http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook The Europe and Central Asia region suffered a significant economic slowdown in 2012 as the region faced significant headwinds, including weak external demand, deleveraging by European banks, poor harvest and inflationary pressures. As a result, growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012, compared with 5.6 percent in 2011 with a sharp slowdown in developing Europe and less severe adjustments among Commonwealth of Independent States.

1. 1
Dilek Aykut
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Europe & Central Asia
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.

3. Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.

4. Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.

5. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Industrial production data suggest a
rebound in economic activity in the region
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
Kazakhstan
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Europe & Central Asia
IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar

6. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Industrial production data suggest a
rebound in economic activity in the region
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
Kazakhstan
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Europe & Central Asia
IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar

7. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar

8. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar

9. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar

10. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar

11. Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar

12. Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
12
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion

13. Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
13
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion

14. Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
14
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion

15. -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2010
Developing Europe grows at potential
rate but output gap remains
15
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.

16. -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2010
Developing Europe grows at potential
rate but output gap remains
16
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.

17. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
17
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.

18. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
18
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.

19. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
19
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.

20. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
20
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.

21. 21
Dilek Aykut
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Europe & Central Asia
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook