SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 45
MOBILE IS 
EATING THE 
WORLD 
BENEDICT EVANS
For the first time, 
tech is selling to 
everyone
Growth into the bubble 
0.5 
0.4 
0.3 
0.2 
0.1 
0.0 
Billion people online 
1995 2000 
Source: ITU, a16z
Growth since the bubble 
3.5 
3.0 
2.5 
2.0 
1.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0.0 
Billion people online 
1995 2000 2014 
People online 
Smartphones 
Source: ITU, a16z
Growth into the future - everyone 
Another 1bn people will come online, all due to smartphones 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
Billion people online 
1995 2000 2014 2020 
People online 
Smartphones 
Source: ITU, a16z
The unconnected are shrinking 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
Global adult population 
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015e 2017e 
No Internet 
No smartphone 
[Source: a16z, World Bank, Apple, Google, Nokia]
The world in 2020 
By 2020 80% of the adults on earth will have a smartphone 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
Population Adults TV audience Literate 
adults 
Mobile Online pops Smart phones PCs Consumer 
PCs 
Global population (bn) 
Growth to 2020 
2014 
Source: World Bank, GSMA, a16z
Source: Apple, Intel, a16z 
A new iPhone CPU has 625 times more 
transistors than a 1995 Pentium 
iPhone launch weekend: Apple sold 25x 
more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs 
on Earth in 1995 
Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer
Yes, everyone 
The utility of mobile increases as income falls 
80% 
70% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
Cellular coverage 3G coverage now 3G coverage by 
2019 
Improved water Electricity Mobile users 
Sub-Saharan Africa population coverage 
Source: Ericsson, McKinsey
The first thing this 
changes is the 
internet
Post-Netscape, post-PageRank 
More time is spent in mobile apps than on all of the web 
1,250 
1,000 
750 
500 
250 
0 
US time spent online (bn minutes) 
June 2013 June 2014 
Mobile web 
Mobile app 
Desktop web 
Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform & Mobile Metrix, U.S., June 2013 - June 2014
And remains totally unsettled 
“Android”? Forks, Google Play 
Services, Chrome… 
“I installed an app on my Android smartphone ” 
“Installed” an “app”? Web apps, 
cards, APIs, push notifications, 
social platforms, Google Now… 
“Smartphone?” Watches, 
Glass, wearables, TV, 
tablets…
Ecosystem complexity 
Ecosystem dynamics depend on where you are and what you’re doing 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
Mobile platform share 
Phone unit sales SF FB users Delhi FB users App store revenue Global Browsing China browsing 
Android 
iOS 
Source: Facebook, Apple, Google, Gartner, Akamai, Baidu, a16z
New sensors, new businesses 
Smartphones are far more sophisticated than PCs 
A computer 
shouldn’t ask 
anything that 
it should 
know 
Sensors 
profoundly 
change what 
a computer 
can know 
Every new 
sensor 
creates a 
new 
business
Key: mobile leverage 
I n creased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale 
x 
Personal 
Taken everywhere 
Frictionless access 
Sensors, cameras 
Location 
Payment 
Social platform 
Much easier to use 
= 10x the 
opportunity 
2-3x more 
smartphones 
than PCs by 
2020
Facebook’s multi-stage rocket 
Mobile ads have doubled revenue and built a $6.5bn run-rate business in just 24 months 
3.0 
2.5 
2.0 
1.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0.0 
Facebook revenue by segment ($bn) 
June-11 December-11 June-12 December-12 June-13 December-13 June-14 
Mobile ads 
Payments & Other 
Desktop ads 
Source: Facebook
Source: GSMA, WhatsApp 
Global SMS: 7.5tr messages a year 
WhatsApp: 7.2tr messages a year 
(with just 30 engineers)
Fundamental change in costs 
Mobile leverage plus collapse of development costs transforms early capital needs 
2000 
100 staff 
1m users 
$10m raised 
Today 
10 staff 
10m users 
$1m raised 
YO 
1 man 
1m users 
$0 raised
Mobile remakes the 
tech industry
The smartphone industry dwarfs PCs 
4bn people buying every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying every 5 years 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
50 
0 
Quarterly unit shipments (m) 
March-95 March-97 March-99 March-01 March-03 March-05 March-07 March-09 March-11 March-13 
PCs 
iOS & Android 
Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, a16z
Mobile scale eats consumer electronics 
Smartphones & tablets are now close to half of the consumer electronics industry 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 
Source: GfK, a16z
1999 – 80bn consumer photos taken on film 
