Pop Fest 2014, Conference Book University College of London (UCL)

1. LONDON’S GLOBAL UNIVERSITY
CONFERENCE
BOOK
4TH AUGUST TO 6TH AUGUST

2. 1
Contents
Welcome Message from the Conference Committee ............................................................................2
Keynote Speaker Biographies .................................................................................................................3
PopFest 2014 Schedule...........................................................................................................................4
PopFest 2014 Programme and Abstracts ...............................................................................................7
Session 1 - Population health: social pathways and interventions.....................................................7
Session 2 - Population resilience in the context of risk ......................................................................9
Session 3 - Life course and life chances ............................................................................................11
Session 4 - Population movements: migration and identity.............................................................12
Session 5 - The spatial analysis of crime...........................................................................................14
Session 6 - Exploring trends in population subgroups......................................................................15
Session 7 - Using Big Data to study populations...............................................................................17
PopFest 2014 Sponsors.........................................................................................................................19
UCL Bloomsbury Campus Map..............................................................................................................20
Notes.....................................................................................................................................................21

3. Welcome Message from the Conference
Committee
Dear PopFest 2014 delegate,
It is with enormous pleasure that we welcome you to PopFest 2014, the 22nd Annual Postgraduate
Population Studies Conference, hosted by the UCL Department of Geography. PopFest exists to help
population researchers in the early stages of their academic careers develop their ideas and skills, as
well as gain inspiration from others from a variety of disciplines. Looking at the diversity and quality
of research showcased in the abstracts elsewhere in this booklet, we are confident this year’s
delegates will go on to greater things!
We are very lucky to be able to welcome some excellent keynote speakers to the conference.
Monday’s keynote will be given by Professor Emily Grundy, a previous President of the British
Society for Population Studies and former Secretary General and Treasurer of the International
Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Tuesday’s keynote will be given by Dr James Cheshire
and Dr Dan Lewis and will provide insight into their own population research, their postgraduate
experiences and potential career progression. Finally, the keynote onWednesday will be given by
Keith Dugmore MBE. Keith brings a commercial perspective to population studies and is involved
with the ESRC in engaging academia with retail companies. In addition to this, PopFest 2014 features
nearly 30 oral presentations in 7 sessions from you and the other delegates attending.
We would like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank everybody who has contributed towards
making PopFest 2014 possible. This includes a number of people from all over UCL and beyond, and
includes those who have provided us with help and advice, and those who have given up their time
voluntarily to help out over the course of the conference. Of course a special mention must go to our
sponsors: without them we couldn’t even consider holding such an event.
Most of all we’d like to thank you for supporting the conference with your attendance and your
enthusiasm.We were delighted to have received a high number of responses to the call to papers,
and believe the quality of submissions we received reflects the dynamism and vibrancy of
contemporary research into matters of population.
Finally, we hope that the experience of attending PopFest 2014 will whet your appetite for a 23rd
incarnation. Any attendees who think they’d like to take on the challenge and consider hosting the
conference at their institution next year should speak to one of the organising committee. We can
assure them that it has been a rewarding experience!
Kind Thanks,
Chris, Alistair, Guy, Kira and Jens
The PopFest 2014 Organising Committee
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4. 3
Keynote Speaker Biographies
Professor Emily Grundy
Emily is a Professor of Demography in the Department of Social Policy at the London School of
Economics. She is also Director of the National Centre for Research Methods PATHWAYs node which
investigates biosocial influences on health.
Most of Emily's research has been focussed on ageing. Her main interests are in families, households
and social support in later life; trends and differentials in health and disability, and the long term
consequences of partnership and parenting trajectories for health and well-being in later life.
Dr James Cheshire and Dr Dan Lewis
James and Dan both completed their PhDs a couple of years ago and are now at the start of their
careers in academia. James is now a lecturer at UCL and Dan is a Research Fellow at the London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Their joint keynote will cover the population related research they have undertaken, and their
personal experiences of completing a PhD and how they went about starting their current careers.
Keith Dugmore MBE
Keith is the Director of Demographic Decisions Ltd. and Demographics User Group. He is widely
respected within the demographics community and brings a commercial perspective to population
studies in the UK.
Keith set up Demographic Decisions in 1996, which provides impartial consultancy advice to users of
demographic data. In 1998 he also set up the Demographics User Group, whose objective is to
represent to government the needs of commercial users of its demographic statistics.
Keith was awarded anMBE in the latest New Year’s Honours List for services to UK business.

5. PopFest 2014 Schedule
Organiser | UCL Department of Geography
Venue | Room G07 · Pearson Building · UCL · Gower Street · LondonWC1E 6BT
Date | 4th to 6th August 2014
Monday, 4th August 2014
12.30 pm | Registration and lunch
1.45 pm |
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Welcome and introduction
Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London
2.00 pm |
Keynote – Population ageing and later life health: European
perspectives
Speaker: Prof Emily Grundy, Department of Social Policy, London
School of Economics and Political Science
3.00 pm | Coffee break
3.20 pm – 5.00 pm |
Session 1 – Population health: social pathways and
interventions
Chair: Jens Kandt, University College London
3.20 pm |
Obesity and friendship networks
Speaker: Andrea Apolloni, London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine
3.45 pm |
Virtual field trips: physically active lessons for kids
Speaker: Emma Norris, University College London
4.10 pm |
The Care Life Cycle Project and researching the use of Telecare to
support people with dementia
Speaker: Katherine Penny, University of Southampton
4.35 pm |
Imperative for innovation in combating HIV/AIDS beyond 2015:
growing evidence for community-based HIV screening
and prospects of pharmacy-based screening
Speaker: Opeyemi Akindele, University of Bedfordshire
5.00 pm |
Data quality issues with reporting sexual behaviours among
adolescents and young people
Speaker: Elsie Akwara, University of Southampton
5.30 pm |
Barbecue
Venue: UCL Main Quad

