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2. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Overview
2
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
Commentary by Michael McDonough, Bloomberg Economist
Recovery in Developed Markets to Dominate in 2014
Abenomics, stability in the euro zone
and a potentially lasting U.S. economic
recovery have renewed investors’ euphoria in the developed world, albeit at the
expense of emerging markets.
Emerging market equities are experiencing their longest streak of underperformance against their G-7 counterparts
since the mid to late 1990s on an annual basis, as measured by their MSCI
indexes. The MSCI G-7 equity index
finished 2013 up about 25 percent year on
year as the MSCI emerging market index
fell 5 percent. That’s the largest spread
since April 1999.
While Abenomics likely will face longterm challenges in 2014, the first two arrows of Japan’s stimulus program — fiscal
stimulus and monetary easing — have
already been implemented and should
continue to contribute to Japanese growth
and a weaker yen. In Europe, while many
challenges remain, a period of stability appears likely to persist, with at least
modest growth ahead for many euro zone
countries in 2014. In the U.S., a period
of rapid productivity growth and slow
hiring after the financial crisis has likely
stretched companies’ current labor forces
as far as they can be stretched. Accelerated hiring as growth continues to pick up is
the probable result, helping to reinforce a
positive feedback loop. In fact, in the U.S.,
most year-end data came in well above
economists’ forecasts {ECSU<GO>}.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke may have signaled the death
knell for many emerging markets on May
22 when he first indicated that Fed tapering of its asset purchase program was in
the offing. Following this announcement,
the U.S. 10-year curve steepened substantially with long-end rates rising. The
U.S. 10-year yield, which hit its one-year
low of 1.6255 percent on May 2, was just
shy of 3 percent immediately prior to the
Fed’s September meeting, at which the
FOMC unexpectedly delayed its decision
to taper.
Emerging Market Growth Prospects Dwindling
0.2
G10
Europe
Asia
EMEA
LATAM
World
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
Jan-13
* Bernanke Indicates Tapering
Mar-13
Source: Bloomberg
May-13
Jul-13
This period of rising U.S. rates led to
a sharp deterioration of international
financial conditions. Riskier emerging
markets saw substantial capital outflows,
especially from countries with high current
account deficits that are dependent on
foreign capital for growth {WFII<GO>}.
Countries in this category that saw
substantial currency depreciation include
India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey. At the
same time, stocks rallied and economic
prospects held steady or improved in
the developed markets, as measured by
Bloomberg’s consensus 2014 real GDP
forecasts {ECFC<GO>}.
In contrast, emerging markets stocks
sank as growth prospects dwindled. The
largest decline occurred in Latin America,
where the 2014 GDP growth consensus
stood at 2.89 percent as of Jan. 7, down
from 4 percent a year earlier. Developed
Europe, which experienced the largest
improvement, may grow 1.41 percent in
2014, up from 1.33 percent a year ago.
Though the U.S.’s 2014 growth forecast
Follow MICHAEL MCDONOUGH on Twitter
FOr rEGULAr UpDATEs AND ADDITIONAL INsIGHTs
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
has fallen modestly to 2.6 percent from
2.8 percent at the start of the year, U.S.
GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 3
percent quarter-on-quarter SAAR by the
fourth quarter of 2014 from a 2.6 percent
forecast for the first quarter. Global growth
is anticipated to total 2.85 percent in 2014.
The FOMC’s eventual move on Dec. 18
to begin the process of tapering outlined
by Bernanke in May is likely the starting
point for a longer-term trend of U.S. interest rate normalization. Over the past 20
years, the U.S. 10-year yield has averaged
more than 4.5 percent, well above the current level just south of 3 percent.
While Janet Yellen, who takes over
the Fed on Feb. 1, probably will aim to
increase rates gradually and without causing trauma to markets, international financial conditions may continue to weaken,
weighing on overall emerging market
growth. At the same time, developed markets are likely to continue to benefit from
strengthening economies.
@m_mcdonough
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

3. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
3
GR WTH
It’s what the CGMA designation stands for
®
Officially, it’s Chartered Global Management Accountant . Established
by AICPA and CIMA, two of the world’s most prestigious accounting
bodies, the CGMA designation represents accomplished
professionals who drive and deliver business success, worldwide.
®
14602-312
Find out more at cgma.org
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

4. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
4
2014 CALENDAR
Jan. 14-15: Egyptians
vote on a new
constitution
Jan.
Feb. 1: Janet
Yellen’s first day
as Fed chair
Feb.
Jan. 22 Syrian
warring parties
summit set to
begin
Mar.
Feb. 2: Thai
general elections
May 22-25:
European
Parliament
elections
April 11:
IMF spring
April 5:
meeting
Afghanistan
national elections starts
April: South
African national
elections are
due in the next
three months
March 19: Yellen’s
first post-FOMC
meeting press
conference
Feb. 7: The Sochi
Olympics will begin
after several
terrorist acts
nearby
Apr.
March: China’s National
People’s Congress will set
economic priorities for the
year, including the budget
and growth target
June
4-5 G-8
leaders
in Sochi
By May 31:
India general
elections
June 30: The
biggest U.S. banks
are scheduled to
begin Volcker Rule
reporting
Jun.
May
April 9: Indonesia
parliamentary
elections
May 25:
Belgian
federal
elections
End of May: Six
months of talks with
Iran over nuclear
weapons conclude
April 1: Japan
raises its
consumption tax
July 9: Indonesia
presidential elections
July
June 12:
World Cup
starts in Brazil
July: Yellen delivers
monetary outlook to
Congress
Quote of 2013
If
see continued improvement, and
“thatwe going to be sustained, in the next we have confidence that
is
few meetings we could
take a step down in our pace of purchases.
”
— Ben Bernanke, in May 22 testimony prepared for a hearing at the Joint Economic
Committee of Congress in Washington.
Sept. 14
Sweden
general
elections
SEP.
Brazilian President
Dilma Rousseff
Oct. 5: Brazil
general elections
Oct.
Sept. 18 Scotland
referendum on
independence
November:
ECB takes over
supervision of euro
area’s largest banks
Nov. 15-16: G-20
leaders’ summit
Nov.
Oct. 10-12: IMF/
World Bank annual
meetings
DEc.
