of outstandings per capita is by far greatest in Canada (EUR 10,157), followed by Japan (EUR 5,973) and the US (EUR 5,886).
In Europe, average outstandings per capita are modest (EUR 1,667).
In most emerging markets, outstandings per capita are rapidly increasing, in particular in Latin and South America (Brazil, Argentina) but also in
Asia and the Middle East (China, Indonesia, Thailand).
Page 2 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
3. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Methodology & foreword
The primary data on consumer credit presented in this report were sourced from central banks and national statistical institutions.
They were processed by the economic analysis firm Asterès so as to ensure consistency in terms of product and market scope:
In terms of operators, they include banking and non-banking agents (i.e. all credit institutions).
In terms of products, they include bank overdrafts, even those obtained for purchasing consumer goods, but exclude mortgage loans.
To enable comparisons to be drawn between markets, all data were converted into euro at the average 2010 exchange rate. This is an important
point that may explain significant variations between years.
The majority of data presented in this report are estimated and the complete accuracy thereof cannot be guaranteed.
Variations may exist in the quality of statistics obtained from primary sources (frequently central banks), and sometimes in the availability of such
statistics. This is particularly true of statistics relating to non-banking operators.
For the purposes of this report, six geographic regions were defined in line with certain specific features of the consumer credit market.
These six regions are:
North America Africa
South America Asia & the Middle East
Europe Oceania
While these regions are broadly based on their standard geographical definition, the following points should be noted:
In addition to the 27 EU member states, Europe as referred to in this report includes Switzerland, Norway, Russia, Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia and
Turkey.
Given the change in scope, the figures indicated may differ from data presented in the Sofinco report entitled "The European consumer credit
market in 2010" published in June 2011, which dealt exclusively with the 27 EU member states.
North America includes the US, Canada and Mexico.
The Middle East is combined with Asia.
Page 3 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
4. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Global consumer credit map
Breakdown of consumer credit outstandings at end-2010
Page 4 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
5. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Marked disparity between regions
40% of global outstandings is accounted for by North America, i.e. the US (33% of global outstandings), Canada (6%) and, to a
lesser extent, Mexico.
Asia and the Middle East (26%) represents the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstandings of EUR 1,540 billion, a
figure that far outstrips Europe's outstandings of EUR 1,310 billion.
Consumer credit outstandings in Africa represent just 1.6% of the global total. South Africa is the leading African market with
estimated outstandings of around EUR 51 billion. Nevertheless, the gaps are narrowing.
2010 consumer credit outstandings per region (in EUR billions) Percentage of global outstandings
100%
North America 2,190 (40%) North America (40%)
(28%) 80%
Asia & the Middle East 1,540
Asia & the Middle East (28%)
Europe 1,310 (24%)
60% Europe (24%)
Latin America 237 (4.3%)
Oceania 112 (2.1%) Latin America (4.3%)
40%
Africa 85 (1.6%)
Oceania (2.1%)
20%
Africa (1.6%)
Source: Asterès 0%
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6. Global consumer credit at end-2010
An annual increase of 2.5%
The global consumer credit market recovered in 2010, expanding by 2.5%. However, this global increase conceals a decoupling
of emerging countries, where there is strong growth in consumer credit, from developed countries, which are struggling.
The strongest growth in the consumer credit market was recorded in Latin America (21.9%). Brazil, the region's leading market,
displayed particularly strong momentum (+30%), as did Argentina (+37%).
In Africa, market growth was solid (+6.6%), particularly in South Africa.
Total outstandings in Asia and the Middle East grew by 7.1% compared with 2009, primarily thanks to the momentum of certain
Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand). However, in Japan, the zone's largest market, outstandings shrank by 5.3%.
Ex-Japan, growth in Asia and the Middle East amounted to 24%.
For their part, the North American and European markets continued to contract (shedding 0.6% and 0.3% respectively).
In Europe, outside of the EU where outstandings fell by 2.5%, certain emerging markets continued to grow (Turkey) or rebounded
sharply (Russia).
