3. HINDSIGHT BIAS
(I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)
It does not mean that your common sense (if
you have such) is wrong.
Our intuitive sense more easily describe what
JUST HAPPENED than what WILL HAPPEN in the
future.
Natural tendency toward OVERCONFIDENCE
Perception of ORDER IN RANDOM EVENTS
FALSE ASSUMPTIONS
4. That is why we have…
…psychological research,
experimentation,
scientific inquiry,
to help us to get around these problems
that basically save the study of our minds
from the stupidity of our minds.
6. SCIENTIFIC METHOD
1. Question & a theory (what explains and
organizes lots of different observations and
predicts outcomes)
2. Hypothesis, testable prediction
3. Test with a replicable experiment
7. REPLICATION
Watching a person exhibit a certain
behavior once and it won’t prove very
much.
BUT(T)!
Getting consistent results even as you
change subjects and/or situations, you’re
prolly onto something
8. CASE STUDIES
Take an in-depth look at one individual
Can be misleading; can’t be replicated; run the risk
of overgeneralizing
Good at showing us what can happen; frame
questions for more extensive, generalizable studies
Great story-telling device psychologists use to
observe & describe human behavior
Rare cases
9. NATURALISTIC OBSERVATION
Researchers watch behavior in a natural
environment
To let the subjects do their “thing” without
trying to manipulate them or control the
situation
Great at describing behavior, limited in
explaining it
10. SURVEYS & INTERVIEWS
Asking people to report their opinions or
behaviors
Alfred Kinsey (Published Sexual Behavior in
the Human Male & Sexual Behavior in the
Human Female)
A great way to access people’s
consciously-held attitudes and beliefs
11. ISSUES IN QUESTIONS IN
SURVEYS
What words are used?
ban & censor vs. limit & not allow
Do you believe in space aliens?
Do you think that there is intelligent life
somewhere in the universe?
Who to ask?
Representativeness of sample
Random sampling – equal chance to be
selected to answer a question
Sampling bias
13. EXPERIMENTS
Allow investigators to isolate different effects to
a dependent variable by manipulating an
independent variable, and keeping other
variables constant.
Experimental group
Control group
Random assignment
Placebo
Double-blind procedure