Rachid Moussadek (INRA Morocco)

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Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Change in Africa:
the Answers from Science
Johannesburg, October, 25th, 2018
Rachid Moussadek & Rachid Mrabet
INRA Morocco
rachidmoussadek@yahoo.fr
Key threats to soils in Africa
Two thirds of Africa’s arable lands could be lost by 2025 because of
the negative impact of climate change.
Soil: At the Heart of Water and Food Security Nexus
Soil erosion, loss of soil organic carbon, and nutrient imbalance
(depletion)
The continent loses 3% of agricultural GDP
annually from soil and nutrient loss on
farmlands

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Vast majority of Africa’s farms are small and family
operated
Mean size
(ha)
% < 2 ha
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 69
West Asia - North
Africa
4.9 65
South Asia 1.4 78
East Asia 1.0 79
SE Asia 1.8 57
Central America 10.7 63
South America 111.7 36
Europe 32.3 30
USA 178.4 4
Eastwood et al., 2009
Africa has 33 million family
farms of less than 2 hectares,
accounting for more than
65 % of farms
Women are the backbone of
agriculture in Africa
Only 3% of farms have more
than 10 hectares
Yield Gaps Persist
ERS (2013)
Yield reduction in Africa due to past soil erosion may range
from 2 to 40%, with a mean loss of 8.2% for the continent.

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Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity Are Likely to Be
Strongly Negative Overall – and African Agriculture Highly Vulnerable
Source: UNEP/GRID-ArendalMaps and Graphics Library, Wheeler 2011
Projected Changes in Agricultural Productivity by 2080
Agricultural productivity will come under pressure from Climate Change, with large parts
of Africa expected to experience downward yield pressure of above 15%.
Sub-Saharan Africa will be
hit particular hard.
It is estimated that across
Africa maize yields will drop
by 5% and wheat yields by
17% before 2050.
Knox et al. 2012
Future impacts vary by region
Need for Adaptation
Crop-level adaptations increase simulated
yields by an average of 7–15%, with
adaptations more effective for wheat and
rice than maize.
Challinor et al. 2014
Consensus on
yield decreases
is stronger in
tropical than
temperate
regions,

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND YIELD REDUCTION IN AFRICA
BY 2050
Crop Region Reduction (%) Reference
Maize Africa 10 Jones and Thornton
(2003)
Food crops West
Africa
11 Roudier et al. (2011)
Food crops Sahel 18 Roudier et al. (2011)
Maize SSA 5 Chijioke et al. (2011)
Wheat SSA 22 Chijioke et al. (2011)
Rice SSA 2 Chijioke et al. (2011)
Yam/ Sweet
potato
SSA 12 Chijioke et al. (2011)
Cassava SSA 8 Chijioke et al. (2011)
Sorghum/ Millet SSA (+1-2) Chijioke et al. (2011)
• The effect of CO2 fertilization is less on C-4 crops
• Inter-annual variability in yield will increase
African Agriculture at Cross Road
• Double its production
by 2030 and triple it by
2050.
• Zero hunger by 2025
(food available needs to be
increased by 47 percent of
current demand.)
• Developing agriculture
while protecting the
continent’s natural
resources depends on
sustainable intensification.
• Effective and sustainable
intensification efforts must
be geared to family farmers.
• Local markets are the main
and most dynamic
destination for agricultural
producers.

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Climate Resilient Agriculture in Africa
Coupling and hybridizing
– Sustainable Intensification (SI): 4 for 100 per year of increased
production is necessary
– Sustainable expansion of croplands to increase by 1.5 percent or by
38.9 million hectares.
60% of the planet’s unexploited arable lands are
found in Africa, but land must be protected from
degradation and exhaustion
High potential in irrigated agriculture
Rainfed agriculture produces 90% of SSA’s staple food needs... ...and irrigated
supply provides only 5%

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African (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions « (I)NDC
analysis »: Adaptation measures
CSA= Climate Smart Agriculture
SLM = Sustainable Land Management
AF = Agroforestery
AE = Agro-ecology
Plans and policies are in progress for widening appropriation
by farmers of resilience
21
20
15
85
21
20
15
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
CSA
AF
AE
SLM
Countries Projects
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/73255
Richards et al., 2016
Agroforestry systems:
Cost-effective solutions to Climate Resilience
Beyond significant cocoa
production, Cocoa agroforestry
systems in Cameroun provide
wood, fruits, medicine and a
variety of ecological services.
REDD+ or AFOLU CONCEPTS Mbow et al., 2013
Maize Growing under Faidherbia Albida Trees in Tanzania

