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Social Media: Behind the Scenes

2013 week 10
Online Crowds
Fundamentals
context
fundamental structure of society

evolution
sociology
economics
marketing
politics
Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911)
statistical correlation

questionnaires

surveys

statistician
meteorology
forensic
eugenics

Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911)
?
!

?
x 787
1,197 pounds

1,198 pounds
Ask a friend

65%
Ask the audience

91%
January 28, 1986
Builds the shuttle’s fuel tank

Builds the shuttle

Fuel and components
Manages ground support
-3%
-6%
-6%
-5%
20min
-3%
-3%
-12%
-3%
end of day
months
later
James Surowiecki
The Wisdom
of Crowds
Why the Many
Are Smarter Than the Few
and How Collective Wisdom
Shapes Business, Economies,
Societies and Nations.

James Surowiecki
Wisdoms
Coordination
Cooperation
Cognition
Types of crowd wisdom

Coordination
Types of crowd wisdom

Coordination
Types of crowd wisdom

How groups of people can form
networks of trust without a central system

Cooperation
Types of crowd wisdom

Thinking and information Processing

Cognition
on
aN
Qu
ine
S

om
isd
dW
ow
Cr
Diversity
Diversity
Each person should have
private information even
if it's just an eccentric
interpretation of the
known facts.
Decentralization
Decentralization
People are able to specialize
and draw on local knowledge.
Aggregation
Some mechanism exists for
turning private judgments
into a collective decision.

Aggregation
Independance
Independance

People's opinions aren't
determined by the opinions
of those around them.
om
isd
dW
row
C
RE
ILU
FA
Homogeneity
Homogeneity

Groupthink
Homogeneity

Groupthink
a psychological phenomenon that occurs
within a group of people, in which the desire
for harmony or conformity results in
an incorrect decision-making outcome.
Homogeneity

Groupthink
Leads to loss of individual creativity,
uniqueness and independent thinking.
Produces an "illusion of invulnerability"
and significantly overrates the the group’s
abilities in decision-making,
and significantly underrates the abilities
of their opponents
Homogeneity

Groupthink
Pearl Harbor
Homogeneity

Groupthink
Homogeneity
Blinder effect
Homogeneity
People tend to only hear the voices
of people they agree with and create
feedback loops reinforcing homogenity
within a group

Silo effect
Right
Left
Technology
Finance

Marketing
Information cascade
An information cascade occurs
when people observe the actions
of others and then make
the same choice, independently
of their own private informations.
Information cascade
Conditions of occurence
•
•
•
•

Decisions are made sequentially
Decisions are made rationally based on
the information available to each actor
Each node do not have access to the
information of other nodes
Action space is limited (yes/no/like/...)
Information cascade
Aggravating Factors
•
•
•

Low Weak link/Strong link ratio
Homogeneity of information sources
Homogeneity of position within network
Bandwagon effect
People doing certain things because other
people are doing it, regardless of their own
beliefs, which they may ignore or override.
The perceived "popularity" of something
may have an effect on how it is viewed.
Bandwagon effect

Buzz
Centralization
Division
herd instinct
collective hysteria
peer pressure

Emotionality
Sc po some-10-crowds

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