The document summarizes a meeting of the Group on Research Program (GRP) on Climate Change held on April 5, 2011 in Nairobi. The GRP focuses on adaptation and mitigation research related to climate change impacts on agroforestry systems. Key areas of research include impact assessment, adaptation strategies, and mitigation approaches such as carbon sequestration. Ongoing projects were also presented that examine topics like climate analogues, vulnerabilities, and greenhouse gas fluxes.

1. ICRAF BOT Meeting
ICRAF BOT Meeting
Nairobi, 5 April 2011
GRP on Climate Change
GRP on Climate Change
Outlook 2011
Henry Neufeldt
On behalf of the whole GRP5 team

2. Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change
GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to
climate variability and change
GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to
enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change
• Impact Assessment
• Downscaling climate models and development of climate analogues
• Climate impacts on agroforestry species pollinators vectors and diseases
Climate impacts on agroforestry species, pollinators, vectors and diseases
• Impacts on economic activities
• Adaptation research
• Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies
• Improving adaptive capacity (e.g. through agroforestry)
• Limits of adaptation and innovative risk management strategies
• Mitigation research
• Using RES and other approaches for climate change mitigation
• Development of (more) sustainable biofuel production systems (e.g. charcoal)
p ( ) p y ( g )
• Assessment of GHG fluxes from different soils and LU systems

3. Key Successes
Plants from temperate and cold
climates may delayed in their spring
phases due to later fulfilment of
phases due to later fulfilment of
chilling requirements in warm winters.
Continued warming due to climate
change may strengthen this effect and
change may strengthen this effect and
attenuate or even reverse the
observed advancing trends in spring
p
phenology.gy

4. Key Successes

5. Key Successes
ey Successes

6. Key Successes
K S

7. Key Successes
Climate analogues
Cli t l

8. Key Successes

9. ICRAF is one of the organizers of the 1st and 2nd
national CC Adaptation conference in the
Philippines
9

10. GRP 5 workshop on 3‐4 September

11. List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts
•Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT)
•Secular evolution of climate in circum‐atlantic regions and responses of eco‐lacustrine sustems (ESCARSEL)
•Rungwe Environmental Science Observatory Network (RESON)
•Opportunity Cost of Different Land Use Options to Promote Agroforestry, Carbon and Biodiversity Assets: Case Study in Xishuangbanna
•Coping, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Drought in Yunnan, Southwest China
•Understanding Vulnerability of the Poor Mountain Farmers and Their Adaptation to Climate Variability and Socio‐economic Stressors in Southwest China
•Parkland trees and livelihoods: adapting to climate change in the West African Sahel
•Wood quality and carbon‐neutral fuelwood systems of native tree/shrub species in natural populations in the West African Sahel
W d li d b lf l d f i /h b i i l l i i h W Af i S h l
•National REDD network of Vietnam
•Rewards for, Use of and shared investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services schemes (RUPES), phase II
•Agroforestry for Climate change Adaptation in Vietnam and Kenya ‐ Local and Scientific knowledge for Option Development
•Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses‐ REALU (Phase II)
•Toward a biodiverse rubber estate: Quick biodiversity survey of Bridgestone Sumatra Rubber Estate
•Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I‐REDD)
•Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I REDD)
•Strategies to Use Biofuel Value Chains in Sub‐Saharan Africa to Respond to Global Change (Better‐iS)
•Pro poor rewards for environmental services in Africa (PRESA)
•Resilient Agro‐landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (ReACCT)
•Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel (Cseq Sahel)
•Carbon assessment in robusta shade coffee systems of Uganda (‘Carbon Coffee’)
•Adaptation of Land‐use to Climate Change in sub‐Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35
Adaptation of Land use to Climate Change in sub Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35
•Accountability Local Level Initiative to Reduce Emission from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI)
•Encouraging tree planting for carbon sequestration in Malawi
•Crop insurance scheme and adaptation to climate change in the Shire river basin Malawi
•Bioenergy Provision within Agroforestry Systems in East Africa
•Analysis of the effects of inter‐annual variation in rainfall and occurrence of extreme events on water use efficiency by crops in Agroforestry
•Climate analogues: A flexible and powerful web‐based tool for identifying and visualizing climate analogues
•Power Relations and REDD: unpacking ‘carbon rights’ and addressing the question of legality in Indonesia
•Fair and efficient and Sustainable Emission Reduction from Land Use in Indonesia (FESERLUI)
•A Study of Carbon Footprint of Indonesian Palm Oil Production
•Forests and Climate in the Asia Pacific Region
•Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Costal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines
•Feasibility of REDD mechanisms in the case of the East Usambaras, Tanzania
•Sumatran orangutan habitat ecosystem services assessment and opportunity cost analysis
S h bi i d i l i
•Rewards for Use of and Shared Investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services (RUPES) – Kalahan, Philippines
•Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific
•Carbon Mitigation Potential of REDD in the Philippines: Will it make a Difference in Financing Forest Development?
•Overcoming Barriers of Smallholder Forestry Carbon Development in the Philippines
•Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia
•Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA)
•Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA)
•Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement, Monitoring and Modeling (CBP:MMM)
•Enabling small holders to improve their livelihoods and benefit from carbon finance
•The COMART FOUNDATION West Kenya Project 2010 Impact Assessment
•Biochar inoculants for enabling smallholder agriculture (BREAD)

