Empfohlen
Empfohlen
Weitere ähnliche Inhalte
Was ist angesagt?
Was ist angesagt? (19)
Ähnlich wie Acting on the Future: Practical Foresight Implementation in Canada
Ähnlich wie Acting on the Future: Practical Foresight Implementation in Canada (20)
Mehr von WorldFuture2015
Mehr von WorldFuture2015 (20)
Kürzlich hochgeladen
Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Acting on the Future: Practical Foresight Implementation in Canada
- 1. Acting on the Future: Practical Foresight Implementation in Canada John M Schmidt CANSYNTH July 27, 2015 WorldFuture 2015 Global Issues
- 3. Most governments operate using institutions designed for an era gone by. Increasing collisions with “unforeseeable events” and opportunities lost. In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully influence ultimate outcomes. We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events. Anticipatory Governance:
- 4. Need to institutionalize three basic management systems: (1) a system for integrating foresight into policy development and execution; (2) a networked system; (3) a feedback system. Requirements:
- 5. Governments and their agencies need a foresight function to help them: • understand and challenge their own assumptions; • anticipate plausible futures, including the expected and unexpected outcomes of current decisions; • observe key indicators; • offset negative drivers or ameliorate their effects;
- 6. Governments and their agencies need a foresight function to help them: • be sensitive to weak signals and the emergence of disruptive wild cards, as well as to more established “trends”; • pre-decide contingent strategies; • respond quickly and adapt to change processes and events; • fulfill their mandates and meet their goals.
- 7. Not an easy sell, even if broad agreement on need. Near-term emergencies always trump longer-term challenges. The question is how to achieve strategic coherence. Government systems are outmoded for today’s kind of problems, which are “complex” rather than just “complicated.” Anticipatory Governance:
- 9. Outcomes: • Intended • Unintended Foresight Intelligence • Emerging trends • Scenarios/what-ifs • Weak signals • Outliers, Black swans • Resiliency factors • Drivers & Signposts • Current/Operational • Tactical forecast • Strategic forecast • Current trends • Statistical predictions • Monitoring/Warning Planning & Policy Decisions Actions Near Far Range of interest Requirements & Tasking A Complete and Interactive System
- 10. • intelligence directed at supporting action (or counter-action) • foresight directed at supporting preparedness and resiliency • collaboration and mutual support between the two A Complete and Interactive System:
- 11. Government agency executives are often: • uncertain how to effectively develop and implement a foresight capacity; • hesitant without having a clear idea of the likely cost-benefit consequences.
- 13. Intelligence Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight Policy Planning Intelligence +Foresight ? Policy +Foresight Planning +Foresight
- 14. ForesightIntelligence Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight Policy Planning Foresight
- 15. ForesightIntelligence Policy Planning Foresight Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight
- 16. Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight Intelligence Policy Planning Foresight External Foresight SMEs External Foresight SMEs Central Foresight Agency
- 17. • Some United Nations agencies • European Union, OECD, NATO • Other bilateral and multilateral international bodies • Some national governments • Some specific government agencies Public Sector Foresight Implementation:
- 18. Dreyer & Stang (2013) Country Foresight program(s) implemented Well resourced & widely used Multiple departments Central agency Arms-length research agency Canada X X X X France X X X X Netherlands X X X X Singapore X X X X UK X X X X Finland X X X X Sweden X X X X Germany X X X U.S. X X X Japan X X X X South Korea X X X Australia X X China X ? X? ? ? Norway X X Brazil X Switzerland X Italy X South Africa X Russia X India Indonesia Mexico Government implementation of foresight
- 19. • Centralised – foresight responsibility vested in one or a few central, whole-of government agencies or external authorities • Decentralized – foresight responsibility vested in line departments and agencies • Distributed – both central agency and line agency responsibilities, non-hierarchical and networked Implementation Approaches:
- 20. Singapore Government Foresight Ecosystem Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures
- 21. • Foresight program formally established in 1994 • Science & innovation investment framework report of 2004 – All departments to do horizon scanning and be linked – Office of S&T Horizon Scanning Centre – Chief Scientific Adviser to provide strategic context • In 2009, the foresight program was determined to be effective and broadened beyond S&T policy to the full public policy agenda United Kingdom