Nov. 4: U.S. midterm elections
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

5. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
5
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
consensus forecasts {ECFC <GO>}
Bloomberg News
Click here to view as charts
COUNTRY
YoY% Unless
Otherwise Specified
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
1.8%
1.5%
-0.6%
1.1%
2.5%
2.8%
-0.6%
2.0%
0.2%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.4%
1.8%
1.4%
1.7%
2.6%
1.0%
1.6%
2.4%
2.3%
3.0%
1.4%
1.2%
2.4%
2.5%
3.1%
2.7%
-0.3%
4.5%
2.9%
2.1%
2.5%
0.0%
2.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
0.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1.7%
1.2%
2.4%
2.2%
1.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.8%
2.2%
1.9%
8.9%
10.2%
4.6%
8.0%
7.5%
8.1%
11.4%
4.4%
8.0%
7.3%
7.4%
12.1%
4.0%
7.7%
7.1%
6.8%
12.1%
3.9%
7.3%
6.8%
6.2%
11.8%
3.8%
7.0%
6.6%
3.4%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.9%
-7.1%
2.2%
-1.3%
0.9%
0.0%
-2.4%
-1.6%
-1.2%
-6.4%
0.2%
-3.2%
0.5%
0.2%
-1.8%
-1.3%
-1.1%
-3.9%
0.0%
-1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.0%
1.9%
0.5%
1.9%
1.3%
0.9%
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.2%
1.0%
2.5%
2.3%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
3.3%
1.2%
3.6%
2.1%
2.2%
3.3%
2.4%
2.8%
1.5%
1.9%
2.8%
1.6%
1.0%
1.3%
1.5%
2.7%
-0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
1.5%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
1.9%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
1.5%
0.3%
1.3%
1.0%
6.8%
9.6%
8.4%
21.7%
5.8%
17.7%
14.6%
12.7%
6.9%
10.3%
10.7%
25.0%
6.6%
24.2%
14.7%
15.7%
6.9%
10.9%
12.2%
26.5%
8.4%
27.6%
13.6%
16.6%
6.8%
11.0%
12.4%
26.2%
9.1%
28.2%
12.7%
16.4%
6.6%
10.8%
12.1%
25.5%
–
27.8%
11.9%
16.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
1.9%
2.1%
2.4%
2.3%
2.1%
2.6%
2.4%
0.2%
3.0%
1.3%
-0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.1%
2.2%
0.5%
1.3%
2.0%
0.9%
2.0%
2.1%
2.8%
7.8%
3.3%
2.9%
8.0%
3.2%
3.2%
8.1%
3.5%
3.1%
7.9%
3.6%
3.0%
7.6%
3.9%
3.4%
1.9%
-1.2%
0.7%
-1.7%
0.2%
1.5%
1.4%
-1.3%
2.5%
0.7%
-1.0%
2.4%
2.9%
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
1.5%
2.7%
3.4%
2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
8.4%
4.3%
1.9%
5.8%
3.9%
8.0%
5.1%
3.7%
3.3%
3.3%
5.7%
0.6%
6.7%
1.0%
1.4%
4.1%
1.8%
-0.3%
5.4%
2.0%
1.3%
2.3%
2.2%
3.0%
5.0%
2.5%
2.0%
3.2%
3.0%
5.4%
6.5%
9.6%
6.7%
5.1%
10.9%
7.9%
6.0%
10.1%
7.0%
5.6%
10.9%
7.5%
5.5%
13.6%
7.7%
5.3%
10.5%
7.5%
5.7%
13.4%
7.4%
5.2%
10.3%
7.3%
5.6%
12.8%
7.2%
4.9%
10.1%
7.3%
3.5%
4.6%
8.6%
2.5%
3.4%
5.1%
2.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2.8%
3.4%
4.4%
3.3%
3.5%
4.0%
5.0%
3.5%
3.7%
5.7%
1.7%
2.9%
5.8%
1.6%
3.7%
5.6%
1.8%
3.5%
5.5%
2.1%
3.8%
24.9%
7.1%
–
25.1%
6.9%
–
25.0%
6.5%
10.0%
25.0%
6.8%
9.5%
24.6%
6.8%
7.0%
9.3%
6.3%
3.7%
6.5%
2.4%
4.1%
0.1%
7.7%
3.2%
2.0%
6.2%
3.7%
1.3%
6.5%
7.6%
5.0%
2.7%
5.7%
2.4%
2.0%
3.3%
7.5%
4.8%
3.5%
5.4%
2.7%
3.5%
4.5%
7.2%
5.5%
3.6%
6.0%
3.0%
3.8%
4.6%
5.4%
8.4%
4.0%
5.4%
3.3%
1.4%
3.8%
2.7%
10.4%
2.2%
4.3%
1.8%
1.9%
3.0%
2.7%
6.1%
1.2%
7.0%
2.4%
1.0%
2.2%
3.1%
9.2%
2.3%
6.5%
2.6%
1.5%
2.6%
3.2%
8.0%
2.8%
5.4%
2.5%
1.6%
2.7%
4.1%
–
3.4%
6.6%
5.1%
4.4%
0.7%
4.1%
–
3.2%
6.1%
5.2%
4.2%
0.7%
4.1%
–
3.2%
6.4%
5.7%
4.2%
0.8%
4.1%
–
3.2%
5.9%
5.9%
4.1%
0.7%
4.1%
–
3.1%
5.8%
5.8%
4.0%
0.8%
4.0%
2.7%
8.9%
6.6%
4.2%
5.8%
3.6%
0.9%
1.9%
4.0%
5.6%
5.6%
1.3%
2.3%
3.0%
4.0%
1.3%
4.3%
3.5%
2.3%
2.3%
4.5%
0.8%
4.2%
3.9%
2.8%
2.6%
4.7%
1.5%
4.5%
3.4%
6.6%
9.8%
3.4%
26.1%
3.3%
4.1%
5.4%
10.0%
3.2%
21.1%
3.0%
3.7%
6.1%
10.6%
2.2%
39.1%
1.8%
3.7%
5.8%
12.2%
2.9%
51.2%
2.8%
3.6%
5.6%
14.9%
3.0%
45.1%
3.0%
5.2%
6.0%
7.2%
10.8%
8.2%
7.1%
5.0%
5.5%
7.2%
10.4%
7.8%
6.4%
5.0%
5.5%
7.5%
9.9%
7.9%
6.0%
4.9%
5.9%
7.9%
9.6%
8.2%
6.6%
4.7%
6.0%
7.9%
9.5%
7.9%
6.8%
G-5 Countries
United States*
Eurozone
Japan*
United Kingdom
Canada*
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Other Developed Europe
Switzerland
Sweden
Norway
1.8%
2.9%
1.3%
Eastern Europe and CIS
Russia
Poland
Czech Republic
Romania
Hungary
Ukraine
4.3%
4.5%
1.8%
2.2%
1.6%
5.2%
Africa and Middle East
South Africa
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Asia Pacific
China
India
South Korea
Indonesia
Australia
Taiwan
Thailand
Latin America
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Venezuela
Chile
Source: Bloomberg
As of 12.31.2013
*GDP forecasts are SAAR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

6. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
6
Best Overall Forecaster Rankings of 2013
BEST OVERALL FORECASTERS OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Q4 2013
Rank
Forecaster
Firm
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Christophe Barraud
Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz
Thomas Lam
Jim O’Sullivan
Nariman Behravesh
Joshua Shapiro
Russell Price
Michael Feroli
Lou Crandall/Bill Jordan
Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein
Market Securities
Commerzbank
OSK-DMG
High Frequency Economics
IHS
Maria Fiorini Ramirez
Ameriprise Financial
JPMorgan Chase
Wrightson ICAP
First Trust Portfolios
Overall
Score
62.19
59.28
58.50
58.03
57.72
57.48
56.68
56.50
56.16
56.11
BEST OVERALL FORECASTERS
OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY Q4 2013
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
Forecaster
Song Yu
Nie Wen
Yao Wei
Mark Williams
Qu Hongbin
Chang Jian
Firm
Goldman Sachs
Huabao Trust
Societe Generale
Capital Economics
HSBC
Barclays
Overall Score
65.33
60.50
59.83
57.85
56.97
56.28
BEST OVERALL FORECASTERS
OF THE EURO-ZONE ECONOMY Q4 2013
Rank
1
2
3
4
Forecaster
Andreas Scheuerle/Peter Leonhardt
Daniel Hartmann
Janet Henry
Francesca Panelli*
Firm
DekaBank
Bantleon Bank
HSBC Bank
Banca Aletti
Overall Score
65.38
65.36
62.03
61.92
Top-Ranked U.S. Forecaster
Christophe Barraud,
Market Securities
2014 Outlook
“I expect that growth
will accelerate in 2014
and reach at least 3
percent, the fastest
growth in five years.
