Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has resulted one of the most severe food and energy crises in the recent history and energy security became more vital than transition to green energy.

1. UKRAINE CRISIS IMPACTS
TO
GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY
by
Dr. Zeynep Elif Yıldızel
The Global Economic Impact Forum on Ukraine
21-22 June 2022
Istanbul

2. Ukraine's Significance
Energy
Minerals
and
Mining
Food
Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has resulted one of the most severe
food and energy crises in the recent history and energy security
became more vital than transition to green energy.

3. 1. 42 million people with 233062 km2
2. Key economy during Soviet Union
3. World Bank classifies as middle – income country
4. Over 20.000 deposits of 194 known minerals holding makes Ukraine approximately 5% of the World’s
mineral resources
5. iron ore, coal, manganese, natural gas, oil, salt, sulfur, graphite, titanium, magnesium, kaolin, nickel,
mercury, timber, arable land
• Coal 34 billion ton 7th place in the world
• Iron ore reserves 30 billion tonnes 2nd place in the world
• Manganese ore produced 736.000 ton in 2010 2nd place in World 2,3 billion tonnes
• 1st Uranium deposits in Europe accounts for 1.8% of the worlds U deposits. The proven reserves
contains estimated 45.600 ton of U.
• Graphite over 1 billion ton accounts for the 20% of the world’s graphite reserve
• Titanium, known 15 deposits and 2nd place in Europe and 10th place in world
• Mercury 30.000 ton accounts for the 2% of the World ranking 5th
• Shale gas reserves 22 trillion m3 holds 3rd place in Europe
• Potash, salt, gold
• 400 million bbls of proved oil reserves by 2021
• 39 Tcf proved natural gas by 2021
6. Transit country for supplies of oil and gas from Russia to Europe
7. 72 compressor station, > 45.000 km of pipeline and 13 UGS total working capacity of 1.1Tcf supplying 142
Bcm to EU, 4th gas market in Europe and 4th gas pipeline in World and 2nd largest storage capacity in Eu
8. 15 nuclear reactors producing 51% of the total electric power supply in 2020 2nd in the Europe in terms of
installed capacity of 13 million kW
Ukraine in Few Points

4. Immediate Impact of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices via Ukraine Crises
1. Popularity of climate change topic, the mostly blamed oil and gas investment had become minimum since 2014
signalizing that there will be a shortfall of oil and gas reserves but not taking those signals seriously
2. Romantic decisions on net zero targets made the energy security outdated
3. Relying the grid to nature-controlled sun and wind and decommissioning of aged nuclear power plants or halting
new ones
4. Non diversification of sources due to the laws of capitalism considering economics in first place rather than security
5. Believing that Covid -19 pandemic will change the World ever after
6. Confusing energy independency with energy security
7. Ignoring the fact that oil accounts approximately 3% of the GDP and is one of the most important commodities in
the World and found in everything we use as we call 21st century requirements such as plastics, chemicals, aspirin,
clothing even solar panel and many more
Oil price
crises
COVID-19
impact
Ukraine
crises
Ukraine
crises
COVID-19
impact
Oil price
crises

5. Russia’s Contribution to Energy System
• Russia exports 4.3 million bbls/d crude
• of 2.5 million /d crude to EU
• Russia exports 210 Bcm annually natural gas via pipelines
• of 142 Bcm to EU
• Russia's crude oil reserves are 108 billion bbls and hold the 6% of the World’s total
reserves
• Russia's natural gas reserves are 34.7 Tcm and holds the 20% of the World’s total
reserves
Source: Egypt Oil&Gas Newspaper, June 2022
Those
IOCs
are
investing
into
O&G
in
Russia

6. How Energy Prices End Up with Rising
• The oil price crises in 2014 impacted the investment in E&P sector and until 2019 the
World encountered the lowest amount until then
• As the prices start increasing by the end of 2018 the Covid-19 pandemic resulted decrease
in demand resulted halting the re-investment in E&P again
• After 2020 and start of 2021, demand increased due to booming economic growth after
covid-19 pandemic and the oil prices started increase due to limited supply and long
investment cycles
• By 2022 the impact of low investment during last 5 years affected the oil prices to increase
• The Ukraine crises in February 2022 skyrocketed the energy prices which was expected to
be, due to lack of investment since 2014
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put energy transition to a crossroad, where energy security
became more important than energy transition
• 10% increase in oil and gas prices typically raises global oil and gas investment 3% in the
same year and 5% in the coming 2 years cumulatively
• After the Paris Agreement, capital expenditure of a typical oil and gas company was 35%
lower than; part of this decline is explained by the effect of low oil prices between 2014-
2017 and between 2018-2020 the energy transition expectation was effective. After 2020
the Covid-10 demand decrease is the case for the lack of investment in the oil and gas
upstream

