Africa's digital foundations
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My SATNAC 2015 keynote, covering the basis of a digital economy in Africa and some data on how well the continent is doing at deploying infrastructure and creating the conditions for innovation and entrepreneurship.
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Africa's digital foundations
- 1. Matthew Guest Head of Digital Strategy, EMEA, Deloitte Foundations for Africa’s Digital Journey
- 2. “To produce means to combine materials and forces within our reach” Joseph Schumpeter, 1910
- 3. Computers and other digital advances are doing for mental power — the ability to use our brains to understand and shape our environments — what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power Erik Brynjolfsson, 2014
- 4. Digital companies are 7x more productive than traditional ones Source: Deloitte research, 2014
- 5. In the next ten years 40% of the Fortune 500 companies will be gone Source: Olin School of Business at Washington University
- 6. Over the last twenty five years, almost all of the private sector jobs have been created by businesses less than five years old Source: Jason Wiens and Chris Jackson, Kauffmann Foundation, 2014
- 7. Foundations
- 8. Digital skills & education Symmetry of information Pervasive access to computing Innovative AND entrepreneurial culture
- 9. Pervasive access to computing Network capacity Global connectivity Enabling organisations Device proliferation
- 10. Eric Brynjolfsson, 2014 “In the next 24 months we will add more computer power than was previously added in the whole of human history”
- 11. Adults who own a cellphone Source: Pew Internet Trends, 2014 Proportion of smartphones 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% South Africa Nigeria Senegal Kenya Ghana Tanzania Smartphone Cellphone NOT smartphone No phone
- 12. - 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Central East North South West Networkinvestments,$Mn Source: Versatileamphibian.blogspot.co.uk
- 14. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 M&ATransactionValue,2009to2014 $33 Billion of M&A in 5 years Source: Versatileamphibian.blogspot.co.uk
- 15. 1 10 100 1,000 1 10 100 1,000 M&Ainvestments,$perperson,2009to2014 Network investments, $ per person, 2009 to 2014 M&A and investment relatively uncorrelated Source: Versatileamphibian.blogspot.co.uk
- 16. 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0 50 100 150 200 250 Europe Asia North America LATAM Africa Oceania Middle East NumberofactiveIXPs,September2015 IXPspermillionpeople,September2015 Source: Versatileamphibian.blogspot.co.uk
- 17. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 UK, Italy 26 countries have no IXP NumberofactiveIXPs,September2015 Source: Versatileamphibian.blogspot.co.uk
- 18. Digital skills & education Symmetry of information Pervasive access to computing Innovative & entrepreneurial culture Consumers love phones… but can’t afford smart ones Still (lots) more to do on infrastructure Need (way) more IXPs M&A doesn’t lead to more investment
- 19. Culture
- 20. Digital skills & education Symmetry of information Pervasive access to computing Innovative & entrepreneurial culture Still (lots) more to do on infrastructure M&A doesn’t lead to more investment Consumers love phones… but can’t afford smart ones Need (way) more IXPs
- 21. Innovative & entrepreneurial culture Access to resources Problems to solve Ability to take risk Appropriate regulation
- 22. Source: Tony Elumenu Foundation, 2014 Substitutional, not leapfrog innovation
- 23. Country Total early stage entrepreneurial activity % Established business ownership % Perceived opportunities % Perceived capabilities % Entrepreneurial intention % Fear of failure % South Africa 7 2.7 37 38 10 25 Nigeria 35 15.7 82 88 44 21 Ghana 25.8 25.9 69 86 46 25 Uganda 35.5 35.9 77 85 60 13 Brazil 17.2 17.5 56 50 25 36 India 6.6 3.7 39 37 8 38 Source: GEM, 2014 Psychology is (mostly) right
- 24. Access to finance very difficult 87% 53% Very hard to find suppliers Cost of inputs prohibitive 60% Source: Tony Elumenu Foundation, 2014
- 25. Access to finance very difficult 87%
- 26. Kamal Bhattacharya, VP Research IBM Africa “Entrepreneurs are typically experts in their own domains and markets, but they often lack the skills, expertise and confidence to take their business to the next level.”
- 27. Source: Geopoli, 2015 51% 55% 60% 63% 79% 48% 37% 40% 29% 16% Provide training programmes Improve business conditions OR Training is the most important thing states can provide DRC South Africa Nigeria Ghana Kenya
- 28. “All the traditional tools learnt to manage an organisation are irrelevant in the first chaotic year or two of an early stage venture” Steve Blank, serial entrepreneur
- 29. Digital skills & education Symmetry of information Pervasive access to computing Innovative AND entrepreneurial culture Plenty of ideas… but not so many global ones People want to start their own thing Finance & supply chain are major barriers Digital success is a volume game Business and entrepreneurial training are really lacking Consumers love phones… but can’t afford smart ones Need (way) more IXPs Still (lots) more to do on infrastructure M&A doesn’t lead to more investment
- 30. Over the last twenty five years, almost all of the private sector jobs have been created by businesses less than five years old Source: Jason Wiens and Chris Jackson, Kauffmann Foundation, 2014