6. 5
Tuesday, 5th August 2014
9.30 am – 11.10 pm | Session 2 – Population resilience in the context of risk
Chair: Alexandra Gomes, London School of Economics
9.30 am |
RadPop: spatiotemporal profiling for vulnerable population
subgroups.
Speaker: Becky Martin, University of Southampton
9.55 am | A national coastal erosion vulnerability model for Scotland
Speaker: James Fitton, University of Glasgow
10.20 pm |
Gender inequalities and HIV infections in Uganda: Evidence from
multilevel modelling of population-based surveys
Speaker: Patrick Igulot, City University London
10.45 pm | Financial sustainability in transition countries
Speaker: Ayse Demir, University of Leicester
11.10 am | Coffee Break
11.30 am – 1.10pm | Session 3 – Life course and life chances
Chair: Jens Kandt, University College London
11.30 pm |
NEETs in 1971 - descriptive data from the England and Wales
Longitudinal Study
Speaker:Wei Xun, University College London
11.55 pm |
Clustering health-related behaviours and their association with
subjective health outcomes using two British cohort studies
Speaker: Claire Mawditt, University College London
12.20 am | Economic inactivity: a risk factor for later life cognitive decline?
Speaker: Alison Sizer, University College London
12.45 pm |
Victimisation of adults with autism and learning difficulties – a
systematic review
Speaker: Sam Mukhopadhyay, King’s College London
1.10 pm | Lunch
2.00 pm |
Keynote – Population, Postgraduate Experiences, and Career
Progress
Speakers: Dr James Cheshire, University College London and Dr
Daniel Lewis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
3.00 pm | Coffee break
3.20 pm – 5.00 pm | Session 4 – Population movements: migration and identity
Chair: Guy Lansley, University College London
3.20 pm |
Transnational families: an intergenerational perspective on issues
of culture and identity among Greek-Cypriot communities in
England
Speaker: Gina Kallis, Plymouth University
3.45 pm |
Household resilience among refugee and forced migrant Arabic
speaking families in the UK
Speaker: Hoayda Darkal, Plymouth University
4.10 pm | Economic crisis, out-migration and return from Spain
Speaker: Ana Sanchis, Queen Mary University of London
5.00 pm | LondonWalk
Guides: Dr Martin Zaltz Austwick and Dr Adam Dennett
7.00 pm | Dinner
Venue: Tas Turkish Restaurant, Bloomsbury

7. Wednesday, 6th August 2014
9.30 am – 11.10 am | Session 5 – The spatial analysis of crime
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Chair: Kira Kowalska, University College London
9.30 am | Fear of crime on transport
Speaker: Reka Solymosi, University College London
9.55 am |
Examining the spatio-temporal structure of public confidence in
the police
Speaker: DawnWilliams, University College London
10.20 am | Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistics (STSS) for crime prediction
Speaker: Monsuru Adepeju, University College London
10.45 am |
Mapping property crime and demographic factors – a developing
country perspective
Speaker: Faisal Umar, University College London
11.10 am | Coffee Break
11.30 pm – 1.10 pm | Session 6 – Exploring trends in population subgroups
Chair: Alistair Leak, University College London
11.30 am | Spatial variations of demographic change in England 2001-2011
Speaker: Nigel de Noronha, University of Manchester
11.55 pm | The New Output Area Classification
Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London
12.20 pm |
Variations in commuting behaviour by socio-demographic and
geographic characteristics of individuals
Speaker: Thomas Murphy, University of Leeds
12.45 pm | UK Census and Workplace Zones
Speaker: Robin Edwards, University College London
1.10 pm | Lunch
2.00 pm |
Keynote – The value of population analysis to commercial
companies
Speaker: Keith Dugmore MBE, Director of Demographic Decisions
Ltd. and Demographics User Group
3.00 pm | Coffee break
3.20 pm – 5.00 pm | Session 7 – Using Big Data to study populations
Chair: Chris Gale, University College London
3.20 pm |
Exploring the geography of the registered addresses of car
models through a bespoke car classification
Speaker: Guy Lansley, University College London
3.45 pm |
Using Twitter data as demographic data – towards a seamless
World Names Database
Speaker: Alistair Leak, University College London
4.10 pm |
UCL Master Projects – 4 short presentations
Juntao Lai, UCL: Investigating the spatio-temporal patterns of hot topics
generated from twitter data transmitted around London tube stations.
Nicholas Samson, UCL: Using smart meter data to determine energy efficiency
of customers' homes.
Yiran Wei, UCL: How open data resources can be used to define a composite
measure of Cultural Identity & Heritage for the UK population.
David Egginton, UCL: A quantitative comparative analysis of geodemographic
classifications and their potential application in the targeting of philanthropic
fundraising initiatives.
4.45 pm | Discussion
5.00 pm | Concluding remarks and conference close
Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London