Changes are calculated using amounts in EUR (2010 average exchange rate).
Change in consumer credit outstandings per region from 2009 to 2010 (%):
Latin America 21.9%
Asia & the Middle East 7.1%
Africa 6.6%
Oceania 2.2%
Europe -0.3%
North America -0.6%
Source: Asterès
Page 6 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
7. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Context: global consumer spending
Global growth recovered in 2010 (+4%), driven by the strength of emerging markets (+7.5%).
Global consumer spending held up well overall (+2.4%). Here too, emerging markets (+4.6%) bolstered global demand.
Average annual growth rate 2000-2010 (vol., %)
2000- Annual growth in 2010 (vol., %)
7.5%
4.9%
4.6%
4.6%
4.0%
2.4%
2.1%
2.7%
2.4%
1.5%
1.2% 1.5%
Emerging countries Developed countries Global Emerging countries Developed countries Global
GDP Household spending GDP Household spending
Sources: Feri, Asterès
Page 7 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
8. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Global outstandings per capita at EUR 787 in 2010
In North America, the average consumer credit outstandings per capita exceeded EUR 4,800. In particular, the highest level
worldwide was recorded in Canada, where outstandings per capita topped EUR 10,000.
Outstandings per capita were also high in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) at around EUR 3,200.
In Europe, the figure stands at a little over EUR 1,600, due to the inclusion of emerging countries (primarily Central and Eastern
European countries) and certain large developed countries (Southern Europe) where the use of credit remains moderate.
Sharp growth was noted in outstandings per capita in Latin and South America (now at around EUR 500).
The figure is also on the increase in Asia and the Middle East (EUR 400). There are marked disparities even within this region. The
amount of outstandings per capita in Japan (EUR 5,973) is 38 times higher than in China. The consumer credit market has been
rapidly expanding in most countries in the region, in particular in China and South-East Asia.
On average, consumer credit indebtedness in Africa remains low. However, as in Asia, there are great differences within the region:
outstandings per capita exceed EUR 1,000 in South Africa whereas in the continent's northern countries, the figure is on average 10
times less than that.
Outstandings per capita (2010, in EUR):
North America 4,819
Oceania 3,195
Europe 1,667
Latin America 497
Asia & the Middle East 370
Africa 82
Source: Asterès
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9. Global consumer credit at end-2010
The weighting of the 5 largest markets has fallen: from 76% in 2008 to 62%
in 2010
Although the global consumer credit market is still concentrated, it is becoming increasingly less so: indeed, the five largest markets
(US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) now represent just 62% of global outstandings compared with 76% in 2008.
In addition, the 15 largest markets now account for just 83% of global consumer credit outstandings compared with their 90% share
of the global market in 2008.
These figures reflect the sustained growth seen in most emerging markets (particularly China, now the world's 6th-largest market).
Weighting of the 5 largest markets in total global outstandings Share of total global outstandings (2010, %)
(2010, %)
76%
15 largest markets 83%
65%
62%
10 largest markets 77%
5 largest markets 62%
2008 2009 2010
Source: Asterès
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10. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Top 15: China and Brazil now rank above France
The US is the world's largest consumer credit market, with outstandings amounting to EUR 1,815 billion at end-2010. This is more
than twice the level of outstandings in Japan, the next largest market.
With EUR 249 billion in outstandings, the UK represents the fourth-largest market in the world, ranking just below Canada (EUR 343
billion), and is Europe's leading market.
Fifth in the world, Germany is the largest market in the eurozone.
With estimated outstandings of EUR 209 billion at end-2010, representing a leap of 54.2%, China is the second-largest Asian market
after Japan and sixth-largest in the world, ahead of France.
Brazil has also overtaken France in terms of outstandings (EUR 172 billion). It is the largest market in Latin America as well as one of
the region's most thriving markets (+29.6% compared with 2009).