This year – 800bn photos shared on social 
networks 
More iPhones & Android phones sold than 
Japanese cameras ever 
Source: Kodak, Companies, CIPA, a16z
Shift away from Microsoft 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
Microsoft share of personal computing device sales 
March-09 March-10 March-11 March-12 March-13 March-14 
Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, a16z
Apple, the minority smartphone player, is 
overtaking the entire PC industry 
* PC industry excluding Mac sales Source: Apple, Microsoft, Barclays Capital 
250 
200 
150 
100 
50 
0 
Revenue ($bn) 
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
Apple 
PC industry * 
Microsoft
Tech centre of gravity moves from Seattle 
and Finland (and Japan) 
Old New 
Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google 
Chips Intel ARM & Qualcomm 
Mobile Nokia Shenzhen, China
Leveraging the mobile supply chain 
Enabling new 
categories 
Wearables, Internet 
of Things, Smart TV 
Connected cars, 
Drones etc etc 
Flood of small, 
cheap, low-power, 
high-performance 
smartphone chips 
And pushing into 
the data centre 
From ‘big iron’ 
and Intel to ARM 
and commodity 
components
More interesting: 
remaking other 
industries
Technology dominates our attention 
Source: Ofcom
And tech brands are huge 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
Share of top 100 global brand value 
2004 2014 
Google, Apple, 
Facebook, Amazon 
All tech brands 
Source: Interbrand
What would children miss the most? Mobile 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
‘Media you would miss most', UK aged 11-15 
Boys Girls 
Other 
TV set 
Games console 
PC 
Mobile & tablet 
Source: Ofcom
Comms are going pure digital, pure mobile 
Email is for grandparents 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
Share of communication activity, UK 
Adults 12 to 15 
Photo messages 
Messaging apps 
Social networks 
Phone calls 
Email 
Source: Ofcom
TV sets are in the minority 
Computing devices used for video now far outnumber actual ‘televisions’ 
Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Blackberry, Displaysearch, a16z 
TVs 
24% 
iOS 
13% 
Google Android 
23% 
Chinese Android 
9% 
WP/RIM 
1% 
PCs & Macs 
30% 
Global install base of video players 
“By the summer of 2012, 
the majority of the 
televisions you see in 
stores will have Google 
TV embedded” 
- Eric Schmidt
Glass is eating the world 
Close to a square foot of screen sold for every adult on earth 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
Global LCD display sales (billion square feet) 
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 
Source: Corning
Yet tech is still a pretty small industry 
1,600 
1,400 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
Global revenue, 2013 ($bn) 
Music Films Online ads Books PCs Phones GAFA TV Advertising Mobile Apparel Cars 
Source: Companies, PwC, a16z
Three phases of technology deployment 
Companies that 
write a check to buy 
technology 
Companies that 
make technology 
Companies that 
are created with 
technology
Companies that write a check for technology
Amazon: Sears Roebuck of the 21st Century 
Tech company? Or retailer created with tech? 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
-10 
Amazon since launch ($bn) 
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
Revenue 
Net income 
Source: Amazon
But still (relatively) tiny 
Amazon still only has 1% of US retail 
1.25% 
1.00% 
0.75% 
0.50% 
0.25% 
0.00% 
Amazon North America ecommerce as % US retail* 
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 
* Excluding gasoline, building supplies, food & beverage service. Source: a16z, BLS, Amazon
Each wave of tech creates new businesses 
Railways & 
steam press Photography Color printing Internet & 
Social 
Hearst Life Glossy 
Magazines Buzzfeed 
… but these are all still media businesses
But are those ‘tech’ businesses? 
Trucks & inter-state 
highways 
Trucks & inter-state 
highways 
Web & 
Smartphones Smartphones 
McDonalds Walmart AirBnB Uber/Lyft 
Food Retail Travel Transport
When tech is fully adopted, it disappears 
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
Source: Google 
Frequency of ‘Railways’ in Google Books
Steel 
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
Source: Google 
Frequency of ‘Steel’ in Google Books
Computerization 
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
Source: Google 
Frequency of ‘Computerization’ in Google Books
Software 
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
Source: Google 
Frequency of ‘Software’ in Google Books
‘Software is eating 
the world’ 
Tech outgrows the 
tech industry