8. PopFest 2014 Programme and Abstracts
Session 1 - Population health: social pathways and interventions
Obesity and friendship networks
Andrea Apolloni, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Achla Marathe, Virginia Tech, and
Zhengzheng Pan, Facebook Inc.
Obesity has become a global epidemic. The spread of obesity requires no physical proximity but may
be influenced by a close relationship with the transmitter. We use AddHealth Dataset to show that
friendship networks are important in building weight perception, setting weight goals and measuring
social marginalization. The analysis shows how does individual weight perception is formed and how
this can be used to inform youth health policies.
Email: andrea.apolloni@lshtm.ac.uk
Virtual field trips: physically active lessons for kids
Emma Norris, Dr Nicola Shelton, Dr Sandra Dunsmuir and Dr Oliver Duke-Williams University College
London, Emmanouil Stamatakis, University of Sydney
Although largely recognised to enhance learning outcomes; classroom technology currently helps
foster a sedentary school working environment in children. Little research has assessed educational
technology’s capacity to improve dwindling child activity levels via physically active classroom
sessions.With an inherent geographical basis, Virtual Field Trips (VFTs) via interactive whiteboards
are one teaching method with currently untapped potential as a physically active teaching tool. This
study aimed to assess the feasibility of a physically active VFT by assessing practical issues and user
evaluations. A pilot sample (n=85) were randomly assigned to a physically active or sedentary
version of the same developed Olympic-themed VFT. Findings show no detrimental effects of an
active versus sedentary VFT on learning outcomes. Active VFT students rated their session
significantly higher than sedentary pupils. Processes used in this feasibility study are evaluated,
leading to solutions and ideas for future physically active VFT research.
Email: emznorr@hotmail.com
The Care Life Cycle Project and researching the use of Telecare to support people with dementia
Katherine Penny, Professor Sally Brailsford and Professor Maria Evandrou, University of Southampton
This research is looking at the use of telecare to meet the social care needs of people with dementia
within the UK’s ageing population.
Dementia is not a single illness but a group of progressive symptoms that occur when the brain
becomes damaged by certain conditions, such as Alzheimer's disease. Symptoms include memory
loss, mood changes, communication difficulties and confusion; leading to increased dependency on
other people. The risk of developing dementia increases with age, affecting mostly people over the
age of 65. According to the Alzheimer’s Society there are currently around 820, 000 people living
with dementia in the United Kingdom; a figure that is set to rise to over one million by 2021. With
this in mind the UK government is keen to explore different options to meet the increasing demand
on social care services; one such option is: telecare.
Telecare equipment allows remote care by automatically sending a signal to a carer, community
alarm or monitoring service so that support can be called for when it is needed. Telecare can help
people with dementia to maintain their independence, delaying or even eliminating the need for
residential care.
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9. In order to examine telecare as a service option discrete event simulation (DES) is being used to
model the system, incorporating the facilitating and obstructive factors that influence telecare
uptake for people with dementia. The aim is to look the impact telecare has on residential care
admissions and therefore its ability to help people to remain living in their own homes.
Email: kep204@soton.ac.uk
Imperative for innovation in combating HIV/AIDS beyond 2015: growing evidence for community-based
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HIV screening and prospects of pharmacy-based screening
Opeyemi Akindele and Dr Anthony Farrant, University of Bedfordshire
Our research focuses on how HIV screening uptake might be improved for Black African migrants in
the United Kingdom (UK).
The UK is ranked 11th out of top 20 countries with the highest population of migrants in the world,
and second only to Germany in Europe (Hawkins, 2014; International Migration Report, 2002). After
London (36%), the South East region, which includes Luton, has the second highest proportion of its
population foreign born (11.7%), the UK average being 12% (ONS, 2008; Hawkins, 2014). While
international migration has positive impacts such as cultural enrichment and increased manpower
(Adepoju, 2007) one downside of human migration of interest is the spread of diseases. HIV
epidemic need be tackled among migrants from high prevalence countries and within the countries
themselves, if progress already made in less impacted countries must be sustained and taken
further. International migration is a key factor which affects the dynamics of global HIV epidemic and
a reasonable and significant control of HIV/AIDS nationally and globally largely depends on how it is
managed especially among migrants from high prevalence countries.
Consequently, it is pertinent to provide a health system and public health interventions that
guarantee improved HIV testing uptake and early diagnosis among migrants from SSA, the most
mobile region of the world but which, unfortunately, carries the highest HIV/AIDS burden both by
proportion and absolute numbers among regions of the world (UNAIDS, 2012).
Email: akindeleopeyemi@yahoo.com
Data quality issues with reporting sexual behaviours among adolescents and young people
Elsie Akwara, University of Southampton
Data quality during data collection and interviews may be affected in various ways, especially on
secretive and sensitive topics like sexual health and behaviours. This paper provides an overview of
the factors that impact on data quality on sexual behaviour among adolescents and young people. A
review of published literature was conducted to determine factors that affect data quality on sexual
behaviour among young people aged 15-24 years. The main factors affecting data quality include
poor comprehension of questions, recall bias, underreporting of socially sanctioned behaviour and
over-reporting of socially desirable behaviour, long questionnaires that result in boredom of
respondents, lack of privacy during interviews, and interviewing techniques. To ensure data quality
on sexual behaviour, a triangulation of methods need to be used in order to ensure consistency and
accuracy of information is reported.
Email: ea1g13@soton.ac.uk

