3. Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years 17 nuclear power plants worth of solar peak power shipped in 2010 5 nuclear plants brought online in 2010 Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant
4. $100 1976 $50 Average Price [USD 2005/W] $5 2010 $1 $0 100 1,000 10,000 Produced Silicon PV Modules (Global) $60.00 Solar Industry Growth has Produced Steadily Falling Prices $1.50 Due to Polysilicon Shortage Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011 Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; 2011 numbers based on current market data
5. Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing Projected price increase 2.5% per year Projected price increase 1% per year To date Average Retail Price of Electricity Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
6. Technology and Adoption Price Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory US cell phone subscribers has risen from 5.3 million to 285 million in 15 years
7. Solar Price Drops Mirror High Tech Consumer Goods Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale Cell Phones Digital Cameras with plan DVD Players
12. Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear $0.139 $0.129 Cents per Kilowatt Hour $0.095 $0.07 Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids 1 GW Plant Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years. Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant: < 1 year The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct. Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
13. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today $0.238 $0.226 $0.139 Cents per Kilowatt Hour $0.086 250 MW Gas CT Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants. Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
14. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today $0.238 $0.226 $0.139 Cents per Kilowatt Hour $0.086 Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids 250 MW Gas CT Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants. Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
15. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive $0.139 $0.109 $0.08 Cents per Kilowatt Hour $0.07 $0.07 Coal Plant 5% 500 MW Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
16. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive $0.139 $0.109 $0.08 Cents per Kilowatt Hour $0.07 $0.07 Coal Plant 5% 500 MW Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
17. Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand Peak Summer Load 28 26 24 22 20 18 Tracking PV at Full Power Summer Time Of Use Rates Retail Utility Rates, cents per kwh Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation
18. Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010 Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
19. U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
20. California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years 2009 Utility RFO submittals: 30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals: 45 GW (expected) 4.4 GW under contract below the cost of energy from new natural gas 1 California could be 20% solar by 2020 1 Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California. Source: Greentech Media, February 2011
21. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages Completed US PV Projects Completed US PV Projects Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States Global Installed 26 GW Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
22. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages Completed US PV Projects 1 Equal to 12 nuclear plants in 4 years Over the next 4 years 12GW 1 Note: Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
23. Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuel and Solar [ELI, SEIA] $72.4 billion $2 billion [SEIA, Blumenauer, Treasury] $40 billion $7-10 billion Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011 “Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks”Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
24. $72 bn Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase : Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
25. Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce Significant Price Declines $2 bn Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
26. Solar Creates Jobs Average Total Jobs/Megawatts 7x more jobs than coal Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
27. Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources Added water if gas source is Fracking or Tower (wetcooled) Source: Adapted from DOE 2010, Table 8.3
28. Solar is Ready Now Solar 17 GW Wind 5 GW Coal 6.7 GW Natural Gas 5.5 GW Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide 2010 All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US 2010 Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural Gas includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT as 1.5 GW.)
29. US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets SPAIN Enough land area to power the whole country GERMANY Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy
30. US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth 2010 Global Supply/Demand Supply 17.4-GWp Demand Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media
34. SmartgridTWH/yr Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S. Sources: McKinsey Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP
35. Public Support for Clean Energy 91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress 85% of Republicans 89% of Independents 97% of Democrats Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
36. Solar Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear
39. Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun New York City Blackout Summer 2003 Economic lossesin NYC alone exceeded $1bn. Losses were between$7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day Load (GW) Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003
42. Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011 BP Deep Water Horizon Oil SpillApril 2010 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarch 2011 Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in San Bruno, CASeptember, 2010 Upper Big Branch Coal Mine DisasterApril 2010
