Sector Days Agriculture 2016 BTC, Belgium Development Agency

1. Climate Smart Agriculture
An introduction
Bruno Verbist
Brussel, 22 November 2016
www.kuleuven.be/klimos

2. Overview
 Climate change & impacts
 Mitigation & Adaptation
 Climate Smart Agriculture
 Some tools
2

3. AR5WGI SPM
Change in average surface temperature 1901-
2012Warming in the climate system is
unequivocal
3

4. AR5WGI SPM
Changes in annual precipitation
4

5. AR5WGI SPM
AR5 WGI Regional Atlas
• > 70 pages of maps: temperature and precipitation changes
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_
AnnexI_FINAL.pdf
5

6. Spatial downscaling
http://ccafs-
climate.org/
data_spatial
_downscalin
g/

7. Total global emissions
Total global emissions: 41.9 ± 2.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 49% over 1990
Percentage land-use change: 36% in 1960, 9% averaged 2006-2015
Three different methods have been used to estimate
land-use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of grey
Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016

8. Historical cumulative emissions by source
Land-use change represents about 26% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2015,
coal 35%, oil 26%, gas 10%, and others 3%
Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring
Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016

9. 31%
11.6 GtCO2/yr
Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2006-2015)
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
26%
9.7 GtCO2/yr
34.1 GtCO2/yr
91%
9%
3.5 GtCO2/yr
16.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
Sources = Sinks

10. Mitigation and adaptation
Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or
expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit
beneficial opportunities.
Source: UNDP

11. Example: The potential impacts of climate change on
maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055
Jones & Thornton, 2003

12. Vulnerability (outcome)
Source: adapted from O’Brien et al. 2007

13. Vulnerability (contextual)
Source: adapted from O’Brien et al. 2007

14. ”Climate-smart landscapes operate on
the principles of integrated landscape
management, while explicitly
incorporating adaptation and mitigation
into their management objectives”
(CGIAR)

15. KEY FEATURES OF CLIMATE-SMART (AGRICULTURAL) LANDSCAPES
(Scherr et al. 2012)
- Climate-smart practices at field and farm level
- Minimum tillage
- Water management
- Nutrient management
- Agroforestry
- Livestock management
- Diversity of land use across the landscape
- To reduce risk
- To provide strategic reserves
- To sustain perennial habitat as carbon stocks
- Management of land use interactions at landscape scale
- Spatial arrangement to enhance field-level benefits
- Secure ecosystem functions
- Forest-farming interactions to maximize mitigation efforts

16. Example 1 Agroforestry: Potential for mitigation,
adaptation & development Akinnifesi et al. 2010.
Treatment
Unfertilized Maize 1.1 (36.5) 1.1 (61.7) 1.4 (65.6)
Fertilized Maize 3.1 (27.9) 4.3 (32.2) 2.3 (36.9)
Gliricidia without fertilizer 3.9 (27.1) 3.1 (38.4) 2.6 (21.7)
Gliricidia + 50% fertilizer 4.9 (24.8) NA 3.2 (11.7)
Table 1. Average yield values (t ha-1 yr-1)* and coefficients of variation (c.v. %) in
parentheses for different nutrient management treatments at 3 sites in SSA.
*Means were based on n = 13 years for Malawi, 12 years for Zambia, and 12 years for Nigeria NA = not available
Yield stability analysis shows strong fertilizing AND stabilizing effects of agroforestry trees
BONUS BONUS
INSURANCE

17. Jambi, Sumatra,
Indonesia
Rubber seedlings can be
transplanted into gaps
in existing agroforests
“Sisipan”
Rubber agroforests:
- 70-90% of species of natural forest
- > 3 million ha
- > 2 billion USD/yr for rubber alone

18. Clonal planting material successfully established with limited
weeding in a system post slash & burn (CIRAD & ICRAF)

19. Carbon vs. Profitability
Adapted from Gockowski et al., 2001)

20. Example 2:Improving adaptation of cattle to climate change
through introduction of genes obtained from drought and heat
tolerant cattle in Ethiopia
AMCEN, 2011: Addressing Climate Change Challenges in Africa; A Practical Guide
Towards Sustainable development

21. Example 3 Biogas: Potential for mitigation,
adaptation & development
The biogas technology is a proven and established technology in many parts
of the world, especially Asia. Several countries in this region have embarked
on large-scale programmes on domestic biogas, such as China (about 30.5
million household digesters by December 2008), India (about 4.1 million by
March 2009), Nepal (about 220,000 plants by mid-2009) and Vietnam .
In Africa, large-scale programmes started since 2009: a technical potential of about
18.5 million households*.
*Felix ter Heegde and Kai Sonder, October
2006: Domestic Biogas in Africa, a first
assessment of the potential and need.
Rwanda filmpje Biogas is brilliant filmpje

22. Need for
climate
proofing of
interventions
Underlying framework
of different MRV –
tools (Climate-smart
Agriculture Handbook,
FAO, 2013)

23. (CLIMATE) SMART LANDSCAPES ASK FOR :
- application of “standard” sustainability principles in land
use planning and land management
- a double-scale approach (in place and in time)
- enhancing overall resilience at “standard” scale
plus
- making robust structures against extremes

24. Some available tools
1. Climate proofing: KLIMOS Toolkit:
2. ICRAF’s Land degradation Surveillance
Framework (LDSF) (baseline data)
3. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security baseline (CCAFS)
4. MOSAICC – A modelling system for
assessing the impact of climate change
on agriculture
5. Greenchoice monitoring and evaluation
framework (South Africa)
6. EX-ACT (Ex-Ante Carbon Balance Tool)

26. Conclusion
• CSA technologies/areas have clear benefits for
development, mitigation and adaptation: Need
for implementation, exploration and removal of
bottlenecks
• Various approaches needed in different conditions
• Need for sustainability assessments and M&E…
• …. potential role for universities, colleges, … in N
& S to carry out part of the agenda e.g. baseline
studies, applied research

27. Thanks for your attention
Questions?
27
www.kuleuven.be/klimos
bruno.Verbist@ees.kuleuven.be

28. Recommended websites:
About CSA:
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/
http://ecoagriculture.org/
http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3325e/i3325e.pdf
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/
http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/
The resilience alliance: http://www.resalliance.org

29. Assessment, M&E for CSA within a project cycle and broader policies and
programmes

30. Carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes (Gt and Gt/year)
Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features (2011)