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Automation: work, inequality, skills and jobs

Azeem Azhar's submission to the All Party Parliamentary Group on AI.

Oct 16, 2017.

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Automation: work, inequality, skills and jobs

  1. Automation: inequality & skills Azeem Azhar, Exponential View Sign up to Exponential View at www.exponentialview.co @azeem Presentation to All Party Parliamentary Group on AI, 16/10/2017
  2. www.exponentialview.co Growth in inequality Source: House of Commons Briefing Paper 7484
  3. www.exponentialview.co Decline in labour share of value Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  4. www.exponentialview.co ...in all markets -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Spain Italy RepublicofKorea UnitedStates Japan Australia Canada Germany France UnitedKingdom Changes in labour shares in G20 countries (plus Spain) — Advanced economies 1970-2014 Source: The Labor Share in G20 Economies, International Labor Organization, OECD, 2015
  5. www.exponentialview.co Automation has created superstar firms for decades Employment 0 250000 500000 750000 1000000 GM (1979) Microsoft (2015) Facebook (2015) Source: Exponential View Analysis
  6. www.exponentialview.co Leading to huge value per employee in superstar firms Source: Exponential View Analysis 0 7.5 15 22.5 30 GM Microsoft Facebook
  7. www.exponentialview.co And the trend continues with each subsequent paradigm Source: Exponential View Analysis MAU (m) / Engineer 0 4 8 12 16 Google Facebook Instagram Whatsapp MAU = monthly active users. Estimation from company 
 statements. Exponential View analysis.
  8. www.exponentialview.coSource: GartnerSYM, 2016 Value is created faster than ever before 0 2 4 6 7 9 11 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 • Docusign • Shopify • Palantir • Facebook • Whatsapp • Spotify • Twitter • Evernote • Dropbox • Box • Tumblr • Mongo DB • Cloudera • AppNexus • Pinterest • Airbnb • Uber • Stripe • Instagram • Square • Snapchat • OculusRift • Slack Number of years to reach $1bn valuation from the date founded
  9. www.exponentialview.co Progress in ML & automation is breaking new boundaries PROCESSING POWER DATA RESEARCH BREAKTHROUGHS No signs of a slow down
 e.g. Pegasus; quantum Growing exponentially 
 increasingly multi-modal Deep learning was just
 the gateway drug While the grand challenges of "artificial general intelligence" seem decades if not further away, progress in multiple narrow domains is rapid. These domains can be "chained together" to create end-to-end solutions of remarkable capability. E.g. intelligent earth observation, routing & delivery, home assistants image recognition speech recognition translation playing Go playing poker driving cars detecting cancer bail assessment
  10. www.exponentialview.co Two divergent scanarios wide-scale automation industrial reconfiguration 1 2 • handful of jobs, if any • mass long-term 
 unemployment • plenty of jobs • new classes of work 😌 😌😌 😌😌😌
  11. www.exponentialview.co Two divergent scanarios wide-scale automation industrial reconfiguration 1 2 • handful of jobs, if any • mass long-term 
 unemployment • plenty of jobs • new classes of work 😌😌 😌 😌😌 😌😌😌 5-15 years Millions of people will see their jobs change
 * daily tasks
 * responsibilities
 * skills required
 * psychological cost Millions of people may see their 
 employment end
 * need to find new work
 * new retraining
 * psychological cost
  12. www.exponentialview.co Mitigations: corporate responsibility, skills & training, reframing & support COMPANIES SHOULD NOT REPUDIATE
 QUESTION (destigmatise) If automation does happen, it should 1. Lead to higher company profits & more competitive firms 2. As the pie enlarges, then there should be abundant to go around and clean up the social externalities. If automation does not happen…. 1. It is because labour costs fall below the cost of automation (a frightening possibility) 2. Or a hard protectionism takes root, to protect local worker (leading to lower standards of living for all) If automation does grow without mitigation… 1. Social unrest & pitchforks may follow (ongoing learning) (share decision making & benefits)
  13. www.exponentialview.co Azeem Azhar @azeem www.exponentialview.co