7. Russian Crude Supply to EU
Source: Kpler
Rusia crude oil export by destination
• Russia
•Worlds 3rd largest crude producer and exporter
•2nd largest producer and exporter of natural gas
•+coal + wheat +sunflower oil +fertilizers
• The hydrocarbon resources are located
• Dnieper-Donetsk
• Carpathain
• Black Sea of Azov Sea
• The new EEZ claim of Russia may result a campaing of Black
Sea Exploration

8. Russian Natural Gas Supply to EU
• Eu supply its gas from :
• 15% from its own production
• 85% from imports
• Gas supply to EU (2021)
• 312.7 Bcm pipeline gas
• 69 Bcm production
• 93.5 Bcm LNG
• 19 Bcm UGS
• 312.7 Bcm pipeline gas (2021)
• 142 Bcm from Russia
• 124 Bcm from Norway
• 38 Bcm from Africa
• 8 Bcm from Azerbaijan
• Russian gas via 5 main pipelines (~443 MMcm/d)
• The Nord Stream (165 MMcm/d)
• To Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
• Yamal Europe pipeline (114 MMcm/d)
• to Poland and Germany via Belarus
• The Soyuz and Brotherhood (110MMcm/d)
• To Central Europe via Ukraine
• Turkish Stream (54 MMcm/d)
• To Southeastern Europe via Turkish Stream
Source: The Oxford Institute for Energy
Source: WEF

9. Energy Dependency of EU to Russia via Ukraine
• Ukraine does not have significant amount of reserves in Oil and Gas but does have basins to be explored
• Ukraine is important to EU as a transit country plus UGS for the times of the high demand seasons
Natural gas
142 Bcm
EU
imports
72 compressor
13 UGS
> 45.000 km pipeline
UKRAINE RUSSIA
Policies
equilateral
triangle
Energy Security
Energy
Transition
Climate
Change

10. Ukraine Importance on Export
• 2021 Ukraine exported 68.9 billion $ of goods
• EU is Ukraine’s largest trading partner accounting for 39.5%, the total
trade was 52.4 billion € in 2021
• Ukraine exports 24.1 billion € of iron and steel, ores, stag and ash
food, machinery and other goods
• Eu exports 28.3 billion € of machinery, equipment, vehicles
pharmaceutical and other goods
• Major importers from Ukraine are
• China, Poland, Türkiye, Russia, Italy, Germany, India, Netherlands,
Egypt, Spain, Hungary and US
• 50.3% of Ukraine's exports are delivered to EU and 36.8% were
sent to Asia and 8.1% exported to Africa
• Ukraine sold 3.3 billion $ of aluminum oxide , steel and iron products to
Russia
• The Ukraine's economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022 and even
if the war ends, the loss of life, destruction of physical capital and
Ukrainian refugees that will not return will affect all the economy and its
exports
• War in Ukraine and sanctions of Russia is affecting the energy prices
together with energy security and sustainability
• Supply chain disruptions are affecting some industries seriously
• Some key minerals as raw materials Ukraine exports are going to face
price increases resulting price increases in many good that are being
produced by
• Ukraine aproximately have 4000 million
bbl of oil reserves
• Ukraine has 39 Tcf of natural gas reserves
(including Crimeria)
• Located in Dnieper-Donets basins
• 15 EU countries transit gas through
Ukraine

11. Outcomes
1. Energy security once again in the history became the major issue for the countries
2. Climate change concerns is beaten by energy security
3. Renewables showed that energy independency is not the same with energy security
4. Nuclear power will stand out from all these mass as it is carbon free while producing energy and it produces
a controlled energy not dependent on nature
5. Oil as a commodity holds 3% of the global GDP so due to Russia’s invasion the oil and gas prices skyrocketed
resulting in inflation in all the nations economics
6. The companies doing business within the Russia and with Russian companies had to halt their activities
which will bring more overburden to the economies of the mother countries of those companies
7. Asia demand is increasing so the extra output from any region for oil and gas and LNG may direct to
emerging markets not EU will cause another problem for the EU countries and may change the politics
8. Inflation will hit the nations with different percentages as the energy prices will continue to rise
9. Globalization has become on a point that sanctions are not easily set fort; sometimes good sometimes bad

12. Conclusions
1. Ukraine should be the CenterPoint in energy security
especially for EU
2. Ukraine's damaged infrastructure and human
resources should be immediately raised up
3. Ukraine’s mining industry should be raised up as she is
important contributor to raw materials
4. Source to production Ukraine's nuclear power plants
should be invested
5. Ukraine have unexplored basins on shore and offshore
so oil and gas contribution of Ukraine may increase