10. Session 2 - Population resilience in the context of risk
RadPop: spatiotemporal profiling for vulnerable population subgroups.
Becky Martin, Professor David Martin and Dr Samantha Cockings, University of Southampton
Vulnerability is not uniform across populations, due to the differential impacts of age and gender,
and change in status over time due to hazard exposure.
Different demographic groups display unique spatiotemporal profiles and exhibit characteristic
spatial trends over hourly, daily and seasonal timescales. The ability to accurately estimate the
spatiotemporal profile of both exposed population and radiation hazard offers significant
improvements. Sophisticated spatiotemporal models exist for radiation dispersal, but there have not
been equivalent advances in modelling of population statistics. Previous models have represented
ambient populations by modelling day and night population distribution, but remain constrained by
spatial and temporal scale and administrative geography. This research develops the Population247
approach, which provides a generalised and extensible gridded spatiotemporal population surface
framework.
Population247 is applied to assess subgroup vulnerability to ionising radiation exposure during a
hypothetical nuclear emergency case study, at Her Majesties Naval Base (HMNB) Devonport,
Plymouth. This is the UK’s only refitting, refuelling and de-fuelling site for fleet (unarmed) nuclear-powered
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submarines. A population of 166,000 people live within 5km of the Devonport site and
could be at risk, if there were a nuclear emergency (PCC, 2013). This study examines the
spatiotemporal change in ionising radiation exposure during nuclear emergency for females, as a
subgroup that is physically more susceptible to health effects of exposure. The study also assesses
the likelihood of deterministic (immediate) health effects due to dose thresholds from declaration of
nuclear emergency across the first six hours of exposure, and considers the effectiveness of
sheltering and evacuation.
Email: becky.martin@soton.ac.uk
A national coastal erosion vulnerability model for Scotland
James Fitton and Jim Hansom, University of Glasgow, Alistair Rennie, Scottish Natural Heritage
Scotland has an extensive (ca. 18,500 km long) and highly varied coastline with approximately 20%
of the Scottish population and 25% of businesses located within 1 km of the coast. Along the
coastline areas of local erosion are known to exist, which impacts upon coastal assets and potentially
increase coastal flood risk. Despite this, little is known about where coastal erosion occurs on
national scales within Scotland. Additionally the socioeconomic impact of coastal erosion has not
been assessed and areas of potential high socioeconomic vulnerability to coastal erosion are
currently unknown.To address this knowledge shortfall this PhD research has produced a high
resolution (50 m cell size) national model of the underlying physical susceptibility of the coastline. To
compliment this, a coastal erosion vulnerability model has also been developed. The vulnerability is
modelled using a geodemographic database (ExperianMosaic Scotland) using eleven socioeconomic
indicators such as health, income, and housing density. The indicators are weighted using the Gini
Coefficient method utilised by Willis et al. 2010.
Combining these two datasets we can determine the coastal erosion risk by identifying the
households which are both physically susceptible to coastal erosion and possess enhanced
socioeconomic vulnerability. Key infrastructure, such as transport networks, power plants etc.,
which are potentially exposed to coastal erosion, can also be identified. These outputs will aid
coastal management within Scotland by identifying the areas where resources are most needed to
manage coastal erosion risk.
Email: j.fitton.1@research.gla.ac.uk