Federal budgetary
policy will be accommodative next year including a 2.4
percent increase in discretionary spending over 2013, which was impacted by a
strong reduction (minus 5.3 percent). At
the same time, state and local government spending will no longer be a drag
as state finances significantly improved
in 2013.
Private investments should be positively oriented. I expect fiscal uncertainties will be reduced so companies can
increase CAPEX.
The pace of nonfarm payrolls will rise
next year, helping boost incomes. According to the CBO, the level of mandatory
spending (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security) will be higher and should support
households’ budget.
Higher home prices will result in higher
expenditures due to the wealth effect and
household balance sheets are in much
better shape after deleveraging.”
*Senior Economist
METHODOLOGY
We identified the best overall forecasters by using
estimates from the Bloomberg ECO survey for key
economic indicators in the United States, euro zone
and China.
The U.S. ranking was based on 15 indicators: GDP,
consumer price index, durable goods orders, existing
home sales, housing starts, industrial production,
the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing
index and nonmanufacturing index, new home sales,
nonfarm payrolls, personal income, personal spending, producer price index, retail sales and unemployment. We averaged the scores of the 68 forecasters
who qualified for a ranking in at least 9 indicators.
The ranking shows the top 10 forecasters.
The euro-zone ranking included 11 indicators:
GDP, consumer confidence, consumer price index,
economic sentiment, industrial confidence, industrial
production, Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI,
Markit Eurozone Services PMI, M3 money supply,
producer price index and unemployment. We averaged the scores of the 22 forecasters who qualified for
a ranking in at least 7 indicators. The ranking shows
the top 20 percent of that group.
The Chinese ranking included 11 indicators: GDP,
consumer price index, exports, imports, fixed assets
investment, industrial production, money supply, producer price index, manufacturing PMI, retail sales and
international trade balance. We averaged the scores
of the 30 forecasters who qualified for a ranking in
at least 7 indicators. The ranking shows the top 20
percent of that group.
The latest two years of data reported by Jan. 1 were
used. To qualify for a ranking on a monthly indicator,
forecasters had to have made estimates for at least 15
of the 24 months and two consecutive forecasts within
the last six periods. For quarterly indicators, forecasters had to have made at least five calls and two
consecutive estimates within the last eight periods.
Forecasters who didn’t provide any estimates in the
latest three forecasting periods were excluded.
The forecasts and actual reported numbers were
compared, and individuals received a score of zero to
100 based on the accuracy of their historical forecasts
for each indicator. Economists with fewer forecast
errors relative to other forecasters received higher
scores. The scores received for each indicator were
averaged to determine each forecaster’s rank in a
country or region.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

7. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
7
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
U.S. economic Outlook
Commentary by joseph brusuelas, Bloomberg Economist
U.S. Growth Hinges on Easing of Federal Fiscal Restraint, Corporate Reactions to Growth
The outlook for U.S. growth in 2014
depends to a degree on the actions of
politicians and corporations. The easing of
federal fiscal restraint would help growth,
as would an increase in government
spending at the state and local levels.
On the corporate side, whether firms
choose to increase spending and investment ahead of any perceived economic
acceleration will also be important.
The debt ceiling debate, which will have
to be resolved by mid-February, may roil
Employment Conditions: Slow and Steady
Credit Creation Supportive of Nominal GDP
17%
Private Payrolls
6 Month Moving Average
2007
2008
Source: Bloomberg
2009
3 Month Moving Average
12 Month Moving Average
2010
2011
2012
Year-Over-Year Percentage Change
15%
Thousands
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-900
-1000
financial markets and affect consumer
and business confidence. A positive resolution would probably result in a modest
acceleration in overall growth.
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
-1%
-3%
-5%
1963
2013
Adjusted R2=.64
13%
Nominal GDP
1968
1973
Total Credit Creation Private Financial Instiutions
1978
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Employment conditions may brighten this year if job growth shows continued monthly gains in the 175,000-to-225,000 range. The unemployment
rate will probably continue to drift down toward 6.5 percent by the end of
2014. The loss of public sector jobs appears to have ended, with state and
local government employment likely to see a modest boost next year.
Private credit creation ended the year at a pace well above that of nominal
GDP, to which it is highly correlated. This should support an increase in
demand for credit, which may signal the end of overall household deleveraging. The key question: Will an increase in credit remain the province of
upper income households or will it finally flow down the income ladder?
Interest Rates May Face Upward Pressure
Fixed Business Investment Key for 2014 Growth
4.5
QE 1
QE 2
4.0
60
QE 3
Percentage
3.0
2.5
50
0
45
-20
40
-40
2.0
35
-60
1.5
Long Run Asset Purchase Programs
2009
2010
-80
U.S. 10-Year Yield
2011
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve took a calculated risk by announcing its intention to
slow the pace of its asset purchases. While growth this year appears poised
to improve, it is unclear if the quality is sufficient to absorb an increase
in long-term yields to between 3.25 and 3.5 percent as indicated by the
Bloomberg consensus forecast.
Index
Percentage
55
20
3.5
1.0
2008
60
40
Op Twist
1&2
30
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Net % of Dom Resp Reporting Stronger Demand for CRE Loans(LHS)
U.S Architecture Firms Work-On-The-Boards Billings Index(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
This year will provide an acid test for firms’ confidence in the duration
and sustainability of the expansion. Many companies remain reluctant to
increase capital expenditures due to weak demand for services. The difference between trend growth and a sustained period of above-trend growth
will revolve around the pace of fixed business investment.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

8. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Europe Outlook
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
8
Commentary by David Powell, Bloomberg Economist
Weak Euro-Area Inflation Likely to Prompt Additional Monetary Easing From ECB
Inflationary pressures in the euro area
are likely to remain weak this year. That
development sets the stage for additional
monetary easing.
The European Central Bank is failing to
meet its target. The consumer price index
increased 0.8 percent year over year in
December. The core reading was 0.7
percent. The monetary authority “aims to
maintain inflation rates below, but close to,
2 percent over the medium term.”
A deceleration of inflation is likely to
continue next year. High unemployment
and weak credit growth will probably limit
price increases.
The level of unemployment points to slack
in the economy. The November reading of
12.1 percent was just below the record 12.2
percent set in September. The Organisation
for Economic Cooperation & Development
estimates the non-accelerating inflation rate
of unemployment to be 10.2 percent.
Lending data also give reason for concern. Loans to non-financial corporations,
adjusted for sales and securitization, fell
3.1 percent year over year in November
after a 3 percent decline in October. The
equivalent figure for households stood at
0.3 percent year over year, unchanged
from the previous month.
Quantitative easing may ultimately be
the most attractive option to the ECB.
Others include: 1) a reduction of the main
policy rate; 2) a negative deposit rate;
3) additional lending programs such as
another three-year longer-term refinancing
operation; 4) more forward guidance; 5)
currency intervention.
The purchase of privately-held assets by
the central bank would be the most effective way to lower targeted interest rates.
The ECB could use its balance sheet to
reduce borrowing costs wherever the Governing Council feels the “monetary policy
transmission mechanism” is still “broken.”