2010 outstandings of the 15 largest markets (in EUR billions):
United States 1,815
Japan 763
Canada 343
UK 249
Germany 229
China 209
Brazil 172
France 152
South Korea 152
Italy 114
Australia 98
Spain 90
Russia 69
Sources: central banks, Asterès
Indonesia 57
Turkey 56
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11. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Top 15: change in outstandings of the 15 largest markets from 2009 to 2010
The Chinese consumer credit market grew by more than 60%, comparable to the increase reported between 2008 and 2009.
The US market, the largest in the world in terms of outstandings, shrank by 1.7%.
The UK, Europe's leading market, also contracted by 2.7%.
Change in consumer credit outstandings from 2009 to 2010 (%):
China 59%
Turkey 31.5%
Brazil 29.6%
Indonesia 25.8%
Russia 16.6%
South Korea 9.8%
Canada 5.0%
Australia 2.4%
France 1.7%
Italy 0.9%
Germany 0.5%
United States -1.7%
Japan -5.3%
UK -5.7%
Spain -10.7%
Sources: central banks, Asterès
Page 11 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
12. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Top 15: outstandings per capita in the leading 15 markets
Canada has the highest level of consumer credit outstandings per capita in the world, at over EUR 10,000.
Japan ranks second (EUR 5,973), closely followed by the US (EUR 5,886), which is trailed by Australia (EUR 4,614) and the UK
(EUR 3,998).
Outstandings per capita in Spain dropped sharply in 2010, now standing at less than EUR 2,000.
Although not among the fifteen largest markets in terms of total outstandings, Ireland (EUR 4,471), Denmark (EUR 3,174) and
Greece (EUR 3,138) have some of the highest levels of outstandings per capita in the world.
Consumer credit outstandings per capita in 2010 (in EUR):
Canada 10,157
Japan 5,973
United States 5,886
Australia 4,614
UK 3,998
South Korea 3,135
Germany 2,801
France 2,410
Spain 1,956
Italy 1,893
Brazil 865
Turkey 720
Russia 497
Indonesia 235
Sources: central banks, Asterès
China 158
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13. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Top 15: outstandings per capita vs total consumer credit outstandings
The largest markets do not necessarily have the highest levels of outstandings per capita. For example:
Canada, where total consumer credit outstandings amount to EUR 343 billion (i.e. 6% of global outstandings), only ranks 3rd in
terms of total outstandings but 1st in terms of outstandings per capita.
China ranks 6th in terms of total outstandings yet is last in the list when it comes to outstandings per capita.
Rank Outstandings (in EUR millions) Rank Outstandings per capita (in EUR)
1 United States 1,815 1 Canada 10,157
2 Japan 763 2 Japan 5,973
3 Canada 343 3 United States 5,886
4 UK 249 4 Australia 4,614
5 Germany 229 5 UK 3,998
6 China 209 6 South Korea 3,135
7 Brazil 172 7 Germany 2,801
8 France 152 8 France 2,410
9 South Korea 152 9 Spain 1,956
10 Italy 114 10 Italy 1,893
11 Australia 98 11 Brazil 865
12 Spain 90 12 Turkey 720
13 Russia 69 13 Russia 497
14 Indonesia 57 14 Indonesia 235
15 Turkey 56 15 China 158
Page 13 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
14. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Focus on: North America, the world's largest market
Breakdown of outstandings by region
North America is by far the world's largest consumer credit market. Total Oceania
outstandings in the region stood at EUR 2,190 billion at end-2010, representing 2% Africa
40% of global outstandings. Latin America 2%
4%
Average outstandings per capita are the highest in the world (EUR 4,819). The
two main markets (the US and Canada) are notable for their strong consumer North
credit penetration rates, the result of a very high level of consumer spending per Europe America
24% 40%
capita as well as of the highly competitive and extensive credit market.
