This presentation was done in late January 2014, however it is still relevant though the political situation in Thailand still remains unstable.The presentation is a short historical analysis of what have actually happened in Thai politics since the 1980's. It will bring some insights to the political turmoil that started in late 2013 and has not yet (29 April 2014) been solved.

1. 130 January 2014
Thai politics: It’s a street fight
The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s
consolidation of the rural vote
The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when
opposition parties were small and fractured
Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc that has
dominated Parliament until now
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2. 30 January 2014 2
 We chart the past 13
general elections in
Thailand to show the shifts
in power between the
major parties
 In the seven elections
from 1983 to 1996,
pre-Thaksin, about 11
parties other than the
Democrat Party contested
 This splintering of rural
MPs allowed the Democrats
and Bangkok voters the
ability to participate
 In 2001, Thaksin’s new
Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love
Thais) Party, arrived on the
scene and consolidated the
votes that had been going
to the splintered parties
The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s
consolidation of the rural vote
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand

3. 30 January 2014 3
 In the pre-Thaksin era
House of Representatives
within the Thai Parliament,
power shifted between
the smaller parties
 This meant that the
Democrat Party and Bangkok
voters were able to gain
substantial representation
 As Thaksin consolidated
the fractured parties, he was
able to dominate Parliament
 But he was a victim of his
own success and Thailand’s
winner-take-all mentality in
politics
 Unfortunately, such
domination to the exclusion
of the Democrat Party left it
with no hope of influence
inside the system
The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when
opposition parties were small and fractured
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand

4. 30 January 2014 4
 Between the post -2006-
coup attacks on Thaksin’s
legitimacy and his party’s
poor policy choices (e.g. the
rice-pledging scheme), his
party (now called Pheu Thai)
is vulnerable
 The Democrat Party has
maintained control of more
than 30% of seats in the
House, which shows that
its support base is strong
and stable
 In addition, the power
of smaller parties (e.g.
Bhumjaithai and Chart Thai
Pattana) is starting to rise and
hence could potentially swing
to either side
 At the polls, the Democrat
Party, with a good plan, could
attack its vulnerable
opponent
Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc
that has dominated Parliament until now
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand

5. 530 January 2014
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