11. Gender inequalities and HIV infections in Uganda: Evidence from multilevel modelling of
population-based surveys
Patrick Igulot, City University London
Background
There are gender inequalities in HIV&AIDS. In Africa, more than 60 percent of people living with HIV
are women. The high vulnerability of women has previously been associated with poverty. However,
recent evidence has suggested that women’s vulnerability may be driven by wealth. This has
generated controversy as to whether it is poverty or wealth driving HIV infections in women. In this
research, we examine the relationship between wealth and poverty and vulnerability to HIV risk in
Uganda.
Methods
Multilevel binary logistic regression is used to model the relationship between poverty and wealth
and HIV positive status.Wealth is measured by a proxy of a HouseholdWealth Index. From the
index, five quintiles of lowest, second, middle, fourth, and highest are created. This analysis is based
on 39,766 individual cases with HIV test results and 887 clusters which were sampled in the Uganda
HIV/AIDS Indicators Survey conducted in 2004-05 and 2011. Results There is a positive relationship
between being HIV positive and being wealthy for women adjusted OR 1.36 [1.08–1.72], women
who reside in rural areas OR 1.51 [1.30–1.75], and those who live in urban areas OR 1.89 [1.48–2.41]
in comparison with men. In the analysis of trends, the gender-HIV association persisted. The
adjusted OR for women was 1.20 [1.01–1.41] in 2004-05 and 1.15 [1.00–1.32] in 2011, when
compared to men.
Conclusion and recommendation
Women are more vulnerable to HIV infection than men in Uganda. Urban women have 89 percent
higher risk than men, rural women have 51 percent higher risk than men, and wealthy women or
women living in wealthy households have 36 percent higher risk than men. To prevent HIV
infections, policies and strategies need to address gender-based and regional inequalities in wealth
and poverty.
Email: Patrick.Igulot.1@city.ac.uk
Financial sustainability in transition countries
Ayse Demir, University of Leicester
This paper aims to shed light on the role of financial development on the growth dynamics of
transition countries. Particularly, the impacts of several financial development indicators (in terms of
size and efficiency) on the income level in 25 transition economies and two subgroups with varying
intensities of socio-economic development are empirically examined. The countries of interest tend
to have weaker financial system in comparison with the advanced markets. Subgroups are formed
for 16 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) transition economies and 9 former Soviet Union (CIS)
members in order to conduct panel data estimations with a time period of 1990 - 2013. Findings,
clearly suggest that, improvements in the financial system (size measurements) are highly associated
with rising income levels for all country groups. Increase in liberalization of interest rates, private
credit and banking lending affect the income level in the CEE lower than in the CIS. According to
results, high interest rate spreads (efficiency indicator) negatively affect economic growth and
remains statistically significant even if size measurements are included in the regression for both
group of countries, indicating that an unsubstantial increase in the size of financial intermediation
does not affect growth unless it is also followed by banking efficiency developments and rising
competition in the banking sector.
Email: aud1@le.ac.uk
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12. Session 3 - Life course and life chances
NEETs in 1971 - descriptive data from the England andWales Longitudinal Study
Wei Xun, Rebecca Lacy, Nicola Shelton and Chris Marshall, University College London
The recent recession has highlighted the substantial scale of youth unemployment in the UK and
worldwide. Although it is assumed that for most young people, being a NEET is a temporary hiatus
and sometimes a necessary step in the transition from adolescence into adulthood and subsequent
financial independence, for some the disadvantages of economic inertia at this stage in the life
course can have long-term effects on their socio-economic outlook later on.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of being a NEET in 1971 has on a young person’s
future economic participation; hence, to what extent does a ‘shadow’ exist in socio-economic terms
in the UK. Using the data from the England and Wales Longitudinal Study (LS), we will identify NEETs
from a representative sample of 1% of the E&W census population aged 15-29 years in 1971, and
follow them for 10 and then 20 years to examine the differences in their destination employment
status and occupation compared with their non-NEET counterparts.
Email: weiwxun@gmail.com
Clustering health-related behaviours and their association with subjective health outcomes using
two British cohort studies
Claire Mawditt, UCL Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
Background: Research findings indicate that multiple health behaviours relate to one another and do
not co-occur within individuals by chance alone. Clustering methods have been used to identify the
associations between health behaviours. However, there is very little research investigating the
biological, psychological and social determinants of health behaviour clusters and the longitudinal
relationships between those clusters and health outcomes.
Aims: This study aims to identify the clustered patterns of four health related behaviours and their
relationship with subjective health outcomes over time. Research questions include: how do health
behaviours cluster together in adults born 12 years apart? How are latent health behaviour clusters
in mid-adulthood (age 33 or 34) and health outcomes 8-9 years later (age 42) associated? How do
biological, psychological and social factors across the lifecourse interrelate with clustering health
related behaviours and health outcomes in adulthood?
Methods: This study uses data from two British birth cohort studies: the 1958 National Child
Development Study (NCDS) and the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study (BCS70). The four health
behaviours are: smoking (never, ex, and current numbers of cigarettes per day), alcohol use
(quantity and frequency), diet (consumption frequency of 5 food groups), exercise (frequency).Two
subjective health outcomes will be included: self-rated health and mental health indicated by the
Malaise Inventory. The model also includes biological, psychological and social factors in childhood
and adulthood.
Latent Profile Analysis will be used to identify the clustered patterns of health behaviours in each
birth cohort study. Multivariate regression and path analysis will be used to identify the longitudinal
association between latent health behaviour clusters and subjective health outcomes. Biological,
psychological and social factors will be included in structural models, in order to estimate their effect
on the relationship between latent health behaviour clusters and subjective health outcomes.
Implications: The results of this study will contribute to both research and public health practice in
the area of health related behaviours. Identifying specific health behaviour clusters and the
association of these clusters with health outcomes will guide relevant policies and interventions that
can target homogeneous subgroups of the population.
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13. Email: claire.mawditt.11@ucl.ac.uk
Economic inactivity: a risk factor for later life cognitive decline?
Alison Sizer, UCL Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
This presentation provides an outline of PhD research study, currently in its first year, to examine
the association of non-employment with cognitive function and cognitive decline in members of the
MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), 1946 Birth Cohort, and English
Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). It will also examine if the different states a person is in when
economically inactive have differing associations with cognitive function and decline. The
presentation highlights previous research that has taken place, gaps in the research, the aims and
objectives of the study, and the methodology to be used. Data analysis is in the very early stages and
therefore preliminary findings will not be presented.
Email: a.sizer.11@ucl.ac.uk
Victimisation of adults with autism and learning difficulties – a systematic review
Sam Mukhopadhyay, King’s College London
Disability hate crime is a serious issue that has profound human cost to its victims and to society in
general. The seriousness and extent of disability hate crime – plus its causes and effects – have been
captured in a series of reports and publications by the Government and numerous third party
organisations, over the years. There is considerable interest in the topic.
The term, disability hate crime, is most commonly used within public bodies, including the police,
Crown Prosecution Service and local authorities. Yet there is no official definition to objectively
define it. The literature is currently very sparse in identifying and contextualising disability hate
crime and how victimisation occurs within the Autism and learning disabilities population.
This systematic review is an attempt to connect, consolidate and scrutinise the current academic
literature in the field of research related to studying aspects of victimisation and disability hate
crime. Of interest, but not exclusive, is to observe whether current data trends reflect a difference in
rates of victimisation of individuals with autism and LD in comparison to the general public. If there
are differences in rates, then what is currently in place to address the discrepancies? Additionally,
what networks or support are currently present to alleviate the experiences of the victims.
Additionally, recommendations will be made with regards to further research within the field.
Email: samyukta.mukhopadhyay@kcl.ac.uk
Session 4 - Population movements: migration and identity
Transnational families: an intergenerational perspective on issues of culture and identity among
Greek-Cypriot communities in England
Speaker: Gina Kallis, Plymouth University
This research aims to take an intergenerational perspective to explore whether cultures of home and
family influence the identities of individuals within Greek-Cypriot migrant families in the UK. This aim
is particularly necessary at a time when levels of migration have increased resulting in a number of
complex issues that migrants face in their everyday lives. There is growing acknowledgment across a
number of disciplines of the need to explore the everyday lives of migrants and processes of
transnationalism across all generations. Despite this acknowledgment, research on second and third
generation migrants and issues of their identity and belonging remain limited. In-depth interviews
will be held with three generations of Greek-Cypriot migrants living in two locations in the UK as well
as focus groups with the second and third generation. As well as exploring the ways in which
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14. intergenerational relations are formed within the families and the impacts these have on the
formation of individuals’ identities, intergenerational and gender differences will be investigated in
relation to personal values and expectations for the future. This research is particularly timely as
there is growing consensus within the discipline of Geography that ‘life course’ matters, yet
researchers often focus on the margins: namely the very old or the young. To overcome this
tendency, more relational geographies of age are needed and an exploration of how individuals
organise themselves in relation to others. Intergenerationality is a focal point of these more
relational geographies of age.
Email: gina.kallis@plymouth.ac.uk
Household resilience among refugee and forced migrant Arabic speaking families in the UK
Hoayda Darkal, Plymouth University
Conflicts and political changes affect society, families and individuals significantly. Waves of migrants
and refugees are much possibly generated as a result, and households in particular become
shattered. Yet, families try with much effort to reconstruct their lives in the new environment, which
shows different degrees of resilience. This issue has been facing millions of households since the
Arab Spring started in 2011. The UK represents one of the major destinations for Arab and Kurd
migrants and asylum seekers, who manage to escape the current chaos in their home countries.
Hence, the British society has become the ‘new home’ for many.
This research will be focusing on the way these families are being resilient and to what extent they
succeed in doing so. Household resilience will be studied in regards to the cultural, economic and
gender roles aspects. In addition, coping strategies and connections with who is left behind will be
investigated. Semi- structured interviews alongside with focus groups meetings are believed to be
the proper tools, in order to get the enquired data base. Results are expected to differ between
households, who are coming from different Arab countries. Furthermore, ethnic and religious
diversity might show variety of outcomes too.
Very few resilience studies have been done on household level and usually are focused on natural
hazards. Hence, this research would be helpful in widening such area of study. In addition, providing
up-to-date knowledge of the new residents will be helpful in drawing migration, social and economic
policy in the UK. Moreover, a better understanding of the post-conflict forced migrant families is
believed to be quite useful.
Email: hoayda.darkal@plymouth.ac.uk
Economic crisis, out-migration and return from Spain
Ana Sanchis, Queen Mary University of London
Economic crisis is having some consequences in demographic dynamics and social conditions in
Spain, especially for foreigners as one of the vulnerable collectives. In Spain, immigration increased
exponentially from the end of 20th century until 2010 reaching 12,22% of foreign population. Many
of them worked in the building sector and the housing bubble’s crisis has caused that the highest
unemployment rate for men from non-European countries, around 35-40%. Other social and
economic indicators also show us that the most affected by economic crisis are international
foreigners and European foreigners. Therefore, the migration balance in Spain became negative
from 2010 and around 85% of Spanish out-migrants weren’t born in Spain. The majority of
population who is migrating to Latin-American countries are returning to their born countries. USA is
the second destiny in the American continent to out-migrate from 2010 and population who decide
to migrate to other European countries choose UK, Germany and France as destinies.
Email: anagsanchis@gmail.com
13

15. Session 5 - The spatial analysis of crime
Fear of crime on transport
Reka Solymosi, Taku Fujiyama and Kate Bowers, University College London
Fear of crime has consequences independent of crime; people will often avoid areas and transport
modes they perceive as unsafe, reducing accessibility and sustainable transport mode choices.
Currently, fear of crime is measured by retrospective surveys, which provide an inaccurate measure
reflecting generalised worries, and aggregate geographic information about fear broadly and
statically to neighbourhoods based on respondents’ place of residence, ignoring other places they
may encounter fearful events. To gain a more accurate understanding of people’s everyday
experiences with fear of crime, an experience sampling survey method can be applied to a mobile
phone application that combines inbuilt sensor data capturing time and GPS position with
participants’ feelings of safety recorded by the survey. Data collected in this way reflects an insight
into people’s everyday experiences with fear of crime, and highlights specific hotspots in place and
time that could benefit from targeted interventions aimed at making people feel safer as they go
about their every-day journeys. Measuring fear of crime at such a micro scale spatially and
temporally provides an innovation in mapping subjective perceptions and experiences in the urban
environment.
Email: r.solymosi.11@ucl.ac.uk
Examining the spatio-temporal structure of public confidence in the police
Dawn Williams, Tao Cheng and James Haworth, University College London
Improving public confidence in the police is one of the most important issues for the Metropolitan
Police Service (MPS/Met). In fact, the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC) and the Met
have agreed to the goal of improving public confidence in the Met by 20% up to 75% by 2016.
However, the Met is currently not on track to achieving this target. Public confidence in the police is
a complex relationship with many constituent factors. Furthermore, levels of confidence vary
throughout geographical space and change over time. Improvement in the analysis of the MPS
Public Attitude Survey data can allow these increasingly complex patterns to be discovered. Classical
statistics assume that all observations are independent and identically distributed (iid). For spatial or
time series data this assumption is generally inappropriate. Local models (as opposed to global
models) are more likely to uncover meaningful relationships between the variables under
examination. A useful first step to formulating a local model is autocorrelation analysis.
Autocorrelation describes the similarity between observations as a function of the temporal, spatial
or spatio-temporal distance between them. Examining the underlying spatio-temporal
autocorrelation structure of public confidence is an important step toward modelling this intrinsic
variability in space and time.
Email: ucesdkw@live.ucl.ac.uk
14

16. 15
Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistics (STSS) for crime prediction
Monsuru Adepeju and Professor Tao Cheng, University College London
Allocating police resources proactively to areas of transiently elevated crime severity (emerging
hotspots) is an effective strategy to reduce crime (Short et al. 2009). However, the effectiveness of
this strategy depends on the capability of the hotspot detection method to provide adequate
warnings (tipping points) and systematic monitoring of the emerging hotspots. The use of space-time
kernel density estimation (STKDE) as a hotspot detection method has previously been limited to
visualisation of historical crime hotspots, which are then used to anticipate long-term police
interventions. This approach is considered less useful for predictive policing in which short-term
interventions are required in areas where a crime hotspot is rapidly emerging. This study considers
the application of STKDE for prospective hotspot detection, in which emerging crime hotspots are
identified before they reach their maximum level of severity.
In our approach we segment historical crime datasets into small temporal partitions (daily and
weekly), append the segmented dataset cumulatively while the STKDE of each cumulated dataset is
being carried out. The preliminary results obtained show that STKDE has the potentials to give
warnings and reveal emerging patterns in the crime dataset if implemented appropriately. This
approach is currently being validated by comparison with other existing detection methods such as
space-time scan statistics (STSS).
Email: monsuru.adepeju.11@ucl.ac.uk
Mapping property crime and demographic factors – a developing country perspective
Faisal Umar, University College London
Central to the process of most spatial analysis of crime are two types of data: the crime incidents
dataset - typically obtainable from police departments, and demographic characteristics that are
usually drawn from population censuses.Where such datasets do not exist or are extremely difficult
to obtain, it becomes challenging to understand and provide empirical explanations as to why crime
occurs at certain places but not in others. This presentation describes the processes involved in the
mapping and analysis of crime incidents and the recording of key environmental and social
indicators of crime in Kaduna metropolis - Nigeria. This kind of study is important in the process of
analyzing crime at place particularly in developing countries such as Nigeria where spatially
referenced crime and population datasets are either non-existent or not accessible.
Email: f.umar.12@ucl.ac.uk
Session 6 - Exploring trends in population subgroups
Spatial variations of demographic change in England 2001-2011
Nigel de Noronha, University of Manchester
Between 2001 and 2011 the number of people aged 65 or over has grown by 16% to 8.6 million
people in England. The growing number of older people led to new policies on ageing during this
decade. These policies promoted independence and well-being in contrast to discourses of
dependence and deficit. They identified the need for integrated public service approaches to
encourage this policy transformation. This paper explores evidence of changes to living
arrangements of older people from the censuses for 2001 and 2011.
The paper explores the geography of change for people aged over 65. Between 2001 and 2011 the
proportion of older people living by themselves fell slightly to 31%; the number living in couples
increased slightly to 54% and the number of older people living in households with younger people

17. increased by more than four times to nearly 2 million. The number of older people from most ethnic
minority backgrounds grew faster than theWhite British group. There were one million more
women aged 65 or over than men. More than 60% of households where all residents were aged 65
or over had someone living with a limiting long-term illness. These overall changes mask significant
spatial variation. This paper explores the variation, suggests a number of potential explanations and
identifies areas for future research.
Email: nigel.denoronha@manchester.ac.uk
The New Output Area Classification
Chris Gale, University College London
The 2011 Area Classification for Output Areas (2011 OAC) is a new open and free geodemographic
classification of the UK based on 2011 UK Census data. The 2011 OAC, created in partnership with
the Office for National Statistics (ONS), supersedes the 2001 Area Classification for Output Areas
(2001 OAC) to provide the most current open geodemographic view of the UK.
The 2001 OAC was widely used in academia, local government and by commercial organisations, but
its reliance on data from the 2001 UK Census has led to a perceived degradation of reliability over
time and a decline in users. The release of the 2011 UK Census data provided the opportunity to
create a 2011 OAC which could address some of the acknowledged flaws of the 2001 OAC, such as
the methods used for data handling, to create a more robust methodology. The publication of this
methodology with accompanying documentation, in addition to utilising open-source software,
guarantees the reproducibility of the 2011 OAC; with an additional benefit of the methodology being
able to act as a template for future bespoke open geodemographic classifications. These
methodological advances and adoption of open source software mean the 2011 OAC can be
considered a step forward for open geodemographics in the UK.
Email: chris.gale@ucl.ac.uk
Variations in commuting behaviour by socio-demographic and geographic characteristics of
individuals
Thomas Murphy, Professor John Stillwell and Dr Lisa Buckner, University of Leeds
Commuting to work is an activity that is carried out with regularity by the vast majority of individuals
in employment. It is, therefore, a very important part of the routine of daily or weekly life for most
of the working population. However, subgroups of this population travel to work over different
distances and use different modes of transport. It is highly unlikely that the commuting distance or
mode of a young, black female, with a limiting long-term illness living in the relatively poor North
East of England, for example, will be the same as that of an older, white, healthy male living in the
relatively wealthy South East of England. Therefore, commute distance and mode of transport vary
by sociodemographic and geographic variables and it is the variation that this paper seeks to
identify, analyze and understand.
The analysis uses microdata from the 1991 and 2001 Census Samples of Anonymised Records for
England and Wales and adopts Binary Logistic Regression as the methodology to quantify the main
effects of, and interaction effects between, a series of sociodemographic and geographic predictors,
including age, sex, ethnicity, health, childcare, occupation and regional of usual residence, on the
binary response variable. Models are estimated for both 1991 and 2001 samples to establish where
changes have taken place during the 1990s. Ultimately, the findings will inform policy suggestions
for implementation by regional or local governments or other organizations with responsibility for
supplying and maintaining transport networks.
16

18. Email: jh08tm@leeds.ac.uk
UK Census andWorkplace Zones
Robin Edwards, University College London
The 'modern' UK census is now into its 3rd century, and yet continues to evolve to accommodate the
changing demands of government, bureaucracy, society and academia. A significant recently
development has been the introduction ofWorkplace Zones as a product of the 2011 Census, a new
system of geographical divisions based on respondents' work locations. The result is a fresh series of
demographic and economic datasets with higher central urban resolution. This development is
discussed in historical and modern contexts, and its implications evaluated from a geospatial
methodology perspective.
Email: robin.edwards@ucl.ac.uk
Session 7 - Using Big Data to study populations
Exploring the geography of the registered addresses of car models through a bespoke car
classification
Guy Lansley, University College London
In 2013 there were 29.2 million registered cars in Great Britain, and the 2011 UK Censuses confirmed
that almost 75% of households had access to at least one car or van. Despite this, the DVLA’s
database of car model registrations remains underexplored as an indicator of household
characteristics.
Car ownership itself has been frequently considered as a census proxy variable for affluence in the
past. However, this is now a dated interpretation as car ownership has become more widespread
across society and the value of automobiles range considerably, additionally ownership is influenced
by several factors asides from disposable income. Understanding the geography of different car
models is likely be more informative of local population characteristics as the choice of model
purchase is dependent on several factors, notably including the cost and the purpose of the vehicle.
In partnership with the DFT and the DVLA, a car classification was produced which grouped every car
model registered in Great Britain in 2011 into 10 distinctive categories based on the key
characteristics of the vehicle. The DVLA then made the total number of registered cars for each
classification category available at a small are geography (LSOA) to be analysed. The dataset was
then explored to reveal distinctive spatial patterns exerted between car model types at the
neighbourhood level. The findings were then compared to key 2011 Census variables and 2011
house price data from the Land Registry to understand how social standing and life stage relate to
patterns in car consumption between neighbourhoods.
Email: g.lansley@ucl.ac.uk
Using Twitter data as demographic data – towards a seamless World Names Database
Alistair Leak, University College London
Population registers fill a fundamental role in much population research forming the backbone of
many demographic datasets and providing a unique viewpoint into population structure. Whilst
much research analyses such registers in national isolation, there is a shift in academia towards
hybrid international registers composed of data from multiple sources. This paper sets out to
address the limitations of one such register, theWorld Names Database which is presently
representative of two Billion of the Earth’s population. A synthesis of electoral roll and telephone
directory data for 26 countries, the database is limited in its expansion by availability of publically
available national population registers. Subsequently, this study sets out to develop a series of proxy
17

19. registers based on geo-located Twitter data. Analysing a corpus of over 1 Billion Tweets, the study
seeks to infer key identity components based of users screen names and location histories;
specifically forename, surname and residential location. Prior to the deployment of the
methodology, its utility is demonstrated against conventional data sources of known provenance;
specifically the UK Electoral Roll and the Spanish Telephone Directory. Further, the prospects and
pitfalls of this approach to constructing population registers are assessed. The study concludes with
an assessment of social media based population registers as a proxy for traditional registers and
demonstrates potential applications of such data.
Email: a.leak.11@ucl.ac.uk
18

20. 19
PopFest 2014 Sponsors
PopFest 2014 would not have been possible were it not for the financial support of a handful of key
sponsors who are listed below.
Demographic User Group, http://www.demographicsusergroup.co.uk/
UCL Department of Geography, http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/
Population Geography Research Group, http://popgeog.org/
UCL Security Doctoral Research Centre, http://www.ucl.ac.uk/secret/homepage/
UCL DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

21. UCL Bloomsbury Campus Map
20
UCL Pearson Building
(Please use the main entrance. This is located directly to your left as you enter the Main
Quad from Gower Street)
Nearest London Underground Stations
Euston Square: Metropolitan Line, Circle Line, Hammersmith and City Line
Warren Street: Victoria Line, Northern Line (Charing Cross Branch)
Euston: Victoria Line, Northern Line (Charing Cross Branch and Bank Branch)

22. Notes
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26. Front cover: ‘Population Lines’ © James Cheshire
Website
www.ucl.ac.uk/popfest-2014
Email
popfest2014@ucl.ac.uk
Twitter
@PopFest2014