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Agroforestry and Soil Carbon Sequestration Rates
kg C ha−1 yr−1
World Bank 2012
Conservation Agriculture (CA)
is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems for
improved and sustained productivity, increased profits
and food security while preserving and enhancing the
resource base and the environment
① Minimizing soil disturbance, consistent with sustainable production.
② Maximizing soil surface cover by managing crops, pastures and crop
residues.
③ Stimulating biological activity through crop rotations, cover crops
and integrated nutrient and pest management.

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Conservation agriculture holds great
promise for Africa
Conservation agriculture holds great
promise for Africa
Kassam et al, 2017
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
AreainHectars
Year
Conservation Agriculture
• Yield increase
• Reduced Gaps
• Reduced
production costs
• Farmer incomes
• Resource
efficiency
• Energy
efficiency
• Drought
mitigation
• Erosion
reduction
• Ecosystem
services
• High
biodiversity
Coping technologies to lower/sporadic rainfall, floods and
rising temperatures.
2.7 million ha
157 million ha
in the world
Closing the yield gaps with CA
Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia,
Kenya and Tanzania
Corbeels, M., et al., 2013
Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture
Increased productivity (for
small, medium and large scale farmers).
Savings in labour (up to 60%).
yield CT = 0,0033 Rainfall + 1,4116
R2
= 0,1823
yield NT = 0,0028 Rainfall + 2,01
R2
= 0,1457
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Rainfall (mm)
GrainYield(Mg/ha)
No-tillage
Conventional Tillage
Mrabet, 2011
Morocco

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Internalizing benefits from environmental
preservation
Carbon sequestration with CA
Ben Moussa Machraoui et al. 2010
Tunisia
Sub-Sahara Africa:
0.28 and 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1
Powlson et al. 2016
Potential SOC fixed annually by CA
compared to systems based on soil
tillage in Africa
145 Mt C per year =
533 Mt of
CO2 per
year
Almost 3 times
Europe’s
potential!
c
o2
González-Sánchez et al., 2018

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Zai Pit indigenous system
Young sorghum grown in Zai pits in Burkina
Faso(©FAO)
Figure1: Zai Pit System
West African countries: Burkina Faso,
Mali and Niger but also in Kenya -
Nigeria
African Innovation:
the key to farming system
adaptation
Combining Zai & Fertilizer
In Niger, planting millet in Zai with inorganic
fertilizer multiplied the yield by four (from 144
kg/ha to 659 kg/ha) – and by ten in a good
rainfall year (1,486 kg/ha).
Figure1: Zai Pit System

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CHANGE IN 2050 IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF HUNGER, RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE
SCENARIO, AFTER ADOPTION OF IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES
Rosegrant et al. (2014)Zero-tillage is the best option for wheat
Trade-Offs Between Profitability and Carbon Sequestration of SLM
Technologies
World Bank 2012

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Science Based SLM up-scaling:
Gateways for expanding knowledge
Nexus Thinking
Vertical thinking and
thematic research
Integrated multi-component
approach
Nexus Approach
Time & Space Scales
Livelihoods
Trade-offs
Pathways
Policy shifts Ecological functions
Revision and transformation of old concepts
Broadening scopes and objectives From participative to partnership process
Plot Research Pilot & Plateforme Research & Development
KEY MESSAGES
Adapting agriculture to CC
– Enforcing research (long term SLM trials), technology transfer
and extension systems to generate SLM knowledge,
developments and innovations
– Developing knowledge and access to robust technologies and soil
information as well as enhancing skills for all stakeholders.
– Developing and marketing indigenous knowledge related to SLM.
– Identifying the policy space for agriculture resilience: defining and
allocating responsibilities.
– Sustaining links among governments, research and extension
offices, NGOs and civil society, private sector and farmers
communities.
– Implementing national and regional level efforts to extend and
scale-up CSA, SFM and AF…

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Thank you
Adapting Agriculture to Climate change
in Africa: the answers from science
Rachid Moussadek & Rachid Mrabet
INRA Morocco
rachidmoussadek@yahoo.fr