The document discusses hydropolitics in the Nile River Basin. It summarizes the geography and hydrology of the Nile, including the different countries it flows through and their contributions to water flows. It also discusses the historical tensions between upstream and downstream countries over control, allocation and development of the river's waters. More recently, cooperation efforts have emerged such as the Nile Basin Initiative, but disagreements over water rights and allocations remain an ongoing challenge.

1. HYDROPOLITICS IN THE NILE BASIN Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute Lecture at Aalto University Helsinki - Finland 7 November 2011

2. The River(s) Contribitution to Nile flows Annual (average) Flood period (average) Eastern Nile Basins (from Ethiopia) Blue Nile 59% 68% Tekezze/ Atbara 14% 5% Baro-Akobo/ Sobat 13% 22% Total Ethiopia 86% 96% Equatorial Nile Basin White Nile 14% 5%

3. The Hydrology The Topography Blue Nile source White Nile source Ethio-Sudan border Egypt’s territory

4. The land/waterscapes Egypt

5. The land/waterscapes North Sudan Southern Sudan

6. The land/waterscapes Ethiopia

7. Lake Victoria The land/waterscapes Uganda Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Burundi D.R. Congo

8. The Water availability/utilisation 84 bcm / average Little utilisation Little utilisation How much water are Egypt and Sudan utilising?

9. The 1959 Agreement Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters Current water utilisation of the Nile waters ?

10. The storage capacity

11. The riparians

12. EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA + Equatorial states Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Power asymmetries

13. The enduring conflict Control Contribution Utilisation Donwstream Upstream Allocation

14. Equitable utilisation Development Benefits- Sharing Towards Cooperation Donwstream Upstream

15. Hydropolitics Past Since mid-1990s (HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION: Development opportunities Basin-wide approach Investment projects Legal negotiations Donors support CONFLICT: Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments Securitisated hydropolitics

16. The cooperation process since 1999 1997-2007 2012!?

18. Nile Basin Initiative GOAL Benefit-Sharing Paradigm

19. NBI Operational Structure

20. NBI ‘philosophy’

21. NBI Programs

22. NBI Donors

23. The legal negotiations  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  Prior use  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  “ New water”  No-harm Principle River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  New uses  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  Investment  Equitable and reasonable utilisation Principle  River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO ? DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANS

24. 2007-2010: The deadlock NILE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT [...] Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State ." Egypt/Sudan proposal: “ (...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.” [...] No water allocations included in the agreement

25. 2010: The big challenge! POTENTIAL Collective bargaining power Challenge/Pressure Balance of power Changes in the status quo Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation) LIMITS Agreement without Egypt? Implementation challenges Egypt’s response Geopolitics Donors behaviour Access to investment

26. Future scenarios (as per 2009) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

27. Meanwhile...

28. Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changing realpolitik : new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... ‘ Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterism Unilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development

29. Hydropolitics pre-2011 Official ‘ dyad’ UpstreamBloc

30. 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin

31. More tomorrow... [email_address]