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

People Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandPeople Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandSlides That Rock
 
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)Heinz Marketing Inc
 
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - Deck
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - DeckWhy Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - Deck
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - DeckJan Rezab
 
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...500 Startups
 
How to Determine the ROI of Anything
How to Determine the ROI of AnythingHow to Determine the ROI of Anything
How to Determine the ROI of AnythingGary Vaynerchuk
 
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and Tactics
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and TacticsMobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and Tactics
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and TacticsAdrien Montcoudiol
 
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful CreationPiktochart
 
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016Lewis Lin 🦊
 
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and Friends
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and FriendsThe Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and Friends
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and FriendsStacy Kvernmo
 
Mastercard - NOAH18 Berlin
Mastercard - NOAH18 BerlinMastercard - NOAH18 Berlin
Mastercard - NOAH18 BerlinNOAH Advisors
 
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017Amplitude
 
The Rise of Social Media Video Marketing
The Rise of Social Media Video MarketingThe Rise of Social Media Video Marketing
The Rise of Social Media Video MarketingGary Vaynerchuk
 
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Back
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's BackLaunching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Back
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Backjoshelman
 
How To Create An Impacting Startup Name
How To Create An Impacting Startup NameHow To Create An Impacting Startup Name
How To Create An Impacting Startup NameTommaso Di Bartolo
 
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online Disruption
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online DisruptionBuilding a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online Disruption
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online DisruptionSangeet Paul Choudary
 
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To IgnoreGary Vaynerchuk
 
Increase Productivity with ChatGPT
Increase Productivity with ChatGPTIncrease Productivity with ChatGPT
Increase Productivity with ChatGPTPrinceGarg95
 
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLESUX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLESJeremy Robinson
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

People Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandPeople Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your Brand
 
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)
50 Essential Content Marketing Hacks (Content Marketing World)
 
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - Deck
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - DeckWhy Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - Deck
Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication - Deck
 
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...
[500DISTRO] The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experim...
 
7 insights of Indonesia
7 insights of Indonesia7 insights of Indonesia
7 insights of Indonesia
 
How to Determine the ROI of Anything
How to Determine the ROI of AnythingHow to Determine the ROI of Anything
How to Determine the ROI of Anything
 
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and Tactics
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and TacticsMobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and Tactics
Mobile Growth: Best Strategies, Tools and Tactics
 
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation
24 Awesome Infographic Ideas to Inspire Your Next Beautiful Creation
 
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016
Web Design Trends 2015 & 2016
 
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and Friends
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and FriendsThe Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and Friends
The Great State of Design with CSS Grid Layout and Friends
 
Mastercard - NOAH18 Berlin
Mastercard - NOAH18 BerlinMastercard - NOAH18 Berlin
Mastercard - NOAH18 Berlin
 
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017
Amplitude Series C Deck (Abridged) August 2017
 
The Rise of Social Media Video Marketing
The Rise of Social Media Video MarketingThe Rise of Social Media Video Marketing
The Rise of Social Media Video Marketing
 
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Back
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's BackLaunching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Back
Launching a Rocketship Off Someone Else's Back
 
How To Create An Impacting Startup Name
How To Create An Impacting Startup NameHow To Create An Impacting Startup Name
How To Create An Impacting Startup Name
 
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online Disruption
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online DisruptionBuilding a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online Disruption
Building a Marketplace: A Checklist for Online Disruption
 
The Creative Ai storm
The Creative Ai stormThe Creative Ai storm
The Creative Ai storm
 
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore
6 Snapchat Hacks Too Easy To Ignore
 
Increase Productivity with ChatGPT
Increase Productivity with ChatGPTIncrease Productivity with ChatGPT
Increase Productivity with ChatGPT
 
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLESUX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
UX RULES: 10 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES
 

Andere mochten auch

Software is Eating Bio
Software is Eating BioSoftware is Eating Bio
Software is Eating Bioa16z
 
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017a16z
 
Network Effects
Network EffectsNetwork Effects
Network Effectsa16z
 
Go-to-Market Best Practices for Startups
Go-to-Market Best Practices for StartupsGo-to-Market Best Practices for Startups
Go-to-Market Best Practices for Startupsa16z
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)a16z
 
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش رو
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش روInternet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش رو
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش روMasoud Zamani
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? a16z
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)a16z
 
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!Eric Jackson
 
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentationHugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentationJenny Redman
 
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...Buffer
 
The inner workings of Digital Disruption
The inner workings of Digital DisruptionThe inner workings of Digital Disruption
The inner workings of Digital DisruptionPlatform Revolution
 
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware Courts
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware CourtsHoulihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware Courts
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware CourtsHoulihan Lokey
 
Why Boards Matter: Building and Developing a World Class Board of Directors
Why Boards Matter:  Building and Developing a World Class Board of DirectorsWhy Boards Matter:  Building and Developing a World Class Board of Directors
Why Boards Matter: Building and Developing a World Class Board of DirectorsJim Citrin
 
Trc investor presentation 05 13 final
Trc investor presentation 05 13 finalTrc investor presentation 05 13 final
Trc investor presentation 05 13 finaltrcsolutions
 
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About Success
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About SuccessBlack Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About Success
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About SuccessMatthew Syed
 
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around Viacom
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around ViacomSpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around Viacom
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around ViacomEric Jackson
 
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell YouAbhishek Shah
 

Andere mochten auch (20)

Software is Eating Bio
Software is Eating BioSoftware is Eating Bio
Software is Eating Bio
 
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
 
Network Effects
Network EffectsNetwork Effects
Network Effects
 
Go-to-Market Best Practices for Startups
Go-to-Market Best Practices for StartupsGo-to-Market Best Practices for Startups
Go-to-Market Best Practices for Startups
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)
 
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش رو
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش روInternet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش رو
Internet of Things - Future & Opportunities * اینترنت اشیاء - فرصتهای پیش رو
 
Internet of Things
Internet of ThingsInternet of Things
Internet of Things
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
 
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On How To Best Turnaround Yahoo!
 
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentationHugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
 
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...
Top 10 Learnings Growing to (Almost) $10 Million ARR: Leo's presentation at S...
 
The inner workings of Digital Disruption
The inner workings of Digital DisruptionThe inner workings of Digital Disruption
The inner workings of Digital Disruption
 
European Unicorns 2016
European Unicorns 2016European Unicorns 2016
European Unicorns 2016
 
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware Courts
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware CourtsHoulihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware Courts
Houlihan Lokey: Valuation in the Delaware Courts
 
Why Boards Matter: Building and Developing a World Class Board of Directors
Why Boards Matter:  Building and Developing a World Class Board of DirectorsWhy Boards Matter:  Building and Developing a World Class Board of Directors
Why Boards Matter: Building and Developing a World Class Board of Directors
 
Trc investor presentation 05 13 final
Trc investor presentation 05 13 finalTrc investor presentation 05 13 final
Trc investor presentation 05 13 final
 
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About Success
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About SuccessBlack Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About Success
Black Box Thinking - The Surprising Truth About Success
 
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around Viacom
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around ViacomSpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around Viacom
SpringOwl's 99 Page Presentation On Turning Around Viacom
 
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You
8 Things Your VC Won’t Tell You
 

Ähnlich wie Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)

2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’
2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’
2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’Benedict Evans
 
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)Shane Williamson
 
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webWhy you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webTijs Vrolix
 
Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Monitise MEA
 
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileWhy Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileDigiday
 
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile webTen reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile webTijs Vrolix
 
Are you Smart Phone savvy?
Are you Smart Phone savvy?Are you Smart Phone savvy?
Are you Smart Phone savvy?Simon Lock
 
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)CM Research
 
2013 11 mobile eating the world
2013 11 mobile eating the world2013 11 mobile eating the world
2013 11 mobile eating the worldBenedict Evans
 
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationBenedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationCommunicate Magazine
 
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Alex Gorski
 
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile webTijs Vrolix
 
The Opportunity for Digital Transformation
The Opportunity for Digital TransformationThe Opportunity for Digital Transformation
The Opportunity for Digital TransformationMichael MacDonald
 
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred Steube
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred SteubeEmerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred Steube
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred SteubeFred Steube
 
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyondMobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyondJennifer Wilson
 
Mobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldMobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldArabNet ME
 
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010Barney Loehnis
 
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko Nataliia
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko NataliiaMobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko Nataliia
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko NataliiaNatali Omelyanenko
 
State of Mobile Computing
State of Mobile Computing State of Mobile Computing
State of Mobile Computing Alex Ferrara
 

Ähnlich wie Mobile Is Eating the World (2014) (20)

2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’
2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’
2013 05 BEA - ’Mobile is eating the World’
 
Benedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the World
Benedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the WorldBenedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the World
Benedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the World
 
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)
The Mobile Industry & Ecosystem (March 2010)
 
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webWhy you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
 
Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012
 
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileWhy Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
 
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile webTen reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
Ten reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
 
Are you Smart Phone savvy?
Are you Smart Phone savvy?Are you Smart Phone savvy?
Are you Smart Phone savvy?
 
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)
2015 Global Trend Forecast (Technology, Media & Telecoms)
 
2013 11 mobile eating the world
2013 11 mobile eating the world2013 11 mobile eating the world
2013 11 mobile eating the world
 
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationBenedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
 
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
 
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
10 reasons why now is the perfect time to get serious about the mobile web
 
The Opportunity for Digital Transformation
The Opportunity for Digital TransformationThe Opportunity for Digital Transformation
The Opportunity for Digital Transformation
 
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred Steube
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred SteubeEmerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred Steube
Emerging Technology, Shiny Objects & The Future of Media - iSummit - Fred Steube
 
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyondMobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
 
Mobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldMobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The World
 
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010
Japan Digital Overview from Neo @ Ogilvy 2010
 
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko Nataliia
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko NataliiaMobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko Nataliia
Mobile Trends 2018 by Omelyanenko Nataliia
 
State of Mobile Computing
State of Mobile Computing State of Mobile Computing
State of Mobile Computing
 

Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)

  • 1. MOBILE IS EATING THE WORLD BENEDICT EVANS
  • 2. For the first time, tech is selling to everyone
  • 3. Growth into the bubble 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Billion people online 1995 2000 Source: ITU, a16z
  • 4. Growth since the bubble 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Billion people online 1995 2000 2014 People online Smartphones Source: ITU, a16z
  • 5. Growth into the future - everyone Another 1bn people will come online, all due to smartphones 5 4 3 2 1 0 Billion people online 1995 2000 2014 2020 People online Smartphones Source: ITU, a16z
  • 6. The unconnected are shrinking 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Global adult population 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015e 2017e No Internet No smartphone [Source: a16z, World Bank, Apple, Google, Nokia]
  • 7. The world in 2020 By 2020 80% of the adults on earth will have a smartphone 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Population Adults TV audience Literate adults Mobile Online pops Smart phones PCs Consumer PCs Global population (bn) Growth to 2020 2014 Source: World Bank, GSMA, a16z
  • 8. Source: Apple, Intel, a16z A new iPhone CPU has 625 times more transistors than a 1995 Pentium iPhone launch weekend: Apple sold 25x more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs on Earth in 1995 Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer
  • 9. Yes, everyone The utility of mobile increases as income falls 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cellular coverage 3G coverage now 3G coverage by 2019 Improved water Electricity Mobile users Sub-Saharan Africa population coverage Source: Ericsson, McKinsey
  • 10. The first thing this changes is the internet
  • 11. Post-Netscape, post-PageRank More time is spent in mobile apps than on all of the web 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 US time spent online (bn minutes) June 2013 June 2014 Mobile web Mobile app Desktop web Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform & Mobile Metrix, U.S., June 2013 - June 2014
  • 12. And remains totally unsettled “Android”? Forks, Google Play Services, Chrome… “I installed an app on my Android smartphone ” “Installed” an “app”? Web apps, cards, APIs, push notifications, social platforms, Google Now… “Smartphone?” Watches, Glass, wearables, TV, tablets…
  • 13. Ecosystem complexity Ecosystem dynamics depend on where you are and what you’re doing 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Mobile platform share Phone unit sales SF FB users Delhi FB users App store revenue Global Browsing China browsing Android iOS Source: Facebook, Apple, Google, Gartner, Akamai, Baidu, a16z
  • 14. New sensors, new businesses Smartphones are far more sophisticated than PCs A computer shouldn’t ask anything that it should know Sensors profoundly change what a computer can know Every new sensor creates a new business
  • 15. Key: mobile leverage I n creased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale x Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payment Social platform Much easier to use = 10x the opportunity 2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020
  • 16. Facebook’s multi-stage rocket Mobile ads have doubled revenue and built a $6.5bn run-rate business in just 24 months 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Facebook revenue by segment ($bn) June-11 December-11 June-12 December-12 June-13 December-13 June-14 Mobile ads Payments & Other Desktop ads Source: Facebook
  • 17. Source: GSMA, WhatsApp Global SMS: 7.5tr messages a year WhatsApp: 7.2tr messages a year (with just 30 engineers)