Wide disparities in corporate borrowing
costs remain throughout the monetary
union. For example, the interest rate on new
loans with maturities of more than five years
ECB Fails to Meet Inflation Target
5
4
3
2
1
Euro-Area Headline CPI (YoY, %)
Core CPI (YoY, %)
0
-1
12/1/02
ECB's Inflation Target (YoY, %)
5/1/04
10/1/05
3/1/07
8/1/08
1/1/10
6/1/11
11/1/12
Source: Bloomberg
ECCPEMUY Index <GO>; CPEXEMUY Index <GO>
(other than revolving loans and overdrafts,
convenience and extended credit card debt)
to non-financial corporations up to and
including 1 million euros in Italy was 5.66
percent in October, according to data from
the ECB. The equivalent figure for Germany
was 2.95 percent. Those rates would probably apply more to small- and medium-sized
companies than large corporates.
A reduction of the main policy rate may
still be an intermediate step. It would be
mostly symbolic. It is already close to
the zero bound at a historic low of 25
basis points.
The introduction of a negative deposit
rate seems unlikely. The ECB has rarely
— if ever — been willing to be at the cutting edge of experimental monetary policy.
No other major central bank has ever
pursued that policy.
Another three-year LTRO would probably
be insufficient in the face of weak demand.
The amount of funds borrowed by banks
under the longer-term refinancing operations has declined to 583 billion euros from
a high of 1.1 trillion euros in March 2012,
though the aggregate figure may hide additional demand from the peripheral countries.
Follow DAVID POWELL on Twitter
FOr rEguLAr uPDATEs AnD ADDITIOnAL InsIghTs
The lack of demand may discourage the
Governing Council from implementing a
“Funding for Lending Scheme.” The program introduced by the Bank of England
was similar to a four-year LTRO, though
borrowers were unable to buy securities
with the loans. A version for the euro area
seems unlikely to increase lending any
more than the three-year LTROs did.
The impact of additional forward guidance may be limited. The forward curve
analysis function {FWCV <GO>} on the
Bloomberg terminal indicates the EUR
OIS curve has priced in a one-month rate
of 20 basis points in one year. That is only
6 basis points lower than the reading on
the eve of the policy announcement from
the ECB.
Currency intervention appears unlikely.
Academic studies and history have shown
attempts by central banks to influence
the exchange rate normally fail unless
accompanied by a broadcast change in
monetary policy.
Quantitative easing is therefore likely
to be required and that would probably
weaken the euro without the ECB selling
the currency.
@davidjpowell24
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

9. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Asia Outlook
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
9
Commentary by Tamara Henderson and Tom Orlik, Bloomberg economists
Previous Fed Tightening Suggests Asian Resilience
The U.S. Congress’s two-year budget
deal and the Federal Reserve’s gentle
start to reducing its bond purchases
both removed key sources of market
anxiety and set up scope for a seasonal
rally in emerging Asia during the first
quarter of 2014.
Investors may find comfort that in the
previous Fed tightening cycle, average
growth in Asia held above 5 percent
and regional currencies rallied 5 percent against the U.S. dollar after they
recovered from initial wobbles. While the
external backdrop may have brightened,
many Asian economies will continue to
face internal headwinds in 2014. Speculation over China’s outlook may also hang
over the region.
China’s new leaders promised a
renewed commitment to reform, targeting sustained growth as the country’s
old economic model runs out of steam.
Policy changes aim to increase labor
force participation and to improve the
efficiency of investment. Leaders hope
these measures will be enough to secure
medium-term growth at about the current
7.5 percent level. Managing down runaway
lending, which has seen outstanding
credit rise to 200 percent of GDP, will be
difficult without denting growth. The government said controlling local-government
borrowing will be a key task for 2014, a
move that may damp infrastructure investment and demand for commodities. A
stronger recovery in global demand would
boost exports and give policy makers
more breathing space.
Japan’s headlong dash for growth in
2013 will change to a more complex
picture in 2014. A tighter fiscal stance
as the government faces down massive
public debt will act as a drag. As government reduces its spending, attention will
focus on Abenomics and whether the
policies have increased demand from
business investment and household
consumption. Early signs are positive;
stronger export growth has triggered
higher investment. Generous wage settlements in the first quarter of 2014 will
be critical to boosting consumption. The
Bank of Japan has the option to expand
stimulus if the tighter fiscal policy ap-
Asian Currencies Recovered From Initial Wobble
130
7
Fed Funds Target Rate →
125
←Asian Currencies Versus U.S. Dollar (ADXY)
120
6
5
115
4
110
3
105
2
100
1
95
90
1996
1999
Source: Bloomberg
0
2002
pears to take too much momentum out
of the economy. More aggressive easing
could see the yen extend its slide. The
Japanese currency will end 2014 at 110
to the dollar, according to the consensus
forecast, compared with around 105 at
the end of 2013.
Without dramatic improvements in exports or in investment, the Reserve Bank
of Australia may need to provide further
policy support for employment, confidence and growth via a weaker currency
or lower interest rates. Australia’s job market is at its weakest since 2009. Rate cuts
of 225 basis points since November 2011
have yet to bear fruit amid rebalancing in
China, its largest trading partner.
Singapore’s economy demonstrated resilience to Fed tapering jitters and China’s
rebalancing. Growth approached 6
percent year on year in the third quarter of
2013 with domestic demand supported by
low unemployment and rising real wages.
Viewed increasingly as a safe-haven,
the city-state’s financial sector achieved
remarkable double-digit gains in the first
nine months of 2013. In 2014, Singapore
will benefit as a recently-established offshore yuan center.
Investors will watch election outcomes
in India and Indonesia and look for
2005
2008
2011
signs of policy prudence during the new
governments’ respective tenures. Both
countries need a reversal in sentiment.
India in particular needs to break out of
its vicious circle of slower investment
and growth.
In the Philippines, the destructive
impact from Super Typhoon Haiyan on
growth (which will be slower) and inflation (which will be higher) should start
to fade by the second half of the year.
Government efforts to attract investment
in roads, railways and ports to lift the
country’s growth potential to as much
as 8 percent bore fruit in 2013. A powersharing arrangement with Muslim rebels
in Mindanao signals progress in tapping
the country’s mineral wealth, estimated to
be worth as much as four times the size
of the economy.
South Korea’s open economy will be
buffeted by shifts in global demand and
capital flows. In an optimistic scenario,
stronger global demand will boost exports
and the Fed will manage its tapering of
asset purchases without triggering destabilizing volatility. If stronger global demand
fails to materialize, high debt in Korea’s
households means domestic demand will
struggle to pick up the slack.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

10. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
CENTRAL BANK MONITOR
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
10
by Bloomberg Economists
Developed World Banks Still Have a Need for Unconventional Tools in 2014
As the Fed begins moving away from non-traditional monetary policy, Japan’s remains in full-swing and the European Central Bank may
soon enter the fray with the euro zone near the zero boundary. The expectation of rising rates in the U.S. may force some emerging market
central banks to prematurely increase interest rates to reduce the amount of capital flowing out of their countries. Brazil’s central bank been
one of the most aggressive tighteners over the past six months, increasing its target rate by 250 basis points due to a combination of rising
prices and capital outflows that followed May indications of an imminent taper from Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
High debt, not high inflation,
will be the main challenge
for China’s central bank in
2014. Outstanding credit has
ballooned from about 130
percent of GDP in 2008 to
close to 200 percent in 2013.
To bring that under control,
the People’s Bank of China
is pushing borrowing costs
higher. The central bank
is also shifting from use of
quantitative tools such as loan
quotas, to price tools such as
market-set interest rates, to
achieve its objectives.
The decline of core inflation
in the euro area to a record
low is likely to push the ECB
to reduce its main policy rate
again. The move would be
mostly symbolic. Quantitative easing may ultimately
be the most attractive option
for the central bank to lower
targeted interest rates such
as corporate borrowing costs
in the peripheral nations.