1st: United States EUR 1,815 billion in outstandings at end-2010
i.e. 33% of global outstandings and 82.9% of
Asia & the
outstandings in North America Middle East
EUR 5,885 per capita 28%
2nd: Canada EUR 343 billion in outstandings at end-2010
i.e. 6% of global outstandings and 15.7% of Breakdown of outstandings by
outstandings in North America country in North America
Mexico
EUR 10,157 per capita 2%
Canada
16%
3rd: Mexico EUR 33 billion in outstandings at end-2010
i.e. 0.6% of global outstandings and 1.5% of
outstandings in North America
EUR 290 per capita
United States
82%
Page 14 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
15. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Focus on: Asia and the Middle East, the world's second-largest market
Breakdown of outstandings by region
Asia and the Middle East combined represent the second-largest consumer credit
market in the world. Outstandings in the region stood at EUR 1,540 billion at end- Oceania
2% Africa
2010, i.e. 28% of global outstandings. Latin America 2%
The region is dominated by Japan, the second-largest market in the world, and 4%
China. The Chinese market is notable for its strong growth in outstandings (more
than 50% in 2010). It is now the sixth-largest market in the world, ranking above North
Europe
France. America
24%
40%
In terms of credit, this region is very diverse, with large developed markets (Japan,
South Korea, Singapore) and high-growth emerging markets (China, Thailand,
Indonesia, India).
1st: Japan EUR 763 billion in outstandings at end-2010 Asia & the
Middle East
i.e. 13.9% of global outstandings and 50% of 28%
outstandings in Asia & the Middle East
EUR 5,973 per capita
Breakdown of outstandings by
2nd: China EUR 209 billion in outstandings at end-2010 country in Asia and the Middle East
i.e. 3.8% of global outstandings and 14% of
outstandings in Asia & the Middle East Other
26%
EUR 158 per capita
Japan
50%
3rd: South Korea EUR 152 billion in outstandings at end-2010
i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 10% of South Korea
outstandings in Asia & the Middle East 10%
EUR 3,135 per capita
China
14%
Page 15 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
16. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Focus on: Europe, the world's third-largest market
Breakdown of outstandings by region
The European consumer credit market represented outstandings of EUR 1,310 Oceania
billion at end-2010, i.e. 24% of global outstandings (losing speed compared 2% Africa
with Asia and the Middle East). Latin America 2%
4%
Outstandings per capita (EUR 1,667) are modest in view of the level of
development in most of the region's economies.
Europe North
The 27 EU member states (EUR 1,105 billion) account for 85% of the market. America
24%
40%
1st: UK EUR 249 billion in outstandings at end-2010*
i.e. 4.5% of global outstandings and 22% of
outstandings in Europe Asia & the
Middle East
EUR 3,998 per capita 28%
2nd: Germany EUR 229 billion in outstandings at end-2010
i.e. 4.2% of global outstandings and 21% of Breakdown of outstandings by
outstandings in Europe country in Europe
EUR 2,801 per capita UK
22%
3rd: France EUR 152 billion in outstandings at end-2010
Other
i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 12% of 45%
outstandings in Europe Germany
21%
EUR 2,410 per capita
* The variation compared with the previous report is primarily due to changes in the exchange rate.
** The data were updated on the basis of outstandings published by the Banque de France and reprocessed using estimated
data for France's overseas départements, i.e. EUR 151.7 billion in outstandings at end-2010 France
12%
Page 16 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
17. Global consumer credit at end-2010
Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance
Europe's leader in consumer credit
With EUR 78.1 billion in consumer credit outstandings under management at end-2010, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance is the leading player on
Europe's consumer credit market.
Via its subsidiaries, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance operates in 19 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) as well as in
Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China.
At end-2010, two-thirds of its outstandings under management were generated by international activities.
Sofinco is a French brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance.
Page 17 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
18. Contact : Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance
DPCI
H.0.2. - rue du Bois Sauvage - 91038 Evry cedex (France)
Tél. : 33 (0)1 60 76 88 17
E-mail : presse@ca-cf.fr
All Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance ‘s studies are available from www.ca-consumerfinance.com,
Section Consumer Credit Overview
Page 18 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010