- 22. United Kingdom • More recently, has become badly coordinated • Central oversight now absent • Interdepartmental analyst-level networks poorly coordinated and maintained • Horizon scanning performance inconsistent and not generally systematic • Foresight networks not centrally managed • Civil service siloing affected foresight activities and outcomes
- 23. • As of 2012, few departments and agencies had foresight functions • Now, at least fifty use foresight in some form • Some are well-established, programmatic units • Others are rapidly developing foresight capabilities • In some, though, foresight activities have declined • There is still no central foresight agency with whole- of-government foresight responsibility United States
- 24. United States Federal Foresight Community of Interest • Informal, but well-established network • Sharing foresight methods, best practices and results • Community document repository (on Max.gov) • Peer analysis, expertise and resources • Fostering cross-agency research and collaboration • Partnering with non-government organizations • Demonstrating the value of foresight in government • Promoting connectivity and leadership engagement
- 25. • growing interest in foresight • scanning most developed; scenario use increasing • some department head committees supportive • Policy Horizons Canada the central foresight agency • most departments in Environmental Scanning Practice Group • few groups with mandate to do foresight, but changing • nine government departments identified as doing foresight Canada in 2012
- 26. What has changed? … not much. Canada Now
- 27. Policy Horizons Canada (Horizons): • evolved in 2011 • provides foresight to help the federal public service anticipate emerging policy challenges and opportunities in a rapidly changing and complex world • works with others, inside and outside the federal family Canada Now
- 28. Policy Horizons Canada (Horizons): • reports to a Committee of Deputy Ministers. (department heads) • 16 professional and 10 administrative staff • produces one or two major and contributing reports per year Canada Now
- 30. October, 2012 Driving Policy on a Shifting Terrain: Understanding the Changing Policy Environment Amid 21st-Century Complexity Innovation Labs: Bridging Think Tanks and Do Tanks The Emerging Neurotechnologies: Recent Developments and Policy Implications The Next Economy: Transformation and Resilience in Times of Rapid Change December, 2012 Transforming Off-line Commitment to Online Engagement: Year one in Creating a Community of Practice on a Social Media Platform Observing the Big Blue Marble: A Policy Lever Manufacturing Goes Digital with 3D Printing June, 2013 Viral Change in Organizations The Future is History Benefits and Challenges of ICTs for Citizens Sharing Ideas with Visuals Technology: Governing the Ungovernable? August, 2013 Agricultural and Natural Manufacturing Technology Building Familiarity with Federal Foresight Approaches and Tools in the Yukon Neurotechnology and Cognitive Technologies Nanotechnology and Materials Science The Rise of the Otherwise-abled Health Technology Digital and Communication Technology
- 33. Canada Departments and agencies • Approximately 215 officially listed • 10 to 15 known to have active foresight programs • No foresight network in place • Information gaps likely • CALWC, in cooperation with Horizons and the Conference Board of Canada, recently conducted an inventory exercise
- 34. Canada Foresight Inventory • Existence and formality of foresight function • Unit size and proportion of foresight work • Location in the organization • Links to wider structure and governance processes • Maturity • Participation and acceptance • Training • Products, success stories and lessons learned
- 35. Canada Foresight Inventory • Well over 100 questionnaires sent out to people in key positions in departments and agencies most likely to have foresight activities • Horizons and ten departments and agencies provided completed questionnaires • Not all agencies with previously known foresight functions replied, but some new ones did
- 36. Canada Foresight Inventory Results • Four types: 1. Formal foresight function/unit 2. Foresight as non-primary responsibility of other staff 3. Foresight projects/activities done 4. No identified foresight activity
- 38. Canada No network! • CBoC FuSION brings people from across the government together for foresight training and exercises, but is generally limited to that • No shared place/mechanism to develop, exchange and store knowledge and results • Agency foresight efforts can sprout, wither and disappear without outside awareness or support
- 39. Canada Conclusion: Canada is a long way from having a sound foresight regime. While it has an established central foresight agency, its focus is almost entirely on whole-of-government issues. Agency-based implementations are few, mostly still quite tentative and generally isolated from one another, especially without a network to support effective collaboration.