U.S. monetary policy is likely
to shift from a reliance on
asset purchases to forward
guidance as the primary policy tool. The major challenge
for the Fed will be to convince
investors that tapering is not
tightening, forward guidance
is more than just talk and
that it truly intends to hold the
policy rate at zero until 2016.
This year may feature a reduction in the unemployment
threshold to 6 percent and
the imposition of an inflation
floor of 1 percent.
Bloomberg Brief Global Central Bank Monitor
Policy Rate Ticker
BAIBPMOD Index
RBATCTR Index
BJIRONRR Index
BZSTSETA Index
BUBIRATE Index
CABROVER Index
CHOVCHOV Index
CHLR12M Index
CORRRMIN Index
CKDRRATE Index
CZARANN Index
DERE Index
EGBRLR Index
EURR002W Index
HKBASE Index
HBBRANN Index
ICBRANN Index
RSPOYLDP Index
IDBIRATE Index
ISBRANN Index
BOJDTR Index
JORRRATE Index
KIBODISC Index
LTRFANN Index
LREPRR Index
MAOPRATE Index
MXONBR Index
MOBRRC Index
NZOCR Index
NOBRDEPA Index
OCBOREPO Index
PAPRSBP Index
PRRRONUS Index
PPCBON Index
POREANN Index
QAIRRR Index
ROKEPOLA Index
RREFRANN Index
SRREPO Index
SIBCON Index
SARPRT Index
KORP7DR Index
SWRRATEI Index
SZLTTR Index
TAREDSC Index
BTRR1DAY Index
TUBR1WRA Index
CUAE1-7 Index
UKRBDIS Index
UKBRBASE Index
FDTR Index
VNBOLOAN Index
VNDIBASE Index
Source: Bloomberg
Country
Argentina
Australia
Bahrain
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Egypt
Euro zone
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Israel
Japan
Jordan
Kuwait
Latvia
Lebanon
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
New Zealand
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
U.A.E.
Ukraine
U.K.
U.S.
Venezuela
Vietnam
Next
Meets
2/4
1/15
1/31
1/22
1/16
1/31
2/6
2/6
1/21
2/12
1/28
2/13
1/27
1/29
1/31
3/19
1/29
3/27
1/13
2/13
2/6
2/5
2/4
1/29
2/13
2/13
3/20
3/25
1/22
1/21
2/6
1/29
Policy
Rate
13.00%
2.50%
2.25%
10.00%
0.02%
1.00%
4.50%
6.00%
3.25%
7.00%
0.05%
0.20%
9.25%
0.25%
0.50%
3.00%
6.00%
6.75%
7.50%
1.00%
0.10%
4.25%
2.00%
0.25%
10.00%
3.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
1.50%
1.00%
10.00%
4.00%
3.50%
2.50%
4.50%
3.75%
8.25%
2.00%
0.01%
5.00%
2.50%
0.75%
0.00%
1.88%
2.25%
4.50%
1.00%
6.50%
0.50%
0.25%
15.66%
9.00%
Taylor
Rule
4.20%
3.35%
0.30%
-1.30%
1.45%
4.17%
1.10%
3.05%
4.45%
0.55%
1.45%
11.5%
2.50%
0.68%
3M
Chg
125
0
0
150
-1
0
-50
0
0
0
0
0
-100
-25
0
-80
0
50
25
0
0
-25
0
-175
0
0
-25
0
0
0
0
100
-25
0
0
0
-50
0
0
-14
0
0
-25
0
0
-25
0
0
0
0
0
-395
0
6M
Chg
0
-25
0
250
0
0
-50
0
0
0
0
0
-150
-25
0
-150
0
50
150
-25
0
-50
0
-225
0
0
-50
0
0
0
0
50
-25
0
0
0
-125
0
0
-2
0
0
-25
0
0
-50
0
0
-50
0
0
-410
0
1Y
Chg
330
-75
0
275
-1
0
-50
0
-100
0
0
0
-100
-50
0
-300
0
-25
175
-100
0
-50
0
-225
0
0
-100
0
0
0
0
0
-25
0
-175
0
-150
0
0
0
0
-25
-50
0
0
-50
0
-100
0
0
-41
0
CPI
y/y
10.5%
2.2%
3.6%
5.9%
-1.5%
0.9%
3.0%
2.5%
1.9%
0.4%
1.4%
0.8%
11.7%
0.8%
4.3%
0.9%
4.2%
11.5%
8.4%
1.9%
1.5%
3.3%
2.6%
-0.4%
0.6%
2.9%
4.0%
1.0%
1.4%
2.0%
0.5%
9.2%
2.9%
4.1%
0.6%
1.4%
1.8%
6.5%
3.1%
2.6%
5.3%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
1.7%
7.4%
1.4%
0.5%
2.1%
1.2%
51.7%
6.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
3M
Chg
Prior
12M
Est.
1Q14
2.38%
Est.
2Q14
2.38%
Est.
3Q14
2.38%
Est.
4Q14
2.50%
10.38% 10.38% 10.38% 10.50%
1.00%
4.25%
6.00%
3.38%
6.00%
0.00%
0.25%
1.00%
4.25%
6.00%
3.63%
6.00%
0.00%
0.25%
1.00%
4.25%
6.00%
3.88%
6.00%
0.00%
0.25%
1.13%
4.25%
6.00%
4.13%
6.00%
0.13%
0.38%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
7.00%
7.75%
0.88%
0.10%
6.88%
7.88%
0.88%
0.10%
6.75%
7.75%
1.13%
0.10%
6.50%
7.50%
1.25%
0.10%
3.00%
3.50%
3.13%
3.50%
3.13%
3.63%
3.25%
3.63%
2.63%
1.50%
3.00%
1.50%
3.13%
1.63%
3.38%
1.50%
4.00%
3.50%
2.50%
3.88%
3.63%
2.50%
3.88%
3.75%
2.63%
3.88%
3.88%
2.88%
3.63%
7.63%
3.63%
7.50%
3.63%
7.38%
3.75%
7.25%
5.00%
2.50%
1.00%
0.00%
1.88%
2.25%
4.75%
5.00%
2.50%
1.00%
0.00%
1.88%
2.38%
5.13%
5.13%
2.50%
1.00%
0.00%
2.00%
2.50%
5.25%
5.25%
2.75%
1.13%
0.00%
2.00%
2.75%
5.38%
6.38%
0.50%
0.25%
6.25%
0.50%
0.25%
6.00%
0.50%
0.25%
6.00%
0.50%
0.25%

11. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Market Indicators
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
11
By Bloomberg Brief Editors
Mouse Over Commentary for Connections
Australian stocks will
extend gains in 2014,
building on the best
returns relative to
bonds since 2009, a
survey of strategists
shows. There are signs
that low rates are supporting spending, RBA
Governor Stevens said
in Dec. 18 remarks to a
parliamentary panel in
Canberra.
Developing countries
accounted for the 10
worst-performing stock
markets in 2013. A
year-end cash crunch
in China has weighed
on local equity markets
and will likely hurt
China’s fourth quarter
growth. A similar cash
crunch occurred in June
that slowed China’s
GDP growth down to
7.5 percent, triggering
a mini-fiscal stimulus
program. {WEIS <GO>}
Japanese stocks
climbed the most
among industrialized
nations in 2013. Stocks
could surpass a level
not seen since 2007 if
the government pushes
through in its drive
to loosen business
regulations, said Heizo
Takenaka, a member of
a government council
on special economic
zones. The Nikkei 225
Stock Average “could
easily exceed 18,000
in light of Japan’s
economic strength,”
Takenaka said in an
interview.
