Presentation for the CASSINI Hackathon Finland and Nordic Startup School

1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THE ARCTIC
Zachary Labe
Postdoc at Colorado State University
1 November 2021
CASSINI Hackathon Finland
Nordic Startup School
@ZLabe

2. ZACHARY LABE, PH.D.
Climate Scientist at Colorado State University, USA
zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu
RESEARCHER
Climate signal vs. weather noise
@ZLabe
COMMUNICATOR
RESEARCHER
Arctic climate change
STORYTELLER
Simple, bold data visualization

5. Warmer
Colder
Now!
Start of
satellite-era

6. Polar Amplification:
acceleration of warming in
high latitudes relative to
the rest of the globe

7. Polar Amplification:
acceleration of warming in
high latitudes relative to
the rest of the globe

8. The Arctic.

9. The Arctic.

11. WHY?
Sea ice extent is dropping
at a rate of nearly
0.8 million km2/decade
Temperatures rising >3x as
fast as the globally
averaged mean

13. Satellite-era
Uncertainties!

14. Climate Variability
R
e
c
e
n
t
A
r
c
t
i
c
A
m
p
l
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n

15. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

16. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

17. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

18. [Goosse
et
al.
2018]

19. Ice-covered
No Ice

20. Observing ice.

21. SEA-ICE EXTENT
2 km

22. SEA-ICE THICKNESS
1.5 m

23. NASA Scientific Visualization Studio

24. We also use climate
models!

25. Modeling vs. Field Work

26. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

29. Snow pits

30. MOSAiC – 2019/2020
https://mosaic-expedition.org/science/

31. Trends &
Variability.

32. The extent of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…

33. The thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…

34. The volume of Arctic sea ice is decreasing…

35. The age of Arctic sea ice is getting younger…

36. Future projections.

37. Climate model projection of summer sea ice through 2100

38. 1920-1962 1980-1997
1998-2015
2006-2042
1963-2005
2043-2080
LENS
LABE ET AL. 2018, JCLI
Historical
Record
Future
Projections
A CLIMATE MODEL

39. Changes to
weather.

40. JET STREAM
[Visualization
by
NASA/JPL
Hyperwall]

41. WHY?
How does Arctic amplification
influence extreme weather
events?
Has it?
Will it?
Can it?
Necessary to understand
mechanisms of Arctic climate
variability before assessing
future local/remote responses
Barnes and
Screen [2015]

42. COLD
EXTREMES
LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL

43. Regional impacts.

52. [International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]

53. Increasing
economic
activity in
the Arctic

54. Looking back.

55. https://www.oldweather.org/

57. Looking ahead.

58. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980
Our planet
without change…

59. ARCTIC
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE
[Modified from SWIPA, 2017]
[0°C]
[14°C]
[7°C]
High Emissions
Low Emissions
Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections

60. It’s not
too late!

61. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

62. KEY POINTS
Zachary Labe
zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu
@ZLabe
Climate change has already emerged in the Arctic.
Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in
future climate projections.
We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.