  • 18. Fundamental change in costs Mobile leverage plus collapse of development costs transforms early capital needs 2000 100 staff 1m users $10m raised Today 10 staff 10m users $1m raised YO 1 man 1m users $0 raised
  • 19. Mobile remakes the tech industry
  • 20. The smartphone industry dwarfs PCs 4bn people buying every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying every 5 years 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Quarterly unit shipments (m) March-95 March-97 March-99 March-01 March-03 March-05 March-07 March-09 March-11 March-13 PCs iOS & Android Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, a16z
  • 21. Mobile scale eats consumer electronics Smartphones & tablets are now close to half of the consumer electronics industry 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: GfK, a16z
  • 22. 1999 – 80bn consumer photos taken on film This year – 800bn photos shared on social networks More iPhones & Android phones sold than Japanese cameras ever Source: Kodak, Companies, CIPA, a16z
  • 23. Shift away from Microsoft 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Microsoft share of personal computing device sales March-09 March-10 March-11 March-12 March-13 March-14 Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, a16z
  • 24. Apple, the minority smartphone player, is overtaking the entire PC industry * PC industry excluding Mac sales Source: Apple, Microsoft, Barclays Capital 250 200 150 100 50 0 Revenue ($bn) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apple PC industry * Microsoft
  • 25. Tech centre of gravity moves from Seattle and Finland (and Japan) Old New Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google Chips Intel ARM & Qualcomm Mobile Nokia Shenzhen, China
  • 26. Leveraging the mobile supply chain Enabling new categories Wearables, Internet of Things, Smart TV Connected cars, Drones etc etc Flood of small, cheap, low-power, high-performance smartphone chips And pushing into the data centre From ‘big iron’ and Intel to ARM and commodity components
  • 27. More interesting: remaking other industries
  • 28. Technology dominates our attention Source: Ofcom
  • 29. And tech brands are huge 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Share of top 100 global brand value 2004 2014 Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon All tech brands Source: Interbrand
  • 30. What would children miss the most? Mobile 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% ‘Media you would miss most', UK aged 11-15 Boys Girls Other TV set Games console PC Mobile & tablet Source: Ofcom
  • 31. Comms are going pure digital, pure mobile Email is for grandparents 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Share of communication activity, UK Adults 12 to 15 Photo messages Messaging apps Social networks Phone calls Email Source: Ofcom
  • 32. TV sets are in the minority Computing devices used for video now far outnumber actual ‘televisions’ Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Blackberry, Displaysearch, a16z TVs 24% iOS 13% Google Android 23% Chinese Android 9% WP/RIM 1% PCs & Macs 30% Global install base of video players “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded” - Eric Schmidt
  • 33. Glass is eating the world Close to a square foot of screen sold for every adult on earth 5 4 3 2 1 0 Global LCD display sales (billion square feet) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Corning
  • 34. Yet tech is still a pretty small industry 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Global revenue, 2013 ($bn) Music Films Online ads Books PCs Phones GAFA TV Advertising Mobile Apparel Cars Source: Companies, PwC, a16z
  • 35. Three phases of technology deployment Companies that write a check to buy technology Companies that make technology Companies that are created with technology
  • 36. Companies that write a check for technology
  • 37. Amazon: Sears Roebuck of the 21st Century Tech company? Or retailer created with tech? 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Amazon since launch ($bn) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue Net income Source: Amazon
  • 38. But still (relatively) tiny Amazon still only has 1% of US retail 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% Amazon North America ecommerce as % US retail* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Excluding gasoline, building supplies, food & beverage service. Source: a16z, BLS, Amazon
  • 39. Each wave of tech creates new businesses Railways & steam press Photography Color printing Internet & Social Hearst Life Glossy Magazines Buzzfeed … but these are all still media businesses
  • 40. But are those ‘tech’ businesses? Trucks & inter-state highways Trucks & inter-state highways Web & Smartphones Smartphones McDonalds Walmart AirBnB Uber/Lyft Food Retail Travel Transport
  • 41. When tech is fully adopted, it disappears 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Google Frequency of ‘Railways’ in Google Books
  • 42. Steel 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Google Frequency of ‘Steel’ in Google Books
  • 43. Computerization 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Google Frequency of ‘Computerization’ in Google Books
  • 44. Software 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Google Frequency of ‘Software’ in Google Books
  • 45. ‘Software is eating the world’ Tech outgrows the tech industry