MSCI EQUITY INDEXES
TICKER
COUNTRY
MXAU Index
MXCN Index
MXHK Index
MXID Index
MXIN Index
MXJP Index
MXKR Index
MXMY Index
MXPH Index
MXSG Index
MXLK Index
TAMSCI Index
MXTH Index
MXVI Index
Australia
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
MXUS Index
MXCA Index
MXMX Index
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
MXAR Index
MXBR Index
MXCL Index
MXCO Index
MXPE Index
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
MXEG Index
MXIL Index
MSEUSJO Index
MXNI Index
MSEUSTK Index
MXZA Index
MXAE Index
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Nigeria
Turkey
South Africa
U.A.E.
MXAT Index
MXBE Index
MXEST Index
MXFI Index
MXFR index
MXDE Index
MXGR Index
MXIE Index
MXIT Index
MXNL Index
MXPT Index
SKSM Index
MXES Index
Austria
Belgium
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
MXBU Index
MXCZ Index
MXDK Index
MXHU Index
RIGSE Index
VILSE Index
MXPL Index
MXRO Index
MXSE Index
MXGB Index
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Hungary
Latvia*
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Sweden
U.K.
ICEXI Index
MXNO Index
MXRU Index
MXCH Index
MXUK Index
Iceland
Norway
Russia
Switzerland
Ukraine
LAST PRICE
Asia/Pacific
YoY
%Chg
52W
Min
Average 52W
Last
Max
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
TICKER
COUNTRY
1086.4
61.4
12205.2
4841.2
804.0
807.5
569.7
654.1
1013.2
1686.2
688.5
296.7
452.3
555.6
13.6%
-5.2%
3.8%
-7.6%
4.0%
48.8%
-1.2%
9.3%
0.8%
-0.9%
12.6%
7.0%
-13.1%
-3.4%
956
51
10,600
4,487
699
548
509
574
941
1,602
598
273
432
509
1115
66
12380
6149
818
808
605
669
1224
1823
778
303
573
629
GACGB10 Index
GCNY10YR Index
HKGG10Y Index
GIDN10YR Index
GIND10YR Index
GJGB10 Index
GVSK10YR Index
MGIY10Y Index
PDSF10YR Index
MASB10Y Index
GGSL10YR Index
GVTW10YR Index
GVTL10YR Index
Australia
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
1758.3
1723.2
6785.6
25.9%
9.3%
-8.6%
1,406
1,495
5,951
1768
1726
7772
USGG10YR Index
GCAN10YR Index
GMXN10YR Index
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
1919.2
2140.5
1800.2
1011.5
1080.7
44.1%
-23.2%
-28.3%
-26.1%
-33.2%
1,158
2,053
1,793
1,011
1,020
2258
2839
2601
1393
1681
1390.9
200.2
97.4
817.2
445.4
1122.3
408.3
8.5%
7.4%
-6.5%
19.4%
-31.8%
9.4%
71.9%
992
179
82
674
431
916
238
1399
202
112
856
737
1147
416
EGPT10Y ARAB Index
GISR10YR Index
125.1
74.6
864.8
99.7
119.2
130.5
19.8
36.7
55.8
100.9
54.4
194.4
112.4
7.2%
19.6%
0.3%
30.5%
14.9%
20.3%
50.1%
40.4%
8.0%
20.6%
1.9%
3.1%
19.4%
101
62
820
72
100
105
12
25
43
82
47
179
81
125
75
992
101
120
132
20
37
56
101
GAGB10YR Index
GBGB10YR Index
203.6
252.8
5454.9
900.3
465.7
437.1
1673.0
681.4
10089.9
1982.9
84.6%
-14.3%
16.2%
-13.5%
13.7%
19.3%
-5.5%
15.1%
17.2%
9.7%
111
223
4,322
880
395
367
1,543
542
8,495
1,783
204
290
5455
1107
473
438
1852
681
10142
2023
879.7
2631.1
756.6
1082.9
122.9
23.3%
11.8%
-9.1%
16.8%
-18.3%
724
2,256
668
926
110
886
2674
863
1083
228
North America
South America
Middle East & Africa
Europe
GEBR10Y Index
COGR10Y Index
GRPE10Y Index
CTNGN10Y Govt
IECM10Y Index
GSAB9YR Index
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Nigeria
Turkey
South Africa
U.A.E.
Euro Area
Non-Euro EU
Non EU
LAST
YIELD
YoY
BPS
Asia/Pacific
4.32%
92.1
4.62% 102.0
2.41% 156.8
8.94% 378.1
8.79%
89.5
0.70% -13.0
3.67%
62.4
4.17%
66.1
4.27%
-9.5
2.56% 116.0
9.84% -143.2
1.69%
51.8
4.05%
39.7
North America
52W
Min
Average
Last
52W
Max
3.0
3.4
0.8
5.2
7.1
0.4
2.7
3.1
3.0
1.3
9.8
1.2
3.3
4.4
4.7
2.6
9.1
9.2
0.9
3.8
4.2
4.6
2.8
12.1
1.7
4.4
2.99%
2.72%
6.48%
113.6
80.9
104.5
1.6
1.7
4.4
3.0
2.8
6.6
10.88%
85.0
9.2
11.6
6.79%
5.59%
133.0
147.0
4.7
3.9
7.6
6.1
15.00%
3.67%
-38.0
14.9
3.5
17.0
4.1
13.11%
10.04%
7.99%
340.0
168.3
6.1
5.8
10.6
8.0
42.9
37.7
1.5
1.9
2.5
2.9
2.11%
43.8
2.57%
46.8
1.92%
43.8
7.71%
-389
3.28% -112.3
3.93% -34.8
2.22%
56.2
5.39% -112.4
2.58%
43.7
3.80% -133.2
1.3
1.7
1.2
7.7
3.3
3.8
1.5
5.2
2.1
3.8
2.3
2.6
2.0
12.8
3.3
4.9
2.5
7.5
3.1
5.4
2.54%
1.96%
5.46%
58.4
42
-66.0
1.5
1.3
4.9
2.6
2.2
6.8
4.49%
66.4
3.00% -171.5
2.46%
76.0
2.98%
95.9
3.1
3.0
1.6
1.6
4.9
4.5
2.7
3.1
2.95%
8.01%
1.25%
2.0
6.7
0.6
3.3
8.4
1.3
South America
Middle East & Africa
Europe
Euro Area
Yields on the benchmark 10-year note rose 1.27
percentage points, the most in four years, to end
2013 at 3.03 percent. Based on the median estimate of 64 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg,
10-year yields will increase to 3.42 percent by
the end of 2014. {ECFC <GO>}
202
112
GFIN10YR Index
GFRN10 Index
GDBR10 Index
GGGB10YR Index
GIGB9YR Index
GBTPGR10 Index
GNTH10YR Index
GSPT10YR Index
GRSK10Y Index
GSPG10YR Index
CZGB10YR Index
GDGB10YR Index
GHGB10YR Index
POGB10YR Index
GRRO5YR Index
GSGB10YR Index
GUKG10 Index
GNOR10YR Index
MICXRU10 Index
GSWISS10 Index
Austria
Belgium
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
*Ireland (9Y)
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Hungary
Latvia*
Lithuania
Poland
*Romania (5Y)
Sweden
U.K.
