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Karlsson timo

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Karlsson timo

  1. 1. Indirect detection of ice on wind turbine blades Timo Karlsson, VTT Operating Principle Detection accuracy Wind turbine icing is a significant problem for wind power The main metrics used to compare different methods were applications in cold climate conditions. Icing can cause fatigue detection accuracy and speed. In the simulated datasets in turbine components, shortening the lifetime of the turbine and detection accuracy can be calculated as a percentage of can cause immediate production losses. This work presents one correctly detected iced data points and speed is evaluated as approach to ice detection indirectly, without additional sensors. number of steps between the start of an icing event and the first Ice is detected by monitoring changes in turbine behaviour. issued alarm. All the methods used here follow a similar two-step approach: The detection accuracy and speed depend on the severity of First a baseline relationship between wind and different process icing and the wind speed during the icing incident. Best variables is determined using historical data. Then real-time accuracy can be achieved at wind speeds at around 50 - 80 % measurements are compared to the historical baseline. Possible of the rated wind speed. icing events are identified by monitoring the differences between the predetermined baseline and the measurements. The drop in accuracy at low and high wind speeds happens because the used process variables have smaller relative Ice detection methods deviation from the reference dataset at these wind speeds. Also at lower speeds the signal to noise ratio is high enough to have The distance between current measurement and the reference an effect. dataset is calculated using five different statistical process control methods. The multivariate methods used make it At best, when using simulated data at appropriate wind speed possible to compare behaviour of multiple variables these methods can reach 90% accuracy, but only with simulated simultaneously and also take the correlations between different data with very little noise. variables into account. The methods operate solely based on historical data. The same Correctly detected icing events in the Time to first alarm in the medium wind methods can be used on different types of turbines with very medium wind test case test case minimal changes. 100 16 90 14 80 12 The result is a simple signal representing the state of the wind 70 S 10 turbine, higher signal values correspond with higher probability 60 MEWMA a m MEWMA % 50 p 8 of icing. CUSUM MCUSUM l CUSUM MCUSUM 40 e 6 PCA s PCA 30 kNN kNN 4 Ice Warning signal in simulated test case, icing event starts at 60 stops at 120 20 2 1200 10 icing starts icing stops 0 0 Start of icing Light Icing Moderate Start of icing Light Icing Moderate 1000 Icing Icing Ice Case Ice cases 800 Detection statistics of the best case scenario from the simulation study. During these runs, wind speed was between 8 and 11 m/s. 600 400 Testing with real data 200 Alarm Limit The approach was tested on a real dataset collected from two 0 0 50 100 150 200 turbines in northern Finland over two years. The system can spot likely icing events but introduces a number of false positive Example of the behaviour of the ice warning signal during an icing incident in a simulated alarms in the process as well. case. The beginning and the end of the ice incident are marked on the graph. An icing alarm is issued for each timestep the value of the signal is above the alarm limit. When comparing the warnings produced by the methods introduced here to a commercial ice sensor, there does not seem Simulation tests to be a very strong correlation between the two. There are simultaneous warnings but neither method was conclusive. The methods were tested against a dataset produced using FAST and the NREL reference 5 MW turbine model. The tests More work needs to be done to improve the detection accuracy were run in several icing cases in different wind conditions in when dealing with real world data, but the preliminary result look order to gauge the effectiveness of the approach. Performance useful. was evaluated against different ice cases and different wind scenarios for five different methods.

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