12. Lead partners in ongoing and new projects

13. New opportunities
New grants
• Care project: Making carbon finance work for the poor
• BREAD project: GHG fluxes and biochar
• MICCA project: Mitigation of climate change in agriculture
p j g g g
• CCAFS funding for GHG flux measurements in western Kenya
New proposals
• BMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast Asia
BMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast Asia
• ESPA proposal on ecosystem services in coffee agroforestry landscapes in East Africa
• Finnish Biocarbon proposal in western Africa
• Comart proposal on ABCD in western Kenya
Comart proposal on ABCD in western Kenya
• NSF application on plant physiology and stable isotopes for optimization of wood
production

14. Integration and collaboration with CRPs
CRP7: Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
• CCAFS scientists at ICRAF: Patti Kristjanson, Moushumi Chaudhury, Michael Misiko
• CCAFS workshops in Mexico and Bonn (upcoming)
• CCAFS support for research:
• GHG fluxes (Matthias; new measurements)
• Care project
• Gender and climate change
• Household and village baselines
CRP6.4: Climate change adaptation and mitigation in ‘Forests Trees and Agroforestry’
• Involvement in proposal writing
• Meeting in May to develop logframe
Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4
Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4
• Planned meeting in early June with participation of ICRAF, CCAFS and CRP6.4 staff

15. Results from CCAFS work in western Kenya
Changes in Soil Carbon (from Quickbird image) and Number of
Hunger Months per Household: Lower Nyando Block, western Kenya
Most of our households
on soils of poor fertility;
Those on higher fertility
soils still food insecure in
a ‘normal’ rainfall year

16. Constraints / risks
• Adaptation / vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist
Adaptation / vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist
• Need to be able to effectively assess above‐ground biomass requires
hiring a new natural scientist
hiring a new natural scientist
• CCAFS and CRP6.4 consume too much coordination and administration
in relation to the benefits
in relation to the benefits
• High fluctuation of funds for GHG flux measurements
• Cost intensive
• Sub‐optimal methodology
• No champion to lead the research
• Diffi lt i t
Difficult integration across regions
ti i
• Benchmark sites
• Agree on consistent measurement approaches for key concepts

17. ¡¿ Thanks for a future !?

18. Annual mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)

19. Annual mean precipitation anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)

20. Possible climate change impacts (depending on trajectory)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007;
Mitigation Baseline van Vuuren et al., 2010)

21. Contributions to climate change
Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently
A i lt f t dl d h tl
responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions

22. Projection of medium‐high climate change and variability
In one way or another …
2060s
61-90) °C
observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
Temperatur anomal (wrt 196
2003
re ly
… we will adapt to climate change

23. Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe
15.0 3.0
2.0
Meter)
10.0
Real GDP growth (% )
%
Varia bility in Rainfall (M
1.0
10
5.0
0.0
R
-1.0
0.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
-2.0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
R
-5.0
Real GDP grow th (%) -3.0
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0
-10 0 -4.0
-4 0
Years
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

24. The cross‐cutting agenda of Climate Change research at ICRAF
Developing policies and incentives fo
or
multifunctional landscapess with trees that
GRP6
provide environ
nmental ser rvices
e.g. Climate Go
overnance; Institution
ns; Policy
Climate Change impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Impro
oving the a
ability of far
rmers,
GRP5
ecosy
ystems andd governme ents to cope with
climate change
Regional context: 6 ecoregions
e.g. V
Vulnerabili
ity assessm
ment; CC im
mpacts
Reducing risks to land health and targeting
agrof
foestry inte
erventions t
to enhancee land
GRP4
produ
uctivity
e.g. Carbon seq
questration
n in landsca
apes
Impro
oving tree‐product marketing fo
or
GRP3
smallholders
e.g. Certificatio
on, index‐in
nsurance
Maximmizing on‐f
farm produuctivity of t
trees
and a
agroforestry
y systems
GRP2
e.g. Resilience of differen
nt AF system
ms
Dome estication, utilization and conservation
GRP1
of sup
perior agro
oforestry ge ermplasm
e.g. Impacts of
f CC on species distrib
bution

25. Key Successes
Trees on farms: Tackling the triple challenge of
mitigation, adaptation and food security
mitigation, adaptation and food security
Trees on farms address
Trees on farms address
climate change mitigation
and adaptation, and food
and adaptation, and food
security by storing carbon,
buffering against climate‐
related impacts and providing
additional income through
tree‐based products
tree based products

26. Key Successes
The Carbon Benefits Project aims to
provide a cost‐effective end‐to‐end
estimation and support system for
showing carbon benefits in GEF and
potentially other natural resource
management projects
management projects
The system will be applicable to a
wide range of soils, climates and land
wide range of soils climates and land
uses

27. How GRP5 interfaces with the regions
Project for the Prediction and
Evaluation of Climate Change’s
g
Impact on Agroforestry Systems in Climate Change
the Peruvian Amazon and Adaptation
through best
Ecuadorian Andean Regions
d i d i practices in the
Morogoro Region
Millet production is enhanced due to the Faidherbia albida
in the fields
What kind of relationship is needed or useful?
Wh ki d f l i hi i d d f l?

28. Key Successes
Global survey of REDD projects and survey of
Africa s biocarbon experience
Africa’s biocarbon experience
The current patterns of REDD
investments across the tropics will miss
important opportunities to maximize
emissions reductions. Investments in
emissions reductions. Investments in
REDD demonstration projects,
particularly in Africa, should be
increased, in order to generate practical
increased in order to generate practical
lessons for future REDD implementation
and to enhance participation in
mainstream carbon markets
mainstream carbon markets