Iceland
Norway
Russia
Switzerland
Ukraine
2.26%
2.57%
Non-Euro EU
Non EU
77.2
116.8
67.2
Greece’s bonds had the biggest returns in 2013 among the 26 sovereign markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European Federation
of Financial Analysts Societies. Ireland and Portugal, both recipients
of bailouts alongside Greece, held bond sales in early January 2014
and Greece says it may sell bonds in 2014 as well. “We are gradually moving from fear to greed,” said Jacupo Ceccatelli, a Londonbased partner in the financial advisory and asset management firm
JCI Capital. {WB <GO>}
*All data as of Jan. 9. *Latvia joined the euro zone Jan. 1. Source: Bloomberg
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

12. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Market Indicators
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
12
By Bloomberg Brief Editors
Mouse Over Commentary for Connections
Aluminum, last year’s
second-worst performing industrial
metal, may be poised
for a stronger 2014
as inefficient global
production comes
offline and demand
improves, particularly
in the North American
automotive market.
Prices are expected
to move back toward
the symbolic $2,000-ametric-ton mark by the
end of the year, with the
Bloomberg consensus
forecast pegging the
aluminum price at
$1,950 in the fourth
quarter versus $1,800
in the first quarter.
{FIFW CPF<GO>}
The most-accurate
forecasters of 2013
expect Brent crude
prices to weaken for a
second year in 2014 as
U.S. output expands
and threats to Middle
East and North African
supply ease. The Brent
benchmark will average $105 a barrel in
2014, from $108.71 in
2013, according to the
median of estimates
from the seven analysts
who most accurately
predicted this year’s
level in a survey last
December.
OTHER INDICATORS
TICKER
CURRENCIES
LAST
PRICE
SPREAD/RATE/INDEX
U.S.
$$SWAP10 Curncy
USGGBE05 Index
.2Y10Y Index
.TED3M Index
.LIBORIOS Index
.AAABAA Index
MUNSMT10 Index
10Y US Swap Spread
5Y Breakeven Rate
2Y10Y Spread
3M Ted Spread
3M Libor/OIS
IG HY Corp Spread
Muni Spread
EUR003M Index
EONIA Index
EUSA10 Index
3M Euribor
EONIA
EUR 10Y Swap Rate
BUBOR03M Index
WIBO3M Index
BP0003M Index
Hungary BUBOR
Poland WIBO 3M
U.K. LIBOR GBP 3M
MOIB91 Index
SF0003M Index
Russia Moscow Intbk
Switzerland LIBOR CHF
SHIF3M Index
CCSDO2 Curncy
BOCRYLD Index
3M SHIBOR
2Y CNY IRS
Avg Dim Sum Yield
JY0003M Index
TI0003M Index
JYSW2 Curncy
LIBOR 3M
3M TIBOR
2Y Yen Swap
CIBO03M Index
JPEIPLSP Index
HIHD03M Index
JIIN3M Index
NSERO3M Index
SIBF3M Index
KWSWOOC Curncy
TRLIB3M Index
Denmark CIBOR 3M
EMBI+ Spread
Hong Kong 3M HIBOR
Indonesia 3M JIBOR
India 3M MIBOR
Singapore SIBOR 3M
S. Korea 3M OIS
Turkey TRLIBOR 3m
COMMODITIES
TICKER
COMMODITY
Corn
Coffee
Sugar
Wheat
LA1 Comdty
HG1 Comdty
GC1 Comdty
SI1 Comdty
Aluminum
Copper
Gold
Silver
CO1 Comdty
CL1 Comdty
XB1 Comdty
NG1 Comdty
Crude (Brent)
Crude (WTI)
Gasoline
Natural Gas
CRY Index
BDIY Index
CMDI3MO Index
DBLCDBAT Index
CRB Index
Baltic Dry Index
Bloomberg 3M Cmdty
DBIQ Diversified Ag
52W
Min
Average 52W
Last
Max
9.25%
1.94%
256.39
20.62
14.9
79.00
96.97
6.5
-20.9
-4.3
-2.1
-15.0
0.0
2.8
1.6
142.9
14.2
13
72.0
86.4
0.28%
0.14%
2.18%
0.1
0.1
0.5
0
0.1
1.4
0
0.4
2.4
2.99%
2.60%
0.52%
-2.7
-1.4
0.0
3.0
2.5
0.5
5.7
3.9
0.5
7.42%
0.02%
-0.1
0.0
7.3
0.01
7.8
0.02
5.58%
3.05%
4.34%
168.1
12.0
-57.0
3.9
2.9
3.8
5.8
3.1
6.0
0.15%
0.22%
0.21%
-2.8
-8.8
-2.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.27%
339.72
0.38%
7.87%
9.15%
0.40%
2.49%
9.12%
-0.7
94.7
-2.1
291.4
38.0
2.8
-32.0
332.9
0.2
242.8
0.4
4.9
8.2
0.4
2.5
4.7
Euro Area
Europe Non-Euro EU
C 1 Comdty
KC1 Comdty
SB1 Comdty
W 1 Comdty
Copper prices may come under pressure in 2014 as new mine supply is
brought on stream, contributing to a
swelling global surplus. The Bloomberg consensus forecast sees copper
easing to $6,816 per metric ton in
the fourth quarter from $6,983 in the
first quarter, though analysts don’t
expect the price to slip much lower
without high-cost operations being
taken offline. Automotive and appliance
demand and infrastructure spending in
China will also help keep a floor under
copper prices.
YoY
bps/%
Europe Non-EU
China
Japan
Other Global
LAST
PRICE
25.5
2.4
264.8
26.3
18
108.0
115.4
0.4
389.0
0.4
7.9
11.6
0.4
2.8
9.1
YoY
%Chg
52W
Min
408.50
120.00
15.44
580.00
-41.2%
-18.9%
-17.5%
-22.2%
408.5
101.5
15.4
580.0
741.3
156.3
19.5
791.3
1733.00
329.45
1223.50
19.5
-14.8%
-10.2%
-26.1%
-35.5%
1700
302.4
1195
18.5
2128
378.5
1693
32.4
107.05
91.84
266.1
4.11
-4.2%
-1.4%
-4.3%
32.0%
97.7
86.7
250.3
3.2
118.9
110.5
320.4
4.5
273.42
1826.00
229.52
201.0
-7.0%
148.8%
-7.2%
-11.2%
272.5
735
217.8
200.0
305.1
2337
253.2
228.0
Agricultural
Metals
Energy
Indexes
Average 52W
Last
Max
The Turkish lira, the worst performing
major currency in EMEA since June,
will plunge in the first quarter as a
corruption probe roils markets before
elections, the top forecaster said. The
lira will fall 5.5 percent to 2.31 per
dollar in the first three months, then
weaken to 2.42 by June before stabilizing, according to Przemyslaw Kwiecien,
chief economist at X-Trade Broker
Dom Maklerski SA in Warsaw, the most
accurate analyst in the fourth quarter.
