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Project Management C3 -project_selection_and_portfolio_management
1.
2.
Project Selection Screening models
help managers pick winners from a pool of projects. Screening models are numeric or nonnumeric and should have: Realism Capability Flexibility Ease of use Cost effectiveness Comparability 3-2 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
3.
Screening & Selection
Issues • • • • Risk – unpredictability to the firm Commercial – market potential Internal operating – changes in firm operations Additional – image, patent, fit, etc. All models only partially reflect reality and have both objective and subjective factors imbedded 3-3 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
4.
Approaches to Project
Screening • Checklist model • Simplified scoring models • Analytic hierarchy process • Profile models • Financial models 3-4 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
5.
Checklist Model A checklist
is a list of criteria applied to possible projects. Requires agreement on criteria Assumes all criteria are equally important Checklists are valuable for recording opinions and encouraging discussion 3-5 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
6.
Simplified Scoring Models Each
project receives a score that is the weighted sum of its grade on a list of criteria. Scoring models require: agreement on criteria agreement on weights for criteria a score assigned for each criteria Score (Weight Score) Relative scores can be misleading! 3-6 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
7.
Analytic Hierarchy Process The
AHP is a four step process: 1. Construct a hierarchy of criteria and subcriteria 2. Allocate weights to criteria 3. Assign numerical values to evaluation dimensions 4. Scores determined by summing the products of numeric evaluations and weights Unlike the simple scoring model, these scores can be compared! 3-7 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
8.
Profile Models Show risk/return
options for projects. X6 Maximum X2 Desired Risk R i s k X4 X3 X1 Efficient Frontier Minimum Desired Return 3-8 X5 Criteria selection as axes Return Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Rating each project on criteria
9.
Financial Models Based on
the time value of money principal • • • • Payback period Net present value Internal rate of return Options models All of these models use discounted cash flows 3-9 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
10.
Payback Period Determines how
long it takes for a project to reach a breakeven point Investment Payback Period Annual Cash Savings Cash flows should be discounted Lower numbers are better (faster payback) 3-10 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
11.
Payback Period Example A
project requires an initial investment of $200,000 and will generate cash savings of $75,000 each year for the next five years. What is the payback period? Year Cash Flow 0 ($200,000) ($200,000) 1 $75,000 ($125,000) 2 $75,000 ($50,000) 3 $75,000 Divide the cumulative amount by the cash flow amount in the third year and subtract from 3 to find out the moment the project breaks even. Cumulative $25,000 3 3-11 25, 000 2.67 years 75, 000 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12.
Net Present Value Projects
the change in the firm’s stock value if a project is undertaken. Ft NPV I o (1 r pt )t where Ft = net cash flow for period t Higher NPV values are better! R = required rate of return I = initial cash investment Pt = inflation rate during period t 3-12 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
13.
Net Present Value
Example Should you invest $60,000 in a project that will return $15,000 per year for five years? You have a minimum return of 8% and expect inflation to hold steady at 3% over the next five years. Year 0 1 Net flow Discount -$60,000 1.0000 $15,000 0.9009 2 3 4 0.8116 0.7312 0.6587 5 3-13 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 0.5935 NPV The NPV column -$60,000.00 total is negative, $13,513.51 so don’t invest! $12,174.34 $10,967.87 $9,880.96 $8,901.77 -$4,561.54 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
14.
Internal Rate of
Return A project must meet a minimum rate of return before it is worthy of consideration. t ACFt Higher IRR values are IO n 1 (1 IRR )t better! where ACFt = annual after tax cash flow for time period t IO = initial cash outlay n = project's expected life IRR = the project's internal rate of return 3-14 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
15.
Internal Rate of
Return Example A project that costs $40,000 will generate cash flows of $14,000 for the next four years. You have a rate of return requirement of 17%; does this project meet the threshold? Year Net flow Discount NPV 0 -$40,000 1.0000 -$40,000.00 1 $14,000 0.9009 $12,173.91 2 $14,000 0.8116 $10,586.01 3 $14,000 0.7312 $9,205.23 4 $14,000 0.6587 $8,004.55 This table has been calculated using a discount rate of 15% -$30.30 The project doesn’t meet our 17% requirement and should not be considered further. 3-15 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
16.
Options Models NPV and
IRR methods don’t account for failure to make a positive return on investment. Options models allow for this possibility. Options models address: 1. Can the project be postponed? 2. Will future information help decide? 3-16 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
17.
Project Portfolio Management The
systematic process of selecting, supporting, and managing the firm’s collection of projects. Portfolio management requires: decision making, prioritization, review, realignment, and reprioritization of a firm’s projects. 3-17 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
18.
Keys to Successful Project
Portfolio Management Flexible structure and freedom of communication Low-cost environmental scanning Time-paced transition 3-18 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
19.
Problems in Implementing Portfolio
Management Conservative technical communities Out of sync projects and portfolios Unpromising projects Scarce resources 3-19 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
20.
3-20 Copyright © 2010
Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
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