My poster at the 2008 International System Dynamics Conference, Athens.

1. Product Diffusion in ‘the Long Tail’
Andreas Größler*
‘The Long Tail’: Availability of (quasi) indefinite product choice because of
no or only marginal storage and distribution costs (Anderson, 2004)
Research questions:
1. Diffusion patterns of goods when ‘long tail’ economics are present?
2. Managing product portfolios in the ‘long tail’?
Conceptual model and simulation:
(symbolic representation)
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, a.groessler@fm.ru.nl
1 M
750,000
500,000
250,000
0
Unaware
Population
becoming aware
and interested
deciding to use stopping usage
ratio of people
that can find
product
themselves
ratio of interested people
(depending on product
characteristics)
innovation
coefficient
chance of becoming
informed about product
ratio of people informed
about product
(by producers) successful
advertising/product
description
successful information
by other users
ratio of people
informed by others
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Potential
Users
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Actual
Users
Non-hit, Long Tail Economy
Non-hit, Old Economy
Hit, Long Tail Economy
Hit, Old Economy
Becoming a potential user depends on these technology-supported communication
mechanisms:
1.Information by producers (web sites, push email, rank tuning,…)
2.Information by other users (fora, blogs, chats,…)
3.Self-guided information (recommendation sites, searches,…)
Potential users will eventually become actual users (no time or effort restrictions
apply) due to the desire to innovate or to imitate.
Necessity of measures to guide choice (see Schwartz, 2004), otherwise people will
avoid, delay or regret decisions.
Δ 852%
Δ 4.8%
Actual users, non-hit
(after period 100)
Actual users, hit
(after period 100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Long Tail Economy Old Economy
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Long Tail Economy Old Economy