TICKER
LAST
PRICE
CURRENCY
AUD Curncy
CNY Curncy
HKD Curncy
INR Curncy
IDR Curncy
JPY Curncy
MYR Curncy
NZD Curncy
PHP Curncy
SGD Curncy
KRW Curncy
LKR Curncy
TWD Curncy
THB Curncy
VND Curncy
Australian Dollar
Chinese Renminbi
Hong Kong Dollar
Indian Rupee
Indonesian Rupiah
Japanese Yen
Malaysian Ringgit
New Zealand Dollar
Philippine Peso
Singapore Dollar
South Korean Won
Sri Lankan Rupee
Taiwan Dollar
Thai Baht
Vietnamese Dong
GBP Curncy
CZK Curncy
DKK Curncy
EUR Curncy
HUF Curncy
ISK Curncy
NOK Curncy
PLN Curncy
RON Curncy
RUB Curncy
SEK Curncy
CHF Curncy
UAH Curncy
British Pound
Czech Koruna
Danish Krone
Euro
Hungarian Forint
Iceland Krona
Norwegian Krone
Polish Zloty
Romanian Leu
Russian Ruble
Swedish Krona
Swiss Franc
Ukranian Hryvnia
ARS Curncy
BRL Curncy
CAD Curncy
CLP Curncy
COP Curncy
MXN Curncy
PEN Curncy
Argentina Peso
Brazilian Real
Canadian Dollar
Chilean Peso
Colombian Peso
Mexican Peso
Peruvian Sol
EGP Curncy
IRR Curncy
ILS Curncy
MAD Curncy
NGN Curncy
ZAR Curncy
SYP Curncy
TRY Curncy
AED Curncy
Egyptian Pound
Iranian Rial
Israeli Shekel
Moroccan Dirham
Nigerian Naira
South African Rand
Syrian Pound
Turkish Lira
UAE Dirham
EURSEK Curncy
EURGBP Curncy
EURNOK Curncy
EURCHF Curncy
EURJPY Curncy
EUR/SEK
EUR/GBP
EUR/NOK
EUR/CHF
EUR/JPY
AUDJPY Curncy
GBPJPY Curncy
EURJPY Curncy
CHFJPY Curncy
NOKJPY Curncy
AUD/JPY
GBP/JPY
EUR/JPY
CHF/JPY
NOK/JPY
On Dec. 31, 2012,
analysts forecasted the yen
would end 2015
at 88. Following
the introduction
of Abenomics,
that forecast now
stands at 114.
{FXFC <GO>}
YoY
%CHG
52W
Min
0.89
6.06
7.75
62.08
12193.0
104.73
3.28
0.82
44.67
1.27
1062.70
130.70
30.17
33.03
21095
-15.5%
2.8%
0.0%
-11.8%
-20.7%
-16.1%
-7.3%
-1.8%
-8.7%
-3.5%
-0.1%
-3.4%
-3.8%
-8.0%
-1.2%
0.9
6.1
7.8
53.1
9618
88.4
3.0
0.8
40.6
1.2
1050
125.4
28.9
28.7
20825
1.1
6.2
7.8
68.8
12261
105.3
3.3
0.9
44.8
1.3
1161
133.2
30.2
33.1
21243
1.65
20.18
5.49
1.36
220.3
117.01
6.19
3.07
3.34
33.23
6.56
0.91
8.27
2.7%
-2.9%
4.0%
4.0%
0.7%
10.9%
-9.6%
1.6%
0.7%
-8.7%
0.1%
1.9%
-2.0%
1.5
18.6
5.4
1.3
212
115.0
5.5
3.0
3.2
29.9
6.3
0.9
8.1
1.7
20.3
5.8
1.4
238
129.5
6.3
3.4
3.5
33.5
6.8
1.0
8.3
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Americas
Average
Last
6.63 -25.5%
4.9
2.40 -15.0%
1.9
1.09 -9.0%
1.0
533.84 -11.7% 467.1
1934.97 -8.6% 1759.0
13.15 -3.3%
12.0
2.80 -9.0%
2.5
Middle East & Africa
6.96
24653
3.50
8.26
158.87
10.81
142.66
2.19
3.67
52W
Max
6.6
2.5
1.1
534.5
1956.3
13.4
2.8
-6.5%
-50.2%
8.0%
3.2%
-1.6%
-20.5%
-50.2%
-18.8%
0.0%
6.5
12229
3.5
8.1
156.1
8.6
69.4
1.7
3.7
7.0
24853
3.7
8.7
163.9
10.8
142.9
2.2
3.7
8.92 -3.8%
1 -1.3%
8.42 -13.1%
1.23 -2.1%
142.35 -19.3%
8.3
1
7.3
1.2
117.5
9.1
1
8.5
1.3
145.1
93.05 -0.7%
172 -18.3%
142.35 -19.3%
115.31 -17.6%
16.91 -7.1%
86.7
139
117.5
94.9
15.9
105.2
174
145.1
118.5
17.7
EUR Crosses
JPY Crosses
Brazil’s worsening external position
has helped fuel a sharp depreciation in the real, which the Fed’s taper
may worsen. Brazil’s shrinking trade
surplus has made it increasingly reliant on foreign capital inflows and thus
more susceptible to external shocks.
*All data as of Jan. 9. Source: Bloomberg
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

13. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
MARKETS
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
13
BY Bloomberg Brief Editors
U.S. Fiscal Debate, Fed Tapering, Euro-Area Politics Had Biggest Investor Impact in 2013
Fiscal stalemate pushed the U.S. to the edge of default. The Federal Reserve gave investors months to prepare for a reduction in
stimulus, even surprising analysts with no tapering in September. Europe’s economy continued to improve, with echoes of crisis in Italy
and Cyprus. China embraced reform even as it showed signs of an economic slowdown. These stories that moved markets in 2013 will
continue to play out in the coming year.
The chart below highlights investors’ responses to economic events and other news across equities, foreign exchange, fixed income
and commodities, using proxy indexes for each market.
Click the index title box to display specific events for
that particular asset class.
Bloomberg World Equities Index
BWORLD Index
Bloomberg U.S. 10-Year Treasury bond Index
BUSY10 Index
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index
BBDXY Index
UBS Bloomberg constant maturity commodity Index
CMCIPI Index
The U.S. Congress passed legislation on
Jan. 1 that prevented income taxes from
rising for most Americans while taxing
top-earners more. Failure to reach a “grand
bargain” on federal spending resulted in
$1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts
going into effect on March 1.
Cyprus secured 10 billion euro in aid on
March 25 after agreeing to tax deposits.
The so-called troika said in December the
country is “on track” to meet fiscal targets.
Italy’s Enrico Letta formed a coalition government in April after weeks of deadlock
following the Feb. 24-25 elections.
Federal Reserve officials signaled in May
that they were ready to taper asset buying
if economic data continued to improve.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on June 19
that stimulus may end by mid-2014. The Fed
surprised many traders on Sept. 18 when it
maintained monthly purchases at $85 billion.
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
90
85
Normalized to Dec. 31, 2012
01 02
03 03
04 04
05 06 07 08 09 09
10 10
11 11
12
12
01
02
05
06
07
08
A cash crunch in China in June added to
fears of a slowdown in the world’s secondlargest economy, as regulators sought to
control excessive lending. In December, the
government warned of further “downward
pressure” on growth, while rates surged
again on year-end cash demand.
A fiscal impasse led to a 16-day U.S. government shutdown that ended on Oct. 16
with a temporary deal. Obama signed a budget on Dec. 27 easing $63 billion in spending cuts for the next two years. Congress
must pass an additional spending measure
by Jan. 15 to avoid another shutdown.
12
U.S. housing and employment data continued to improve. The Fed said on Dec. 18
it will pare monthly bond purchases by $10
billion, while pledging to hold rates close to
zero. Fed officials predicted the jobless rate
will fall to as low as 6.3 percent by end-2014
from 7 percent in November.
Source: Bloomberg
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

14. 01.15.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2013 Global Review
14
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