Gen AI in Business - Global Trends Report 2024.pdf
Sustainability - the driver of innovation
1. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Sustainability: the driver for
innovation?
Designing Resilient
Cities
Rob MacKenzie (on behalf of the Urban Futures team)
Monday 1 July, 2013
2. Sustainability, no matter what definition is used,
is all about the future - putting in place now interventions
(solutions) to problems that will yield a positive rather than negative
future legacy.
Sustainability and Interventions I
3. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Question
“how sustainable are
the interventions we
propose?”
Designing Resilient Cities
4. Tower Blocks
Built as a response
to post-War housing
crisis
Initially seen as sign
of modernity
People enjoyed the
light, the new
bathrooms and
kitchens
5. Poor maintenance
Poor management
Failed lifts and other
amenities
Key Learning
Maintenance and
management critical to
success; intervention is
a system
Tower Blocks
for housing
6. What sometimes happens…
Case study
(+
Assessment
modelling)
Problem
identified
Solution
designed
Nothing
Happens
Solution
Successful
Something
bad happens
INNOVATION
7. Sustainability and Interventions II
For an intervention to succeed, certain necessary conditions must remain
in place
but these conditions are usually only implicitly considered (if at all) in
planning and development.
The continuation of necessary conditions determines the resilience of a
solution.
8. Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Question
“how sustainable are
the interventions we
propose?”
Designing Resilient Cities
Answer
“it depends on
what the futures
hold”
9. The Future is plural
Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change
Urban Futures are
• derived from established philosophical positions: Thomas
Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, EF Schumacher.
• derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales
Derived urban futures can pressure-test sustainability solutions
Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions
can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to
implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.
10. How might
the future
change?
The
population
decreases?
The site is sold
and the new
owner doesn‟t
prioritise reduced
car ownership?
Someone
removes the
roadside
trees?
Live/work
becomes
the
norm?
Shopping
patterns
change?
Government
policy
changes? The city
becomes
more
densely
populated?
There is no budget in five
years to pay for
maintenance?
Residents prefer a
tumble dryer to
hanging their
washing outside?
16. Fortress World
The world is divided,
with the elite in
interconnected,
protected enclaves
and an impoverished
majority outside
17. The Urban Futures Method
Using future scenarios to determine performance of
interventions made in the name of sustainability
18. Sustainability and Interventions III
An Intervention must have at least one intended benefit,
but it is often lost in the design or decision chains of planning and
development.
Any solution/intervention can have unintended drawbacks.
Drawbacks are often context-specific, but so too are benefits.
MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past
the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010.
20. Step 2
Necessary Conditions for Success
• Non-potable water demand
• Enough greywater must be
collected
• Enough greywater must be
stored
• Must be economically viable
• Must be acceptable to the
community
• Others?
22. New Sust‟bility
Paradigm
Efficient
technologies
and use
Policy Reform
Efficient
technologies
but not use
Market Forces
No change
from current
behavior
Fortress World
Rich and Poor
Non-potable
water
demand
Low demand
Medium
demand
High demand
Rich – High
demand
Poor – Low
demand
Enough
water must
be collected
Risk not
enough
collected
Enough
collected
Enough
collected
Rich – Risk not
enough collected
Poor – not enough
collected
Enough
water must
be stored
Risk not
enough stored
Enough
stored
Enough
stored
Rich – Risk not
enough stored
Poor – Not enough
stored
Economically
viable
ROI takes too
long
ROI
borderline
acceptable
Fast ROI
Fast ROI for rich
and poor
Acceptable to
the
community
Highly
acceptable
Questionable
acceptability
Low
acceptability
High acceptability
Scenarios
NecessaryConditions
24. STEP 1
Solution &
Benefit
STEP 2
Necessary
Conditions
STEP 3
Future
Performance
STEP 4
Resilience to
future
change
STEP 5b
Adapt
STEP 5a
Implement
STEP 5c
Seek
Alternative
The analysis has flagged up reasons why
the solution may fail. This is the starting
point for adapting the solution or..
INNOVATION
25. STEP 1
Solution &
Benefit
STEP 2
Necessary
Conditions
STEP 3
Future
Performance
STEP 4
Resilience to
future
change
STEP 5b
Adapt
STEP 5a
Implement
STEP 5c
Seek
Alternative
This analysis - reasons why the solution may fail.
Starting point for adapting the solution or..
Considering more resilient alternatives
INNOVATION
INNOVATION
26. Lombardi DR, Leach JM,
Rogers CDF et al. (2012)
Designing Resilient Cities: a
Guide to Good Practice. IHS
BRE Press, Bracknell, UK
Quick example of a solution designed to meet a problem, that was welcomed at first but hit a range of problems until finally discredited as beset by and giving rise to a range of other problems
Understanding the possible future changes that will impact on a solution helps to manage risk and support more informed decisionmaking.
Slide asking What if...Showing some questions reflecting possible future changesThis is not an exhaustive list, just a flavor... the future develops differently?
Slide Future Scenarios / How will the future develop?Leads into the scenarios section
The scenarios used in the tool are drawn from those used by the UK Government for policy and planning purposes. They are robust and an extensive review of the literature resulted in convergence on 4 distinct plausible scenarios. The bulk of the research project work was in defining the characteristics for these scenarios against a number of themes and sub sets of indicators which will see more about later in the talk.As we go through the scenarios you will probably have your own experience of examples of each of them – but don’t get locked into 2D images – each scenario – as said already has a deep and wide set of characteristics used by the tool - this set is an evidence base for you to use which is tailored for the UK context and is coherent and internally consistent. We can’t predict one future, one way the world will developSo, we have developed 4 future scenarios of the futureThey are plausible but very different so they can be used to effectively pressure test solutionsThey are UK based, but could easily be adapted for OECDThey are grounded in the academic literature and based upon work by the Global Scenarios GroupIf a solution works in all 4 scenarios then it will likely work in the future – no matter how it develops
The Urban Futures Method and Tool / Using Future Scenarios to Determine Performance – I am going to give a brief overview of the 5 steps in the tool. We will then give a couple of case study examples.Leads into the section describing the Method – this is how we use the scenariosExample to be used throughout this section = rainwater harvesting for reducing the demand for potable water
Step 1: Choose a sustainability solution and one of its intended benefits.Scale can range for building to masterplanExamples = installing a greywater recycling scheme, developing a mixed use site,putting in a low flush toilet, creating a city cycle network, planting urban trees,installing SUDS, putting up a green wall, installing multi utility tunnels, developing acity park, instigating a density gradient policy and using local suppliers.Solutions frequently have many benefits, but each must be considered in turn. Eg.Trees for biodiversity and trees for visual amenity.
Step 2: Indentify the conditions necessary for the solution to deliver its intended benefit.o Necessary conditions = what needs to be in place (now and thus in the future) forthe solution to deliver as planned?o Want enough to be useful and not superficial, but not too many to make the analysisoverbearing.o Also want to identify the most important / influential necessary conditions. Allnecessary conditions may not be created equal.o At this point we can tap the audience for additional necessary conditions: therainwater harvesting example has 5 generic and important necessary conditions.You may wish to identify others and certainly ones that take into account the localcontext of your specific case. For example – what water collection parametersexist for the development in question? How sustainability minded are the targetresidents? The council? The developer?
Showing the rest of the necessary conditions completed