Covid 19: Understanding the context using systems thinking techniques webinar Thursday 22 October 2020 presented by David Cole, Frank Curtolo, Michael Emes, Dania Issa, Phil Knights, Cesar Rendora, Brian Slaughter and Andrew Wright The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar: https://www.apm.org.uk/news/covid-19-understanding-the-context-using-systems-thinking-techniques-webinar/

1. Understanding the Covid-19 pandemic
context using systems thinking techniques
APM working group from ST SIG
• David Cole
• Andrew Wright
• Phil Knights
• Cesar Rendora
• Brian Slaughter
• Frank Curtolo
• Michael Emes
Guest : Dania Issa

2. The People
David Cole - founder member and former APM Co-chair of the APM Systems Thinking
SIG
Andrew Wright – founder member and APM Co-Chair of the APM Systems Thinking SIG
Cesar Rendora - Director of Operations at Jacobs
Brian Slaughter – Project and Programme Professional & full MAPM member
Frank Curtolo – Principal Consultant at MI-GSO | PCUBED
Michael Emes, Director UCL Centre for Systems Engineering
Dania Issa, Lecturer, University of Westminster

3. What did we do and why did we do it?

4. VARIABLE
A
VARIABLE
B
What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?

5. What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?

6. What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?

7. CLDs in Project Management
© Axelos Management of Risk, 2010

8. CLDs in Project Risk Management
+
Perception of threat
Panic
buying/stockpiling
Levels of stock
-
-
R
Level of
supermarket
“rationing”
-
+
B

9. CLDs in Project Risk Management
-
+
Spread of Social
media unverified
stories
Official media
coverage
+
+
RNumber of “likes”
and “shares”
Medical
authorities
Intervention via
posts/stories on
social media
Search engines intervention
Level of trusted Information on social media
+
+
+
B

10. Systems Thinking – When to use It

11. Our approach to creating the Covid-19 CLD

12. Covid-19 Infection
Covid-19 Healthcare Impact
Covid-19
Countermeasures
Covid-19 Economic Impact
Environmental Impact
Potential Economic Changes
Covid-19
Media
Reporting

13. Covid-19 Infection topic detail

14. Covid-19 Countermeasures topic detail

15. Covid-19 Healthcare Impact topic detail

16. Covid-19 Economic Impact topic detail

17. Covid-19 Media Reporting topic detail

18. Using the CLD: Outgoing Links from Infection SpreadOutgoing links from Infection Spread

19. Using the CLD: Incoming Links to HMG Lock-Down PolicyIncoming links to HMG Lockdown Policy

20. Using the CLD: Systems Archetypes
Peter Senge. AZQuotes.com, Wind and Fly LTD, 2020. https://www.azquotes.com/quote/1204337, accessed October 17, 2020.

21. 'Shifting the Burden' Systems Archetype

22. 'Shifting the Burden' Systems Archetype

23. 'Tragedy of the Commons' Systems Archetype

24. 'Tragedy of the Commons' Systems Archetype

25. Conclusions: Using Causal Loop Diagrams
▪ Developing Causal Loop Diagrams encourages collaborative working and is an efficient
way to get people involved regardless of their experience with CLDs.
▪ Shows how action on a variable could impact other directly or indirectly linked variables
(cause/ effect relationships).
▪ Quick and easy to do; needed explanation but didn't need training.
▪ Needs discipline to keep looking at the big picture and not constrain the scope.
▪ Gives a big picture view of issues/ inter-relationships and reveals emergent patterns.
▪ Identifies subject areas (variables) that might otherwise be overlooked or missed.
▪ Once identified, topics of interest can then be studied separately as required.

26. Conclusions: Using Systems Thinking
• Using systems thinking can help better understand problems in terms of their complexity
of the relationships their components and how these impact one another.
• By better understanding the causes and effects of a problem one can devise
more effective and efficient solutions to deal with it.
• One tool, the CLD, we’ve shown to be quick and easy to use while giving valuable insights.
• The CLD is a qualitative model, though it could be used as the basis from which to
develop a quantitative model (simulation) to investigate the dynamics of the situation.
• CLD application to Risk Management helps prepare better mitigations and contingencies
based on a deeper understanding of the variables at play and their dynamics.

27. Conclusions: P3M insights post-COVID-19
1. High levels of interconnectedness mean you must keep a view of the big
picture for your projects
2. Look for patterns that can be addressed.
3. Review the planned benefits of your projects and how they will be
realised in the 'new normal’
4. We’re now in Complex (not very-Complicated) times: think 'uncertainty
management'.
5. P3Ms need to be system thinkers.

28. Thanks for your interest
Questions & Answers
APM Systems Thinking SIG
https://www.apm.org.uk/community/systems-thinking-sig/