- 40. Thinking about the Future, Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Andy Hines and Peter Bishop, Eds., http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Future-Guidelines-Strategic- Foresight/dp/097893170X Anticipatory Governance – Practical Upgrades, Leon Fuerth and Evan Faber, http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja &sqi=2&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wilsoncenter.org%2Fsites%2Fdefa ult%2Ffiles%2FAnticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf&ei=qkR5UqzwNLOM yAHd0IGYCA&usg=AFQjCNE3uMEeJPjcKN-TqHEiy2VzvQRf_w "Co-Creating Foresight Culture in Government", Greg Van Alstyne, https://www.dropbox.com/s/ec4lenpkpxqribc/VanAlstyne%2CG_2013_CoCreatingFore sightCultureinGovt_sLab-OCADU.pdf UH Foresight Bibliography, University of Houston group, http://www.andyhinesight.com/?attachment_id=1446 (click on the UH Foresight Bibliography link, updated regularly, or on one of the floating words/phrases ) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Peter Schwartz, http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Long-View-Uncertain/dp/0385267320/ ref=pd_sim_b_2?ie=UTF8&refRID=0X54JFZ85TCY72B5PEYM#reader_0385267320
- 41. Foresight in governments – practices and trends around the world, Iana Dreyer and Gerald Stang, http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&ved=0C C4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iss.europa.eu%2Ffileadmin%2Feuiss%2Fdocumen ts%2FBooks%2FYearbook%2F2.1_Foresight_in_governments.pdf&ei=bKbBUtbGKI2tkAf X8oCwDQ&usg=AFQjCNEwRvI5ub_YptwsbkdpEZiuX3ZQvw&bvm=bv.58187178,d.cWc Foresight for Government, David M. Walker, http://www.wfs.org/futurist/foresight- for-government Creating Strategic Foresight in Government, John M. Kamensky, http://www.businessofgovernment.org/blog/business-government/creating-strategic- foresight-government Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times, Ian Wilson and Bill Ralston, http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Handbook-Developing- Strategies/dp/0324312857/ref=pd_sim_b_2 Scenario Planning in Organizations – How to create, use and assess scenarios, Thomas J Chermack, http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Organizations-Berrett- Koehler-Organizational/dp/1605094137
- 42. Davos 2013: Resilience as a 21st Century Imperative, Arianna Huffington, http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130122234855-143695135-davos- 2013-resilience-as-a-21st-century-imperative?trk=vsrp_influencer_content_res_name &trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A1254205651390819108605%2CVSRPtargetId%3A10890%2 CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary&_mSplash=1 Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, U.S. National Intelligence Council, http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council- global-trends Practicing Strategic Foresight in Government – the cases of Finland, Singapore and the European Union (monograph), Tuomo Kuosa, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2011, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs/Monograph19.pdf MetaScan 2: Building Resilience in the Transition to a Digital Economy and a Networked Society, Policy Horizons Canada, http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/ building-resilience-transition-digital-economy-and-networked-society MetaScan 3: Emerging technologies, Policy Horizons Canada, http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/metascan-3-emerging-technologies-0
- 43. Intelligence, Strategic Warning and Foresight: Completing the Package for Decision- Makers, John M. Schmidt, IALEIA Journal of Intelligence Analysis, 22-2, April 2015 Special Edition: Intelligence Canaries: Applications in Strategic Early Warning – Towards a New Intelligence Analysis Paradigm, http://www.ialeia.org/images/Journal/ JIA%2022-2%20Abstracts.pdf Policy, Planning, Intelligence and Foresight in Government Organizations, John M. Schmidt, Foresight (Emerald), 17-5, August 2015 (in print)
- 44. Discussion
- 45. John M Schmidt jjjs@rogers.com or via LinkedIn